The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Boxofficerules]

Is Saw X looking bad?

[katnisscinnaplex]

21 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Haunting Venice	T-6	Jax	6	22	33	33	4,862	0.68%
		Phx	5	14	28	28	3,168	0.88%
		Ral	7	19	38	38	2,528	1.50%
	Total		18	55	99	99	10,558	0.94%
Haunting Venice (EA)	T-5	Jax	1	1	6	6	205	2.93%

 

Haunting T-6 comps

 - Elvis - .273x (873k)

 - Glass Onion - .213x (426k)

 - Creed III - .301x (1.34m)

 - Death on the Nile - missed

 - Knock at the Cabin - .773x (1.12m)

 - Beast - 2.02x (1.87m)

 - 65 - 1.435x (1.76m)

 - Crawdads - .372x (744k)

 

Average adjusted comps - 1.4m

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Haunting Venice	T-5	Jax	6	22	11	44	4,862	0.90%
		Phx	5	14	7	35	3,168	1.10%
		Ral	8	21	2	40	2,686	1.49%
	Total		19	57	20	119	10,716	1.11%
Haunting Venice (EA)	T-4	Jax	1	1	0	6	205	2.93%

 

Haunting T-5 comps

 - Elvis - .285x (913k)

 - Glass Onion - .237x (474k)

 - Creed III - .312x (1.39m)

 - Death on the Nile - missed

 - Knock at the Cabin - .856x (1.24m)

 - Beast - 2.052x (1.9m)

 - 65 - 1.469x (1.8m)

 - Crawdads - .377x (753k)

 

Average adjusted comps - 1.42m

[katnisscinnaplex]

21 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Creator	T-20	Jax	5	24	17	17	3,145	0.54%
		Phx	5	10	7	7	1,510	0.46%
		Ral	6	12	16	16	1,778	0.90%
	Total		16	46	40	40	6,433	0.62%
Creator (EA)	T-19	Jax	2	3	0	0	689	0.00%
Paw Patrol 2 (OD)	T-21	Jax	5	21	6	6	2,356	0.25%
		Phx	5	15	1	1	2,756	0.04%
		Ral	6	26	12	12	3,808	0.32%
	Total		16	62	19	19	8,920	0.21%

 

The Creator T-20 comps

 - Knock at the Cabin - .784x (1.14m)

 - Black Phone - .769x (2m)

 - Dungeons and Dragons - .69x (2.83m)

 

Paw Patrol 2 (OD) T-21 comps

 - Minions 2 (Previews) - .157x (1.69m)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Creator	T-19	Jax	5	24	3	20	3,145	0.64%
		Phx	5	10	0	7	1,510	0.46%
		Ral	6	12	1	17	1,778	0.96%
	Total		16	46	4	44	6,433	0.68%
Creator (EA)	T-18	Jax	2	3	2	2	689	0.29%
Paw Patrol 2 (OD)	T-20	Jax	5	21	7	13	2,356	0.55%
		Phx	6	21	0	1	3,264	0.03%
		Ral	6	25	2	14	3,707	0.38%
	Total		17	67	9	28	9,327	0.30%

 

The Creator T-19 comps

 - Knock at the Cabin - .846x (1.23m)

 - Black Phone - missed

 - Dungeons and Dragons - .595x (2.44m)

 

Paw Patrol 2 (OD) T-20 comps

 - Minions 2 (Previews) - .201x (2.17m)

[katnisscinnaplex]

21 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Exorcist 6	T-28	Jax	5	34	6	18	6,046	0.30%
		Phx	6	24	10	23	5,465	0.42%
		Ral	7	27	0	6	4,153	0.14%
	Total		18	85	16	47	15,664	0.30%

 

Exorcist T-28 comps

 - Nope - .27x (1.73m)

 - Knock at the Cabin - 1.42x (2.07m)

 - Scream VI - .217x (1.23m)

 

*Yesterday was overreported due to error.  It has been corrected.

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Exorcist 6	T-27	Jax	5	34	2	20	6,046	0.33%
		Phx	6	24	1	24	5,465	0.44%
		Ral	7	27	2	8	4,153	0.19%
	Total		18	85	5	52	15,664	0.33%

 

Exorcist T-27 comps

 - Nope - missed

 - Knock at the Cabin - 1.49x (2.15m)

 - Scream VI - .195x (1.11m)

[katnisscinnaplex]

21 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Taylor Swift	T-35	Jax	6	67	49	4,124	10,651	38.72%
		Phx	6	74	45	7,523	12,124	62.05%
		Ral	8	75	55	4,786	9,512	50.32%
	Total		20	216	149	16,433	32,287	50.90%

 

Comps against T-1 hr sales

 - NWH - .474x (23.69m)

 - Dr Strange - .712x (25.64m)

 - BP2 - .929x (26.02m)

 - Thor 4 - 1x (29.11m)

 - Ant-Man 3 - 1.706x (29.86m)

 - Barbie - 1.44x (30.53m)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Taylor Swift	T-34	Jax	6	67	25	4,149	10,651	38.95%
		Phx	7	78	30	7,553	12,422	60.80%
		Ral	8	75	19	4,805	9,512	50.52%
	Total		21	220	74	16,507	32,585	50.66%

 

Comps against T-1 hr sales

 - NWH - .476x (23.8m)

 - Dr Strange - .715x (25.75m)

 - BP2 - .934x (26.14m)

 - Thor 4 - 1.01x (29.24m)

 - Ant-Man 3 - 1.714x (30m)

 - Barbie - 1.45x (30.67m)

 

For those wondering about sales decreasing... from someone who still opens every seating chart - Fandango doesn't always tag blocked seats.   For instance, one screen in Phoenix has had an entire row (16 seats) marked out for every show, but they are coded as tickets sold.  I know to take these out from seeing them so often.  Well, yesterday they fixed the seats at the theater and now they show as available again.  If I had been counting them as sold tickets, I would have lost 32 tickets.  Just something to be aware of when using scrapers.  @TheFlatLannister @Porthos @vafrow

[M37]

19 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Taylor Swift Eras Tour  MTC1 Friday (T - 36) - 494076/760680 10444270.64 4482 shows

 

Someething really weird that friday presales fell off the cliff. I ran again this morning and its at 494344. It does not even have refunds. I looked at Day 2 and it seems more in line. May be all good seats in prime time shows are near sellouts and it needs new shows to grow going forward or its an anomaly for a day. We will know today.

 

Taylor Swift Eras Tour MTC1 Sat - 400655/1564544 8642785.95 9023 shows

 

For some context, I went back and pulled the numbers @ZackM posted for Barbenheimer's opening weekend at MTC1. Here's the sales for Friday evening, from 6PM and later only, for those films:

• Barbie = 357.6K / 464.2K = 77% capacity
• Oppy = 204.1K / 300.9K = 68% capacity
• TOTAL = 561.7K / 765.0K = 73.4% total capacity across MTC1

Notice that Eras already has as many MTC1 seats allocated as Barbenheimer did for that opening Friday evening! and we're already up to 65% total capacity, and 88% of Barbenheimer's final sales from 6PM on ... with 5 weeks left to go before opening.

 

I'm just not sure all that many more Friday seats can be allocated given the start time, especially as those Eras screens will need to be filled M-Th by some other content. I doubt studios will agree to a M-Th only booking in dead weekdays October, will expect at least 2 shows on weekend, and Exorcist a full screen for week 2. So max like half of all screens can go to Eras, even less for Friday. [Unless theaters are just going to have empty screens during the week].  Also fwiw, Barbeheimer had ~1.9M total seats at MTC1 for Saturday (though Barbie's shorter running time probably helped boost that total), and here Eras already has 1.56M allocated

 

13 hours ago, abracadabra1998 said:

And one final comp:

16.47x Barbie EA ONLY at T-17 (which had around 53% occupancy as well): $18.1 Million

 

@M37 what you said earlier gave me this idea, though I don't think this was exactly what you meant. You suggested comparing MTC1 Barbie EA with MTC1 Taylor so we could get an idea of what total gross from there would be, and then use some kind of ratio more or less to figure out total gross (correct me if I'm completely wrong). My problem is I don't know MTC1 only gross from the Barbie EA shows, only the total figure (the $1.1 Million mentioned earlier, thanks @Hilts). I do think that is a great idea, since for Barbie EA shows there were barely any walk-ups because of capacity issues, which will happen here as well. So I figured that comparing them when they are at similar occupancy rates might be some way to get around that. 

This being such a massive pre-sale heavy day of shows is why I brought up the Barbie Blow-Out and big EA shows, because projecting forward is not about pace (ie demand), but simply what showtime and seats people are willing to settle for just go on opening night.  For example, a typical big MCU film increases its Thursday sales by ~44% from T-1 to T-F at MTC1 (and even PLF heavy Oppy still managed +39%), While the Batman and TGM EA shows were only +5% and +14% respectively, and Barbie actually went negative due to >95% capacity and refunds [The MTC1 portion was over $400K btw]

 

Maxing out at a ballpark of say 800K seats and 75% capacity would be 600K total tickets, and current number is just shy of 500K. There just ain't a lot of room for growth, but 600K MTC1 tickets at the inflated ATP is still is still going to be a massive OD total (will get more into the weeds on those numbers at a later time)

[vafrow]

13 minutes ago, M37 said:

For some context, I went back and pulled the numbers @ZackM posted for Barbenheimer's opening weekend at MTC1. Here's the sales for Friday evening, from 6PM and later only, for those films:

• Barbie = 357.6K / 464.2K = 77% capacity
• Oppy = 204.1K / 300.9K = 68% capacity
• TOTAL = 561.7K / 765.0K = 73.4% total capacity across MTC1

Notice that Eras already has as many MTC1 seats allocated as Barbenheimer did for that opening Friday evening! and we're already up to 65% total capacity, and 88% of Barbenheimer's final sales from 6PM on ... with 5 weeks left to go before opening.

 

I'm just not sure all that many more Friday seats can be allocated given the start time, especially as those Eras screens will need to be filled M-Th by some other content. I doubt studios will agree to a M-Th only booking in dead weekdays October, will expect at least 2 shows on weekend, and Exorcist a full screen for week 2. So max like half of all screens can go to Eras, even less for Friday. [Unless theaters are just going to have empty screens during the week].  Also fwiw, Barbeheimer had ~1.9M total seats at MTC1 for Saturday (though Barbie's shorter running time probably helped boost that total), and here Eras already has 1.56M allocated

 

This being such a massive pre-sale heavy day of shows is why I brought up the Barbie Blow-Out and big EA shows, because projecting forward is not about pace (ie demand), but simply what showtime and seats people are willing to settle for just go on opening night.  For example, a typical big MCU film increases its Thursday sales by ~44% from T-1 to T-F at MTC1 (and even PLF heavy Oppy still managed +39%), While the Batman and TGM EA shows were only +5% and +14% respectively, and Barbie actually went negative due to >95% capacity and refunds [The MTC1 portion was over $400K btw]

 

Maxing out at a ballpark of say 800K seats and 75% capacity would be 600K total tickets, and current number is just shy of 500K. There just ain't a lot of room for growth, but 600K MTC1 tickets at the inflated ATP is still is still going to be a massive OD total (will get more into the weeds on those numbers at a later time)

 

Great analysis as always. Just one point of clarification, that after the initial Friday opening, Eras will be playing Thursday to Sunday. So, dead space to be filled is Monday to Wednesday.

 

I still contend this is actually a tough issue for the theatres. It's hard to balance showtimes in best of times. Trying to figure out what to do with empty screens during an already slow period will be tough.

 

I saw a rumor of Lionsgate doing a rerelease of the original Hunger Games that I have no idea if there's anything to it, but honestly, that's probably the type of strategy the studios should try. You can probably get some old releases on premium screens for some limited releases.

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

1 hour ago, M37 said:

For some context, I went back and pulled the numbers @ZackM posted for Barbenheimer's opening weekend at MTC1. Here's the sales for Friday evening, from 6PM and later only, for those films:

• Barbie = 357.6K / 464.2K = 77% capacity
• Oppy = 204.1K / 300.9K = 68% capacity
• TOTAL = 561.7K / 765.0K = 73.4% total capacity across MTC1

Notice that Eras already has as many MTC1 seats allocated as Barbenheimer did for that opening Friday evening! and we're already up to 65% total capacity, and 88% of Barbenheimer's final sales from 6PM on ... with 5 weeks left to go before opening.

 

 

Do we know the % of tickets Barbenheimer sold during the referenced timeframe above VS their total for true Friday? We can probably just apply a simple formula for OD estimates with that number, based on the capacity restrictions you outlined.

[filmlover]

3 hours ago, Boxofficerules said:

Is Saw X looking bad?

I don't see it much better than Spiral tbh. Franchise whose best days at the box office are obviously behind it and has the least going for it amid a glut of horror movies being released between now and end of October.

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

23 minutes ago, XXR's Eras Tour said:

 

Do we know the % of tickets Barbenheimer sold during the referenced timeframe above VS their total for true Friday? We can probably just apply a simple formula for OD estimates with that number, based on the capacity restrictions you outlined.

 

Answered my own question. Looks like 6PM+ made up about 54% of ticket sales for Barbenheimer. True Friday for them was $70.7M so 54% of ticket sales would amount to ~$38M but since evening ATP would have been higher than earlier showtimes, it's probably more like $43-45M for the 6PM+ shows. Once we adjust for TET's higher average ATP, we're probably looking at $55-65M for TET Friday depending on theatrical splits as a ratio of MTC1.

[Flip]

Haunting in Venice has IMAX early screenings today and on Wednesday, limited but selling well

[Relevation]

37 minutes ago, XXR's Eras Tour said:

 

Answered my own question. Looks like 6PM+ made up about 54% of ticket sales for Barbenheimer. True Friday for them was $70.7M so 54% of ticket sales would amount to ~$38M but since evening ATP would have been higher than earlier showtimes, it's probably more like $43-45M for the 6PM+ shows. Once we adjust for TET's higher average ATP, we're probably looking at $55-65M for TET Friday depending on theatrical splits as a ratio of MTC1.

I think you’re underestimating both the ATP bump from evening to matinee shows and just how much higher TET’s ATP is gonna be for Friday. Like I checked for SAT today at my theater and Barbie is going for $8.50 with matinee showtimes but a much higher $10.75 for evening showtimes, a bump of roughly 25%. Apply that to the $38M post-6PM FRI figure for Barbenheimer that you listed, and that yields instead a much higher $46-49M for Barbenheimer post-6PM FRI.

 

But TET’s still gonna have a higher ATP given how literally every ticket barring kids is going for over $20, and in some cases it’s going for up to $25. I’m gonna use my earlier FRI ATP estimate of $21.07 for TET which is assuming it hits capacity since it’s gonna get pretty damn close in the scenario we’re discussing. Barbie had an OW ATP of $12.65 and Oppenheimer had $13.65. Barbenheimer’s opening FRI had a split of 68% sales for Barbie and 32% sales for Oppenheimer so using that to average out the Barbenheimer FRI ATP, I get $12.97. Meaning if we use $12.97 for Barbenheimer and $21.07 for The Eras Tour, then TET tickets for the whole day are running a full 62.5% ahead of Barbenheimer. Even if the evening shows dial it back to around a 35-40% bump, that would still bring up the $46-49M total I mentioned for Barbenheimer earlier to a massive $62-69M FRI.

[jeffthehat]

23 hours ago, jeffthehat said:

 

Eras Malco Theaters T-35

 

Theater count - 24

Show count - 104

Seats sold - 4790

Total seats - 17486

% sold - 27.39

New sales - 122 (+2.6%)

 

Not slowing down here yet. Like @TheFlatLannister I'm seeing some sales declines at several theaters though, weird. 

 

Eras Malco Theaters T-34

 

Theater count - 24

Show count - 104

Seats sold - 4897

Total seats - 17486

% sold - 28.01%

New sales - 107 (+2.2%)

 

No new showtimes added yet. Must be a chain-wide decision. 

[vafrow]

Update for Canadian matinee showtimes

 

It looks like the other chain up here (Landmark Cinemas) has also removed its matinee shows from its site.

 

It's not a surprise, but, I'm still curious how both chains felt they had the greenlight to have earlier showtimes, when nothing was available in the states.

 

I'm also not seeing any increase in sales this morning. If all ticket holders were notified, you'd think the first thing they would do is buy new tickets. 

 

There's also a subreddit specifically for MTC4, and I've been checking to see if anyone came and complained about having their tickets cancelled, but haven't seen anything yet. Nor is there any recent references to Cineplex on the Taylor Swift subreddit that I can see.

 

I honestly would have thought that cancellations of this magnitude would have a bigger impact.

[Porthos]

3 minutes ago, vafrow said:

Update for Canadian matinee showtimes

 

It looks like the other chain up here (Landmark Cinemas) has also removed its matinee shows from its site.

 

It's not a surprise, but, I'm still curious how both chains felt they had the greenlight to have earlier showtimes, when nothing was available in the states.

 

I'm also not seeing any increase in sales this morning. If all ticket holders were notified, you'd think the first thing they would do is buy new tickets. 

 

There's also a subreddit specifically for MTC4, and I've been checking to see if anyone came and complained about having their tickets cancelled, but haven't seen anything yet. Nor is there any recent references to Cineplex on the Taylor Swift subreddit that I can see.

 

I honestly would have thought that cancellations of this magnitude would have a bigger impact.

 

Proof positive that even Canadians who happen to be Swifties are still extra chill. 👍

Edited September 9, 2023 by Porthos

[Tinalera]

21 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Just a note, opening day is Friday, October 13th. Not the Thursday.

 

Also, your numbers are presumably coming from the same national chain as mine and numbers align pretty well. I'm at 98 tickets per showtime. You're at 88. But, I'm guessing you've got more bigger theatres with multiple showtimes going on.

 

My average is being pulled up by theatres that have one evening showtime, that are almost sold out. They don't open for matinees.

 

At 7.5 showtimes per theatre, you've probably got a lot matinee shows with low numbers dragging it down a notch.

Thank you for correction on start time. Yea Im getting some 300 plus seat theatres in there. And like I said, slowly easing back in and Im having to manually count seats because A my phone doesnt like the Cineplex App, and B on their screen counts on website (on PC) don't show X amount of X sold anymore. So yea its kind of fun....lol

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

1 hour ago, vafrow said:

I honestly would have thought that cancellations of this magnitude would have a bigger impact.

Maybe it was all a computer glitch from the jump and none of the sales were real. That would explain the lack of interest/care.

[vafrow]

10 minutes ago, XXR's Eras Tour said:

Maybe it was all a computer glitch from the jump and none of the sales were real. That would explain the lack of interest/care.

 

That seems unlikely, as sales were in line with what you'd expect. Lower than evening shows, but still relatively busy in relation to overall business. As I took sales figures at hour 2 and hour 20, you could see sales being shifted to matinees when evening shows booked up.

 

They might not have notified people yet. It would be odd, but, not unreasonable.

 

I'm honestly really puzzled by the whole thing. But, it's still under 24 hours, and maybe few others have even noticed.

[abracadabra1998]

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Paw Patrol: The Mighty Movie (T-20):

Day: T-20	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 14 theaters	57	47	47	7146	0.66

 

Meant to get this set up yesterday (someone's gotta do it lol) but ended up not doing it and watching the first Nun movie instead (I think I would have had more fun setting up my sheets instead, in all honesty).

 

Comps:

0.52x Haunted Mansion: 1.61 Million

TMNT comp added next update

 

Not the best comps but they're the only family-targetted ones I have. Paw Patrol is its own thing in all honesty, with how young its target audience is, and this is a Friday release, so most comps aren't super great anyways.

[Hilts]

11 hours ago, Hilts said:

 

A Haunting In Venice							OK
Wednesday - 7pm - Early Access Screening
Day	Theatres	Showings	Sellouts	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
T-9	1	1	0	0	12	563	2.13%
T-8	1	1	0	2	14	563	2.49%
T-7	1	1	0	0	14	563	2.49%
T-6	1	1	0	1	15	563	2.66%
T-5	1	1	0	1	16	563	2.84%
Thursday - showings starting 6pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Sellouts	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
T-8	19	50	0	38	38	9,987	0.38%
T-7	19	50	0	14	52	9,987	0.52%
T-6	19	50	0	15	67	9,987	0.67%

 

Comps
No Hard Feelings					0.985x	=	$2.12m
Talk To Me					2.094x	=	$2.61m
The Meg 2: The Trench					0.705x	=	$2.26m
The Last Voyage Of The Demeter					2.161x	=	$1.62m
The Equalizer 3					0.372x	=	$1.41m
The Nun II					0.736x	=	$2.28m

 

Comp average = $2.05m

 

 

A Haunting In Venice							OK
Wednesday - 7pm - Early Access Screening
Day	Theatres	Showings	Sellouts	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
T-8	1	1	0	2	14	563	2.49%
T-7	1	1	0	0	14	563	2.49%
T-6	1	1	0	1	15	563	2.66%
T-5	1	1	0	1	16	563	2.84%
T-4	1	1	0	1	17	563	3.02%
Thursday - showings starting 6pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Sellouts	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
T-8	19	50	0	38	38	9,987	0.38%
T-7	19	50	0	14	52	9,987	0.52%
T-6	19	50	0	15	67	9,987	0.67%
T-5	19	50	0	20	87	9,987	0.87%

 

Comps
No Hard Feelings					1.024x	=	$2.20m
Talk To Me					1.891x	=	$2.35m
The Meg 2: The Trench					0.707x	=	$2.26m
The Last Voyage Of The Demeter					2.417x	=	$1.81m
The Equalizer 3					0.418x	=	$1.59m
The Nun II					0.861x	=	$2.67m

 

Comp average = $2.15m