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Shawn Robbins

The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

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3 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

No it is NOT that simple.  It only means they didn't want this one.  Doesn't mean a different one might strike a chord and take off.

 

Frankly, history is littered with well reviewed mainstream movies that didn't click initially for whatever reason, only to be "found" later.

 

(and, no, ain't gonna go trawling through BOM/the-numbers to find examples)

You are right. It's just one movie. I am not even sure why I care that much. Have not seen the movie yet.Plan to this weekend and hope I really enjoy it and agree with the positive reviews. I think I am just going down the rabbit hole of how terrible the  BO is right now and really hoped it would break out and give some life to the marketplace. Maybe the walkups will surprise and it will have great WOM and legs or maybe it will get beat by TPM this weekend. Will see.

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3 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

No it is NOT that simple.  It only means they didn't want this one.  Doesn't mean a different one might strike a chord and take off.

 

Frankly, history is littered with well reviewed mainstream movies that didn't click initially for whatever reason, only to be "found" later.

 

(and, no, ain't gonna go trawling through BOM/the-numbers to find examples)

 

When I said "literally" I meant quite literally as the phrase "you can lead a horse to water, but you can't make it drink" is almost a thousand years old (cursory Google glances suggests that the proverb dates back to the 1100s).  

 

Sure, movies ain't that old but the phenomenon I'm describing here sure as hell is.

 

If we want to turn it around to something more recent, then as William Goldman once noted, "Nobody Knows Anything".

 

Quote

“Nobody knows anything...... Not one person in the entire motion picture field knows for a certainty what's going to work. Every time out it's a guess and, if you're lucky, an educated one.”

 

True for making movies as well as trying to figure our just why the GA likes some movies and not others.  

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1 minute ago, Porthos said:

 

When I said "literally" I meant quite literally as the phrase "you can lead a horse to water, but you can't make it drink" is almost a thousand years old (cursory Google glances suggests that the proverb dates back to the 1100s).  

 

Sure, movies ain't that old but the phenomenon I'm describing here sure as hell is.

 

If we want to turn it around to something more recent, then as William Goldman once noted, "Nobody Knows Anything".

 

 

True for making movies as well as trying to figure our just why the GA likes some movies and not others.  

Ryan Gosling should be used to this. Probably having flashback to the NIce Guys which some have compared the Fall Guy to. All the buzz and great reviews and audiences just did not care one bit. The Fall Guy will do better for sure but it is also a bigger budgeted movie with higher expectations. 

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1 minute ago, emoviefan said:

You are right. It's just one movie. I am not even sure why I care that much. Have not seen the movie yet.Plan to this weekend and hope I really enjoy it and agree with the positive reviews. I think I am just going down the rabbit hole of how terrible the  BO is right now and really hoped it would break out and give some life to the marketplace. Maybe the walkups will surprise and it will have great WOM and legs or maybe it will get beat by TPM this weekend. Will see.

 

Hey, we all get angsty, so I get it.  And it hasn't exactly been sunshine and roses since Dune: Part Two.

 

But one thing that comes with age is seeing things repeat over and over and over again (this is one thing the reimagining of BSG nailed).  And so I can be a bit more... sanguine?  Yeah, let's go with sanguine about it all.  

 

Maybe in 12 to 18 months I won't be quite as chill about it all. But I just think this is one of those "lulls" for lack of a better term.

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After we saw Fall Guy my brother theorized that the film's low interest may be down to it being a movie about making movies. I wonder if there isn't some truth to that and why even the overwhelmingly positive reviews aren't having any real effect.

 

I think the movie has a strong message when it comes to filmmaking and recognizing stunt performers in particular, but the initial pitch doesn't seem to be incentivizing people to check it out.

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2 minutes ago, MrFanaticGuy34 said:

Wonder how ”Star Wars: The Phantom Menace” re-release will do compared to the other re-releases we had recently? 🤷🏻‍♀️

 

17 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie Day Area TC Shows New Sold Seats % Sold
Fall Guy T-3 Jax 6 37 7 50 6,318 0.79%
    Phx 7 24 10 82 4,147 1.98%
    Ral 8 30 13 83 4,641 1.79%
  Total   21 91 30 215 15,106 1.42%
Fall Guy (EA) T-2 Jax 5 10 11 69 2,007 3.44%
    Phx 1 2 3 31 618 5.02%
    Ral 2 2 10 47 412 11.41%
  Total   8 14 24 147 3,037 4.84%
Phantom Menace (Re) (OD) T-4 Jax 5 30 212 212 2,765 7.67%
    Phx 6 19 240 240 2,195 10.93%
    Ral 7 28 283 283 3,036 9.32%
  Total   18 77 735 735 7,996 9.19%
Tarot T-3 Jax 5 21 3 13 1,752 0.74%
    Phx 6 16 0 15 2,534 0.59%
    Ral 7 19 0 8 2,550 0.31%
  Total   18 56 3 36 6,836 0.53%

 

Phantom Menace (OD) T-4 adjusted comps 

 - Ghostbusters Afterlife (Total) - .915x (3.58m)

 - Ghostbusters: FE - 1.094x (3.95m)

 - Transformers 6 (Total) - .489x (3.45m)

 - F9 - .592x (3.65m)

 - Morbius - .748x (3.58m)

 - Indiana Jones - .586x (3.46m)

 

Comparing OD to previews will skew things a little, but not many options here.

 

From a couple of pages back.

 

Believe it or not, I'm not actually in the wheelhouse for this re-release (as TPM is my least favorite SW film), but there are a couple of things in play here that could work in TPMs favor.

 

For one, we do have the unofficial "SW Holiday" coming up on Saturday ("May the 4th"), which will boost sales on that day. 

 

For two, there's gonna be a preview of sorts for an upcoming Disney Plus show The Acolyte.  If it's anything like the one for Andor, it's only going to be a few minutes long at most, but that could be adding sales around the margins. 

 

Most importantly though, there's honest to goodness nostalgia plus folks who grew up after TPM debuted deciding to see it on the big screen for the first time.

 

Frontloadedness is always a concern for these types of releases, even in the pre-sale department of comps.  So how it does after Saturday is gonna be.. interesting. As well as how well pre-sales are between now and Friday.

 

Either way though, looks to be one of the more successful ones.  Perhaps the most successful since Avatar's re-release?  Haven't really kept track with all of the re-releases lately so I don't know what the current bar is.  Can't find that info easily enough, though I'm sure people here can let me know what the most successful have been since Avatar's re-release a couple of years ago.

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15 minutes ago, Boxofficerules said:

Didn't they rerelease The Phantom Menace before and it did poorly. I remember the plan was to re release all of them in 3D but Phantom Menace did so poorly they scrapped the rest.

 

That was a 3D release and released when anti-prequel fervor was still pretty prevalent. 

 

Still, that managed to pull in $22m "OW", which not nearly as high as the glory days of the Special Editions wasn't exactly chopped liver, either.  Did only get to 43.4m DOM, so does show the frontloadness factor of this type of thing.

 

But that also might have been one of the canaries in the coal mine about how the days of re-releases doing huge huge bucks at the box office were over (or at least fading fast) plus the emergent backlash to 3D. 

 

Might have been overlooked thanks to TPM being an... imperfect messenger.  But, then again, Terminator 2's 3D release came five years later and utterly bombed, so....

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Star Wars: The Phantom Menace MiniTC2 T-3 Days

 

Friday - 1840/21533 (116 showings) $22K
Saturday - 2962/23072 (121 showings) $44K

 

Surprised by SAT being so ahead in sales. Wonder if this is universally the case or just MiniTC2.

 

Comps (FRI)

1.57x of Avatar gross - $5.2M

1.73x Titanic - $4.7M

 

Depending on how wide the release is, can see $3M+ FRI, may be even $4M.

Edited by charlie Jatinder
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Quick and Dirty The Fall Guy Sacramento Report [T-3]

543/17902 (3.03% sold) [EA: 151/2921 | Thr: 392/14981] 121 showings.

 

0.27452x  RotB at T-3      [2.42m]
0.41513x  BOSS at T-3     [2.39m]
0.62847x Wonka at T-3    [2.20m]
0.50000x Aqua 2 at T-3   [2.25m]
0.55498x  GB:FE at T-3    [2.60m]

 

====

 

Didn't have time to pull numbers last night, so no Daily Pace info.  I also know that some folks like separating out EA from Thr, but eh.  Not gonna put the effort into it for this one.  RotB is an interesting 1:1 though, since it's EA was one day before previews.  Though the difference between a high 8s preview film and one that is in the 2-4 range is pretty stark.

 

Threw in a semi-random sample of movie comps, mostly cribbed off of @abracadabra1998's list plus a couple of others I had.  Anyone wants to throw in suggestions for sub 5m previews, I'm game.  If I happen to have them that is.  Could just be doing poorly here, though 2.5m combined is broadly in line with Minneapolis as well as Florida.

 

Have a better sense of things when I have actual pace info starting tomorrow.

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34 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Star Wars: The Phantom Menace MiniTC2 T-3 Days

 

Friday - 1840/21533 (116 showings) $22K
Saturday - 2962/23072 (121 showings) $44K

 

Surprised by SAT being so ahead in sales. Wonder if this is universally the case or just MiniTC2.

 

Comps (FRI)

1.57x of Avatar gross - $5.2M

1.73x Titanic - $4.7M

 

Depending on how wide the release is, can see $3M+ FRI, may be even $4M.


"May the 4th Be With You" started out as an internet joke, but it has actually and honest for truly evolved into a semi-official holiday/observance for all things Star Wars-y.

 

...

 

Yes, my tribe is kinda weird that way.  What can I say?  It's actually one of the purer/nicer things we've come up with on our own with very little prodding from Lucasfilm/Disney.

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22 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

The Fall Guy, Western GTA (Southern Ontario), T-4, Thursday previews and Wednesday EA

 

Total Sales: 29

New Sales: 4

Growth: 16%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 12

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 2.1

Ticket premium in effect: Yes

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Early Evening: 24/6

Late Evening: 5/6

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

 

Dolby: 20/6

IMAX: 4/4

4DX: 5/2

 

EA sales

Total: 58

Showtimes: 6

Theatres: 5

 

Comps (Previews only, no EA)

0.403x Wonka for $1.4M

0.349x GB:FE for $1.6M

0.094x GxK for $0.9M

0.099x HG:BoSS for $0.6M

Avg: $1.1M

 

Another ho hum day at a point where even walk up friendly films start seeing some movement.

 

The Fall Guy, Western GTA (Southern Ontario), T-3, Thursday previews and Wednesday EA

 

Total Sales: 48

New Sales: 19

Growth: 66%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 12

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 3.4

Ticket premium in effect: Yes

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Early Evening: 36/6

Late Evening: 12/6

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

 

Dolby: 31/6

IMAX: 6/4

4DX: 10/2

 

EA sales

Total: 61

Showtimes: 6

Theatres: 5

 

Comps (Previews only, no EA)

0.533x Wonka for $1.9M

0.539x GB:FE for $2.5M

0.119x GxK for $1.2M

0.149x HG:BoSS for $0.9M

Avg: $1.6M

 

A good day, although it's more about the law of small numbers. 66% growth is nice, but not that impressive when your baseline is so small.

 

Still, it's nice to see some life here.

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22 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, T-11 Thursday previews and Wednesday EA shows, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 51

New Sales: 10

Growth: 24%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 16

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 3.2

Ticket premium in effect: Yes

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Late Afternoon: 3/3

Early Evening: 43/7

Late Evening: 5/6

 

Sales by Format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 21/7

IMAX: 19/6

VIP: 11/3

 

EA shows 

Sales: 26

Theatres: 4

Showtimes: 4

New Sales: 2

 

Comps (excludes EA unless stated)

1.167x Fall Guy (both with EA and preview)

0.100x Dune 2 for $1.0M

0.927x GB:FE for $4.4M

0.302x GxK for $3.0M

0.386x HG: BoSS for $2.2M

 

Average: $2.6M

 

It actually had a decent day. It's still lagging, but hopefully things pick up soon.

 

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, T-10 Thursday previews and Wednesday EA shows, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 58

New Sales: 7

Growth: 14%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 16

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 3.6

Ticket premium in effect: Yes

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Late Afternoon: 3/3

Early Evening: 48/7

Late Evening: 7/6

 

Sales by Format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 27/7

IMAX: 19/6

VIP: 11/3

 

EA shows 

Sales: 26

Theatres: 4

Showtimes: 4

New Sales: 2

 

Comps (excludes EA unless stated)

1.273x Fall Guy (both with EA and preview)

0.106x Dune 2 for $1.1M

1.036x GB:FE for $4.9M

0.320x GxK for $3.2M

0.392x HG: BoSS for $2.3M

 

Average: $2.8M

 

Okay day. 

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On 4/29/2024 at 6:29 AM, vafrow said:

IF, D1, T-18 Thursday previews, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 0

New Sales: NA

Growth: NA

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 14

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 0.0

Ticket premium in effect: No

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Early Evening: 0/7

Late Evening: 0/7

 

Sales by Format (sales/showtimes)

Regular: 0/6

Dolby: 0/4

VIP: 0/4

 

I think this only went up overnight, so it's not too odd to have zero sales. I wanted to at least put a marker down to track for a few days to see if this is resonating at all.

 

IF, D2, T-17 Thursday previews, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 0

New Sales: 0

Growth: 0

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 14

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 0.0

Ticket premium in effect: No

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Early Evening: 0/7

Late Evening: 0/7

 

Sales by Format (sales/showtimes)

Regular: 0/6

Dolby: 0/4

VIP: 0/4

 

Still no sales. I might next report back on the weekend unless I start seeing some movement. There doesn't appear to be much up front interest here.

 

Edit:

 

I went back and tried to pull from a wider area. For a 100 km radius (which captures the whole broader region, probably about an 8M population base), it's sold 11 tickets.

 

I do have data that I pulled from the first few days of The Haunted Mansion, which sold 7 tickets in that radius. That would technically give this a comp of $4.9M, but I'd take that with a grain of salt. Haunted Mansion did ramp up near the end, but I'm pretty sure it underindexed here overall. Plus, it went on sale earlier. I'm using T-26 data versus T-17 for IF. 

 

I also would expect that a Ryan Reynolds movie plays a little stronger up here. He leans in hard in his Canadian identity,

Edited by vafrow
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3 hours ago, Boxofficerules said:

Didn't they rerelease The Phantom Menace before and it did poorly. I remember the plan was to re release all of them in 3D but Phantom Menace did so poorly they scrapped the rest.

They were cancelled because of the Disney buyout. 2 and 3 were still supposed to come out in the fall of 2013 up until Lucasfilm was made to shift gears to focus on Force Awakens.

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Gonna try some amateur local tracking because I am sort of interested in how this is playing starting out:

 

IF (Thursday-Sunday)

 

Cinemark Cuyahoga Falls - 4 tickets sold
Cinemark Tinseltown North Canton - 23 tickets sold
Cinemark Bistro North Canton - 7 tickets sold
Cinemark Valley View - 21 tickets sold

 

I don't believe Cinemark had any one-day only promos yesterday like Regal did, so I feel like this level of unadulterated upfront interest is pretty notable for an original family movie

 

 

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22 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie Day Area TC Shows New Sold Seats % Sold
Fall Guy T-3 Jax 6 37 7 50 6,318 0.79%
    Phx 7 24 10 82 4,147 1.98%
    Ral 8 30 13 83 4,641 1.79%
  Total   21 91 30 215 15,106 1.42%
Fall Guy (EA) T-2 Jax 5 10 11 69 2,007 3.44%
    Phx 1 2 3 31 618 5.02%
    Ral 2 2 10 47 412 11.41%
  Total   8 14 24 147 3,037 4.84%
Phantom Menace (Re) (OD) T-4 Jax 5 30 212 212 2,765 7.67%
    Phx 6 19 240 240 2,195 10.93%
    Ral 7 28 283 283 3,036 9.32%
  Total   18 77 735 735 7,996 9.19%
Tarot T-3 Jax 5 21 3 13 1,752 0.74%
    Phx 6 16 0 15 2,534 0.59%
    Ral 7 19 0 8 2,550 0.31%
  Total   18 56 3 36 6,836 0.53%

 

Fall Guy (Total) T-3 adjusted comps

 - Jungle Cruise - 1.51x (4.25m)

 - Bullet Train (Total) - .58x (2.73m)

 - Cocaine Bear - 1.49x (3.52m)

 - Civil War - 1.21x (3.52m)

 - Free Guy - 1.19x (2.71m)

 - Ticket to Paradise (Total) - missed

 - Lost City (Total) - .797x (3.13m)

 - Equalizer 3 - .971x (3.69m)

 

Size adjusted comps - 3.27m

 

Movie 3-day pace Prev 3-day Prev 3-day Last Day
Fall Guy Total 45.38% 23.69% 12.11% 17.53%
Jungle Cruise 38.95% 29.07% 31.97% 17.16%
Bullet Train + EA 44.78% 29.23% 27.21% 18.86%
Cocaine Bear 49.08% 9.82% 11.56% -
Civil War 53.61% 38.66% 26.05% 17.79%
Free Guy 50.25% 51.23% - 9.71%
Lost City Total 64.49% 26.45% - 16.71%
Equalizer 3 48.02% 38.89% 31.17% 16.20%

 

The last few days it has been on track with comps.  Hoping for +30-35% tomorrow

 

Tarot T-3 adjusted comps

 - M3GAN - missed

 - Abigail - .486x (486k)

 - Talk to Me - .353x (439k)

 - The First Omen - 1.091x (791k)

 - Invitation - .878x (697k)

 - Immaculate - 1.161x (639k)

 

Size adjusted comps - 688k

 

Phantom Menace (OD) T-4 adjusted comps 

 - Ghostbusters Afterlife (Total) - .915x (3.58m)

 - Ghostbusters: FE - 1.094x (3.95m)

 - Transformers 6 (Total) - .489x (3.45m)

 - F9 - .592x (3.65m)

 - Morbius - .748x (3.58m)

 - Indiana Jones - .586x (3.46m)

 

Comparing OD to previews will skew things a little, but not many options here.

Movie Day Area TC Shows New Sold Seats % Sold
Fall Guy T-2 Jax 6 41 14 64 6,848 0.93%
    Phx 7 24 4 86 4,147 2.07%
    Ral 8 32 10 93 4,817 1.93%
  Total   21 97 28 243 15,812 1.54%
Fall Guy (EA) T-1 Jax 5 10 10 79 2,007 3.94%
    Phx 1 2 -2 29 618 4.69%
    Ral 2 2 6 53 412 12.86%
  Total   8 14 14 161 3,037 5.30%
Phantom Menace (Re) (OD) T-3 Jax 5 30 31 243 2,754 8.82%
    Phx 6 19 17 257 2,195 11.71%
    Ral 7 32 20 303 3,388 8.94%
  Total   18 81 68 803 8,337 9.63%
Tarot T-2 Jax 5 22 1 14 1,846 0.76%
    Phx 6 16 -2 13 2,534 0.51%
    Ral 7 23 3 11 2,764 0.40%
  Total   18 61 2 38 7,144 0.53%

 

Fall Guy (Total) T-2 adjusted comps

 - Jungle Cruise - 1.23x (3.45m)

 - Bullet Train (Total) - .52x (2.43m)

 - Cocaine Bear - 1.25x (2.96m)

 - Civil War - 1.07x (3.1m)

 - Free Guy - 1.15x (2.63m)

 - Ticket to Paradise (Total) - 2.01x (2.67m)

 - Lost City (Total) - .719x (2.82m)

 - Equalizer 3 - .892x (3.39m)

 

Size adjusted comps - 2.91m

 

I was hoping for +30% and it only grew 11.6%... I don't know what to say that hasn't already been said.  I don't see any reason to think it grows from here.  Hopefully it levels out though and can at least hit 2.5m.  Free Guy is the closest comp in terms of daily and 3-day growth so maybe that comp stays flat.  It only had +15% next day as well while most of the others were 30-40% growth again.  Here's a look at how the comps have been falling over the past five days:

 

Day: T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6
Fall Guy Total          
Jungle Cruise 1.232 1.515 1.510 1.508 1.448
Bullet Train + EA 0.516 0.580 0.587 0.573 0.578
Cocaine Bear 1.255 1.490     1.528
Civil War 1.069 1.215 1.217 1.179 1.284
Free Guy 1.151 1.187 1.108 1.134 1.227
Paradise Total 2.010     3.375 3.557
Lost City Total 0.719 0.797 0.792 0.783 0.902
Equalizer 3 0.892 0.971 0.960 0.964 0.988

 

Tarot T-2 adjusted comps

 - M3GAN - .174x (477k)

 - Abigail - .413x (413k)

 - Talk to Me - .275x (343k)

 - The First Omen - .731x (530k)

 - Invitation - .567x (450k)

 - Immaculate - .905x (498k)

 

Size adjusted comps - 494k

 

I think the pace chart says it all for this one.  Pretty tarotble

 

Movie 3-day pace Prev 3-day Prev 3-day Last Day
Tarot 31.03% 31.03% 100.00% 5.56%
Abigail 91.67% 33.33% 18.75% 24.32%
Talk to Me 86.49% 50.00% 29.73% 35.29%
First Omen 136.36% 18.18% - 57.58%
The Invitation - - - 63.41%
Immaculate 320.00% - - 35.48%

 

Phantom Menace (OD) T-3 adjusted comps 

 - Ghostbusters Afterlife (Total) - .862x (3.37m)

 - Ghostbusters: FE - 1.09x (3.93m)

 - Transformers 6 (Total) - .476x (3.35m)

 - F9 - .555x (3.42m)

 - Morbius - .716x (3.43m)

 - Indiana Jones - .588x (3.47m)

 

Just for kicks I took a look at the LotR re-releases scheduled for June.  They're getting one show each (for the most part) in around 1k theaters.  

 

Movie Day Area TC Shows New Sold Seats % Sold
LotR Fellowship (Re) (OD) T-39 Jax 5 5 129 129 833 15.49%
    Phx 5 6 286 286 942 30.36%
    Ral 5 6 211 211 622 33.92%
  Total   15 17 626 626 2,397 26.12%
LotR Return of the King (Re) (OD) T-41 Jax 5 5 111 111 833 13.33%
    Phx 5 6 247 247 942 26.22%
    Ral 5 6 191 191 622 30.71%
  Total   15 17 549 549 2,397 22.90%
LotR Two Towers (Re) (OD) T-40 Jax 5 5 114 114 833 13.69%
    Phx 5 6 228 228 942 24.20%
    Ral 5 5 186 186 534 34.83%
  Total   15 16 528 528 2,309 22.87%

 

Some locations already adding a second showing.  Glad to see my favorite franchise performing well!

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