The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[nguyenkhoi282]

15 minutes ago, dallas said:

I'm dumb. What does MTC1 mean?

Main theater chain 1. Avoid stating specific name for specific reasons.

[keysersoze123]

23 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Aquaman 2 MTC1

Previews(T-5) - 28314/509544 553317.68 2619 shows

Friday - 19589/729269 360103.87 3775 shows

Aquaman 2 MTC1

Previews(T-4) - 30248/509233 588799.54 2619 shows

Friday - 22125/729496 405152.83 3776 shows

 

Still the pace is anemic. Let us see how final 4 days goes. 

[Joyous Legion]

32 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Aquaman 2 MTC1

Previews(T-4) - 30248/509233 588799.54 2619 shows

Friday - 22125/729496 405152.83 3776 shows

 

Still the pace is anemic. Let us see how final 4 days goes. 

Feeling like a 70-75k finish, bit shy of BB

[HummingLemon496]

Just now, Legion Again said:

Feeling like a 70-75k finish, bit shy of BB

So what previews are you expecting then?

[Porthos]

On 12/15/2023 at 3:07 AM, Porthos said:

For what it's worth, Aquaman 2 is doing relatively well in Sacramento:

 

Quick and Dirty Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom Sacramento Report [T-7]

759/16797 (4.52% sold) [+52 tickets] 101 showtimes

 

1.46525x TSS at T-7                   [6.79m] (adj for ATP differences since 2021)
0.54331x Black Adam at T-7      [4.13m]
1.51800x Shazam 2 at T-7          [5.16m]
0.25058x AtSV at T-7                 [4.35m]
0.43772x The Flash at T-7         [4.25m]

 

Of course the ultra-late social/review lift will probably start showing its hand any day now in these comps, so they may not stay in the 4m-5m range.  Find out soon enough.

 

(next update will either be T-3 or T-4, depending on mood/how much the comps are actually moving/how different they are from the consensus)

 

Quick and Dirty Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom Sacramento Report [T-4]

930/16554 (5.62% sold) [+60 tickets] 98 showtimes

 

1.03911x TSS: at T-4                   [5.74m] (adj for ATP differences since 2021)
0.49311x Black Adam: at T-4     [3.75m]
1.50485x Shazam 2 at T-4         [5.12m]
0.20857x AtSV  at T-4                [4.09m]
0.42350x The Flash at T-4         [4.11m]

 

===

 

For those morbidly curious:

 

Thr: +52 tickets

Fri:   +52 tickets

Sat:  +59 tickets

Sun: +60 tickets

 

 

Edited December 19, 2023 by Porthos
Couple of the comps were T-3 instead of T-4. OOPS!

[vafrow]

On 12/17/2023 at 3:58 AM, vafrow said:

 

Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom, T-5, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Theatres: 5

Total Sales: 121

New Sales since last update: 12

Growth: 11%

Showtimes: 23

Radius 19km

 

Tickets/Showtimes by timeslot:

Late afternoon: 18/5

Early Evening: 88 /9

Late Evening: 15/9

 

Tickets/Showtimes by format

Dolby 3D: 25/6

Dolby:  6/1

IMAX: 15/3

IMAX 3D: 32/3

4dx: 7/3

VIP 3D: 2/2

VIP: 34/1

Regular 3D: 0/3

 

Comps

0.248x of The Marvels for $1.6M

0.486x of HG:BoSS for $2.8M

0.165x of FNAF for $1.7M

Avg: $2.0M

 

Ticket per showtime comp

 

2.04x Blue Beetle for $6.8M

 

Not a bad day. Staying in double digits growth, but still should ideally get higher if it wamts to gain ground.

 

Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom, T-4, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Theatres: 5

Total Sales: 136

New Sales since last update: 15

Growth: 12%

Showtimes: 23

Radius 19km

 

Tickets/Showtimes by timeslot:

Late afternoon: 21/5

Early Evening: 100/9

Late Evening: 15/9

 

Tickets/Showtimes by format

Dolby 3D: 33/6

Dolby:  6/1

IMAX: 19/3

IMAX 3D: 33/3

4dx: 7/3

VIP 3D: 2/2

VIP: 36/2

Regular 3D: 0/3

 

Comps

0.262x of The Marvels for $1.7M

0.464x of HG:BoSS for $2.7M

Avg: $2.2M

 

Ticket per showtime comp

 

1.96x Blue Beetle for $6.5M

 

Another low double digit day, which at this point isn't great, but not horrible.

 

I dropped the FNAF comp, as it wasn't helpful anymore, and it's hiding the mild growth against the other two.

 

I also did a quick count on Xmas day sales yesterday, and Aquaman is running at 75% of Thursday totals. It's worth noting that right now, Migration and Aquaman are the only films for sale on Xmas day. Full schedules sh go up Tuesday night.

 

 

[Eric is Quiet]

Quorum Updates

Poor Things T-4: 23.99% Awareness

The Boys in the Boat T-7: 23.24%

The Color Purple T-7: 49.98%

Ferrari T-7: 30.6%

Kung Fu Panda 4 T-81: 42.05%

 

Anyone But You T-4: 28.16% Awareness

Final Awareness: 17% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 15% chance of 10M

 

Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom T-4: 60.7% Awareness

Final Awareness: 100% chance of 30M, 94% chance of 40M, 83% chance of 50M, 72% chance of 60M, 55% chance of 70M, 39% chance of 100M

DC/MCU Awareness: 100% chance of 40M, 80% chance of 50M, 60% chance of 100M

 

The Iron Claw T-4: 27.58% Awareness

Final Awareness: 17% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 15% chance of 10M

 

Migration T-4: 41.32% Awareness

Final Awareness: 86% chance of 10M, 54% chance of 20M, 31% chance of 30M

Animation/Family Awareness: 80% chance of 10M, 20% chance of 20M

 

I.S.S. T-32: 18.03% Awareness

T-30 Awareness: 13% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 13% chance of 10M

[M37]

8 hours ago, Legion Again said:

Feeling like a 70-75k finish, bit shy of BB

Is there a BB final somwhere? Last posted updates were:

 

On 8/17/2023 at 1:30 AM, keysersoze123 said:

Blue Beetle MTC1

Previews(T-1) -  43443/582166 739284.69 3006 shows +9380

Friday - 30701/818055 512920.21 4213 shows

 

I think good boost considering its T-1 and also good reviews helped it from not so great situation. Its pace is well ahead of Shazam 2 and based on usual formula it can do 80K. Let us see how the walkups go. I am thinking 4m previews and 30-35m OW with good walkups. 

On 8/17/2023 at 5:36 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Unfortunately my internet cable got cut by a local contractor and so no more updates from my end

 

Even the most voracious walk-up films - like Fast X, Jurassic - top out at +67% on that final day, and that would still only get BB to 72.5K, not 80K. Given the reported preview was $3.3M would think it finished under 70K in reality (like 65K would be a $51 PSM)

 

Do agree with the 70-75K expected finish for Aquaman 2 here, just that it will be slightly above BB, not below, so like $3.7-$3.8M or so

EDIT: looking at growth rate (and Sacto) a bit more, I'm not sure it gets all the way to 70K, could fall just short. Mid to high 3s preview incoming, lower than any of Aquaman's first 17 days (excluding EA/sneak shows)

Edited December 18, 2023 by M37

[M37]

15 hours ago, abracadabra1998 said:

While I don't have past comps, as stated above, I went ahead and looked at Aquaman's ATP for Thursday previews, just to see how it would compare to the average blockbuster:

Total $$$:		7565.55
ATP:		17.63531469

 

So about $17.6 per ticket, which means about a 34% adjustment for The Color Purple, an even greater than the adjustment I had been making.

One thing to keep in mind is that limited capacity PLF tickets are usually stronger with early buys, while the standard tickets go more as the GA shows up towards the end. So Aquaman's ATP will decline from now until the final bell, and it should be a sub-30% adjustment in the end

[Joyous Legion]

56 minutes ago, M37 said:

Is there a BB final somwhere? Last posted updates were:

 

 

Even the most voracious walk-up films - like Fast X, Jurassic - top out at +67% on that final day, and that would still only get BB to 72.5K, not 80K. Given the reported preview was $3.3M would think it finished under 70K in reality (like 65K would be a $51 PSM)

 

Do agree with the 70-75K expected finish for Aquaman 2 here, just that it will be slightly above BB, not below, so like $3.7-$3.8M or so

I just saw 79k on a spreadsheet but double checking that was a projection rather than actual, good catch. 
 

But looking at BB’s pace on T-1 I do agree with hst spreadsheet entry that it very ended up 70k+. Still more likely then not in my mind, on balance, that AQM will be a hair below at mtc1 final bell but by maybe like 2% instead of 10%. Narrowing from 3-4.5 from a few weeks ago to like 3.2-3.8

[filmlover]

When are the embargoes for Aquaman and Color Purple supposed to end?

[YM!]

2 minutes ago, filmlover said:

When are the embargoes for Aquaman and Color Purple supposed to end?

Thursday before previews for Aquaman I believe.

[filmlover]

4 minutes ago, YM! said:

Thursday before previews for Aquaman I believe.

Great sign of confidence in the movie!

 

Migration and Anyone But You also remain under embargo, even though the former is now out in some countries.

[Relevation]

13 minutes ago, filmlover said:

When are the embargoes for Aquaman and Color Purple supposed to end?

Tuesday morning for Color Purple

Thursday morning for Aquaman

[M37]

27 minutes ago, Legion Again said:

I just saw 79k on a spreadsheet but double checking that was a projection rather than actual, good catch. 
 

But looking at BB’s pace on T-1 I do agree with hst spreadsheet entry that it very ended up 70k+. Still more likely then not in my mind, on balance, that AQM will be a hair below at mtc1 final bell but by maybe like 2% instead of 10%. Narrowing from 3-4.5 from a few weeks ago to like 3.2-3.8

Again, over 70K final would be both a better final day walk-up rate than Fast X and JWD, and a ridiculously low PSM, meaning MTC1 over-indexed more than any film I have data for. Marvels for example was just a hair under $50/tix, and $3.3M/70K = $47.  Those two outcomes - high walk ups and strong MTC1 overindex - really aren’t compatible; the actual final was almost certainly closer to 65K, especially knowing the demo skew, which would mean stronger MTC2 numbers 

 

But yeah, this is likely to be the 3rd DC Thursday previews to land somewhere in mid-$3M range 

[filmlover]

Looking beyond the major titles, sales for The Iron Claw and Ferrari are actually pretty solid near me. Neither will be a blockbuster obviously but if both managed $25M+ totals that would make them among the better drama performers in the post-pandemic era (not saying much but still).

[crazymoviekid]

On 12/13/2023 at 10:24 AM, crazymoviekid said:

2 Local NJ Theaters Christmas Day T-11:

 

The Color Purple - 553 (8 shows)
Wonka - 70 (8 shows)
AQM 2 - 15 (8 shows)
Ferrari - 61 (7 shows)
Migration - 14 (9 shows)
The Iron Claw - 0 (7 shows)
Poor Things - 0 (6 shows)
Boys in the Boat - 25 (7 shows)
Anyone But You -  0 (8 shows)

Color Purple continuing to be a monster.   Ferrari has jumped tremendously.  Gonna be a big adult/arthouse title.  AQM2 lost seats.  There's still time😬  Boys in the Boat joined with an encouraging result.  Iron Claw is DOA.

 

2 Local NJ Theaters Christmas Day T-7:

The Color Purple - 604 (8)
Wonka - 145 (8)
AQM 2 - 29 (8)
Ferrari - 81 (7)
Migration - 14 (9)
The Iron Claw - 6 (7)
Poor Things - 15 (6)
Boys in the Boat - 93 (7)
Anyone But You -  0 (8)

Color Purple still strong.   Wonka is picking up.  Boys in the Boat coming in hotter than Ferrari.   Migration standing still.  Aquaman and Ferrari had a nice pulse. Poor Things has entered the chat.  Iron Claw and Anyone But You still pretty dead.

[M37]

18 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Looking beyond the major titles, sales for The Iron Claw and Ferrari are actually pretty solid near me. Neither will be a blockbuster obviously but if both managed $25M+ totals that would make them among the better drama performers in the post-pandemic era (not saying much but still).

Keep in mind that sub-10x from Xmas day (mostly) applies to the little guys as well. Not many examples, as usually in a crowded market we get more limited Xmas openings and expansions later, but All The Money In the World needed a $2.56 Mon Xmas to get to $25M, with some awards consideration helping later 

[filmlover]

7 minutes ago, M37 said:

Keep in mind that sub-10x from Xmas day (mostly) applies to the little guys as well. Not many examples, as usually in a crowded market we get more limited Xmas openings and expansions later, but All The Money In the World needed a $2.56 Mon Xmas to get to $25M, with some awards consideration helping later 

I know that, but considering how diluted the marketplace has become for adult dramas, even a Priscilla-esque total over $20M has to be considered a minor win these days (a total over that number would especially be a win for The Iron Claw, given how much of a downer it's sure to be).

[Krissykins]

22 minutes ago, filmlover said:

I know that, but considering how diluted the marketplace has become for adult dramas, even a Priscilla-esque total over $20M has to be considered a minor win these days (a total over that number would especially be a win for The Iron Claw, given how much of a downer it's sure to be).

Plus (so far) it’s failed Oscar bait and there’s not much more unattractive than that. 
 

I can’t wait to see it but it’s pretty much being shut out for some reason so far.