The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[vafrow]

10 minutes ago, Minnale101 said:

I wonder if this movie skews higher to cities with higher Chinese population obviously living here, there’s huge Chinese population here especially Markham 

 

 

 

Potentially, but my samle doesn't extend that far into the GTA to Markham right now. I'm in Halton/Mississauga.

 

What surprises me the most though is that most schools are off for March break the following week. I assumed people would hold off to watch this during the break when kids need some form of entertainment.

 

Edit:

 

I did a quick check on the Markham theatre, and with KFP4 on just one screen, they have 67 tickets sold. Which is more than any location in my sample, and 50% of my five theatre total.

 

There's clearly an additional draw to that demographic.

Edited March 2 by vafrow

[Minnale101]

5 minutes ago, vafrow said:

 

Potentially, but my samle doesn't extend that far into the GTA to Markham right now. I'm in Halton/Mississauga.

 

What surprises me the most though is that most schools are off for March break the following week. I assumed people would hold off to watch this during the break when kids need some form of entertainment.

I mean if it’s previews, I’m mid 20s and kung fu panda 1 releases 2008. A lot of kids in 2008 who watched probably have nostalgia for it 

 

maybe kids are waiting weekend or spring break week after

[katnisscinnaplex]

20 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Santikos Tracking

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold
T-0	Dune: Part 2 (Fri)	PLF	58		2,757	12,617	21.85%
		Standard	94		1,031	10,626	9.70%
	Total		152		3,788	23,243	16.30%

 

T-0 comps

 - Oppenheimer - .865x (19.46m)

 - Avatar 2 - .471x (17.32m)

 - Top Gun 2 - .448x (14.67m)

 - Nope - 2.044x (26.86m)

 

Adjusted comps

 - Oppenheimer - 19.69m

 - Avatar 2 - 26.1m

 - Top Gun 2 - 23.65m

 - Nope - 24.72m

 

Oppenheimer was the closest previews comp as expected, coming in just ahead.  This puts Friday in an interesting position, because everything else is adjusting to much higher totals if they have the same multiplier that Thursday did.  I think the wisest thing to do would be throw out the other comps and go with something around 19.5m true Friday.

Santikos Tracking

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold
T-0	Dune: Part 2 (Sat)	PLF	50	3,289	3,289	11,580	28.40%
		Standard	104	1,346	1,346	11,858	11.35%
	Total		154	4,635	4,635	23,438	19.78%

 

T-0 comps

 - Oppenheimer - .898x (23.57m)

 - Avatar 2 - .495x (21.92m)

 - Top Gun 2 - .518x (19.68m)

 

Adjusted comps (Using 20.75m true Fri)

 - Oppenheimer - 25.11m

 - Avatar 2 - 26.7m

 - Top Gun 2 - 27.84m

 

Oppenheimer hasn't let me down yet, so I'll go with 25.5m Saturday

[katnisscinnaplex]

21 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Kung Fu Panda 4	T-6	Jax	5	39	1	66	4,580	1.44%
		Phx	6	32	17	117	5,003	2.34%
		Ral	8	44	6	130	5,047	2.58%
	Total		19	115	24	313	14,630	2.14%

 

T-6 comps

 - Haunted Mansion (Total) - .61x (1.91m)

 - Sonic 2 (Total) - .394x (2.46m)

 - TMNT (Total) - .343x (1.92m)

 - Lightyear (Total) - .564x (3.1m)

 - Elemental - 1.44x (3.45m)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Kung Fu Panda 4	T-5	Jax	5	39	19	85	4,580	1.86%
		Phx	6	32	16	133	5,003	2.66%
		Ral	8	44	10	140	5,047	2.77%
	Total		19	115	45	358	14,630	2.45%

 

T-5 comps

 - Haunted Mansion (Total) - .616x (1.91m)

 - Sonic 2 (Total) - .4x (2.5m)

 - TMNT (Total) - .348x (1.95m)

 - Lightyear (Total) - .592x (3.25m)

 - Elemental - 1.52x (3.64m)

 - Super Pets - 2.98x (6.56m)

[katnisscinnaplex]

19 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Ghostbusters: FE	T-20	Jax	5	56	63	63	8,681	0.73%
		Phx	6	49	68	68	8,582	0.79%
		Ral	8	36	75	75	5,244	1.43%
	Total		19	141	206	206	22,507	0.92%

 

Day 1 comps

 - Ghostbusters: Afterlife - .884x (3.67m)

 - TMNT (Total) - .684x (3.83m)

 - Eternals - .27x (2.56m)

 - Shang-Chi - .355x (3.13m)

 - Shazam 2 - 1.515x (5.15m)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Ghostbusters: FE	T-19	Jax	5	56	5	68	8,681	0.78%
		Phx	6	50	5	73	8,790	0.83%
		Ral	8	36	14	89	5,244	1.70%
	Total		19	142	24	230	22,715	1.01%

 

T-19 comps

 - Haunted Mansion (Total) - 1.15x (3.57m)

 - Shazam 2 - .764x (2.6m)

 - Suicide Squad - 1.211x (4.96m)

[charlie Jatinder]

21 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Oppy / Dune 2

1 - 3.12 / 2.88 tracked, actual may be 2.75. waiting for them.

2 - 2.05 / 1.68
3 - 1.65 / 1.35

 

Canada 2 chains - 0.93 / 0.93

3.63 actuals in MTC 1. Without early shows on SUN, may be some on WED, actuals be 2.7-2.75.

 

So it is 100% NOT 12M. 11-11.25M actuals. FRI is 20.5-20.75.

Edited March 2 by charlie Jatinder

[leoh]

9 hours ago, dallas said:

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire

 

Thursday Previews

 

T-20 

Tickets Sold: 114 (+26)

Growth: 30%

% PLF: 55%

5 theaters/28 showtimes

 

Comps:

(1.226x) of Dune 2 - $12.25 Million

 

Just a terrific start. I don't really have any other great comps to use because they all spit out to something crazy like >$50M. I'm not sure if this is over indexing or what, but this is very promising. Though I am to understand that Ghostbusters has a very big fanbase, so I wouldn't be surprised if this falls to the $5-6M range as we move closer to release. 

oh cool, it is also having pretty good pre sales in @TheFlatLannister and  @abracadabra1998 markets. It’s doing pretty well here in NY as well.

[leoh]

45 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

3.63 actuals in MTC 1. Without early shows on SUN, may be some on WED, actuals be 2.7-2.75.

 

So it is 100% NOT 12M. 11-11.25M actuals. FRI is 20.5-20.75.

Cool, so they will certainly report around 32M-32.5M as opening day, fitting in the extra money they made up for previews.

[Human]

Many Ghostbusters fans are older, but very committed.  I do not know if that means they will preorder early or not.  I am waiting to see if some of my family waits.  I also know I am off the opening Friday, but I do not know about the next few days.  

 

My brother is not a Ghostbusters fan, but he used to work at the theater, so he might go with me just for old times sake.  He loves the Dune book, but hates the first movie, so he might be motivated by insulting them by going to another March movie (when he hates a movie he hates it with everything).

[leoh]

Dune officially OD at 32.2M. 
 

this kinda confirms @charlie Jatinder theory of a round up for Thursday previews. 

[von Kenni]

10 hours ago, von Kenni said:

Dune Walkups Tomorrow for $80M OW

 

Based on MTC1 comps when comparing Dune 1 and Dune 2 performance the walkups today were even lousier than yesterday with previews in relative turns. For previews, Dune 2 had 133% of Dune 1 walkups and today 128%. Based on Dune 1 FRI BO and ATP differences true FRI expected value is $20.5M which is aligned with the public $30-34M estimates ($12M previews + $20.5M = $32.5M).

 

I made below three scenarios for SAT actuals based on Dune 1 comps. Presales are stellar 224% of Dune 1 but if the walkups tomorrow are as lousy as today, then SAT is around $25.9M, which would be 26.6% jump from true FRI but would need just -16.9% drop in order to reach that mystical $80M OW. It would need clearly better walkups (140% of Dune 1) to reach a feasible scenario for $80M OW. If the WOM is there and the other hoped dynamics, why not, but it needs to do much better than today in any case.

 

That said, take all this with a grain of salt. Based on MTC1 Dune 1 comps THU previews should be $9.1M and based on industry reports it's somewhere between $9.5M and $10M. So if it is underperforming here too, FRI actuals will be a little bit higher and the SAT walkups don't necessarily need to be better at all or just by little to reach that $80M. Anyways, it probably won't go below $76M unless the rest of the weekend walkups are considerably worse than today and the Sunday drop is more than -28%.

 

If the true FRI is $21M (MTC1 underperforming like with previews) then similar walkups as today and with Sunday drop under 25% it would be around $80M.

 

 

Adding the above here that I posted yesterday on the weekend thread. Should have posted here. Dune 1 MTC1 comps show $20.5M true Fri but if it underperformed with previews it might be some hundreds of thousands more or $21M. Interesting dynamics for Saturday based on MTC1 comps. If walkups are same relatively today compared to Dune 1, it should do $25.9M.

[leoh]

16 minutes ago, von Kenni said:

Adding the above here that I posted yesterday on the weekend thread. Should have posted here. Dune 1 MTC1 comps show $20.5M true Fri but if it underperformed with previews it might be some hundreds of thousands more or $21M. Interesting dynamics for Saturday based on MTC1 comps. If walkups are same relatively today compared to Dune 1, it should do $25.9M.

Based on WB official numbers true Friday was 20.2… so 25M is more likely than 26M. It’ll finish between 73M and 78M, depending on how big is Sunday drop (between 20% (best scenario) and 40% (worst scenario).

Edited March 2 by leoh

[von Kenni]

13 minutes ago, leoh said:

Based on WB official numbers true Friday was 20.2, not 20.5. (32.2 - 12 = 20.2)…

If the previews are/were exactly $12M and not e.g. $11.7M. But in any case the MTC1 is just an estimate and not 100% accurate. If it estimated $20.5M and actuals would be $20.2M close enough (less than 2% error of margin). But strange that it would underperform with previews and overperform here. Maybe someone who has better understanding of MTC1 composition could chip in. That said, the rounding of previews can explain it too.

Edited March 2 by von Kenni
Error margin

[leoh]

2 hours ago, von Kenni said:

If the previews are/were exactly $12M and not e.g. $11.7M. But in any case the MTC1 is just an estimate and not 100% accurate. If it estimated $20.5M and actuals would be $20.2M close enough. But strange that it would underperform with previews and overperform here. Maybe someone who has better understanding of MTC1 composition could chip in. That said, the rounding of previews can explain it too.

considering 25.5M for Dune 2 this Saturday, it’ll finish OW in between 73M and 78M, depending on how big Sunday drop is, between -20% (78M best scenario) and -40% (73M worst scenario).

 

Dune could have maximized these numbers should it has opened in Easter break (March 29). Idk why Warner Bros opted for GxK instead, which is a decline franchise with way less potential than Dune.

Edited March 2 by leoh

[cooldude97]

9 minutes ago, leoh said:

 

 

Dune could have maximized these numbers should it has opened in eastern break (March 29). Idk why Warner Bros opted for GxK instead, which is a decline franchise with way less potential than Dune.

Because Easter weekend is more for family/kids movies which GxK is much closer to than DUNE is and GxK is part of a cinematic universe that can go on as long as it wants where the creative head of the Dune franchise is calling it quits after the 3rd one ( plus the dune books after messiah are basically unfilmable) 

[ThomasNicole]

42 minutes ago, leoh said:

Based on WB official numbers true Friday was 20.2… so 25M is more likely than 26M. It’ll finish between 73M and 78M, depending on how big is Sunday drop (between 20% (best scenario) and 40% (worst scenario).

Charlie said the FRI was actually 20.5-20.7 

 

So the previews was actually lower than WB report 

[Inceptionzq]

20 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Alamo Drafthouse Dune Part 2

T-1 Saturday

579 Showings

32936

+5279

69129

ATP:

16.07

0.809	Barbie T-1	38.66M
1.510	Oppenheimer T-1	40.09M
2.532	Indiana Jones T-1	47.05M
1.192	Guardians T-1	46.33M
1.534	Avatar T-1	68.01M
1.118	Thor L&T T-1	47.09M
0.842	Doctor Strange 2 T-1	48.69M

2.735

Dune Part 1 T-1

37.53M

Alamo Drafthouse Dune Part 2

T-0 Saturday

576 Showings

36216

+3280

68275

ATP:

15.88

1.378	Dune Part 2 Friday	27.83M
0.821	Barbie T-0	39.28M
1.490	Oppenheimer T-0	39.56M
2.266	Indiana Jones T-0	42.11M

1.423	Avatar T-0	63.08M
1.050	Thor L&T T-0	44.22M
0.823	Doctor Strange 2 T-0	47.59M

2.462

Dune Part 1 T-0

33.78M

 

20 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Emagine Entertainment Dune Part 2

T-1 Saturday

329 Showings

10708

+2846

45873

1.027

Oppenheimer T-1

26.97M

Emagine Entertainment Dune Part 2

T-0 Saturday

327 Showings

13848

+3140

45702

1.466	Dune Part 2 Friday	29.62M
1.075	Oppenheimer T-0	28.23M

 

Numbers are from a few hours ago. Adjusting Drafthouse comps, excluding Dune Part 2 Friday, based on Friday numbers gives an average of 25.16M. Emagine Friday was pretty close, so I'll just leave it as is. Averaging all the comps out gives 26.18M.

[M37]

1 hour ago, von Kenni said:

If the previews are/were exactly $12M and not e.g. $11.7M. But in any case the MTC1 is just an estimate and not 100% accurate. If it estimated $20.5M and actuals would be $20.2M close enough (less than 2% error of margin). But strange that it would underperform with previews and overperform here. Maybe someone who has better understanding of MTC1 composition could chip in. That said, the rounding of previews can explain it too.

MTC1 has a higher market share on weekdays, lower on weekends (when more of the casuals come out, and other chains pick up), so the ratio/PSM math will change from Thur to Fri

 

(Charlie or Keyser can speak better to the details there)

[emoviefan]

One thing to keep in mind when it comes to GXK NE is monster movies tend to beat the tracking and have strong walkups. The Jurassic World movies all did. Godzilla 14 and Kong Skull Island both did.  Coming out on a holiday weekend will only help it. 

[Old Spice]

Crazy weather day in Salt Lake City with high winds and winter weather advisories in effect, but the spice is flowing at my non-PLF theater. Here what it looks like at the Cinemark Sugarhouse.

 

Screenings left between now and 10:15 PM: 13

Total available tickets: 709

Seats sold as of 1:20 PM MST: 562 (79.3%)

 

I don't have an exact comp from yesterday, but I would guesstimate we're looking at a 25% bump already. Morning shows were very busy as well.