The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, Shawn Robbins said:

Lots of theories to toss around, and I do wonder why Universal didn't play it a little safer and say $40m+ to the trades.

 

If we accept the premise that these are usually about setting expectations/working the refs to a degree, I'd say they're trying to project confidence in KP4 as well as work in an angle where THEY'RE GONNA BEAT DUNE 2 FOR NUMBER ONE, OMG!!  GO WATCH THIS NEW POPULAR FILM **THAT's GOING TO BEAT OUT DUNE 2, EVERYONE!!!!**!!

 

Ahem.

 

That is, might be that they're trying to build some buzz/show support for the film.  Dangerous play to make as no one ever likes seeing the "film X does less than expected" headlines, but seems to me that might be what they're doing here.

 

Or maybe their internal tracking is just showing something different. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯  But given how prevalent intentional undershooting for good headlines is in the industry, it is notable to see an optimistic projection no matter what the reason is.

 

(before anyone comments, projections from the studios last year for CBMs were likely based on faulty presumptions/being beholden to old data patterns/not catching up to new market realities — new market realities that shifted so relatively fast that they couldn't even play the expectations game, even if they wanted to [and they usually do])

[HummingLemon496]

I was expecting a Shazam (2023) level OW for Kung Fu Panda 4, but it turns out it will have a Shazam (2019) level OW 

[leoh]

Kung Fu Panda debuted with 77% on Rotten Tomatoes (its current score now).

 

So it’ll probably have a good WoM to help it to hit the 50M+ OW projected by Universal.

 

 

https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/kung_fu_panda_4
 

 

 

 

[el sid]

Kung Fu Panda 4, counted today for Thursday:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 119 (7 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 30 (6 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 30 (9 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 11 (6 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 58 (7 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 118 (9 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 287 (16 showtimes)

 

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 670.

My problem is that I counted Minions, Paw Patrol, Strange World and so on but for Friday and not for Thursday. Maybe I switch to Friday tomorrow.
But I found some older comps: Dolittle (925k from previews) had 245 sold tickets = 2.55M.
Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile (575k) had 106 = 3.65M.
Maleficent 2 (2.3M) had 945 = 1.65M.
And JWD (18M) had 3.821 = 3.15M.
(Wonka had 1 day later, on Thursday of its release week 1.209 sold tickets

and Migration had on the same day 185 sold tickets.)
 

Average: 2.75M. Some films are older so with inflation adjustment 3M+ at the moment.

But to be honest, I expected better numbers.

[TwoMisfits]

I'm just gonna put out there...

 

There were a lot of free tickets bought in normally "quiet" times for kid animated (like presale bumps don't take much to move "expectations" to higher tiers when you're 7 days out from a kid movie).  While their full price box office will be in opening weekend, they aren't really indicative of who will pay full price to show up OW, so they are gonna throw off all sorts of multipliers (T-X to T-O, T-O to walk ups, Thursday to weekend multiplier, etc).

 

These tickets aren't like TMobile or Angel Studios tickets, where folks still have them floating around all week as options.  They are over and done, more like the Atom deals that horror movies (and Ordinary Angels a few weeks ago) have given for free, but at a higher quantity.  This is probably the biggest movie to have done totally free in awhile.

 

So, keep an open mind when you think Thursday and then weekend.  This could really go anywhere b/c I don't think the early sales are sales in the truest sense, so this could still go from being Sound of Freedom (where free got the ball rolling) to Ordinary Angels (where it didn't)...

[Poseidon]

3 hours ago, Wafflecakes said:

Not sure what to make of the KFP4 apparent overperformance. With the gap between the last two installments, and the fact that before that grosses (in the US) were going down with each entry, it seems weird to have the pop up. I haven't heard that much chatter about it.

 

That said, I love the first 3 films so I am not complaining. I just don't think social media by itself can explain it.

I guess the Netflix Series made up for the big gap between movies. 

 

And still a thing: Families are desperate for new material. It's ridiculous, how Hollywood gave up on pretty much 2 quadrants, when they shipped kids movies and women material to Netflix. Not to mention, how a 4Q-Genre, comedy, was completely slaughtered and neglected.

Edited March 6 by Poseidon

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, TwoMisfits said:

I'm just gonna put out there...

 

There were a lot of free tickets bought in normally "quiet" times for kid animated (like presale bumps don't take much to move "expectations" to higher tiers when you're 7 days out from a kid movie).  While their full price box office will be in opening weekend, they aren't really indicative of who will pay full price to show up OW, so they are gonna throw off all sorts of multipliers (T-X to T-O, T-O to walk ups, Thursday to weekend multiplier, etc).

 

These tickets aren't like TMobile or Angel Studios tickets, where folks still have them floating around all week as options.  They are over and done, more like the Atom deals that horror movies (and Ordinary Angels a few weeks ago) have given for free, but at a higher quantity.  This is probably the biggest movie to have done totally free in awhile.

 

So, keep an open mind when you think Thursday and then weekend.  This could really go anywhere b/c I don't think the early sales are sales in the truest sense, so this could still go from being Sound of Freedom (where free got the ball rolling) to Ordinary Angels (where it didn't)...

 

Makes complete sense, as I did indeed see an unusually flat, especially for a GA-skewing film, Mon->Tue ticket buying pattern for KP4.  Saw relative flatness/tepid/al'ight growth in some other markets as well.  Admittedly it did do well in some other markets from what I recall.  But already showing signs of... atypical buying patterns for this type of film.

 

Last minute review drop is another curveball to factor in, FWIW.  Have to see how a T-1 drop affected things as well.

Edited March 6 by Porthos

[Jerri Blank-Diggler]

Box Office Pro's Weekend Box Office Forecast: 

https://www.boxofficepro.com/weekend-box-office-forecast-kung-fu-panda-4-debut-set-to-challenge-dune-part-twos-second-frame/

 

Film	Studio	3-Day Weekend Forecast	Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, March 10	3-Day % Change from Last Wknd
Kung Fu Panda 4	Universal Pictures	$48,300,000	$48,300,000	NEW
Dune: Part Two	Warner Bros. Pictures	$43,800,000	$152,900,000	-47%
Imaginary	Lionsgate	$10,600,000	$10,600,000	NEW
Bob Marley: One Love	Paramount Pictures	$5,800,000	$91,200,000	-22%
Cabrini	Angel Studios	$5,200,000	$5,200,000	NEW
Ordinary Angels	Lionsgate & Kingdom Story Company	$2,000,000	$16,000,000	-46%
Madame Web	Sony & Columbia Pictures	$1,800,000	$43,200,000	-43%
The Chosen: Season 4 Episodes 7 – 8	Fathom Events	$1,600,000	$7,300,000	-51%
Migration	Universal Pictures & Illumination	$1,500,000	$125,700,000	-40%
Wonka	Warner Bros. Pictures	$1,000,000	$218,200,000	-41%

[abracadabra1998]

21 hours ago, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Kung Fu Panda 4 (T-2):

Day: T-2	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 20 theaters	125	99	538	15906	3.38

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		47	16	8.74
MTC1:		278	28	51.67
Marcus:		83	30	15.43
Alamo:		34	6	6.32
Other chains:		143	35	26.58

 

Comps:

1.05x Wonka: $3.69 Million

1.59x Wish (TUE): $2.87 Million

1.19x Haunted Mansion (w/ EA): $3.68 Million

2.31x Migration: $3.46 Million

2.72x Trolls (THU): $3.53 Million

 

Average: $3.45 Million

 

Funky stuff at one of my theaters, with a suspect drop in tickets there, but seems legit for now so I'll keep it. All my comps circling around 3.5 and the average spitting out that exact number seems almost too true to be perfect, but it's such a nice round number that's what I'll go with for now... 

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Kung Fu Panda 4 (T-1):

Day: T-1	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 20 theaters	153	216	754	19436	3.88

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		75	28	9.95
MTC1:		394	116	52.25
Marcus:		122	39	16.18
Alamo:		52	18	6.9
Other chains:		186	43	24.67

 

 

Growth Rate (%):
1-Day:	40.15
3-Day:	120.47

 

Comps (1-day and 3-day growth rates in parentheses):

1.21x Wonka: $4.25 Million (21%, 69%)

1.75x Wish (TUE): $3.15 Million (27%, 65%)

1.19x Haunted Mansion (w/ EA): $3.68 Million (47%, 115%)

2.58x Migration: $3.72 Million (30%, 145%)

2.92x Trolls (THU): $3.8 Million (30%, 101%)

 

Average: $3.72 Million

 

I figured out what happened with that one theater, they just hid the existing showtimes for a day when they added the new ones, so today's sales are inflated by 11 tickets (same with yesterday's being deflated by 11). If I adjust for that the one-day growth rate actually becomes 35%.

 

Still a super strong day, of course, but I have to note that the MTC1 % is way higher than Migration (34%), Trolls (30%), or Wish (31%). Much more akin to Wonka's (57%), which I still think indicates less family and more adult interest, which might not be the best for walk-ups.

 

Still, based on my numbers, let's go with $3.7 Million, +/- 0.3. Maybe too bullish looking at others' numbers, but I gotta agree with @Porthos's mindset: I'll stick to my own guns!

Edited March 7 by abracadabra1998

[HummingLemon496]

The Keaton walk-ups have arrived 😭

[abracadabra1998]

21 hours ago, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Imaginary (T-2):

Day: T-2	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 20 theaters	35	15	90	3165	2.84

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		64	9	71.11
Marcus:		8	0	8.89
Alamo:		5	0	5.56
Other chains:		13	6	14.44

 

Comps:

0.63x Thanksgiving: $630k

0.33x Exorcist Believer: $940k

0.87x Last Voyage of the Demeter: $655k

0.5x Talk To Me (w/ EA): $625k

 

Average: $710k

 

Just doing absolutely nothing here.

 

Cabrini (T-2):

Day: T-2	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 20 theaters	30	17	299	2482	12.05

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		95	3	31.77
Marcus:		55	2	18.39
Alamo:		3	3	1
Other chains:		146	9	48.83

 

Comps:

1.29x After Death: $515k

Chosen S4 Eps 1-3: Missed

Chosen S4 Eps 4-6: Missed

Chosen S4 Eps 7-8: Missed

1.74x The Shift (w/ EA): $645k

 

Not at all seeing the breakout others mentioned as a possibility, but it's true Thursday previews are very limited here.

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Imaginary (T-1):

Day: T-1	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 20 theaters	36	15	105	3391	3.1

 

Growth Rate (%):
1-Day:	16.67
3-Day:	81.03

 

Comps (1-day and 3-day growth rates in parentheses):

0.59x Thanksgiving: $590k (24%, 89%)

0.31x Exorcist Believer: $885k (23%, 73%)

0.76x Last Voyage of the Demeter: $570k (34%, 130%) 

0.34x Talk To Me (w/ EA): $425k (38%, 145% --> Just Thursday)

1.28x The Invitation: $990k (N/A)

 

Average: $690k

 

My comps have a myriad of problems (Exorcist- known IP; Talk To Me- EA; The Invitation- less theaters tracked at the time). The ones that don't point to sub 600, but I'll go with $650k, +/- 50. Don't have a ton of PG-13 so I might be way off here though.

 

Cabrini (T-1):

Day: T-1	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 20 theaters	30	24	323	2482	13.01

 

 

Growth Rate (%):
1-Day:	8.03
3-Day:	29.72

 

Comps (1-day and 3-day growth rates in parentheses):

1.3x After Death: $520k (7%, 45%)

0.46x Chosen S4 Eps 1-3: $655k (N/A, 33%)

1.09x Chosen S4 Eps 4-6: $855k (N/A, 41%)

1.24x Chosen S4 Eps 7-8: $945k (N/A, 46%)

1.81x The Shift (w/ EA): $675k (4%, 23%)

 

Average: $730k

 

I think that average is too high, as this should behave less like the Chosen series (Opening Day, established IP) and more like a standard faith-based, limited-previews Angel Studios fare. I'll put this at $600k, +/- 50.

Edited March 7 by abracadabra1998

[Porthos]

27 minutes ago, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Kung Fu Panda 4 (T-1):

 

I still think indicates less family and more adult interest, which might not be the best for walk-ups.

 

Still, based on my numbers, let's go with $3.7 Million, +/- 0.3. Maybe too bullish looking at others' numbers, but I gotta agree with @Porthos's mindset: I'll stick to my own guns!

 

Welcome, brother, to the 

[keysersoze123]

One aspect in regards to comps is ATP. Wonka had much higher ATP than what Panda is having. Elemental, Trolls, Migration are great comps for sure as they also had similar ATP to what KFP will end up at. 

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

KUNG FU PANDA 4

 

Thursday

 

T-2

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
527	2617	103166	2.5%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

626

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

Orlando

SEATS SOLD

830

 

COMPS

T-2

 

(2.231x) of Migration $3.35M

 

COMP AVG: $3.35M

 

Migration is the only comp that's pointing to $3M+ so I'll just stick with that. Overall excellent day in Florida. 

FLORIDA 

 

KUNG FU PANDA 4

 

Thursday

 

T-1

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
527	3029	103166	2.9%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

412

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

Orlando

SEATS SOLD

946

 

COMPS

T-1

 

(2.070x) of Migration $3.10M

 

COMP AVG: $3.10M

 

Does look just like over $3M

[TheFlatLannister]

On 3/5/2024 at 7:28 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

Ghostbusters

 

Thursday 

 

T-15

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
478	2406	96731	2.5%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

69

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-15

(0.482x) of Dune 2 $4.45M  

 

Comps average: $4.45M

FLORIDA 

 

Ghostbusters

 

Thursday 

 

T-14

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
478	2573	96731	2.7%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

167

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-14

(0.508x) of Dune 2 $4.70M  

 

Comps average: $4.70M

[Porthos]

39 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

One aspect in regards to comps is ATP. Wonka had much higher ATP than what Panda is having. Elemental, Trolls, Migration are great comps for sure as they also had similar ATP to what KFP will end up at. 

 

Still think thanks to the nostalgia factor, KP4 will be a tick above the Trolls and Elementals of the world.  Closer to them than Wonka though, yeah there I'd agree.

 

If it wasn't for the "four tickets please" factor, I'd say Minions 2 might be nearly perfect.   Sonic 2 might be better in that regard, though probably still skewing more adult/teen than KP4. But we're also getting to the stage where the ATP hikes since then start to matter (as even though Minions 2 and Sonic 2 came out after the NWH/Bats related surge, probably still been drifting up a bit since then). 

 

If it wasn't so tepidly received   didn't have such a short presale window didn't have a ton of question marks around the reported preview number, Lightyear might be the best yet on a pure ATP factor.  But I made a vow long ago to never use that as an official comp, even though Shawn was told it was indeed accurate.  Might glance at it at final bell and see what it spits out for shits and giggles, but that's about it.

Edited March 7 by Porthos

[keysersoze123]

13 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Still think thanks to the nostalgia factor, KP4 will be a tick above the Trolls and Elementals of the world.  Closer to them than Wonka though, yeah there I'd agree.

 

If it wasn't for the "four tickets please" factor, I'd say Minions 2 might be nearly perfect.   Sonic 2 might be better in that regard, though probably still skewing more adult/teen than KP4. But we're also getting to the stage where the ATP hikes since then start to matter (as even though Minions 2 and Sonic 2 came out after the NWH/Bats related surge, probably still been drifting up a bit since then). 

 

If it wasn't so tepidly received   didn't have such a short presale window didn't have a ton of question marks around the reported preview number, Lightyear might be the best yet on a pure ATP factor.  But I made a vow long ago to never use that as an official comp, even though Shawn was told it was indeed accurate.  Might glance at it at final bell and see what it spits out for shits and giggles, but that's about it.

Lightyear had higher ATP than what I am seeing for Panda and Panda's ATP will keep going down with most sales being on 2D plus any discounts for kids tickets. Its not getting a proper PLF release. Dune is keeping most of them at MTC1 for sure. 

[Minnale101]

Looking at my threater and cinemas around me it feels like a lot of cineplex around me have so many late morning and after shows for kfp4

 

dune 2 gets all prime shows 

 

booking for Saturday and Sunday (spring break starts Monday for a lot of Canada)

 

it’s way better for movie than Thursday and Friday, obviously families aren’t going to threaters school day on Friday or Thursday afternoon shows 

 

I think Saturday will have great increase, we shall see

[dallas]

Kung Fu Panda 4

 

Thursday Previews

 

T-1

Tickets Sold: 97 (+25)

Growth: 35%

% PLF: n/a

5 theaters/38 showtimes

 

Comps:

(1.329x) of Migration - $1.99 Million

 

Oof. Terrible finish. Probably just under indexing here, but nonetheless it isn't a good sign. I'll go with $3.0M +/- $0.3M

[dallas]

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire

 

Thursday Previews

 

T-15

Tickets Sold: 157 (+13)

Growth: 9%

% PLF: 47%

5 theaters/26 showtimes

 

Comps:

(1.331x) of Dune 2 - $12.38 Million

 

Still not much change, just seeing some really solid presales. Dune probably isn't the best comp but every other comp I have spits out to at least $20M+ which is completely unrealistic lol. But honestly I expected this to start to fizzle out as we got closer to release, but it keeps growing at a solid pace each day so I'm honestly not sure.