The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[charlie Jatinder]

Subject to MTC1 actuals which I will get tomorrow, $9.25-9.4M previews.

 

Just to reiterate. The $10M number reported for previews is just $10M. We never get actual previews from the studio but they are just clubbed with opening day, for which we get actuals.
 

So this isn't a fudge like what Sony did last week for Ghostbusters where they inflated actual dailies for every day of the weekend. 

Edited March 29 by charlie Jatinder

[keysersoze123]

11 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Subject to MTC1 actuals which I will get tomorrow, $9.25-9.4M previews.

It does not matter. We are all predicting what the studio will report 🙂 Past few weeks we are always arguing around real "previews". 

 

That said I am surprised by sub 9.5m which means other major MTC did not do well despite Good Friday. 

[charlie Jatinder]

8 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

It does not matter. We are all predicting what the studio will report 🙂 Past few weeks we are always arguing around real "previews". 

@Porthos you failed us. Shame on you.

 

 

8 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

 

That said I am surprised by sub 9.5m which means other major MTC did not do well despite Good Friday. 

 

Yeah MTC2 is around $200K less than what I was expecting.

Edited March 29 by charlie Jatinder

[TwoMisfits]

2 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

@Porthos you failed us. Shame on you.

 

 

 

Yeah MTC2 is around $200K less than what I was expecting.

 

So my locals look wasn't crazy:)...

[jeffthehat]

23 hours ago, jeffthehat said:

Malco

Godzilla X Kong: New Empire T-0

Day	Sales	Seats	Shows
Thu	1516	11858	68

Thu Comps

1.18x Ghostbusters FE T-0 = $5.6m

0.67x Dune 2 T-0 = $6.7m

1.17x HG BoSS T-0 (10 theater) = $6.7m

1.14x Marvels T-0 (10 theater) = $7.5m

2.60x Wonka T-0 (10 theater) = $9.2m

 

THU AVG = $7.14m

---

Adding 10 theater comps brings the average up here. Overall the data I've got from Malco and Indiana hasn't seemed strong, suggesting weakness in the midwest/south for this. But like M37 said, releases from the past 6 months have skewed frontloaded/fan-driven. And I've only been tracking for that long. So could just be a mirage. Def interested to see where this ends up. 

Malco

Godzilla X Kong: New Empire T-0

Day	Sales	Seats	Shows
Fri	5383	N/A	235

Comps

1.18x Dune 2 T-0 = $23.8m

3.56x GxK NE Thu T-0 = $35.6m (lol)

---

Had issues with my script but managed to hand count sales for the errors. Crazy amount of shows today. Thinking high 20s 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 3/28/2024 at 10:31 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Santikos Tracking

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold
T-0	Godzilla x Kong	PLF	31	454	2,088	7,480	27.91%
		Standard	70	479	1,149	8,153	14.09%
	Total		101	933	3,237	15,633	20.71%

 

T-0 unadjusted comps

 - Jurassic World 3 - .362x (6.52m) 

 - Top Gun 2 - .633x (9.3m)

 - Fantastic Beasts 3 - 1.606x (9.64m)

 - Avatar 2 - .576x (9.79m)

 - Ghostbusters FE - 3.4x (14.96m)

 - Morbius - 1.643x (9.37m)

 - Batman (Total) - .408x (8.82m)

 - Dune 2 - 1.5x (13.875m)

 

Jurassic World over-indexed in Santikos so I'm thinking this one probably will too.  Since these are unadjusted, I could see anywhere from 8m to 9m depending on how much this over-indexes. 

Santikos Tracking

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold
T-0	Godzilla x Kong (Fri)	3D	21	286	286	2,180	13.12%
		PLF	45	4,626	4,626	11,367	40.70%
		Standard	113	3,238	3,238	12,991	24.92%
	Total		179	8,150	8,150	26,538	30.71%

 

Friday T-0 unadjusted comps

 - JW3 - .546x (22.72m)

 - TG2 - .965x (31.56m)

 - FB3 - 2.452x (34.39m)

 - Avatar 2 - 1.013x (36.66m)

 - Batman - .828x (28.98m)

 - Dune 2 - 2.152x (43.49m)

 - Oppenheimer - 1.861x (41.9m)

 

Adjusted comps (using 9.4m preview)

 - JW3 - 32.77m

 - TG2 - 31.89m

 - FB3 - 33.54m

 - Avatar 2 - 35.19m

 - Batman - 30.87m

 - Dune 2 - 29.46m

 - Oppenheimer - 26.57m

 

Uhh, well, I'm not trying to get everyone's expectations up but... I gotta go with

Spoiler

30m+ true Friday.

 

[keysersoze123]

11 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

WOW. should clear 375K I guess, on high end 390K type may be. $26M+ OD be done deal with that. I can see $28M+.

Definitely looking like it. Just earlyin the morning and its almost at 200K !!! 30m True Friday as @katnisscinnaplex also is seeing. I think with previews being rounded up, OD will be 39m ish. 

[M37]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

It does not matter. We are all predicting what the studio will report 🙂 Past few weeks we are always arguing around real "previews"

Fwiw, it matters to me. I’m not seeking to read a studio’s mind and project what they will report, unless explicitly stated

 

I believe in the tracking process, and in seeking precision, which means having a good idea of the “real previews” on which to base future comps (and IMs). Same goes for EA shows. I get that they’re always an estimate, and rounding up from say $16.7 to $17M isn’t a big deal. But this is now looking like twice in a row WB hasn’t rounded up so much as fudged up, more than $500K on a sub-$10M value, and sandwiched around Sony messing around with GBFE OW

 

If studios are going to keep getting fast and loose with “official” numbers, I’m going to lose my taste for this real quickly, like betting into a rigged game 

[keysersoze123]

20 minutes ago, M37 said:

Fwiw, it matters to me. I’m not seeking to read a studio’s mind and project what they will report, unless explicitly stated

 

I believe in the tracking process, and in seeking precision, which means having a good idea of the “real previews” on which to base future comps (and IMs). Same goes for EA shows. I get that they’re always an estimate, and rounding up from say $16.7 to $17M isn’t a big deal. But this is now looking like twice in a row WB hasn’t rounded up so much as fudged up, more than $500K on a sub-$10M value, and sandwiched around Sony messing around with GBFE OW

 

If studios are going to keep getting fast and loose with “official” numbers, I’m going to lose my taste for this real quickly, like betting into a rigged game 

My feeling based on 2.7m ish MTC1 was 9.7m. Ratio will be lower as its almost like a friday than a thursday. But MTC2 seems to have disappointed. So it went lower. 

[M37]

2 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Opening Weekend Comp

Godzilla x Kong - 125,011 (3,252 TC) (32,612 PLF)

 - Ghostbusters: FE - 118,945 (3,428) (12,420)

 - Indiana Jones - 118,208 (3,707) (17,273)

 - Transformers - 119,071 (3,183) (32,449)

 - Jurassic World 3 - 181,854 (3,848) (35,828)

 - Black Adam - 138,408 (3,499) (15,518)

 - Dune 2 - 136,042 (3,378) (14,027)

 - Morbius - 134,155 (3,418) (15,270)

 - Halloween Ends - 123,861 (3,298) (14,291)

GxK looks underscreened, even compared to similar overpeformers Black Adam and Transformers. Hoping theaters adjust after Fri and we don’t see capacity limiting that potential $30M TFri

 

(this btw is one way that a studio lowball on forecast can actually bite them in the ass, wanting too much to “beat expectations” rather than ensure enough seats are actual available to meet demand)

[Schlorgan]

Starting to think A or even A+ for Cinemascore is where we're gonna end up at this point

[Menor the Destroyer]

6 minutes ago, Schlorgan said:

Starting to think A or even A+ for Cinemascore is where we're gonna end up at this point

Certainly not A+

[thajdikt]

6 minutes ago, Schlorgan said:

Starting to think A or even A+ for Cinemascore is where we're gonna end up at this point

There’s absolutely no way the movie gets an A+. That’s ridiculously hard to get. A/A- more likely 

[Porthos]

Look, I don't feel like getting into a debate about what "real" preview numbers are.  Maybe I'm too old for that shit.  Maybe I think what we do, while damn great, is still only capturing a piece of the puzzle.  Maybe it's just because it's damn unwinnable game so why even attempt to play?  This is a similar feeling to what @M37 feels, I suspect, but I'm reaching a different conclusion from a similar sentiment.

 

What I can say is this wasn't the post I was expecting to type up between seeing the 10m reported number from the headline on the WE thread, seeing my name tagged in here and actually reading the last few posts made here.

 

(I was expecting to make a post about not being able to fully capture walkups in the way I do my sampling and compare it to walkup monsters like Let There Be Carnage and Rise of Gru)

 

I get that we take a lot of pride in what we do. I also get as data-based nerds (said with affection, BTW) that we think we're "right".

 

But you know what? Can't say I care enough to "prove it".  Reported numbers are what they are.  Besides, my natural inclination is took look under the hood and figure out what I can do to be better. Or acknowledge in some situations the way I personally sample things, I can't measure the crest of the incoming wave because it's too damn high (the downside of sampling at 4pm versus, say 8pm or 9pm [which as an aside IS NEVER HAPPENING].

 

Hell, maybe we just have to adjust to a new temporary meta.  Wasn't that long ago that we were sorta-but-not-really joking about Disney always rounding up in increments of .5m on any previews above 10m (which TLM promptly ruined).

 

In the end?  Look, maybe WB is fudging and maybe it isn't.  Maybe they are flat out lying in an attempt to chase better Trades headlines.  It's something I can't prove.  Or at least prove to my satisfaction. Emphasis on the phrase "my satisfaction".

 

As such, just gonna keep doing what I do, and tinker as necessary.  Maybe mentally bump up WB numbers for a short while, maybe not.  In the end, that's the only thing I can control. 

[keysersoze123]

We can call it WB Tax for any movie that will add 0.5m to previews 🙂 Again even Charlie cannot be 100% sure as not all numbers are even in comscore. It could be some museum imax or Puerto Rico or some other location boosting BO 🙂

Edited March 29 by keysersoze123

[kayumanggi]

 

[charlie Jatinder]

As long as FRI actuals are not fudged, I have no problem with previews being off. There are also chances of previews reported being lower than actuals, so its just like any estimates Studios provide.

 

Fortunately we have data to estimate closer to accurate previews, we are getting data anyways no matter what studio reports, its all good.

[Eric the Ape]

Quorum Updates

Unsung Hero T-29: 15.1%

The Strangers - Chapter 1 T-50: 29.44%

The Crow T-71: 27.97%

The Bikeriders T-85: 17.23%

Alien: Romulus T-141: 31.25%

Piece by Piece T-197: 17.67%

 

Godzilla X Kong: The New Empire T-1: 65.13% Awareness

Final Awareness: 100% chance of 20M, 91% chance of 30M, 87% chance of 40M, 74% chance of 50M, 61% chance of 60M, 48% chance of 70M, 35% chance of 80M, 30% chance of 100M

Tentpole Awareness: 100% chance of 30M, 88% chance of 40M, 78% chance of 60M, 44% chance of 70M, 33% chance of 80M, 22% chance of 100M

 

The First Omen T-8: 37.7% Awareness

Final Awareness: 37% chance of 10M, 5% chance of 20M

Horror Awareness: 42% chance of 10M, 8% chance of 20M

 

Monkey Man T-8: 32.48% Awareness

Final Awareness: 37% chance of 10M, 5% chance of 20M

Low Awareness: 23% chance of 10M, 4% chance of 20M

 

The Garfield Movie T-57: 39.73% Awareness

T-60 Awareness: 92% chance of 10M, 71% chance of 20M, 50% chance of 30M, 17% chance of 40M, 12% chance of 50M, 8% chance of 70M, 4% chance of 100M

Animation/Family Awareness: 100% chance of 20M

[interiorgatordecorator]

5 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Subject to MTC1 actuals which I will get tomorrow, $9.25-9.4M previews.

 

Just to reiterate. The $10M number reported for previews is just $10M. We never get actual previews from the studio but they are just clubbed with opening day, for which we get actuals.
 

So this isn't a fudge like what Sony did last week for Ghostbusters where they inflated actual dailies for every day of the weekend. 

 

if they can +600k for monsters, why didnt they go +300k for flash?

[keysersoze123]

2 hours ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

 

if they can +600k for monsters, why didnt they go +300k for flash?

According to Charlie they went +750K for Dune 2. So why not 600K for Zilla. Flash WB just gave up and did not want to do anything.