The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Porthos]

9 minutes ago, von Kenni said:

To sum it up, with the preview estimates by trackers here the $80m+ looks still more probable than under it. If I'd had to bet, I'd say $84m OW with the data points so far.

 

The way *I* would put it is that there is just enough conflicting information out there to confirm/reinforce whatever priors one has about Dune: Part Two that things are still relatively somewhat up in air. Range is narrowing though, especially for Thursday.  

 

Aside from that?  "Eh." might be even better than "meh" since I can't really quite tell which way the wind is blowing.

[HummingLemon496]

18 minutes ago, von Kenni said:

$84m OW 

I need this number, this exact number

[von Kenni]

8 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

The way *I* would put it is that there is just enough conflicting information out there to confirm/reinforce whatever priors one has about Dune: Part Two that things are still relatively somewhat up in air. Range is narrowing though, especially for Thursday.  

 

Aside from that?  "Eh." might be even better than "meh" since I can't really quite tell which way the wind is blowing.

 

Tomorrow:

 

[efialtes76]

5 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Dune 2 MTC1

Previews(T-2) - 111558/692847 2099044.18 3883 shows +11766

Friday - 134746/1146427 2490641.68 6436 shows +18504
Saturday - 142386/1178885 2518308.16 6614 shows +20975

 

Big jump in show count and definitely the presales yesterday benefited from Sunday shows WOM. Thursday sales dropped 12% from yesterday which is meh. Let us see how next 2 day goes. 

MTC1 previews - 84853/611474 1475884.05 3452 shows

MTC1 Friday - 89363/995482 1554530.01 5674 shows

John Wick 4 at same time.

[vafrow]

On 2/27/2024 at 6:10 AM, vafrow said:

 

Dune Part 2, Western GTA (southern Ontario), T-3 Thursday previews

 

Previews

Total Sales: 932

New Sales: 122

Growth: 15%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 44

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 21.2

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Late Afternoon: 34/11

Early Evening: 623/21

Late Evening: 275/12

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 216/8

IMAX: 455/4

VIP: 208/12

Regular: 36/21

4dx: 17/2

 

Comps (no EA)

1.632 of Marvels for $10.8M

2.765 of HG: BoSS for $16.4M

 

Strong day. Both comps went up, but, refer to my post from yesterday regarding some theories that my theatre sample likely oversamples IMAX screens, which is leading to an overindex when comparing with films that didn't have a big IMAX component. Still, word of mouth is doing it's job.

 

Dune Part 2, Western GTA (southern Ontario), T-2 Thursday previews

 

Previews

Total Sales: 1064

New Sales: 132

Growth: 14%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 44

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 24.2

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Late Afternoon: 44/11

Early Evening: 691/21

Late Evening: 329/12

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 230/8

IMAX: 539/4

VIP: 228/12

Regular: 48/21

4dx: 19/2

 

Comps (no EA)

1.673 of Marvels for $11.0M

2.915 of HG: BoSS for $16.8M

 

Not bad, but I was hoping to see the growth rate jump a little bit.

 

[vafrow]

On 2/27/2024 at 6:13 AM, vafrow said:

 

Kung Fu Panda 4, Western GTA (southern Ontario), T-10 Thursday previews

 

Total Sales: 65

New Sales: 9

Growth: 16%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 14

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 4.6

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Early Afternoon: 3/2

Late Afternoon: 11/2

Early Evening: 31/5

Late Evening: 20/4

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Regular: 50/8
3D Regular: 6/5
Dolby: 9/1

 

Comps

1.806x Wonka for $6.3M

 

Again, not much to report. New showtimes go up today. It'll be interesting to see theatre allocation as tje region heads into spring break.

 

Kung Fu Panda 4, Western GTA (southern Ontario), T-9 Thursday previews

 

Total Sales: 86

New Sales: 21

Growth: 32%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 17

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 5.1

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Early Afternoon: 3/2

Late Afternoon: 21/3

Early Evening: 37/6

Late Evening: 25/6

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Regular: 67/8
3D Regular: 6/5
Dolby: 13/1

 

Comps

1.955x Wonka for $6.8M

 

The showtimes were added, but it only got three more. I'm guessing it'll get more screens on Friday though. 

 

It was a good growth day though.

[charlie Jatinder]

5 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Dune 2 MTC1

Previews(T-2) - 111558/692847 2099044.18 3883 shows +11766

Friday - 134746/1146427 2490641.68 6436 shows +18504
Saturday - 142386/1178885 2518308.16 6614 shows +20975

 

Big jump in show count and definitely the presales yesterday benefited from Sunday shows WOM. Thursday sales dropped 12% from yesterday which is meh. Let us see how next 2 day goes. 

Comp with Dune 1

THU

T-7: 184%
-4: 182%

-3: 188%
-2: 187% ($9.53M, inf adj $10M)

FRI

T-7: 188%
-4: 187%
-3: 190%
-2: 188% ($23.3M, inf adj $25M)
 

Dune 1 had poor walkups on final day, Dune 2 has potential to improve there a bit, unless ofc it repeats as well
 

[vafrow]

53 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Comp with Dune 1

THU

T-7: 184%
-4: 182%

-3: 188%
-2: 187% ($9.53M, inf adj $10M)

FRI

T-7: 188%
-4: 187%
-3: 190%
-2: 188% ($23.3M, inf adj $25M)
 

Dune 1 had poor walkups on final day, Dune 2 has potential to improve there a bit, unless ofc it repeats as well
 

 

With sales concentrated in IMAX screens, won't Dune 2 be more at risk of poor walk ups. There's less open IMAX capacity available than Dune 1 due to this one selling better, and a Thursday means less people willing to do the late night show, and more likely to defer to later jn the weekend if they can't get a good seat.

[M37]

My hesitation with relying too much on Dune I as a comp is the Day & Date factor. Some number of people who likely would have gone to theaters watched at home, only we don’t know how much it impacted the presales vs walk-ups (I’d presume the latter more), and even may not have been a uniform impact across markets & chains 
 

But also it’s not like we have great comps, so it certainly can’t hurt  

[Shawn Robbins]

Friendly heads up to those keeping track: Drive-Away Dolls' preview gross has been updated (studio reported) as $350K. (I think some outlets had it over $400-450K last week.)

[katnisscinnaplex]

22 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Dune: Part Two	T-2	Jax	6	86	146	997	13,012	7.66%
		Phx	6	64	154	791	10,838	7.30%
		Ral	8	68	134	920	8,842	10.40%
	Total		20	218	434	2,708	32,692	8.28%

 

T-2 comps

 - Dune - 1.8x (9.16m)

 - Top Gun 2 - .579x (8.51m)

 - Batman - .432x (7.6m)

 - Jurassic World 3 - .535x (9.47m)

 - Eternals - .898x (8.53m)

 - Black Widow - .663x (8.75m)

 - Flash - 1.18x (11.43m)

 - Avatar 2 - .507x (8.63m)

 - Oppenheimer - .915x (9.42m)

 

Forecast is at 9.36m for previews.  Lots of shows added today

 

*Added Oppenheimer which increased forecast slightly

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Dune: Part Two	T-1	Jax	6	91	131	1,128	13,367	8.44%
		Phx	7	74	260	1,051	11,534	9.11%
		Ral	8	77	145	1,065	9,887	10.77%
	Total		21	242	536	3,244	34,788	9.33%

 

T-1 comps

 - Dune - 1.84x (9.38m) +17%

 - Top Gun 2 - .574x (8.44m) +20.8%

 - Batman - .442x (7.77m) +17.1%

 - Jurassic World 3 - .537x (9.51m) +19.4%

 - Eternals - .949x (9.02m) +13.3%

 - Black Widow - .694x (9.16m) +14.4%

 - Flash - 1.17x (11.34m) +20.7%

 - Avatar 2 - .526x (8.94m) +15.6%

 - Oppenheimer - .949x (9.77m) +15.5%

 

Growth of 19.8% was third best of all comps.  Two-day pace of +42.7% was in line with TG2 (42.6%) and JW3 (42.4%), ahead of Oppy (37.1%) but well behind Dune 1 (49.5%).  Expecting around +24% tomorrow.

 

Forecast is up to 9.55m now with another good day. 

[katnisscinnaplex]

23 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Kung Fu Panda 4	T-9	Jax	5	39	0	63	4,580	1.38%
		Phx	6	29	4	93	4,685	1.99%
		Ral	8	44	0	117	5,047	2.32%
	T-9 Total		19	112	4	273	14,312	1.91%

 

T-9 comps

 - Haunted Mansion (Total) - .728x (2.26m)

 - Sonic 2 (Total) - .435x (2.72m)

 - TMNT (Total) - .426x (2.39m)

 

Hardly any new sales but not too surprising this far out.  Forecast is at 2.11m

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Kung Fu Panda 4	T-8	Jax	5	39	-2	61	4,580	1.33%
		Phx	6	29	-5	88	4,685	1.88%
		Ral	8	44	2	119	5,047	2.36%
	Total		19	112	-5	268	14,312	1.87%

 

T-8 comps

 - Haunted Mansion (Total) - .66x (2.05m)

 - Sonic 2 (Total) - .396x (2.48m)

 - TMNT (Total) - .382x (2.14m)

 

Lost a few sales and dropped the forecast to 1.89m.  Hoping to add more comps soon.

[Shawn Robbins]

8 hours ago, leoh said:

80M is just best case scenario.

 

According to today’s Deadline report, WB is projecting Dune to make 65M+, yet theaters think it can get closer to 80M OW.

 

It’ll probably ended up at 70s just like @Shawn Robbins projected initially.

I think best case is a little over $80-85m at this stage with the caveat that the $2m EA will probably be included in the weekend gross.

 

Logan's $88.4m for the 7th top March opener... not impossible, but it's on the outer bands.

[JustWatching]

So over the course of the last 4 days, ThFSS sales at my local no-PLFs, no recliners, no food, no alcohol, no nothing, Cinemark have gone from 30 to 61 to 90 as of right now. This is actually pretty impressive since, given the total lack of amenities, it’s not normally a heavy presales location. They’ve also doubled the number of shows over the past two days to 47, so walkups shouldn’t have a problem finding a time. Things definitely looking up.

[el sid]

Dune: Part Two, counted today for tomorrow:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 315 (7 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 554 (12 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 109 (9 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 69 (2 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 214 (7 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 802 (8 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 1.431 (13 showtimes)

 

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 3.494.

Up so-so 19.5% since Monday.
Comps (all movies counted on Wednesday of the release week for Thursday; no Dune comps today but tomorrow again): G: A (4.5M) had 1.221 = 12.9M.
Eternals (9.5M) had 3.581 = 9.3M.
Uncharted (3.7M) had 1.062 = 12.2M.
Nope (6.4M) had 2.839 = 7.9M.
JWD (18M) had 3.821 = 16.5M.

And SC (8.8M) had 3.166 = 10.1M.

Average: 11.4M Thursday (without EA).
Seems almost too good. Let's see if it can keep the pace to the end.

[TheFlatLannister]

12 minutes ago, el sid said:

Dune: Part Two, counted today for tomorrow:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 315 (7 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 554 (12 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 109 (9 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 69 (2 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 214 (7 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 802 (8 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 1.431 (13 showtimes)

 

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 3.494.

Up so-so 19.5% since Monday.
Comps (all movies counted on Wednesday of the release week for Thursday; no Dune comps today but tomorrow again): G: A (4.5M) had 1.221 = 12.9M.
Eternals (9.5M) had 3.581 = 9.3M.
Uncharted (3.7M) had 1.062 = 12.2M.
Nope (6.4M) had 2.839 = 7.9M.
JWD (18M) had 3.821 = 16.5M.

And SC (8.8M) had 3.166 = 10.1M.

Average: 11.4M Thursday (without EA).
Seems almost too good. Let's see if it can keep the pace to the end.

I thought you tracked Oppenheimer

[el sid]

3 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

I thought you tracked Oppenheimer

Unfortunately not in its last week. 

[Eric is Quiet]

Quorum Updates

Arthur the King T-16: 32.89%

Loves Lies Bleeding T-16: 17.24%

Civil War T-44: 26.47%

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes T-72: 55.3%

IF T-79: 28.49%

It Ends With Us T-114: 17.45%

Transformers One T-198: 29.72%

 

Dune: Part Two T-2: 59.61% Awareness

Final Awareness: 100% chance of 10M, 92% chance of 20M, 72% chance of 30M, 36% chance of 40M, 24% chance of 50M, 16% chance of 60M, 12% chance of 90M, 8% chance of 100M

Tentpole Awareness: 100% chance of 30M, 75% chance of 40M, 25% chance of 50M

 

Godzilla X Kong: The New Empire T-30: 51.32% Awareness

T-30 Awareness: 100% chance of 20M, 94% chance of 30M, 87% chance of 40M, 81% chance of 50M, 62% chance of 60M, 56% chance of 70M, 37% chance of 100M

Tentpole Awareness: 100% chance of 30M, 75% chance of 60M, 50% chance of 70M, 25% chance of 100M

 

Monkey Man T-37: 24.59% Awareness

T-30 Awareness: 54% chance of 10M, 17% chance of 20M

Low Awareness: 34% chance of 10M, 7% chance of 20M

[keysersoze123]

12 minutes ago, Eric Atreides said:

 

 

Dune: Part Two T-2: 59.61% Awareness

Final Awareness: 100% chance of 10M, 92% chance of 20M, 72% chance of 30M, 36% chance of 40M, 24% chance of 50M, 16% chance of 60M, 12% chance of 90M, 8% chance of 100M

Tentpole Awareness: 100% chance of 30M, 75% chance of 40M, 25% chance of 50M

 

LOL. Quorum being a joke as usual. They think only 25% chance of 50m 🙂 

[JustLurking]

2 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

LOL. Quorum being a joke as usual. They think only 25% chance of 50m 🙂 

I don't think that's Quorum's actual prediction which was quite a bit higher iirc (but still well below tracking). Just what Eric is getting with other comps.

Edited February 28 by JustLurking