The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, Krissykins said:

Plus (so far) it’s failed Oscar bait and there’s not much more unattractive than that. 
 

I can’t wait to see it but it’s pretty much being shut out for some reason so far. 

Sometimes movies just fall through the awards cracks and don't receive their due in their time. A24 also has a lot on their plate this fourth quarter (they've also put out Priscilla, Dream Scenario, and The Zone of Interest over the past two months) so as long as this makes some coins for them they'll be fine since this should do well on streaming.

[M37]

46 minutes ago, filmlover said:

I know that, but considering how diluted the marketplace has become for adult dramas, even a Priscilla-esque total over $20M has to be considered a minor win these days (a total over that number would especially be a win for The Iron Claw, given how much of a downer it's sure to be).

To be clear, I wasn’t downplaying a potential $25M total in the current market for these types of films, just noting that it will probably take $2.5M if not a $3M first day to get there

[el sid]

Migration had today 111 sold tickets for Thursday, December 21 (in 7 theaters).

Comps (always counted on Monday of the release week for Thursday): Dolittle (925k from previews) had 156 sold tickets,

Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile (575k) had 49 sold tickets,
Wonka (3.5M) had 857 sold tickets,
Super Pets (2.2M) had 271
and Paws of Fury: The Legend of Hank (550k) had 122 sold tickets.

Still almost no buzz around it and at the moment between 0.5M-1M judging from my comps.

[el sid]

The Iron Claw had today 80 sold tickets for Thursday, December 21 (in 5 theaters).

Comps (always counted on Monday of the release week for Thursday): Expend4bles (750k from previews) had 130 sold tickets,
Plane (435k) had 89,
Creed III (5.45M) had 584,
Big George Foreman (250k) had 24 (in 4 theaters),

Champions (1.8M OD/5.2M OW) had 21
and Air (3.2M OD/14.4M OW) had 117 sold tickets.

I noticed that the reviews are pretty good. OTOH most of its presales come from the AMC in LA (62 tickets) and otherwise it looks poor. So for the moment, 5M OW would be my guess.

[el sid]

Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom, counted today for Thursday:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 225 (3 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 183 (8 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 38 (4 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 3 (3 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 18 (3 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 271 (9 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 327 (9 showtimes)

 

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 1.065.

Comps (always counted on Monday of the release week for Thursday; when I count in the next few days I change to Friday because I have way better comps for that day): TSS (4.1M from previews) had 1.385 sold tickets,
Wonka (3.5M) had 857
GotG III (17.5M) had 4.303
and SC (8.8M) had 2.561 sold tickets.
 

So every comp points to around 4M at the moment.

Edited December 18, 2023 by el sid

[Joyous Legion]

And a quick check in from me on AQM Sacto after porthole noted it as an overperformingnmarket:

11 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Quick and Dirty Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom Sacramento Report [T-4]

930/16554 (5.62% sold) [+60 tickets] 98 showtimes

 

1.03911x TSS: at T-4                   [4.82m] (adj for ATP differences since 2021)
0.49311x Black Adam: at T-4     [3.75m]
1.50485x Shazam 2 at T-4         [5.12m]
0.20857x AtSV  at T-4                [3.62m]
0.42350x The Flash at T-4         [4.11m]

 

Size Adjusted: 4.7M

Geomean: 4.25M

 

Down from:

On 12/15/2023 at 3:07 AM, Porthos said:

For what it's worth, Aquaman 2 is doing relatively well in Sacramento:

 

Quick and Dirty Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom Sacramento Report [T-7]

759/16797 (4.52% sold) [+52 tickets] 101 showtimes

 

1.46525x TSS at T-7                   [6.79m] (adj for ATP differences since 2021)
0.54331x Black Adam at T-7      [4.13m]
1.51800x Shazam 2 at T-7          [5.16m]
0.25058x AtSV at T-7                 [4.35m]
0.43772x The Flash at T-7         [4.25m]

Size adjusted: 5.3M 

Geomean: 4.85M

 

Suggests a likely finish of ~3.5M from Sacto as well imo (split the difference and about 4.5M now, down .6 in 3 updates with 5 to go (obviously change in comps isn’t linear with number of updates but often these perform surprisingly close to that)).

Edited December 18, 2023 by Legion Again

[HummingLemon496]

19 minutes ago, Legion Again said:

And a quick check in from me on AQM Sacto after porthole noted it as an overperformingnmarket:

Size Adjusted: 4.7M

Geomean: 4.25M

 

Down from:

Size adjusted: 5.3M 

Geomean: 4.85M

 

Suggests a likely finish of ~3.5M from Sacto as well imo (split the difference and about 4.5M now, down .6 in 3 updates with 5 to go (obviously change in comps isn’t linear with number of updates but often these perform surprisingly close to that)).

So if it does 3.5 does that put the opening weekend range as $17.5-21M (or the SUPER wide range as $15.75-22.75M)?

Edited December 18, 2023 by HummingLemon496

[Joyous Legion]

35 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:

So if it does 3.5 does that put the opening weekend range as $17.5-21M (or the SUPER wide range as $15.75-22.75M)?

Yeah that is pretty much still my thinking. 

[Krissykins]

39 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:

So if it does 3.5 does that put the opening weekend range as $17.5-21M (or the SUPER wide range as $15.75-22.75M)?

Not a chance in hell. 

[Ezen Baklattan]

My big concern with Color Purple is that with so many wide openers, there’s probably only so many screens they’re going to be able to put this on and, effectively, so many more they can add. As a result, I think there’s definitely some potential for backloading.

[HummingLemon496]

7 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Not a chance in hell. 

@Legion Again said that the complete range for the internal multiplier is 4.5-6.5

[abracadabra1998]

On 12/17/2023 at 5:11 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom (T-4):

Day: T-4	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 18 theaters	84	86	429	15510	2.77

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		337	60	78.55
MTC1:		265	46	61.77
Marcus:		65	20	15.15
Alamo:		39	9	9.09
Other chains:		60	11	13.99

 

Comps:

0.41x Hunger Games: $2.34 Million

0.26x FNAF: $2.68 Million

0.32x MI7: $2.22 Million

0.36x Indiana Jones: $2.57 Million

0.31x The Marvels: $2.04 Million

1.82x Blue Beetle: $6 Million 

 

Average: $2.98 Million

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom (T-3):

Day: T-3	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 18 theaters	90	74	503	17213	2.92

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		379	42	75.35
MTC1:		298	33	59.24
Marcus:		89	24	17.69
Alamo:		41	2	8.15
Other chains:		75	15	14.91

 

Comps:

0.26x FNAF: $2.64 Million

1.16x Wonka: $4.05 Million

0.32x The Marvels: $2.14 Million

1.67x Blue Beetle: $5.51 Million 

 

Average: $3.59 Million

 

Changed up the comps to try to have things more representative of what Aquaman's final week might look like, I feel like these will likely converge in the 3-3.5 Million range.

 

[Joyous Legion]

16 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Not a chance in hell. 

There’s a chance it could be under 15!   
 

I don’t think that will happen, we’d have to crash to like, 3.2*4.7 or something? But it’s not totally off the table if reception is horrible. Anemic previews + a calendar configuration with weak Sat and dead Sun is quite a cocktail.

[HummingLemon496]

3 minutes ago, Legion Again said:

There’s a chance it could be under 15!   
 

I don’t think that will happen, we’d have to crash to like, 3.2*4.7 or something? But it’s not totally off the table if reception is horrible. Anemic previews + a calendar configuration with weak Sat and dead Sun is quite a cocktail.

Define "horrible"

[Joyous Legion]

Just now, HummingLemon496 said:

Define "horrible"

Like B- or worse?

[abracadabra1998]

On 12/17/2023 at 5:23 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Migration (T-4):

Day: T-4	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 17 theaters	75	51	124	9413	1.32

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		23	11	18.55
MTC1:		43	16	34.68
Marcus:		22	11	17.74
Alamo:		7	-1	5.65
Other chains:		52	25	41.94

 

Comps:

0.97x Trolls Band Together: $1.26 Million

0.48x Wish (TUE): $860k

0.4x Haunted Mansion (w/ EA): $1.24 Million

 

Average: $1.12 Million

 

Rose against all comps.

 

Anyone But You (T-4):

Day: T-4	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 15 theaters	49	33	62	3662	1.69

 

Comps:

0.78x Big Fat Greek Wedding 3: $425k

0.56x Joy Ride (w/ EA): $615k

 

Average: $520k

 

The Iron Claw (T-4):

Day: T-4	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 12 theaters	25	105	105	2028	5.18

 

Comps:

0.4x Asteroid City: $440k

0.44x The Creator: $590k

 

Average: $515k

 

Don't have very many good comps for this one, I welcome any ideas!

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Migration (T-3):

Day: T-3	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 18 theaters	83	45	169	11165	1.51

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		29	6	17.16
MTC1:		53	10	31.36
Marcus:		32	10	18.93
Alamo:		19	12	11.24
Other chains:		65	13	38.46

 

Comps:

1.09x Trolls Band Together: $1.42 Million

0.56x Wish (TUE): $1.01 Million

0.45x Haunted Mansion (w/ EA): $1.4 Million

 

Average: $1.28 Million

 

To be honest, this has been doing solid here lately, there is a noticeable number of larger groups (families) buying tickets in the smaller chains. Bad MTC1 numbers though.

 

Anyone But You (T-3):

Day: T-3	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 17 theaters	56	40	102	4352	2.34

 

Comps:

1.28x Big Fat Greek Wedding 3: $700k

0.82x Joy Ride (w/ EA): $900k

0.17x Don't Worry Darling: $530k

 

Average: $710k

 

Don't look now but this has also (relatively) been heating up.

 

The Iron Claw (T-3):

Day: T-3	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 15 theaters	31	17	122	2710	4.5

 

Comps:

0.38x Asteroid City: $415k

0.42x The Creator: $565k

 

Average: $490k

Edited December 18, 2023 by abracadabra1998
Added Don't Worry Darling comp because why not

[MovieMan89]

27 minutes ago, Ezen Baklattan said:

My big concern with Color Purple is that with so many wide openers, there’s probably only so many screens they’re going to be able to put this on and, effectively, so many more they can add. As a result, I think there’s definitely some potential for backloading.

Backloading would be totally wild given the pre-sales. If it’s actually backloaded, it’s flying past 300 

[TheFlatLannister]

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

The Iron Claw 

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-3

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
131	142	23098	0.61%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-3

 

(1.174x) of Priscilla $528k Previews

Comps AVG: $528k

 

@Relevation @abracadabra1998

[MovieMan89]

20 minutes ago, Legion Again said:

There’s a chance it could be under 15!   
 

I don’t think that will happen, we’d have to crash to like, 3.2*4.7 or something? But it’s not totally off the table if reception is horrible. Anemic previews + a calendar configuration with weak Sat and dead Sun is quite a cocktail.

I will laugh into 2024 if it’s under 15 lmao. Can’t think of a more fitting way for CBMs to go out in 2023 though. 

[TheFlatLannister]

On 12/17/2023 at 6:41 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

ANYONE BUT YOU

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-4

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
141	192	25978	0.74%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

30

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-4

 

(0.965x) of Greek Wedding 3 $531k Previews

(0.563x) of Asteroid City $619k Previews

Comps AVG: $575k

 

*Not counting EA sales* 

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

ANYONE BUT YOU

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-3

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
147	212	27006	0.79%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

20

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

6

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-3

 

(0.930x) of Greek Wedding 3 $511k Previews

(1.752x) of Priscilla $788k Previews

Comps AVG: $650k

 

*Not counting EA sales*