The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[charlie Jatinder]

5 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

I disagree. Early sales are non trivial and takes away from previews. After all only incentive to go on a thursday non summer weekday is from early enthusiasts who like to see it opening day. Otherwise why would anyone go at 3PM when schools are on and people are at work. 

In last 10 days early shows have added 5K in MTC1, I don’t expect them to add much as most locs those 1-2 shows are already full.

 

Anyways, I respect your opinion, I just stated what I normally do when the early shows are earlier than Tuesday or Wednesday. Normally we don’t get Monday ones but if we do, would mostly ignore them.

[keysersoze123]

21 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

In last 10 days early shows have added 5K in MTC1, I don’t expect them to add much as most locs those 1-2 shows are already full.

 

Anyways, I respect your opinion, I just stated what I normally do when the early shows are earlier than Tuesday or Wednesday. Normally we don’t get Monday ones but if we do, would mostly ignore them.

some of the best Imax shows(Linc Sq, Metreon etc) have sold out or just have wheelchair or front row seats. But many lie maxes have barely sold. They will grow closer to release. I am thinking 40K+ finish for early shows. 

[charlie Jatinder]

33 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

some of the best Imax shows(Linc Sq, Metreon etc) have sold out or just have wheelchair or front row seats. But many lie maxes have barely sold. They will grow closer to release. I am thinking 40K+ finish for early shows. 

Sure, it can do 40K which will be like what $1.5M? $2M? 

 

What I am suggesting is take THU alone comps and add $2M to them for EAs. Right now those EA sales are comping around $5-7M if we do direct comps.

[keysersoze123]

28 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Sure, it can do 40K which will be like what $1.5M? $2M? 

 

What I am suggesting is take THU alone comps and add $2M to them for EAs. Right now those EA sales are comping around $5-7M if we do direct comps.

I am also thinking 1.5m.  MTC1 over 800K and MTC3 has 91 Imax screens plus other TCs. Its also releasing in Indy ones(museum based ones or there are stand alone imax as well). 

 

 

But presales should accelerate faster post early shows. At least I hope so 🙂

[filmlover]

Variety projecting $4-6M for Lisa Frankenstein this weekend with Argylle remaining at #1 with $6-8M. Tumbleweeds, indeed.

 

https://variety.com/2024/film/box-office/lisa-frankenstein-box-office-opening-weekend-projection-argylle-1235901409/

[grim22]

16 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Variety projecting $4-6M for Lisa Frankenstein this weekend with Argylle remaining at #1 with $6-8M. Tumbleweeds, indeed.

 

https://variety.com/2024/film/box-office/lisa-frankenstein-box-office-opening-weekend-projection-argylle-1235901409/

Wonder if "Teri Baaton Mein Aisa Uljha Jiya" can make a play for the top spot. Or at least #2 

[charlie Jatinder]

43 minutes ago, grim22 said:

Wonder if "Teri Baaton Mein Aisa Uljha Jiya" can make a play for the top spot. Or at least #2 

Huh? Those are some really high expectations. It will be great if it cross $1M weekend

[dallas]

Lisa Frankenstein

 

Thursday Previews

 

T-1

Tickets Sold: 26 (+11)

Growth: 73%

% PLF: 0%

5 theaters/12 showtimes

 

Comps:

(0.113x) of Mean Girls - $0.42 Million

 

Yeesh. Really terrible numbers all things considered. Will likely find a cult audience later on but it definitely won't be a box office hit. Definitely won't open even in the teens. 

[Porthos]

22 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Dune: Part Two - Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-23 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	171	23032	24729	1697	6.86%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

41

 

T-23 Comps         UNIFORMLY TERRIBLE EDITION - DON'T TAKE SERIOUSLY AT ALL!!!

	%		Sold T-23	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
TGM	111.94		1516	1516		0/256	34603/36119	4.20%		11474	14.79%		21.56m
JWD	95.98		56	1768		0/179	22879/24647	7.17%		2915	58.22%		17.28m
Thor 4	35.92		563	4724		0/228	26876/31600	14.95%		16962	10.00%		10.42m
BP2	29.21		102	5810		1/294	31209/37019	15.69%		16800	10.10%		8.18m
Ava 2	100.47		369	1689		0/142	19649/21338	7.92%		8986	18.88%		17.08m
AM3	44.14		127	3845		0/235	28711/32556	11.81%		10475	16.20%		7.72m
GOTG3	58.34		114	2909		0/206	26760/29669	9.80%		10750	15.79%		10.21m
Fast X	222.12		9	764		0/182	26961/27725	2.76%		4122	41.17%		16.66m
Indy 5	200.35		11	847		0/124	18674/19521	4.34%		4767	35.60%		14.43m
Oppy	212.13		20	800		0/53	7450/8250	9.70%		10750	15.79%		22.27m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Dune: Part Two's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Matinee:      51/2762  [1.85% | 3.01% of all tickets sold]
———    
Sun:             613/814  [75.31% sold] [+0 tickets]
Thr:       1084/23915  [4.53% sold] [+41 tickets]
PLF:        1430/9813  [14.57% | 84.27% of all tickets sold]

 

===

Similarly to yesterday, first day of sales for TGM.

 

Dune: Part Two - Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-22 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	171	22950	24723	1773	7.17%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

76

 

T-22 Comps         UNIFORMLY TERRIBLE EDITION - DON'T TAKE SERIOUSLY AT ALL!!!

	%		Sold T-22	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
TGM	92.88		393	1909		0/257	34292/36201	5.27%		11474	15.45%		17.89m
JWD	98.01		41	1809		0/179	22839/24647	7.34%		2915	60.82%		17.64m
Thor 4	35.04		336	5060		0/228	26540/31600	16.01%		16962	10.45%		10.16m
BP2	29.81		138	5948		1/294	31071/37019	16.07%		16800	10.55%		8.35m
Ava 2	95.27		172	1861		0/142	19477/21338	8.72%		8986	19.73%		16.20m
AM3	44.73		119	3964		0/235	28592/32556	12.18%		10475	16.93%		7.83m
GOTG3	58.83		105	3014		0/206	26655/29669	10.16%		10750	16.49%		10.29m
Fast X	227.31		16	780		0/182	26942/27722	2.81%		4122	43.01%		17.05m
Indy 5	198.10		48	895		0/124	18626/19521	4.58%		4767	37.19%		14.26m
Oppy	212.08		36	836		0/53	7414/8250	10.13%		10750	16.49%		22.27m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Dune: Part Two's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:      483/8153  [5.92% sold]
Matinee:    56/2762  [2.03% | 3.16% of all tickets sold]
———    
Sun:          616/814  [75.68% sold] [+3 tickets]
Thr:    1157/23909  [4.84% sold] [+73 tickets]
PLF:     1496/9813  [15.25% | 84.38% of all tickets sold]

 

====

 

One quick note.  One of the DBOX showings I track went from zero sales to sold out tonight (20 tickets, to be exact).  This is the sort of red flag that I normally chalk up to theater side error and monitor for a couple of days before including it, but it is just  plausible enough (last showing of the night at one of the busier theaters in town is just the sort of thing a flock of nerds cinephiles might just go ahead and do) that I'm counting it for now. If it gets reversed, I'll note it in the corresponding daily update and just backdate my home sheet records.

 

(if we're being honest, at 20 extra tickets can't say I care as much as I might for a "real" suspect sellout)

 

[M37]

On the To EA or not to EA debate ....

 

From the Sacto data, growth from T-28 to the last update at T-23:

• Sunday EA = +2.9%
• Thursday Only = +20.4%
• Thursday PLF = +19.0%
• Total Sales = +13.4%

Can see how much Sunday's lack of new sales (largely a capacity issue) is dragging down the overall growth rate, while the PLF for Thursday is pacing similarly to the standard shows. Also, when you search for Dune on Fandango or even a MTC app, it takes you to the Thursday preview rather than Sunday, as those are listed under a different title code (fan screening)

 

All in all, I think there's a much greater chance of missing (overshooting) if comping when including the EA, as then the numerator is upweighted for present value, while the denominator is downweighted for the growth rate, making those values less likely to verify. That's probably a larger net effect than missing out on whatever demand pull there is from having a single IMAX only show on Sunday evening, which isn't negligible, but is probably close to the natural variably of Thursday potential depending on the calendar/time of year/external factors

[BadOlCatSylvester]

3 hours ago, dallas said:

Lisa Frankenstein

 

Thursday Previews

 

T-1

Tickets Sold: 26 (+11)

Growth: 73%

% PLF: 0%

5 theaters/12 showtimes

 

Comps:

(0.113x) of Mean Girls - $0.42 Million

 

Yeesh. Really terrible numbers all things considered. Will likely find a cult audience later on but it definitely won't be a box office hit. Definitely won't open even in the teens. 

I'm honestly kind of surprised they even bothered with a theatrical release. It seems like an uber-nice artpiece that likely would've been dumped on Peacock if it weren't for the strikes depriving exhibitors of content. It being placed on the lethal Super Bowl weekend was, in hindsight, a sign of their lack of faith in it.

[vafrow]

On 2/7/2024 at 4:23 AM, vafrow said:

 

Dune Part 2, Western GTA (southern Ontario), T-23 Thursday previews and T-19 EA shows

 

Previews

Total Sales: 282

New Sales: 17

Growth: 6.4%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 18

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 15.7

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Late Afternoon: 7/2

Early Evening: 222/9

Late Evening: 53/7

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 54/7

IMAX: 164/4

VIP: 56/5

4dx: 8/2

 

EA shows

 

Tickets sold: 363

Showtimes/Theatres: 2

Increase: 3

Growth: 0.8%

 

Slight bump in previews. EA shows have been very flat the last couple of days.

 

Dune Part 2, Western GTA (southern Ontario), T-22 Thursday previews and T-18 EA shows

 

Previews

Total Sales: 304

New Sales: 22

Growth: 7.8%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 18

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 16.9

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Late Afternoon: 7/2

Early Evening: 240/9

Late Evening: 57/7

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 63/7

IMAX: 170/4

VIP: 63/5

4dx: 8/2

 

EA shows

 

Tickets sold: 373

Showtimes/Theatres: 2

Increase: 10

Growth: 2.8%

 

Nothing out of the ordinary. Staying with a steady growth pace.

 

If it helps, the previews growth has averaged 8.5% per day for the past week. EA show is 1.8%. It does highlight how they're operating very independently.

[vafrow]

On 2/7/2024 at 4:37 AM, vafrow said:

 

Madame Web, western GTA (southern Ontario), Opening Day, T-9

 

Previews

Total Sales: 122

New Sales: 29

Growth: 31%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 20

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 6.1

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Early Afternoon: 0/2

Late Afternoon: 7/4

Early Evening: 87/7

Late Evening: 28/7

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 68/7

IMAX: 40/6

VIP: 14/5

Regular: 0/2

 

Comps

1.506x Aquaman 2 for $6.8M

0.632x HG:BoSS for $3.6M

0.324x of The Marvels for $2.1M

Avg: $4.2M

 

New showtimes are loaded, but there's one location that hasn't updated. There's at least one screen added in one location, but a lot of the expansion is added late or early shows as locations confirm their operating hours.

 

I'm not sure what's driving the surge, and whether people know to check for updated showtimes at this time, and bought accordingly. 

Regardless, comps have gone up.

 

Madame Web, western GTA (southern Ontario), Opening Day, T-8

 

Previews

Total Sales: 149

New Sales: 27

Growth: 22%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 20

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 7.5

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Early Afternoon: 0/2

Late Afternoon: 7/4

Early Evening: 101/7

Late Evening: 41/7

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 80/7

IMAX: 43/6

VIP: 26/5

Regular: 0/2

 

Comps

1.693x Aquaman 2 for $7.6M

0.710x HG:BoSS for $4.1M

0.378x of The Marvels for $2.5M

Avg: $4.7M

 

A big jump against comps. And with the nature of this being an opening day (and a busy theatre day), I expect the comps to climb, at least until reviews drop.

 

I can see it getting to about $6M in the end. Whether this is an outlier or not, we'll see.

[vafrow]

23 hours ago, vafrow said:

One Love, D1/T-8, western GTA (southern Ontario), Wednesday opener

Informal track

 

One Love sales after being up for about 12 hours, and with one location not having showtimes up yet is at 68 (compared to 122 for MW).

 

Color Purple was at 9 sales after its D2/T-5. It performed drastically different than it did in the US.

 

This seems to be resonating closer to what we're seeing in American markets. Which also means that we may not see the same growth levels, nor sales across the longer weekend. But, it's strong out of the gate, and I wouldn't be surprised if it catches MW in sales, but not guaranteed.

 

One Love, D2/T-7, western GTA (southern Ontario), Wednesday opener

Informal track

 

I did another quick count and it's at 155, officially above Madame Web.

 

This one has definitely caught me by surprise. I didn't expect it to perform similarly to US markets, given demographic differences and that Color Purple did so poorly here comparatively.

[filmlover]

3 hours ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

I'm honestly kind of surprised they even bothered with a theatrical release. It seems like an uber-nice artpiece that likely would've been dumped on Peacock if it weren't for the strikes depriving exhibitors of content. It being placed on the lethal Super Bowl weekend was, in hindsight, a sign of their lack of faith in it.

They probably thought they could collect some coins from the young female demographic that isn't especially invested in the NFL (hence the PG-13 rating), but the Swift of it all surrounding this particular game means even that demo is probably much more interested in the Super Bowl than expected.

Edited February 8 by filmlover

[Krissykins]

3 hours ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

I'm honestly kind of surprised they even bothered with a theatrical release. It seems like an uber-nice artpiece that likely would've been dumped on Peacock if it weren't for the strikes depriving exhibitors of content. It being placed on the lethal Super Bowl weekend was, in hindsight, a sign of their lack of faith in it.

Genre films targeting young teenagers (especially girls) have a long history of opening well on Super Bowl weekend. 

When A Stranger Calls, Boogeyman, Roommate, Messengers, Rings, The Eye, Darkness Falls etc. Most direct comparison being Warm Bodies. 

 

[filmlover]

5 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Genre films targeting young teenagers (especially girls) have a long history of opening well on Super Bowl weekend. 

When A Stranger Calls, Boogeyman, Roommate, Messengers, Rings, The Eye, Darkness Falls etc. Most direct comparison being Warm Bodies. 

 

Dear John also opened to robust numbers over Super Bowl weekend 14 years ago too primarily from the young female demo.

 

That said, mid 2000s to early 2010s obviously might as well be a whole different world for moviegoing at this point.

[el sid]

Lisa Frankenstein, counted yesterday for Thursday:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 23 (3 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 9 (2 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 1 (2 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 5 (2 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 10 (3 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 44 (2 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 117 (3 showtimes)

 

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 209.

Up meager 18% since Tuesday.

Comps (all films counted on Wednesday of the release week for Thursday): Beast (925k from previews) had 218 sold tickets = 900k,
Firestarter (375k) had 144 = 550k,
The Forever Purge (1.3M) had 168 = 2.2M,
The Invitation (775k) had 176 = 900k,
Smile (2M) had 306 = 1.35M,
Prey for the Devil (660k) had 140 = 1M,
M3gan (2.75M) had 450 = 1.25M

and The Last Voyage of the Demeter (750k) had 217 sold tickets = 700k.
 

Average: 1.1M.

 

In comparison with other smaller horror movies, the presales are still quite ok but the jump should have been better. Let's see if the ok reviews had some impact.

Update in a few hours.

[el sid]

Bob Marley: One Love, counted yesterday for Wednesday, February 14. 7 days left.

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 324 (6 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 113 (7 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 21 (5 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 21 (4 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 66 (7 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 120 (4 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 160 (9 showtimes)

 

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 825.

Comp: The Color Purple (18.15M OD) had with 6 days left 1.318 sold tickets = probably too good 11.3M OD (+ 1 day left).

Some „loose“ comps: Respect (650k from previews/2.95M true Friday /8.8M OW) had on Monday of the release for Friday 129 sold tickets,
Priscilla (1.95M OD/5M OW in 1.359 theaters) had also on Monday of the release week but for Thursday 128 sold tickets
and KotFM (2.6M from previews/6.8M true Friday/ 23.3M OW) had on Monday of the release week for Friday (= 4 days left) 1.224 sold tickets.

So this movie is doing very well also in my theaters. Could really become a surprise hit.

Edited February 8 by el sid

[keysersoze123]

On 2/5/2024 at 6:39 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Dune 2 MTC1

Early shows(2/25) - 22548/55434 455453.28 181 shows

Previews - 41156/512263 829106.92 2562 shows

Friday - 34828/793096 703425.28 3990 shows

Saturday - 35489/835139 687019.47 4206 shows

 

I dont see any concerns either around absolute number or daily pace. Plus its presales are well spread out over the weekend. I like the early reactions/reviews as well. Its previews minus early shows is ahead of Oppenheimer and pace is also slightly better. Oppenheimer saw huge acceleration 2 weeks from release. By that time Dune 2 reactions will also be out. So its all aligned to mimic that. 

Dune 2 MTC1

Early shows(2/25) - 23256/55671 468940.24 182 shows

Previews - 44055/514277 882665.33 2572 shows

Friday - 36955/789352 743009.47 3976 shows

Saturday - 37601/834499 724249.79 4216 shows

 

I think we have to wait until 15th for next leg of the presales. FYI this is as of late afternoon yesterday.