The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[TheFlatLannister]

2 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Dune MiniTC2 T-11 Days

Thursday - 2487/41974 (145 showings)

 

Comps

1.21x Oppy - $12.5M

0.49x Avatar 2 - $8.5M

Oppy comp will settle around 10ish perhaps 

Edited February 19 by TheFlatLannister

[jeffthehat]

Indiana

Dune: Part Two T-10

Sales	Seats	Shows
1345	26895	156

 

Here's how it looks vs. the V-Day openers

 

Movie	Sales at T-10	Sales at T-1
Bob Marley	935	3309
Madame Web	492	1680

 

Growth for these was crazy so comps won't be accurate. Expecting it to split the difference around T-1 though. 

 

 

 

[emoviefan]

I have been on the stay cautious with Dune Part 2 so as not to get disappointed but if this does just end doing a boring 65 million OW or something and not breaking out with the GA much at all no matter how great the buzz and reviews are it will be a little deflating. 

[dallas]

46 minutes ago, emoviefan said:

I have been on the stay cautious with Dune Part 2 so as not to get disappointed but if this does just end doing a boring 65 million OW or something and not breaking out with the GA much at all no matter how great the buzz and reviews are it will be a little deflating. 

I really can't see it going as low as $65M. My cautious prediction is $75-80M. 

[JonathanMB]

Has anyone checked on how Cabrini is selling for the March 8 weekend? I just looked at sales in my area and Thursday previews aren't much of anything but Friday showtimes are already 40-60% full at most theaters, and even Saturday is already selling well. It's Angel Studios so they have a Pay it forward thing in place again, but it seems higher their other non-Sound of Freedom releases have been, especially 2.5 weeks out (it has the same director, so maybe that's helping?).

[abracadabra1998]

20 minutes ago, JonathanMB said:

Has anyone checked on how Cabrini is selling for the March 8 weekend? I just looked at sales in my area and Thursday previews aren't much of anything but Friday showtimes are already 40-60% full at most theaters, and even Saturday is already selling well. It's Angel Studios so they have a Pay it forward thing in place again, but it seems higher their other non-Sound of Freedom releases have been, especially 2.5 weeks out (it has the same director, so maybe that's helping?).

I’ll start tracking that the week of, at T-4

[M37]

On 2/16/2024 at 6:31 AM, M37 said:

Yeah, "busy", we'll go with that ...

 

Dune Part 2 Thursday Preview Comps

 

As noted in the title, these are comps for Thursday only (no EA) except for the select few noted. Think the EA total is pretty much locked in at ~$2M, and including those sales skews the ratio vs comps.

 

Current average is floating around $12M, though as @Porthos discussed above, there aren't a lot of great comps available from the data set of our current trackers. My belief continues to be that this will trek closer to CBM level, in the TGM/Avatar 2/Batman range of final week growth, so many comps - including Oppy - will come down from current value. With that said, over $10M for just Thursday ($12M in total) still a reasonable target, and weekend sales suggest IM should be solid (~8x Thur only), so $80M+ OW is certainly in play

Dune Part 2 T-11 Thursday Preview Comps

Not much of a change from first update

 

As discussed, still think those Oppy comps are going to come down, and in the end we'll be flirting with ~$10M one way or another (again, for just Thursday)

 

And since everyone has been throwing out OW numbers, he's a rough cut of mine, with some wiggling possible as I dive into numbers a bit more on both ranges before the "official" T-7 Matrix

Dune II Forecast Matrix (T-11)		Thursday Preview Gross Range
		$9.00	$9.25	$9.50	$9.75	$10.00	$10.25	$10.50	$10.75	$11.00
Thur / Wknd Ratio (IM)	7.20	$64.8	$66.6	$68.4	$70.2	$72.0	$73.8	$75.6	$77.4	$79.2
	7.40	$66.6	$68.5	$70.3	$72.2	$74.0	$75.9	$77.7	$79.6	$81.4
	7.60	$68.4	$70.3	$72.2	$74.1	$76.0	$77.9	$79.8	$81.7	$83.6
	7.80	$70.2	$72.2	$74.1	$76.1	$78.0	$80.0	$81.9	$83.9	$85.8
	8.00	$72.0	$74.0	$76.0	$78.0	$80.0	$82.0	$84.0	$86.0	$88.0
	8.20	$73.8	$75.9	$77.9	$80.0	$82.0	$84.1	$86.1	$88.2	$90.2
	8.40	$75.6	$77.7	$79.8	$81.9	$84.0	$86.1	$88.2	$90.3	$92.4
	8.60	$77.4	$79.6	$81.7	$83.9	$86.0	$88.2	$90.3	$92.5	$94.6
	8.80	$79.2	$81.4	$83.6	$85.8	$88.0	$90.2	$92.4	$94.6	$96.8

Note: EA shows are not included in these vales, so add another ~$2M on top for both Previews and OW total

 

 

 

Sure seems to me like $80M OW is the target [$70-$90M], probably more likely to go over than under (but not yet "locked" IMO), though $90M+ going to take some work aka a really strong GA pull and finish (or an IM decently higher than the Avatar 2/Batman/Oppy ~8x)

 

Also

Spoiler

Still true, and we're at - or just turning the corner on - the bolded

On 2/5/2024 at 2:24 PM, M37 said:

Just going to plant a quick flag ....

 

All-in-all, I expect Dune II to be a relatively boring track. There will probably be some time in the middle where daily sales are solid, comps drift up, and some people will start to dream of bigger numbers with an accelerated high-pace finish ... but IMO its more likely it winds up a more tepid final few days (relatively speaking) and we'll circle back in the same range everyone has it at now.  Like Avatar 2, but at half the total volume (for Thursday, +EA)

 

[Eric is Quiet]

Quorum Updates

Cabrini T-18: 16.28%

Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga T-95: 25.49%

The Wolf Man T-249: 19.18%

 

Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba - To the Hashira Training T-4: 23.6% Awareness

Final Awareness: 15% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 13% chance of 10M

 

Drive-Away Dolls T-4: 16.71% Awareness

Final Awareness: 0% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 0% chance of 10M

 

Ordinary Angels T-4: 25.8% Awareness

Final Awareness: 15% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 13% chance of 10M

 

Dune: Part Two T-11: 62.19% Awareness

Final Awareness: 100% chance of 20M, 90% chance of 30M, 85% chance of 40M, 75% chance of 50M, 65% chance of 60M, 50% chance of 70M, 35% chance of 100M

Tentpole Awareness: 100% chance of 30M, 86% chance of 60M, 43% chance of 70M, 29% chance of 100M

 

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire T-32: 52.31% Awareness

T-30 Awareness: 100% chance of 20M, 94% chance of 30M, 87% chance of 40M, 81% chance of 50M, 62% chance of 60M, 56% chance of 70M, 37% chance of 100M

Tentpole Awareness: 100% chance of 30M, 75% chance of 60M, 50% chance of 70M, 25% chance of 100M

 

Abigail T-60: 23.15% Awareness

T-60 Awareness: 60% chance of 10M, 32% chance of 20M

Horror Awareness: 67% chance of 10M, 44% chance of 20M

 

Unsung Hero T-67: 10.37% Awareness

T-60 Awareness: 33% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 27% chance of 10M

[emoviefan]

21 minutes ago, Eric Web said:

Quorum Updates

Cabrini T-18: 16.28%

Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga T-95: 25.49%

The Wolf Man T-249: 19.18%

 

Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba - To the Hashira Training T-4: 23.6% Awareness

Final Awareness: 15% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 13% chance of 10M

 

Drive-Away Dolls T-4: 16.71% Awareness

Final Awareness: 0% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 0% chance of 10M

 

Ordinary Angels T-4: 25.8% Awareness

Final Awareness: 15% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 13% chance of 10M

 

Dune: Part Two T-11: 62.19% Awareness

Final Awareness: 100% chance of 20M, 90% chance of 30M, 85% chance of 40M, 75% chance of 50M, 65% chance of 60M, 50% chance of 70M, 35% chance of 100M

Tentpole Awareness: 100% chance of 30M, 86% chance of 60M, 43% chance of 70M, 29% chance of 100M

 

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire T-32: 52.31% Awareness

T-30 Awareness: 100% chance of 20M, 94% chance of 30M, 87% chance of 40M, 81% chance of 50M, 62% chance of 60M, 56% chance of 70M, 37% chance of 100M

Tentpole Awareness: 100% chance of 30M, 75% chance of 60M, 50% chance of 70M, 25% chance of 100M

 

Abigail T-60: 23.15% Awareness

T-60 Awareness: 60% chance of 10M, 32% chance of 20M

Horror Awareness: 67% chance of 10M, 44% chance of 20M

 

Unsung Hero T-67: 10.37% Awareness

T-60 Awareness: 33% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 27% chance of 10M

Ghostbusters:FE looking surprisingly strong for being 4 weeks out. If the movie delivers out opening Afterlife seems very possible.

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Dune Part 2 Denver Showings

Early Access:

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
1016	24	1353	75.09%

 

Thursday Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total

511

1794

28.48%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

483

1951

24.76%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
2271	81	19298	11.77%	13	94

 

1.463	Oppenheimer T-11	15.36M
2.776	Indiana Jones T-11	19.99M

0.659

Ant-Man 3 T-11

11.54M

0.450	Thor L&T T-11	13.04M
0.878	Batman T-11*	18.96M
2.308	Dune Part 1 T-11	11.77M

*Includes EA sales, all other comps Thursday previews only

Dune Part 2 Denver Showings

Early Access:

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
1036	20	1353	76.57%

 

Thursday Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total

521

1792

29.07%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

490

2137

22.93%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
2328	57	19768	11.78%	13	98

 

1.392	Oppenheimer T-10	14.61M
2.704	Indiana Jones T-10	19.47M

0.785	Avatar 2 T-10	13.35M
0.441	Thor L&T T-10	12.78M

2.209

Dune Part 1 T-10

11.26M

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Alamo Drafthouse Dune Part 2

T-11 Thursday

179 Showings

9354

+295

26431

ATP:

18.03

0.656	Barbie T-11	14.64M
1.963	Oppenheimer T-11	20.62M
1.895	Indiana Jones T-11	13.64M

0.754	Thor L&T T-11	21.87M
1.050	Batman T-11*	18.48M

Doesn't include Batman EA showings I missed

 

T-12 Friday

257 Showings

10848

+475

38139

ATP:

17.67

0.792	Barbie T-12	38.18M
2.113	Oppenheimer T-12	47.59M
2.472	Indiana Jones T-12	41.53M

1.066	Thor L&T T-12	43.22M
1.221	Batman T-12	42.83M

 

T-13 Saturday

269 Showings

12670

+532

39924

ATP:

17.15

0.868	Barbie T-13	41.52M
2.018	Oppenheimer T-13	53.57M
2.961	Indiana Jones T-13	55.01M

1.311	Thor L&T T-13	55.22M
1.503	Batman T-13	65.01M

 

T-14 Sunday

243 Showings

8310

+464

35912

ATP:

17.23

0.767	Barbie T-14	33.51M
2.046	Oppenheimer T-14	47.44M
3.467	Indiana Jones T-14	62.75M

1.572	Thor L&T T-14	51.08M
2.352	Batman T-14	80.30M

Alamo Drafthouse Dune Part 2

T-10 Thursday

185 Showings

9611

+257

26927

ATP:

17.99

0.654	Barbie T-10	14.58M
1.923	Oppenheimer T-10	20.19M
1.883	Indiana Jones T-10	13.56M

2.062	Avatar T-10	35.05M
0.754	Thor L&T T-10	21.88M

 

T-11 Friday

262 Showings

11182

+334

38540

ATP:

17.65

0.778	Barbie T-11	37.50M
2.005	Oppenheimer T-11	45.16M
2.455	Indiana Jones T-11	41.25M

1.889	Avatar T-11	68.36M
1.052	Thor L&T T-11	42.67M

 

T-12 Saturday

277 Showings

13138

+468

40712

ATP:

17.13

0.860	Barbie T-12	41.14M
1.958	Oppenheimer T-12	51.98M
2.943	Indiana Jones T-12	54.68M

1.859	Avatar T-12	82.42M
1.303	Thor L&T T-12	54.88M

 

T-13 Sunday

249 Showings

8661

+351

36440

ATP:

17.19

0.760	Barbie T-13	33.23M
1.989	Oppenheimer T-13	46.12M
3.388	Indiana Jones T-13	61.33M

2.048	Avatar T-13	74.90M
1.562	Thor L&T T-13	50.77M

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Emagine Entertainment Dune Part 2

T-11 Thursday

103 Showings

1375

+57

17436

1.203	Oppenheimer T-11	12.63M
1.359	Indiana Jones T-11	9.78M

 

T-12 Friday

162 Showings

1892

+134

27692

1.561	Oppenheimer T-12	35.15M
2.994	Indiana Jones T-12	50.29M

 

T-13 Saturday

168 Showings

1805

+166

28832

2.084	Oppenheimer T-13	54.71M
4.932	Indiana Jones T-13	91.63M

 

T-14 Sunday

162 Showings

630

+77

27954

1.358	Oppenheimer T-14	31.49M
4.375	Indiana Jones T-14	79.19M

Emagine Entertainment Dune Part 2

T-10 Thursday

103 Showings

1459

+84

17439

1.133	Oppenheimer T-10	11.89M
1.376	Indiana Jones T-10	9.91M

 

T-11 Friday

162 Showings

2022

+130

27702

1.455	Oppenheimer T-11	32.76M
2.736	Indiana Jones T-11	45.97M

 

T-12 Saturday

168 Showings

1909

+104

28834

1.950	Oppenheimer T-12	51.19M
4.784	Indiana Jones T-12	88.90M

 

T-13 Sunday

162 Showings

679

+49

27954

1.303	Oppenheimer T-13	30.22M
4.353	Indiana Jones T-13	78.78M

[abracadabra1998]

21 hours ago, abracadabra1998 said:

Minneapolis-St. Paul Thursday Previews:

 

Demon Slayer: Kimetsu No Yaiba (T-4):

Day: T-4	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 16 theaters	42	412	412	5976	6.89

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		136	136	33.01
MTC1:		235	235	57.04
Marcus:		107	107	25.97
Alamo:		13	13	3.16
Other chains:		57	57	13.83

 

Comps:

0.32x Boy and the Heron: $760k

0.43x Godzilla Minus One: $910k

0.63x Dragon Ball Super Hero: $2.53 MIllion

 

Average: $1.4 Million

 

Don't have very many good comps and Dragon Ball comp is from when I tracked less theaters (apples-to-apples comp, but not as good), so take these numbers with a grain of salt.

 

Drive-Away Dolls, Ordinary Angels, and updates on Dune and Panda later tonight

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Demon Slayer: Kimetsu No Yaiba (T-3):

Day: T-3	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 16 theaters	42	54	466	5976	7.8

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		147	11	31.55
MTC1:		272	37	58.37
Marcus:		117	10	25.11
Alamo:		13	0	2.79
Other chains:		64	7	13.73

 

Comps:

0.3x Boy and the Heron: $720k

0.47x Godzilla Minus One: $980k

0.71x Dragon Ball Super Hero: $2.82 MIllion

 

Average: $1.51 Million

 

I'm inclined to get rid of the Heron comp, that went bonkers here and that had a bunch of EA which skews things quite a bit. Still quite a bit of range between Godzilla and Dragon Ball lol

[abracadabra1998]

17 hours ago, abracadabra1998 said:

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Drive-Away Dolls (T-4):

Day: T-4	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 14 theaters	30	64	64	2925	2.19

 

Comps:

0.29x Asteroid City: $320k

0.61x The Iron Claw: $410k

 

Average: $365k

 

Ordinary Angels (T-4):

Day: T-4	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 15 theaters	20	27	27	2366	1.14

 

Comps:

0.19x Haunting in Venice: $225k

0.34x Big Fat Greek Wedding 3: $185k

 

Average: $205k

 

Seems like a couple of duds to add to February. Especially sad about Drive-Away Dolls, seems like not much interest sadly

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Drive-Away Dolls (T-3):

Day: T-3	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 14 theaters	30	15	79	2925	2.7

 

Comps:

0.27x Asteroid City: $300k

0.65x The Iron Claw: $435k

1.04x Ferrari: $450k

 

Average: $395k

 

Ordinary Angels (T-3):

Day: T-3	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 17 theaters	23	4	31	2614	1.19

 

Comps:

0.16x Haunting in Venice: $200k

0.39x Big Fat Greek Wedding 3: $215k

0.11x Boys on the Boat: $190k

 

Average: $200k

 

Apparently this is being called "Bonus Content" or "Early Access" so I wonder if they'll even report it... why do I do always this to myself  

[Cmasterclay]

Quorum far from the end all be all but those are horrendous numbers for Furiousa. 

 

Have had Dune at 70m OW since last fall and still sticking there until next week at least - just think the white fanboy factor is going to lead to comps coming down quite heavily, but I'd love to be wrong and frankly the good news is that now looks like a low range and not a high range!

[iEnri]

28 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Quorum far from the end all be all but those are horrendous numbers for Furiousa. 

 

Have had Dune at 70m OW since last fall and still sticking there until next week at least - just think the white fanboy factor is going to lead to comps coming down quite heavily, but I'd love to be wrong and frankly the good news is that now looks like a low range and not a high range!

The Quorom doesn't mean anything, they are constantly wrong about many films

[emoviefan]

32 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Quorum far from the end all be all but those are horrendous numbers for Furiousa. 

 

 

Just remember Furiosa is still 3 months  from release and there is still a second trailer and the main marketing push. If the numbers are are still that bad or not much better at this time in April then yeah pretty bad. And yeah Quorum is not end all be all as you said. 

[dallas]

3 hours ago, Eric Web said:

Quorum Updates

Cabrini T-18: 16.28%

Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga T-95: 25.49%

The Wolf Man T-249: 19.18%

 

Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba - To the Hashira Training T-4: 23.6% Awareness

Final Awareness: 15% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 13% chance of 10M

 

Drive-Away Dolls T-4: 16.71% Awareness

Final Awareness: 0% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 0% chance of 10M

 

Ordinary Angels T-4: 25.8% Awareness

Final Awareness: 15% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 13% chance of 10M

 

Dune: Part Two T-11: 62.19% Awareness

Final Awareness: 100% chance of 20M, 90% chance of 30M, 85% chance of 40M, 75% chance of 50M, 65% chance of 60M, 50% chance of 70M, 35% chance of 100M

Tentpole Awareness: 100% chance of 30M, 86% chance of 60M, 43% chance of 70M, 29% chance of 100M

 

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire T-32: 52.31% Awareness

T-30 Awareness: 100% chance of 20M, 94% chance of 30M, 87% chance of 40M, 81% chance of 50M, 62% chance of 60M, 56% chance of 70M, 37% chance of 100M

Tentpole Awareness: 100% chance of 30M, 75% chance of 60M, 50% chance of 70M, 25% chance of 100M

 

Abigail T-60: 23.15% Awareness

T-60 Awareness: 60% chance of 10M, 32% chance of 20M

Horror Awareness: 67% chance of 10M, 44% chance of 20M

 

Unsung Hero T-67: 10.37% Awareness

T-60 Awareness: 33% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 27% chance of 10M

Quorum confuses me. How does Ghostbusters have a higher chance at $70M than Dune 2 despite having less awareness?

[Eric is Quiet]

5 minutes ago, dallas said:

Quorum confuses me. How does Ghostbusters have a higher chance at $70M than Dune 2 despite having less awareness?

Because the data I'm looking at for Dune is based on the week of release, while Ghostbusters is a month before release. If a film has 65% awareness a few days it comes out in theaters, while another movie has 65% awareness one month or two months before release, that indicates stronger awareness and stronger box office potential on the latter, since we're not at the big final stretch of advertising like we are with the former. And of course, that doesn't mean it's set in stone or indicates that Ghostbusters will open higher than Dune. I'm of the opinion Ghostbusters will only do around 40M while Dune is set for 85M. But the data shows strong awareness compared to other movies at the same point in time Ghostbusters is currently in and not the current data Dune 2 is currently at. And that it correlates to a potentially high opening. Keyword being "potentially".

[charlie Jatinder]

8 hours ago, JonathanMB said:

Has anyone checked on how Cabrini is selling for the March 8 weekend? I just looked at sales in my area and Thursday previews aren't much of anything but Friday showtimes are already 40-60% full at most theaters, and even Saturday is already selling well. It's Angel Studios so they have a Pay it forward thing in place again, but it seems higher their other non-Sound of Freedom releases have been, especially 2.5 weeks out (it has the same director, so maybe that's helping?).

Yeah, have been checking it for 3 weeks or so and nothing more to say than you already said.

Edited February 20 by charlie Jatinder