The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[M37]

11 hours ago, abracadabra1998 said:

Interestingly, that Barbie comp stayed virtually flat. Keeping up pace with that monster is really good news; additionally, in my market, The Marvels was doing just fine until T-7, when it started dropping against comps like crazy, so it should continue to grow really healthily against it. 

3 hours ago, Porthos said:

FWIW, since @M37 mentioned it, Barbs spits out a 4.47m comp which is in line with a few of the other GA comps and in fact has been more or less stable the last few days [T-10: 4.46m | T-9: 4.34m | T-8: 4.32m ] with only minor fluctuation. 

 

Barbie will be mostly a poor comp because the pace over the long haul is unlikely to be matched, like Katie Ledecky swimming the 1500M. But drop a fresh swimmer in at like 500M, and maybe they keep up, especially as Barbie ran up against capacity limitations and didn't finish quite as strong

 

Also like it here because of the likely female-skewing audience, and how that may match market performance

[jeffthehat]

On 11/7/2023 at 9:44 AM, jeffthehat said:

 

Hunger Games BoSS T-9

 

Coverage - 10/33 Malco theaters

Show count - 20

Seats sold - 229

Total seats - 2680

% sold - 8.5%

New sales - 38 (+19.9%)

 

Comp 

 

.55x Malvels T-9 = ??

---

 

Swapped one of the theaters I track, so Marvels comp is from 9/10 theaters. Also have to make some adjustments for blocked seats. Growth looks really good at this stage. 

 

 

Hunger Games BoSS T-6 (3 days of sales)

 

Coverage - 10/33 Malco Theaters

Show count - 25 (+5)

Seats sold - 444

Total seats - 4428

New sales - 215 (+93%)

3-day average of new sales - 71.7 tickets/day

 

Comp 

 

0.88x The Marvels T-6 = $5.72m*

*assumes $6.5m Marvels previews

---

 

Accelerating against Marvels here. It was only selling like 15 tickets/day at this stage. Would take the over on $50m OW rn. 

[Issac Newton]

The Marvels’ Hovers Around $6M Thursday Night – Box Office

 

EXCLUSIVE: Marvel Studios‘ sequel, The Marvels, has clocked around $6.5M in Thursday night previews we hear from sources. Disney will be reporting their official figure this morning. Previews began at 3PM.

[Issac Newton]

3 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

The Marvels’ Hovers Around $6M Thursday Night – Box Office

 

EXCLUSIVE: Marvel Studios‘ sequel, The Marvels, has clocked around $6.5M in Thursday night previews we hear from sources. Disney will be reporting their official figure this morning. Previews began at 3PM.

...While tracking took its projections down from $80M to $60M for The Marvels, there is a concern out there that The Marvels could see a $40M+ start.

 

Advance ticket sales of $5M indicated, The Marvels was flying into The Flash‘s territory opening wise. However, The Flash‘s preview figure was higher at $9.7M off showtimes that began at 3PM Thursday.

[keysersoze123]

The Marvels MTC2 previews final - 72405/595485 993889.33 4719 shows

 

I would not say its absolutely final number. But it should be within 10% of final number. I think 6m from this number. Thankfully there are other MTC where it did way better and so it should better than what this MTC suggests. 

 

I wonder if @rehpyc has final comps. 

 

Edit: I wonder if above source is Charlie !!!! Who is using data mostly from this thread. We are the official source going forward :-)

[jeffthehat]

1 minute ago, keysersoze123 said:

The Marvels MTC2 previews final - 72405/595485 993889.33 4719 shows

 

I would not say its absolutely final number. But it should be within 10% of final number. I think 6m from this number. Thankfully there are other MTC where it did way better and so it should better than what this MTC suggests. 

 

I wonder if @rehpyc has final comps. 

 

Edit: I wonder if above source is Charlie !!!! Who is using data mostly from this thread. We are the official source going forward 🙂

 

Awesome that a group of random nerds can clown stomp industry tracking. Should be embarassing for the trades, really. 

[reddevil19]

I hereby start a petition to rename this thread to "Official Deadline tracking source thread"

[M37]

12 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Edit: I wonder if above source is Charlie !!!! Who is using data mostly from this thread. We are the official source going forward 🙂

 

[whatsupdoc]

THE QUORUM'S WEEKLY OPENING WEEKEND PROJECTIONS:

 

JOURNEY TO BETHLEHEM: $4M - $6M (Flat from last week)

THE MARVELS: $55M - $64M (down)

HUNGER GAMES: BOSAS: $50M - $59M (up)

NEXT GOAL WINS: $1M - $3M (flat)

THANKSGIVING: $10M - $12M (up)

TROLLS BAND TOGETHER: $31M - $36M (down)

NAPOLEON (3-day): $10M - $12M (up)

WISH (3-day): $36M - $41M (flat)

SILENT NIGHT: $8M - $10M (flat)

THE BOY AND THE HERON: $2M - $4M (flat)

WONKA: $22M - $25M (up)

ANYONE BUT YOU: $3M - $5M (NEW)

AQUAMAN AND THE LOST KINGDOM: $35M - $44M (NEW)

THE IRON CLAW: $2M - $4M (NEW)

MIGRATION: $14M - $17M (NEW)

 

 

[abracadabra1998]

1 hour ago, Issac Newton said:

The Marvels’ Hovers Around $6M Thursday Night – Box Office

 

EXCLUSIVE: Marvel Studios‘ sequel, The Marvels, has clocked around $6.5M in Thursday night previews we hear from sources. Disney will be reporting their official figure this morning. Previews began at 3PM.

Journey to Bethlehem at $250k too, right in the middle for us @Hilts

 

Good day for my market, needed a win after FNAF completely underperforming here. More generally, great job here y’all, once again BOT is way ahead of the curve! 

[keysersoze123]

20 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

I did not post update yesterday and this morning I was out and so just grabbed previews. 

Hunger Games: The BOSS MTC1

Previews - 32027/358470 609195.29 1903 shows // +2437 it finished at 29590 yesterday

Friday - 27341/499331 505418.79 2604 shows // this is as of yesterday morning and so grew +3056 from previous day

 

 

Just putting out what I have in case @M37 want to project. 

Hunger Games: The BOSS MTC1

Previews - 35018/375733 663901.76 1969 shows +2991

Friday - 33124/508172 606376.48 2642 shows

 

Friday is 2 days of growth. Not much of a review boost. Not surprised considering just ok reviews for this. I am not feeling this is going to break out huge.  

[filmlover]

I actually think The Iron Claw could be a minor breakout ala Priscilla given A24's power of the specialty audience that others clearly lack. Won't make huge amounts of money but for The Feel Bad Movie of the Holidays (anyone not familiar with the tragic true story behind the Von Erich family can look it up on their own), $15-20M total would be solid.

 

Anyone But You is looking to be an obvious dump that won't make any money in theaters though.

[Porthos]

17 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

The Marvels Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

PREMIERE NIGHT (FINAL REPORT) [3:45pm - 4:30pm]

NOTE: All showtimes that started before 3:45pm were sampled at the start of that screening.

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	286	32134	36060	3926	10.89%

 

Total Showings Added Since Mid-Day	6
Total Seats Added Since Mid-Day	649
Total Seats Sold Since Mid-Day	658

 

T-0 Comps:

	%		Sold Since Mid-Day	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Eternal [4:50-5:20]	61.26		1095	6409		0/147	12843/19252	33.29%		6409	61.26%		6.58m
AM3 [3:45-4:30]	37.48		1083	10475		0/307	26899/37374	28.03%		10475	37.48%		6.56m
GOTG3[3:45-4:30]	36.52		1551	10750		0/347	31169/41919	25.64%		10750	36.52%		6.39m
TLM [3:50-4:15]	59.84		958	6561		0/235	23202/29763	22.04%		6561	59.84%		6.16m
AtSV [3:50-4:20]	40.29		1676	9744		0/266	22261/32005	30.45%		9744	40.29%		6.99m
Flash [3:55-4:20]	73.70		1076	5327		0/205	21645/26972	19.75%		5327	73.70%		7.15m
Indy 5 [3:50-4:20]	82.36		784	4767		0/183	20009/24776	19.24%		4767	82.36%		5.93m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Marvel's current tickets sold versus that final number.

ETERNAL COMP NOTE:  The Eternals comp has been given an ad-hoc adjustment of 1.13047x  to reflect the difference in ATP between now and late 2021, with the same methodology as explained in this post.

 

Regal:       842/12034  [7.00% sold]
Matinee:    272/3326  [8.18% | 6.93% of all tickets sold]
3D:             337/5317  [6.34% | 8.58% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

Set an internal benchmark of approx 625 tickets since the mid-day check and wouldn't you know?  It just cleared that bar, with a bit to spare.  The three MCU comps here, when averaged, spit out 6.51m, and who am I to argue with that?  So let's say 6.5m +/- .5m.

 

"Deadline Early Sources project 5m+ in previews" in three... two...

 

17 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Stop looking into the future off my sheets. 😛

 

FWIW, Sacramento is probably 'actually' pointing at 6.6m or so, but Disney likes to go for .25/.5 increments, even at this level and I don't feel comfy with 6.75m.  That and the weakness we're seeing in some of the smaller metros does make me want to be a tad conservative.

 

Quote

EXCLUSIVE, updated: Marvel Studios‘ sequel, The Marvels, has clocked around $6.5M in Thursday night previews we hear from sources. Disney called the night at $6.6M for showtimes that began at 3PM yesterday.

 

 

 

 

Edited November 10, 2023 by Porthos

[keysersoze123]

4 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

 

 

 

 

 

As I said before more MCU we just need your numbers. Going forward we should excuse other trackers. 

[filmlover]

Also showtimes are starting appear for Wonka (not on sale yet), starts at 3:00 that Thursday.

[Porthos]

LOL AT NEW THREAD TITLE. ❤️

[jeffthehat]

On 11/9/2023 at 9:50 AM, jeffthehat said:

 

The Marvels T-0

 

Coverage - 10/33 Malco Theaters

Show count - 31

Seats sold - 955

Total seats - 6048 

New sales - 160 (+20.1%)

 

Comps

 

0.14x Barbie T-0 (single theater) = $3.14m

3.01x Eras Thu T-0 = $8.43m / $4.64m ATP adjusted (-45%)*

0.17x Eras Fri T-0 = $5.94m / $2.67m ATP adjusted (-45%)

1.16x FNaF T-0 (9 theaters) = $11.94m*

 

Avg = $5.6m

 

*2-day presale windows

---

 

Average of comps came in lower than I expected. The comps I have aren't great but they support what I've been thinking about how this is doing here. The comps with 2-day presale windows are doing the lifting, so this sample might show <$5m if I had better comps. 

 

Most theaters I'm tracking are small southern cities (~100k population sizes). Between this and @Hilts OK data, does seem like this will overindex in metros + underindex rural. 

 

Friday shows nearly tripled this week, but it hasn't moved the needle much. Friday sales are ~800 tickets after adjusting for blocked seats with growth a bit above Thursday. 

 

Thinking $6.5m +/- $0.3m today. Expecting a low Friday multi (2-2.4x), flat-ish Sat, and -35-40% Sun. 

 

 

 

 

 

Marvels Friday T-0

 

Show count - 161

Seats sold - 1873*

New sales - 618 (+87%)

*no adjustment for blocked seats

 

Comps

 

0.33x Eras Fri T-0 = $11.65m / $6.41m ATP adjusted (-45%)

0.56x FNaF Fri T-0 = $16.62m

1.87x Marvels Thu T-0 = $12.34m

 

Avg = $11.79m

---

 

Total includes ~400 blocked seats. Leaving them in bc I did for Eras and FNaF. It should also control a bit for higher Fri walkups vs. Thu. <$13m true Fri wouldn't shock me but I'd guess ~$14m. 

[Hilts]

18 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

That's the full gif I was looking for last week but couldn't find it so thank you very much. Also:

 

[MrPink]

30 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

You are a stud

[YM!]

31 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

 

 

 

 

 

Big Daddy Porthos