The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

My rough calculations tell me Renaissance ATP will be about 18% higher than Eras.

Given the unusual announcement schedule and timing of tickets going on sale, it’s probably not worth trying to gauge demand for at least 12 to 16 hours.

[charlie Jatinder]

11 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Five Nights at Freddy's MTC1

Previews - 16121/156586 226408.41 1123 shows

Friday - 14175/234081 194955.03 1642 shows

 

Really strong start with low show count. 

It's weird how FRI is so good at MTC 1, in miniTC2 FRI is only a fraction of THU.

[SpiderByte]

There are people who are...wildly misinterpreting things in Twitter who are very convinced Swift and Killers of the Flower Moon will be like a Barbenheimer thing when....no.

[vale9001]

2 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:

There are people who are...wildly misinterpreting things in Twitter who are very convinced Swift and Killers of the Flower Moon will be like a Barbenheimer thing when....no.

They don't even came in the same week. One of the big reasons barbeinhmer happened was also for the same day release. 

[SpiderByte]

11 minutes ago, vale9001 said:

They don't even came in the same week. One of the big reasons barbeinhmer happened was also for the same day release. 

Also Flower Moon isn't looking at anything close to Oppenheimer was tracking. Even early on it was still clear it'd do well.

[Sparkle Jump Rope Queen]

15 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:

There are people who are...wildly misinterpreting things in Twitter who are very convinced Swift and Killers of the Flower Moon will be like a Barbenheimer thing when....no.

there will never be another barbenheimer 

[vale9001]

7 minutes ago, Sparkle Jump Rope Queen said:

there will never be another barbenheimer 

 

I wouldn't Say that. It can happen again, we can 't predict projects have not been announced yet. 

Certainly It's not happening with a concert and a movie. 

As i already said i think a same date release for Wonka and Napoleon, even if not at the level of gerwig + Nolan, would have be a fun combination (another Historical drama  from acclaimed director + another movie for "Kids" with a-list actor and from the director of Paddington, which was acclaimed by critics). So in a lower scale something similar to opp + Barbie. 

[TwoMisfits]

For comparison - Beyonce got 3 screens at each of my locals (1PLF, 2 reg at the PLF one) with 10 and 9 showings each.

 

Taylor started with 15/16 showings each (and 4 screens each), so Beyonce is an event booking, but not quite a Taylor event booking here at my Cinemarks.  

 

Although $22 tickets at reg shows and $25.50 for PLF here - she broke the $20 mental barrier, so we'll see how that works.  That might backfire.

[Sparkle Jump Rope Queen]

7 minutes ago, vale9001 said:

 

I wouldn't Say that. It can happen again, we can 't predict projects have not been announced yet. 

Certainly It's not happening with a concert and a movie. 

As i already said i think a same date release for Wonka and Napoleon, even if not at the level of gerwig + Nolan, would have be a fun combination (another Historical drama  from acclaimed director + another movie for "Kids" with a-list actor and from the director of Paddington, which was acclaimed by critics). So in a lower scale something similar to opp + Barbie. 

true that. but i just don't see them being as big as the barbenheimer moment was

[SpiderByte]

25 minutes ago, Sparkle Jump Rope Queen said:

there will never be another barbenheimer 

Well, there'll be counterprogramming, which is basically what Barbenheimer boils down to, but at the level of opening for both, probably not yes.

[jeffthehat]

On 10/1/2023 at 7:43 AM, jeffthehat said:

 

Eras Malco Theaters T-12 (two days of sales)

 

Theater count - 24

Show count - 106

Seats sold - 6320

Total seats - 17681

% sold - 35.7%

New sales - 166 (+2.7%)

3-day average of new sales - 83.7 tickets/day

 

Def trended up here. Seeing more action in 9/10 pm shows. Expect this chain will sell more in the second half of the presales window than the first. 

 

Comp at local Malco

 

Barbie T-2 hours (1.23x) - $27.5m / $39.8m ATP adjusted (+45%)

 

Eras Malco Theaters T-11

 

Theater count - 24

Show count - 106

Seats sold - 6446

Total seats - 17681

% sold - 36.5%

New sales - 126 (+2%)

3-day average of new sales - 97.3 tickets/day

 

Looks like an SNF bounce. Could also still be trending up.  

 

Comp at local Malco

 

Barbie T-2 hours (1.26x) - $28m/ $40.6m ATP adjusted (+45%)

 

 

Edited October 2, 2023 by jeffthehat

[SpiderByte]

There are a lot of people overestimating Flower Moon (not here but elsewhere) who misunderstand that a lot of its success is due to Nolan's name recognition. Even Tenet did well relative to the extreme circumstances it was released under. He's got goodwill for days. Which isn't to say Scorsese doesn't, but it's not at a blockbuster opening level

[filmlover]

10 hours ago, Bob Train said:

They are more likely to be able to get the cast promotion if they keep it in late November, so there is no need to move it. The Grinch and Ralph 2 co-existed in the same frame in 2018.

I get that but still, it's opening on a pretty crowded frame for wide releases that includes Hunger Games, Thanksgiving (could attract some decent biz), and Next Goal Wins (likely to be DOA between the weak reviews and packed marketplace). And then there's three wide releases (Wish, Napoleon, Saltburn) over the Thanksgiving holiday itself. Going to be a real battle for screen space over those few weeks.

[Valencia]

53 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:

There are a lot of people overestimating Flower Moon (not here but elsewhere) who misunderstand that a lot of its success is due to Nolan's name recognition. Even Tenet did well relative to the extreme circumstances it was released under. He's got goodwill for days. Which isn't to say Scorsese doesn't, but it's not at a blockbuster opening level

Scorsese has never been a box office draw like that.

 

Post 2000’s all his big stuff has consistently done about $185M-$300M WW even with Leo, with Wolf of Wall Street being a outlier and making it to $400M.

 

I wouldn’t expect KOTFM to be any different, and settle around $200M-$300M.

 

Can’t imagine it will be strong OS either due to the subject matter.

Edited October 2, 2023 by Valencia

[Taylor89]

2 hours ago, TwoMisfits said:

For comparison - Beyonce got 3 screens at each of my locals (1PLF, 2 reg at the PLF one) with 10 and 9 showings each.

 

Taylor started with 15/16 showings each (and 4 screens each), so Beyonce is an event booking, but not quite a Taylor event booking here at my Cinemarks.  

 

Although $22 tickets at reg shows and $25.50 for PLF here - she broke the $20 mental barrier, so we'll see how that works.  That might backfire.

 

 

Backfire in what way?

[Borobudur]

32 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:

There are a lot of people overestimating Flower Moon (not here but elsewhere) who misunderstand that a lot of its success is due to Nolan's name recognition. Even Tenet did well relative to the extreme circumstances it was released under. He's got goodwill for days. Which isn't to say Scorsese doesn't, but it's not at a blockbuster opening level

Also people forgot the whole Barbieheimer got out of control and give Oppenheimer a favour that nobody should expect to happen any time soon.

[TwoMisfits]

15 minutes ago, Taylor89 said:

 

 

Backfire in what way?

 

Breaks the mental price point most folks will pay - a price elasticity of demand thing. 

[Eric Prime]

Moderation

 

Not the Flower Moon not Swift thread. This whole discussion on them being the next Barbenheimer seems inappropriate for this thread.

[keysersoze123]

3 hours ago, across the Jat verse said:

It's weird how FRI is so good at MTC 1, in miniTC2 FRI is only a fraction of THU.

Very low show count does help with Friday sales. FYI OD previews ended at 18734. I think if they keep adding shows it may not stall as much as most movies. That said some of the predictions around this movie is going nuts. Its not a 100m opener or something crazy. half that number is also crazy strong :-)

 

I am just looking at Renaissance anecdotally(they are still queuing) and it looks really good. Let us not compare with Eras. its going to have a smaller release and Swift is at height of her popularity as well. That said Beyonce will see a huge OW as well. I wonder if they can go 1-2 for Q4 of this year :-)

[keysersoze123]

Renaissance thursday has less than half of what Eras got for its friday on its OD. Both these movies start their shows only at 6PM or later. So its presales wont be in the ballpark of Eras plus its having an earlier presales start. 

 

Still the numbers are looking really good looking in isolation. Studios wont be happy with these direct releases bypassing them making so much money :-)