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Shawn Robbins

The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

By Shawn Robbins, in Box Office Discussion

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Posted by katnisscinnaplex,

Presales Tracking Information   I guess this is as good of a time as any to share this sheet I've been putting together for the past few weeks.  It's a table of movies from the past few years with relevant pre-sales information (release date, sales date, sales window, previews gross, etc.)  @datpepper and I will try to keep it updated when ticket sales dates are announced for upcoming films to make those easier to find.     There are a few gaps in the sheet where I couldn't f

Pre Sale Data Google Doc

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Posted by XXR & Friends,

I’m sure I’ve done enough “reminding” at this point that this is the tracking thread and not a discussion thread. Take your predictions and commentary elsewhere. No more warnings on this subject.
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ThomasNicole Blockbuster

ThomasNicole

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, LegionGPT said:

He’s making a prediction that the OW will be biggest since WF based on the current PS stock&flow. He’s not saying that the current PS level is above every movie since WF (see @M37’s posts for more on that).

That seems insane, in order for Barbie to match WF opening it would need to sell considerable more tickets since it doesn’t have PFL’s or shows enough so far 

 

I think anything ~150M would be mindblowing already considering the context of the release along with other big movie

 

Of course is easy to get too excited about the projections, but for someone with certain level of relevancy to say that, is to make room to absurd disappointments 

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charlie Jatinder Global Phenomenon

charlie Jatinder

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, LegionGPT said:

He’s making a prediction that the OW will be biggest since WF based on the current PS stock&flow. He’s not saying that the current PS level is above every movie since WF (see @M37’s posts for more on that).

He isn't referring to nationwide sales but one specific sample. Just like Drafthouse, where sales are 2nd only to Thor & BP, may be higher I haven't checked.

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Joyous Legion Global Phenomenon

Joyous Legion

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, across the Jat verse said:

He isn't referring to nationwide sales but one specific sample. Just like Drafthouse, where sales are 2nd only to Thor & BP, may be higher I haven't checked.

I guess that makes even more sense but on the flip side even less meaningful

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rehpyc Indie Sensation

rehpyc

Posted
Posted
23 hours ago, rehpyc said:

T-4 MI7

JWD: 6.56M

JW4: 8.85M

AtSV: 8.30M

FX: 9.21M

Flash: 7.28M

IJ: 6.57M

 

*All comps take into account Tuesday's discounting

T-3 MI7

* All comps take into account Tuesday's discounting

 

JWD: 6.49M

JW4: 8.53M

AtSV: 8.07M

FX: 9.03M

Flash: 7.28M

IJ: 6.64M

 

Had to re-check Flash with being flat.. it moved down $73 🤨

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ZackM Box Office Gold

ZackM

Posted
Posted
On 7/6/2023 at 6:52 PM, ZackM said:

 

 

Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One
Alpha Chain
Premiere Night Seat Report: T-6 days
           
  Last Day 2 Days Ago 3 Days Ago 4 Days Ago 5 Days Ago
Showings Added 35 257 122 0 3
Seats Added 5,275 32,517 18,393 0 341
Seats Sold 3,710 2,199 1,595 1,562 1,220
           
7/5/2023 Theaters Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Pct. Sold
Total 428 3,138 42,817 613,121 6.98%
           
% of Seats Sold 100% 90%+ 80%+ 70%+ 60%+
# of Showings 0 1 2 11 35
           
ATP Gross        
$18.79 $804,531        

 

 

 

Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One Early Access
Alpha Chain
Premiere Night Seat Report: T-5 days
           
7/5/2023 Theaters Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Pct. Sold
Total 204 216 23,493 52,936 44.38%
           
ATP Gross        
$21.16 $497,112      

 

 

Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One
Alpha Chain
Premiere Night Seat Report: T-3 days
           
  Last Day 2 Days Ago 3 Days Ago 4 Days Ago 5 Days Ago
Showings Added 5 9 1 35 257
Seats Added 426 811 217 5,275 32,517
Seats Sold 4,502 4,079 3,528 3,710 2,199
           
7/8/2023 Theaters Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Pct. Sold
Total 428 3,153 54,926 614,575 8.94%
           
% of Seats Sold 100% 90%+ 80%+ 70%+ 60%+
# of Showings 0 2 4 19 57
           
ATP Gross        
$18.55 $1,018,877        

 

 

 

Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One Early Access
Alpha Chain
Premiere Night Seat Report: T-2 days
           
7/8/2023 Theaters Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Pct. Sold
Total 204 216 26,719 52,936 50.47%
           
ATP Gross        
$20.96 $560,030      

 

 

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Maggie Box Office Gold

Maggie

Posted
Posted
17 minutes ago, rehpyc said:

T-3 MI7

* All comps take into account Tuesday's discounting

 

JWD: 6.49M

JW4: 8.53M

AtSV: 8.07M

FX: 9.03M

Flash: 7.28M

IJ: 6.64M

 

Had to re-check Flash with being flat.. it moved down $73 🤨

These are mediocre, right? Paramount made a huge mistake with the schedule.

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ZackM Box Office Gold

ZackM

Posted
Posted
On 7/6/2023 at 6:54 PM, ZackM said:

 

Oppenheimer
Alpha Chain
Premiere Night Seat Report: T-15 days
           
  Last Day 2 Days Ago 3 Days Ago 4 Days Ago 5 Days Ago
Showings Added 0 6 8 0 7
Seats Added 0 1,407 1,920 0 945
Seats Sold 1,937 1,491 1,060 1,170 1,052
           
7/5/2023 Theaters Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Pct. Sold
Total 425 1,328 46,630 261,029 17.86%
           
% of Seats Sold 100% 90%+ 80%+ 70%+ 60%+
# of Showings 0 8 25 51 82
           
ATP Gross        
$19.45 $906,954        

 

Oppenheimer
Alpha Chain
Premiere Night Seat Report: T-12 days
           
  Last Day 2 Days Ago 3 Days Ago 4 Days Ago 5 Days Ago
Showings Added 19 4 1 0 6
Seats Added 3,036 820 55 0 1,407
Seats Sold 2,338 2,464 1,958 1,937 1,491
           
7/8/2023 Theaters Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Pct. Sold
Total 425 1,352 53,390 264,940 20.15%
           
% of Seats Sold 100% 90%+ 80%+ 70%+ 60%+
# of Showings 2 8 29 65 102
           
ATP Gross        
$19.30 $1,030,427        
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M37 Box Office Gold

M37

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Maggie said:

These are mediocre, right? Paramount made a huge mistake with the schedule.

No, they made a wise choice go earlier and grab as many IMAX days as possible, but the result will be to spread business out over 6+ days rather than 3.5, so daily numbers will be lower. Fallout made $89M over its fist full week + previews, MI7 could match or exceed that by Sunday

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Flip Box Office Gold

Flip

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, ZackM said:

 

Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One
Alpha Chain
Premiere Night Seat Report: T-3 days
           
  Last Day 2 Days Ago 3 Days Ago 4 Days Ago 5 Days Ago
Showings Added 5 9 1 35 257
Seats Added 426 811 217 5,275 32,517
Seats Sold 4,502 4,079 3,528 3,710 2,199
           
7/8/2023 Theaters Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Pct. Sold
Total 428 3,153 54,926 614,575 8.94%
           
% of Seats Sold 100% 90%+ 80%+ 70%+ 60%+
# of Showings 0 2 4 19 57
           
ATP Gross        
$18.55 $1,018,877        

 

 

 

Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One Early Access
Alpha Chain
Premiere Night Seat Report: T-2 days
           
7/8/2023 Theaters Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Pct. Sold
Total 204 216 26,719 52,936 50.47%
           
ATP Gross        
$20.96 $560,030      

 

 

Indy had 57k, so previews are behind but combined with early shows MI7 is ahead

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ZackM Box Office Gold

ZackM

Posted
Posted
On 7/6/2023 at 6:57 PM, ZackM said:

 

 

 

Barbie
Alpha Chain
Premiere Night Seat Report: T-15 days
           
  Last Day 2 Days Ago 3 Days Ago 4 Days Ago 5 Days Ago
Showings Added 14 4 15 1 25
Seats Added 1,510 468 2,643 168 4,453
Seats Sold 3,470 2,472 2,210 2,294 2,571
           
7/5/2023 Theaters Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Pct. Sold
Total 413 1,979 51,527 325,837 15.81%
           
% of Seats Sold 100% 90%+ 80%+ 70%+ 60%+
# of Showings 0 5 27 66 118
           
ATP Gross        
$16.54 $852,257        

 

 

 

Barbie Blowout Party: Early Access
Alpha Chain
Premiere Night Seat Report: T-14 days
           
7/5/2023 Theaters Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Pct. Sold
Total 108 108 17,892 20,668 86.57%
           
ATP Gross        
$21.26 $380,384      

 

 

 

Barbie
Alpha Chain
Premiere Night Seat Report: T-12 days
           
  Last Day 2 Days Ago 3 Days Ago 4 Days Ago 5 Days Ago
Showings Added 91 14 7 14 4
Seats Added 15,867 2,074 783 1,510 468
Seats Sold 4,217 3,932 4,039 3,470 2,472
           
7/8/2023 Theaters Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Pct. Sold
Total 413 2,091 63,715 344,561 18.49%
           
% of Seats Sold 100% 90%+ 80%+ 70%+ 60%+
# of Showings 1 8 44 95 174
           
ATP Gross        
$16.34 $1,041,103        

 

 

Barbie Blowout Party: Early Access
Alpha Chain
Premiere Night Seat Report: T-11 days
           
7/8/2023 Theaters Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Pct. Sold
Total 108 108 18,422 20,668 89.13%
           
ATP Gross        
$21.22 $390,915        
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Maggie Box Office Gold

Maggie

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 minute ago, keysersoze123 said:

Previews are okm thinking 8.5-9 previews including all early shows. But Wednesday being mid week is looking way weaker than Tuesday. As of today I am not seeing anything more than 50m fri-sun.

That sucks. It will come UNDER 90M total tracking in the end

Edited by Maggie
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Maggie Box Office Gold

Maggie

Posted
Posted
Just now, Bob Train said:

They should've just moved MI7 up to this weekend if they wanted more IMAX

I don't think lack of IMAX is the problem. The issue is that it's too close to Barbenheimmer and people are hyped for those and bought tickets for those two. Should have moved it to August

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emoviefan Box Office Gold

emoviefan

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, M37 said:

No, they made a wise choice go earlier and grab as many IMAX days as possible, but the result will be to spread business out over 6+ days rather than 3.5, so daily numbers will be lower. Fallout made $89M over its fist full week + previews, MI7 could match or exceed that by Sunday

Yeah I don't why we have to keep going over this.  Thinking that this movie is going have previews like a CMB or something on a Tuesday when the target audience is you know working,  is just dumb. It is 163 minutes long.  I am frothing at the bit to see this movie but I am not seeing it until saturday. Also the 7th movie in a franchise no matter how well received is not just going to blow up all of a sudden. 

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keysersoze123 Global Phenomenon

keysersoze123

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, ZackM said:

 

 

Barbie
Alpha Chain
Premiere Night Seat Report: T-12 days
           
  Last Day 2 Days Ago 3 Days Ago 4 Days Ago 5 Days Ago
Showings Added 91 14 7 14 4
Seats Added 15,867 2,074 783 1,510 468
Seats Sold 4,217 3,932 4,039 3,470 2,472
           
7/8/2023 Theaters Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Pct. Sold
Total 413 2,091 63,715 344,561 18.49%
           
% of Seats Sold 100% 90%+ 80%+ 70%+ 60%+
# of Showings 1 8 44 95 174
           
ATP Gross        
$16.34 $1,041,103        

 

 

Barbie Blowout Party: Early Access
Alpha Chain
Premiere Night Seat Report: T-11 days
           
7/8/2023 Theaters Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Pct. Sold
Total 108 108 18,422 20,668 89.13%
           
ATP Gross        
$21.22 $390,915        

Barbie pace way better than any movie released this year. But overall numbers are well below MCU. That said pace is more important if it can keep accelerating.

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keysersoze123 Global Phenomenon

keysersoze123

Posted
Posted
25 minutes ago, ZackM said:

 

Oppenheimer
Alpha Chain
Premiere Night Seat Report: T-12 days
           
  Last Day 2 Days Ago 3 Days Ago 4 Days Ago 5 Days Ago
Showings Added 19 4 1 0 6
Seats Added 3,036 820 55 0 1,407
Seats Sold 2,338 2,464 1,958 1,937 1,491
           
7/8/2023 Theaters Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Pct. Sold
Total 425 1,352 53,390 264,940 20.15%
           
% of Seats Sold 100% 90%+ 80%+ 70%+ 60%+
# of Showings 2 8 29 65 102
           
ATP Gross        
$19.30 $1,030,427        

I am happy with the pace. If reactions are strong on 11th, I am expecting 70k T-7 at 4K+ pace. Its going to over index here still I am expecting previews around 8m due to high ATP.

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