The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[DInky]

Just now, Johnny Tran said:

I'm just confused by the trades.  Surely they have data to look at, no?  Just a couple weeks ago, maybe not even they were saying $70-80M for 'The Marvels" and they were calling that a bad holdover from the first movie.  But they had nothing stating that it could and was likely to go even lower.  Until now.  

 

Y'all in here have been on it for weeks.  Congrats again.  The trades are getting beat up by this thread.  

 

And they're still throwing out inflated numbers.

 

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/the-marvels-box-office-marvel-1235639482/

 

 

 

[TheFlatLannister]

On 11/6/2023 at 6:37 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

WISH

 

Tuesday Previews 

 

T-15

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
174	627	31936	2.0%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

2

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

12

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-15

 

(1.409x) of Elemental $3.38M Previews *Not adjusted for ATP discount Tuesday* 

 

*Saturday EA* separate from previews 

181 seats sold over 10 showings 

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

WISH

 

Tuesday Previews 

 

T-14

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
174	650	31936	2.0%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

23

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-14

 

(1.419x) of Elemental $3.41M Previews *Not adjusted for ATP discount Tuesday* 

 

*Saturday EA* separate from previews 

208 seats sold over 10 showings 

[Johnny Tran]

5 minutes ago, DInky said:

 

And they're still throwing out inflated numbers.

 

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/the-marvels-box-office-marvel-1235639482/

 

 

 

 

Dear God...   I think at this point Marvel/Disney would be ecstatic with $60M+ but if they trades think that's bad imagine what the headlines will be if it comes in under $60M which is looking likely. 

[TheFlatLannister]

On 11/6/2023 at 6:35 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

Trolls: Band Together 

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-10

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
173	351	31572	1.1%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

17

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

2

 

SELLOUTS

1

 

COMPS

T-10

 

(0.652x) of Elemental $1.57M Previews

(2.356x) of Ruby Gilman $1.70M Previews

COMPS AVG: $1.64M

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

Trolls: Band Together 

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-9

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
173	350	31572	1.1%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

-1

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

1

 

COMPS

T-9

 

(0.634x) of Elemental $1.52M Previews

(2.303x) of Ruby Gilman $1.67M Previews

COMPS AVG: $1.60M

[TomThomas]

Gimme Napoleon numbers. That fake movie coming out this week is dead, I get it.

[TheFlatLannister]

On 11/6/2023 at 6:45 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

NAPOLEON

 

Tuesday Previews 

 

T-15 *First few hours

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
147	188	28317	0.66%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-15

 

(0.401x) of KoTFM $1.04M Previews *ATP not adjusted for discount Tuesday* 

Comps AVG: $1.04M

 

*MI7 comp because of discount Tuesday* 

(0.186x) of Mi7 $1.30M

 

Not seeing much signs of a breakout (not a bad start, but nothing noteworthy either) 

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

NAPOLEON

 

Tuesday Previews 

 

T-14

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
147	235	28317	0.83%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

47

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-14

 

(0.486x) of KoTFM $1.26M Previews *ATP not adjusted for discount Tuesday* 

Comps AVG: $1.26M

 

*MI7 comp because of discount Tuesday* 

(0.228x) of Mi7 $1.59M

[TheFlatLannister]

On 11/6/2023 at 6:59 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

GODZILLA MINUS ONE

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-24

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
33	101	6654	1.5%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

2

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-24

 

(0.281x) of Exorcist $799k Previews

Comps AVG: $799k

 

EA sales *separate from Thursdays previews listed above*

288 seats sold over 20 showings 

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

GODZILLA MINUS ONE

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-23

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
33	110	6654	1.7%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

9

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-23

 

(0.320x) of Exorcist $911k Previews

Comps AVG: $911k

 

EA sales *separate from Thursdays previews listed above*

288 seats sold over 20 showings 

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

THE HUNGER GAMES: THE BALLAD OF SONGBIRDS AND SNAKES

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-10

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
173	1391	33098	4.2%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

113

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

5

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-10

 

(0.868x) of Fast X $6.51M Previews

(0.517x) of FNAF $5.33M Previews

(0.533x) of The Flash $5.17M Previews

Comps AVG: $5.67M

 

This is an excellent pace. Heading comfortably to $6M+ previews if I had to guess 

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

THE HUNGER GAMES: THE BALLAD OF SONGBIRDS AND SNAKES

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-9

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
182	1487	34982	4.3%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

96

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

9

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-9

 

(0.928x) of Fast X $6.96M Previews

(0.523x) of FNAF $5.39M Previews

(0.539x) of The Flash $5.23M Previews

Comps AVG: $5.86M

 

Still increasing against comps 

[keysersoze123]

@Shawn when do we get a number from studio for the movie. 

[TheFlatLannister]

On 11/6/2023 at 6:55 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

The Marvels 

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-3

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
280	3040	56846	5.3%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

188

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

5

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-3

 

(0.376x) of GOTG3 $6.58M Previews

Comps AVG: $6.58M

 

*Flash comp is at $8.16M* 

 

It sold over 100 seats today which is a good thing (and gained a bit on the GOTG comp), but its also T-3 so nothing to really celebrate about 

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

The Marvels 

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-2

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
316	3382	64698	5.2%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

342

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

36

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-2

 

(0.390x) of GOTG3 $6.82M Previews

Comps AVG: $6.82M

 

*Flash comp is at $8.14M* 

 

Ok, this was a pretty good day. I think it avoids falling below $6M for sure

[Gavin Feng]

from deadline. It's over

 

Quote

Presales for The Marvels sit just north of $5M, which is on par with Warner Bros/DC’s The Flash, that movie flaming out with a $55M start stateside. Yikes. The worry is that if previews, which start at 3 p.m. Thursday, come in around $6M, The Marvels’ weekend would crater to $40M+.

 

[CJohn]

24 minutes ago, Gavin Feng said:

from deadline. It's over

 

 

If even DHD is this negative... yikes.

[M37]

47 minutes ago, Johnny Tran said:

I'm just confused by the trades.  Surely they have data to look at, no?  Just a couple weeks ago, maybe not even they were saying $70-80M for 'The Marvels" and they were calling that a bad holdover from the first movie.  But they had nothing stating that it could and was likely to go even lower.  Until now.  

 

Y'all in here have been on it for weeks.  Congrats again.  The trades are getting beat up by this thread.  

Having access to data, and knowing what to do with it - project forward - are two very different things. Even a presale heavy franchise like MCU has sold ~50% of its tickets for Thursday at this point. But knowing whether that is actually 40% or 60% matters greatly in generating a range for OW

[keysersoze123]

I think final week pick up is good. At least compared to what I have seen. its looking at another good increase today in pace compared to yesterday. I expect it to continue over till release. I am not seeing doomsday scenario from deadline. 

[abracadabra1998]

On 11/3/2023 at 5:32 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Wish (T-18):

Day: T-18, T-15	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Tuesday: 16 theaters	63	18	82	8067	1.02
Saturday Nov 18 EA: 9 theaters	9	22	51	1100	4.64
TOTALS:	72	40	133	9167	1.45

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		64	16	48.12
Marcus:		32	14	24.06
Alamo:		0	0	0
Other chains:		37	10	27.82

 

Comps:

1.064x Haunted Mansion (w/ EA): $3.3 Million

1.17x Paw Patrol (FRI): $7.97 Million (LOL)

0.59x TMNT (w/ EA): $3.24 Million

 

EA Comp:

0.91x TMNT Saturday EA: ~725k*

 

*Operating under the assumption that TMNT's Saturday EA is ~825k, half of the reported EA gross for both days

 

On 11/6/2023 at 6:05 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Napoleon (T-15, Day 1, taken around 6 PM CST):

Day: T-15	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 12 theaters	33	48	48	5088	0.94

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		23	23	47.92
MTC1:		31	31	64.58
Marcus:		14	14	29.17
Alamo:		0	0	0
Other chains:		3	3	6.25

 

Comps (Day 1):

1.26x The Creator: $2.02 Million

0.25x Hunger Games: Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes ?? 

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Wish (T-14):

Day: T-14, T-11	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Tuesday: 17 theaters	64	35	117	8446	1.39
Saturday Nov 18 EA: 9 theaters	9	8	59	1100	5.36
TOTALS:	73	43	176	9546	1.84

 

Comps:

1.1x Haunted Mansion (w/ EA): $3.41 Million

0.73x Paw Patrol (FRI): $4.94 Million

1x TMNT (switching to just Tuesday):  $3.85 Million

3.66x Trolls: Band Together: ???

 

EA Comp:

0.78x TMNT Saturday EA: ~640k*

0.3x Trolls: Band Together Saturday EA: ??? 

 

*Operating under the assumption that TMNT's Saturday EA is ~825k, half of the reported EA gross for both days

 

Honestly this is getting along pretty well, EA is not as strong as Trolls but the Tuesday sales are a lot healthier. 

 

Napoleon (T-14):

Day: T-14	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 13 theaters	35	29	77	5552	1.39

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		50	13	64.94
MTC1:		37	6	48.05
Marcus:		22	8	28.57
Alamo:		9	9	11.69
Other chains:		9	6	11.69

 

Going to wait until my next update on Friday to add T-X comps. In the meantime, I will use this space to complain about PLF allocation; most PLFs are set either super early (3 PM) or super late (9 or even 10 PM in one theater). I think theaters need to figure out their sets because right now many showtimes are just not appealing. This is not Oppy or KOFM, but it is still over 2 hours and 40 minutes and I feel theaters still struggle juggling that sometimes. 

 

Edited November 8, 2023 by abracadabra1998

[Flip]

2 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

WISH

 

Tuesday Previews 

 

T-14

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
174	650	31936	2.0%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

23

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-14

 

(1.419x) of Elemental $3.41M Previews *Not adjusted for ATP discount Tuesday* 

 

*Saturday EA* separate from previews 

208 seats sold over 10 showings 

How much more do you think this will overindex than Elemental did, since it’s reasonable to assume Disney movies are more recognizable with the brand than Pixar ones, or is that wrong?

[TheFlatLannister]

32 minutes ago, Flip said:

How much more do you think this will overindex than Elemental did, since it’s reasonable to assume Disney movies are more recognizable with the brand than Pixar ones, or is that wrong?

I'm not entirely sure. Elemental overindexed by quite a bit here and i'm assuming Wish will too so I will stick exclusively with the Elemental comp all the way through. Note: I am not adjusting ATP for discount Tuesday, so that $3.41M number is probably closer to $3M

[keysersoze123]

11 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

I'm not entirely sure. Elemental overindexed by quite a bit here and i'm assuming Wish will too so I will stick exclusively with the Elemental comp all the way through. Note: I am not adjusting ATP for discount Tuesday, so that $3.41M number is probably closer to $3M

I dont think you are discounting it sufficiently. What is your ATP vs discount TP. its more than 10% for sure. 

[rehpyc]

On 11/6/2023 at 8:00 PM, rehpyc said:

The Marvels T-4

 

Quantumania: 3.58M

GoTG3: 4.57M

Shang-Chi: 5.91M

AtSV: 6.99M

Thor L&T: 4.44M

Eternals: 5.16M

Flash: 6.13M

Indy: 7.47M

 

General trajectory on this end has looked between 5-6M, but also thinking this MTC is coming in lower on share than typical, so would wager more into the 6-6.5M area.

 

The Marvels T-2

 

Quantumania: 4.18M

GoTG3: 4.86M

Shang-Chi: 5.83M

AtSV: 6.58M

Thor L&T: 4.89M

Eternals: 5.47M

Flash: 6.21M

 

Current trajectory lowering to 4-5M for all but Indy.

 

To hit 6M+, its admits at T-0 will need to be 3-3.25x T-2's and the MTC under index the typical CBM average by a good margin. That'd be a late surge and walk-up strength of AtSV and oddly The Flash. Doable.. but a tough act to carry out.

 

Edit: Go me.. mixed up numbers and had T-3 numbers at T-2 vs. comps. Comps updated above, with new commentary below.

 

The past 2 days' growth hasn't been terrible, on par with Shang-Chi & The Flash. Averages of trajectories are pointing towards 6M, but again feel the MTC is under indexing compared to comps historically.

Edited November 8, 2023 by rehpyc

[keysersoze123]

Weird. I cannot see it miss 6m due to MTC1 numbers. Its looking like 7m based on trends. But rest of MTC have sucked big time. Among MiniTCs Drafthouse and Emagine numbers are not bad. But MiniTC2 have been atrocious. I wonder if @DAJK can provide the picture for Canada.