The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Grand Cine]

2 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

If it accelerates like Eternals did and it can do even better as it has new catalysts while Eternals had none. I am thinking it should come close to 140K finish. Flash's pace would be even better but Eternals seems better bet. Another movie is Ant-man. That wont look that good as its looking at slightly under 130K finish. So somewhere in 6.5 to low 7s depending on how the pace goes this week. 

 

 

3 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

I did not post commentary for Friday but Marvels is doing way worse compared to thursday.

Eternals(T-5) - 6500 pace/73877 // finished at 343722

 

Eternals actually added 12234 on its Monday for Friday. For some reason it had dramatic acceleration today. Currently Marvels is tracking 2/3rd of Eternals but current pace is around low 70s. Assuming it can do 80% rest of the run it can finish at 262K. Should be sufficient for 16-17m true friday. That should lead to mid 50s OW. @M37 what do you think?

 

 

I think your target for thursday at 140K final is a good target but i think Friday could be a little less i think more a 240K , so with 15,5-16M true friday with a good jump in Saturday , a mid 50's is enough

[Giorno]

33 minutes ago, Grand Cine said:

 

 

 

I think your target for thursday at 140K final is a good target but i think Friday could be a little less i think more a 240K , so with 15,5-16M true friday with a good jump in Saturday , a mid 50's is enough

friday is veterans day, saturday jump will be muted

[keysersoze123]

19 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Hunger Games: The BOSS MTC1 Previews - 22658/344351 439555.10 1826 shows

 

Its steady pace is really good. This is as of 11AM this morning. I will see if there is any bump tomorrow due to positive Social Media reactions. But they are doing the right thing with this movie. if I have to guess its making 6m+ previews. I think at this point 45m+ OW. But it can go higher if they can build on the buzz.  

Hunger Games: The BOSS MTC1

Previews - 24796/344720 479103.98 1829 shows +2138

Friday - 21627/498422 404591.65 2600 shows

 

Previews was for 21 hours or so. Its not bad but nothing crazy on pace. Let me see if I can get 24 hour run tomorrow. Friday relative to Thursday is quite good. 

[keysersoze123]

3 hours ago, Relevation said:

Tickets are now on sale for Napoleon

Just browsed Lincoln Sq where it has imax and it sold tons of seats for prime time show. That is faster than what Marvels did !!!

[Grand Cine]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

Just browsed Lincoln Sq where it has imax and it sold tons of seats for prime time show. That is faster than what Marvels did !!!

I think Killer of The Flower Moon could be the real comp for this one , the twice are at the same situation

[Arlborn]

12 minutes ago, Grand Cine said:

I think Killer of The Flower Moon could be the real comp for this one , the twice are at the same situation

I feel the same, this feels like a Flower Moon 2.0 kind of situation.

 

Does Apple have any more of those coming out?

[Bob Train]

33 minutes ago, Grand Cine said:

I think Killer of The Flower Moon could be the real comp for this one , the twice are at the same situation

Napoleon has the advantage of (if reviews are great) getting a possible review bump. 

[Mojoguy]

Just now, Bob Train said:

Napoleon has the advantage of (if reviews are great) getting a possible review bump. 

Napoleon has the advantage of looking like something more causal audience will watch and the shorter run time.

[Porthos]

9 minutes ago, Bob Train said:

Napoleon has the advantage of (if reviews are great) getting a possible review bump. 

 

On the flip side, will have Discount Tuesday which will eat into raw ticket sale comps.  On the flip to the flip, gonna have a 5 day OW to help spread sales about.

[Cmasterclay]

On the flip flip side.....Ridley and great reviews never a given.

 

Still, the hype for this in my personal networks v real and bigger than KOTFM was tbh, so I've been vocally high on it for months now.

Edited November 6, 2023 by Cmasterclay

[Mojoguy]

Just now, Cmasterclay said:

On the flip flip side.....Ridley and great reviews never a given.

I just hope Joaquin Phoenix doesn't cry about cows again in his speech if he wins his second Oscar.

[ThomasNicole]

Napoleon social media stats are considerable bigger than KOTFM. 
 

I agreed is the ideal comparisson, but i think there’s room for Napoleon to ended up being quite bigger unlike KOTFM that started strong and softened.
 

Reactions and reviews will drop on November 14 fwiw. A whole week before release which means they aren’t expecting bad news, which can help too.

[keysersoze123]

Napoleon is also more action packed than Flower Moon. That gives it some advantage. That said I am annoyed that Apple of all companies is not able to come to terms with SAG-AFTRA and let the cast promote the movie. They make 100 billion plus FCF every year !!! 

[Giorno]

19 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Napoleon is also more action packed than Flower Moon. That gives it some advantage. That said I am annoyed that Apple of all companies is not able to come to terms with SAG-AFTRA and let the cast promote the movie. They make 100 billion plus FCF every year !!! 

Apple is probably balking at AI protection, it was reported one of the reasons why they got rid of Jon Stewart was cause he was gonna touch on AI

[Boxofficerules]

I read there is a free public screening for Thanksgiving that's open to the public tonight.

[Flip]

1 hour ago, Bob Train said:

Napoleon has the advantage of (if reviews are great) getting a possible review bump. 

5 movies in a row fresh on RT, safe to say reviews should be at the minimum good

[Flip]

1 hour ago, ThomasNicole said:

Napoleon social media stats are considerable bigger than KOTFM. 
 

I agreed is the ideal comparisson, but i think there’s room for Napoleon to ended up being quite bigger unlike KOTFM that started strong and softened.
 

Reactions and reviews will drop on November 14 fwiw. A whole week before release which means they aren’t expecting bad news, which can help too.

it's also almost a full hour shorter, so it will be able to have much more shows, even in a crowded Thanksgiving slate

[Hilts]

On 11/5/2023 at 9:11 PM, Hilts said:

 

The Marvels							OK
Thursday - showings starting 3pm						ATP	$16.57
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-8	25	188	50	776	33,709	2.30%	6.89%
T-7	25	188	41	817	33,709	2.42%	5.28%
T-6	25	193	83	900	34,228	2.63%	10.16%
T-5	25	193	30	930	34,228	2.72%	3.33%
T-4	25	193	29	959	34,228	2.80%	3.12%
MTC1	8	59	+16	468	10,485	4.46%	3.54%
MTC2	4	48	+1	131	8,204	1.60%	0.77%
MTC3	3	39	+12	274	8,077	3.39%	4.58%
Other	10	47	0	86	7,462	1.15%	0.00%
Comps
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny					0.665x	=	$4.79m
Barbie					0.208x	=	$4.63m
Oppenheimer					0.437x	=	$4.59m
Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One					0.739x	=	$6.51m
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem					1.174x	=	$6.57m
Five Nights at Freddy's					0.488x	=	$5.03m

 

Matinee: 3.96%

3D: 9.70%

PLF: 58.60%

 

Comp average: $5.35m

 

What is going on!! I think people going for THG: BoS&S instead.

 

The Marvels							OK
Thursday - showings starting 3pm						ATP	$16.42
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-7	25	188	41	817	33,709	2.42%	5.28%
T-6	25	193	83	900	34,228	2.63%	10.16%
T-5	25	193	30	930	34,228	2.72%	3.33%
T-4	25	193	29	959	34,228	2.80%	3.12%
T-3	25	196	111	1,070	34,589	3.09%	11.57%
MTC1	8	59	+31	499	10,485	4.76%	6.62%
MTC2	4	48	+20	151	8,204	1.84%	15.27%
MTC3	3	39	+49	323	8,077	4.00%	17.88%
Other	10	50	+11	97	7,823	1.24%	12.79%
Comps
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny					0.661x	=	$4.76m
Barbie					0.198x	=	$4.41m
Oppenheimer					0.423x	=	$4.44m
Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One					0.751x	=	$6.61m
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem					1.085x	=	$6.08m
Five Nights at Freddy's					0.487x	=	$5.02m

 

Matinee: 5.14%

3D: 8.97%

PLF: 56.17%

 

Comp average: $5.22m

 

Finally, best day locally since Day 1. Unfortunately it still slipped on almost all comps. My region does seem to be the floor though.

[keysersoze123]

44 minutes ago, Giorno said:

Apple is probably balking at AI protection, it was reported one of the reasons why they got rid of Jon Stewart was cause he was gonna touch on AI

what ever benefit Apple is going to get from that is peanuts compared to bad press they will get and its not going to move the needle on topline or bottom line. 

[Hilts]

On 11/5/2023 at 9:17 PM, Hilts said:

 

The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes							OK
Thursday - showings starting 3pm						ATP	$15.24
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-15	19	81	248	248	15,547	1.60%	-
T-14	20	83	94	342	15,757	2.17%	37.90%
T-13	20	84	94	436	15,838	2.75%	27.49%
T-12	20	84	58	494	15,838	3.12%	13.30%
T-11	20	84	75	569	15,838	3.59%	15.18%
MTC1	8	28	+25	272	5,040	5.40%	10.12%
MTC2	4	23	+9	117	3,655	3.20%	8.33%
MTC3	3	20	+31	118	5,355	2.20%	35.63%
Other	5	13	+10	62	1,788	3.47%	19.23%
Comps
Barbie					0.275x	=	$6.10m
Blue Beetle					4.480x	=	$14.79m
The Creator					5.471x	=	$8.75m
Five Nights At Freddy's					0.487x	=	$5.01m
The Marvels					0.866x

 

Matinee: 5.10%

3D: 0.35%

PLF: 34.62%

 

Comp average: $8.66m

 

Nice day I think lifting the embargo helped a bit let's see if it carries through tomorrow.

 

The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes							OK
Thursday - showings starting 3pm						ATP	$15.43
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-14	20	83	94	342	15,757	2.17%	37.90%
T-13	20	84	94	436	15,838	2.75%	27.49%
T-12	20	84	58	494	15,838	3.12%	13.30%
T-11	20	84	75	569	15,838	3.59%	15.18%
T-10	20	88	96	665	16,237	4.10%	16.87%
MTC1	8	28	+40	312	5,040	6.19%	14.71%
MTC2	4	23	+3	120	3,655	3.28%	2.56%
MTC3	3	20	+38	156	5,355	2.91%	32.20%
Other	5	17	+15	77	2,187	3.52%	24.19%
Comps
Barbie					0.291x	=	$6.46m
Blue Beetle					4.926x	=	$16.26m
The Creator					6.101x	=	$9.76m
Five Nights At Freddy's					0.545x	=	$5.61m
The Marvels					0.964x

 

Matinee: 5.26%

3D: 1.80%

PLF: 34.44%

 

I think this is okay. The fact sales aren't dipping at this point shows WOM is still spreading. Recent daily sales are on par with Oppenheimer here and outpacing FNAF. Another day like this and it will overtake Marvels tomorrow.

Edited November 6, 2023 by Hilts