The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Gavin Feng]

 

 

[DAJK]

Honestly, 36M would be great for Red One, given how bad it looks lol.

[Maggie]

2 minutes ago, Gavin Feng said:

 

 

Not bad. I hope it goes higher. This is Amazon, right? I like that they send some movies to theaters, unlike Netflix. Hopefully they are more successful than Apple

[Belakor]

Just now, Maggie said:

Not bad. I hope it goes higher. This is Amazon, right? I like that they send some movies to theaters, unlike Netflix. Hopefully they are more successful than Apple

Because they are bloating the budgets like crazy, they are worse than Disney managing budgets and expenses for their productions. It's not that they like to do it.

[filmlover]

Red One's early sales for that 11/10 showing are pretty solid near me. The movie doesn't look especially good, but the combo of star power and being by far the most accessible seasonal offering for the holidays this year should allow for it to find an audience since it'll be around until the Christmas rush (adding the qualifiers of being an Amazon title of course, this is naturally going to be a loss leader the same way the Apple major studio releases were).

[Mojoguy]

9 minutes ago, Gavin Feng said:

 

 

Would be shocked at that number. Was expecting $20m OW or less.

[CJohn]

I doubt it does 36M total, let alone 36M OW.

[filmlover]

Just now, CJohn said:

I doubt it does 36M total, let alone 36M OW.

If Argylle managed to make $45M total despite being a massive turd I doubt this is going lower than that.

[justnumbers]

I think the only chance for this movie to at least do well in a vacuum is if The Rock just goes out with a Voss piss bottle marketing campaign and he appears taking a piss on the bottle and explaining why it's the best place to take a piss.

[vale9001]

Both the Jumanji of the same director had incredible legs. Calling the movies weak or bad as you want but the audience loved them. 

[filmlover]

3 minutes ago, justnumbers said:

I think the only chance for this movie to at least do well in a vacuum is if The Rock just goes out with a Voss piss bottle marketing campaign and he appears taking a piss on the bottle and explaining why it's the best place to take a piss.

Nah, a movie that's actually out in theaters right now has already scratched the Gratuitous Voss Product Placement itch for 2024.

[keysersoze123]

23 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Honestly, 36M would be great for Red One, given how bad it looks lol.

I dont know. it looks like dumb fun headlined by big stars and releasing at the right time. Movie about Santa and market is empty as well. I wont be surprised if it goes even higher. 

[vafrow]

37 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Going to see Here but honestly not surprised that it's looking to be a nonstarter. It just seems like a very difficult movie to market given how weird (Hanks and Wright de-aged and aged-up by decades via CGI!) and gimmicky (the camera sits in one spot the whole movie as it travels through time!) the whole thing comes off as. Too much of a "cinematic experiment" vibe, reviews will make or break it as to what its numbers will look like (it premieres at AFI tomorrow).

 

It's pitch is basically "Here's Tom Hanks in something sentimental".

 

It's a good test of what his current star power is. In the last few years, he's driven smaller projects to decent success that wouldn't have got there without him with A Man Called Otto and Asteroid City.

 

But for both of those movies, I think those films could find some success with an alternate actor. AC was a Wes Anderson film with Hanks as a value added element.

 

Otto is harder. Seemed like a perfect Hanks role but offered an interesting story. Hollywood has enough cranky old actors that someone could make it work.

 

Here has nothing. The concept isn't that interesting. If Hanks wasn't in it, no one would distribute it. It would be a low key streaming dump.

[WebSurfer]

52 minutes ago, Gavin Feng said:

 

 

The hell were they thinking with that budget???

[filmlover]

16 minutes ago, WebSurfer said:

The hell were they thinking with that budget???

Same reason the Apple movies are so expensive probably: they were given the green light as streaming exclusives with the backend deals being paid upfront, that switched gears for a theatrical run to give them a sense of "legitimacy" that people often say these streaming service titles lack. They know they aren't making that money back, but they won't be seen as a bomb in the same sense that Joker 2 will be since they were given the green light as loss leaders.

[Ryan C]

18 hours ago, Ryan C said:

 

Venom: The Last Dance

 

T-1

 

Thursday: 4,774 Seats Sold (13.4% Increase From Last Time)

From 16 Theaters 

 

Taken as of 7:15 PM Eastern Time

 

IMPORTANT NOTES: The percentage would've been a bit higher as I'm tracking this a few hours earlier than expected, but this still isn't really pointing towards this hitting the current $65M projections for the weekend. It's gonna need a really strong final day and great walk-up business over the weekend to overcome the pessimistic projections. 

 

Not really expecting the weak reviews to affect this one though. Like the Jurassic World franchise, the Venom movies are clearly critic-proof and don't need their high approval like other comic-book movies do. 

 

We'll see how this does tomorrow (I'll track it just before the first Thursday preview showings start), but this better pick up pace fast. 

 

Venom: The Last Dance

 

T-0

 

Thursday: 5,747 Seats Sold (20.3% Increase From Last Time)

From 16 Theaters

 

Taken as of 2:20 PM Eastern Time

 

IMPORTANT NOTES: Nearly 1,000 seats were sold between the last time I tracked this. Though a 20% increase from yesterday is probably not enough to make this comfortably hit its current $65M projections, this does bode well for walk-up business for the rest of today and going into the weekend. 

 

To make a prediction for Thursday previews, I'd go with anywhere between $7.5M at the low end and $8.5M at the high end. Maybe it manages to get itself to $9M, but that would require a lot of good walk-up business tonight. It's entirely possible, but it'll probably have a preview number closer to Black Adam ($7.6M) than Venom ($10M) or Venom: Let There Be Carnage ($11.6M)

 

I also have to imagine that the Thursday-Sunday multiplier will be weaker than the first two films (especially with previews starting really early at 2:00 PM). It won't be in the levels of The Flash or Joker: Folie a Deux, but I'm guessing a multiplier that's somewhere between 6.5x and 7x. Either one wouldn't be perfect, but it'll guarantee a weekend of at least $55M or more if its preview number ends up on the high end. 

 

$55M is probably not the opening number that Sony or us wanted this film to open to, but that's where I feel like this is gonna end up. Maybe it'll go crazy over the weekend, but this is looking like to be a pretty underwhelming debut for what's supposed to be the finale of this trilogy. 

 

Overall, I hope business will pick up in a big way over the weekend, but it's gonna be really tough for it to hit those $65M projections. 

[Shawn Robbins]

2 hours ago, AniNate said:

Tell that to @Shawn Robbins

 

Don't need to. 

 

Looking more like under $7m in this week's update going out tomorrow, and I won't be surprised if that drops a bit more next week. Leaving some room in case it happens to get some attention via Hanks and the Otto crowd. Gotta remember this isn't the kind of movie that's going to show any life in pre-sales in many scenarios. Older people aren't pre-buying for a movie they're likely to stream. Saturday Night showed us that, unfortunately, and Here leans even more heavily toward the 45-plus crowd.

[AniNate]

 

[kayumanggi]

 

[kayumanggi]

47 fewer locations from the initial estimate.

Edited 18 hours ago by kayumanggi