The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[titanic2187]

7 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

Not for IF - that movie does not have all-day matinee price at my Cinemark...

I wasn’t referring If, I was referring their attempt with 80 for Brady. 

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 4/22/2024 at 1:35 PM, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

This one has more shows than last week.  Sitting at 1,193 in my sample theaters.

 

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Spider-Man 2 (Re)	T-0	Jax	1	4	231	231	358	64.53%
		Phx	1	1	82	82	240	34.17%
		Ral	1	8	219	219	760	28.82%
	Total		3	13	532	532	1,358	39.18%

 

I only just now realized that I used the wrong column for the comps last week... was looking at total seats instead of seats sold.  Updated comps in the quoted post.  Here are the correct comps for this week

 

Comp Buckets

All CBM movies - 1.06m

All action movies - 1.35m

All PG-13 movies - 1.43m

All EA shows - 1.14m

All movies - 1.6m

Spider-Man (2002 re-release) - 1.05m

 

All CBM was pretty much spot on last week, so I'll go with 1.06m

Similar sized release as last week with 1,159 shows today in my sample theaters.

 

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Spider-Man 3 (Re)	T-0	Jax	1	4	266	266	384	69.27%
		Phx	1	1	83	83	123	67.48%
		Ral	1	2	89	89	100	89.00%
	Total		3	7	438	438	607	72.16%

 

Comps

 - Spider-Man (Re) - 1.27x (865k)

 - Spider-Man 2 (Re) - .823x (666k)

 

Despite having similar amount of shows total, it has fewer in one of the theaters I track which is gonna skew the direct comps.  I'll go with around 725k for tonight

[Flip]

5 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Fall Guy	T-3	Jax	6	37	7	50	6,318	0.79%
		Phx	7	24	10	82	4,147	1.98%
		Ral	8	30	13	83	4,641	1.79%
	Total		21	91	30	215	15,106	1.42%
Fall Guy (EA)	T-2	Jax	5	10	11	69	2,007	3.44%
		Phx	1	2	3	31	618	5.02%
		Ral	2	2	10	47	412	11.41%
	Total		8	14	24	147	3,037	4.84%
Phantom Menace (Re) (OD)	T-4	Jax	5	30	212	212	2,765	7.67%
		Phx	6	19	240	240	2,195	10.93%
		Ral	7	28	283	283	3,036	9.32%
	Total		18	77	735	735	7,996	9.19%
Tarot	T-3	Jax	5	21	3	13	1,752	0.74%
		Phx	6	16	0	15	2,534	0.59%
		Ral	7	19	0	8	2,550	0.31%
	Total		18	56	3	36	6,836	0.53%

 

Fall Guy (Total) T-3 adjusted comps

 - Jungle Cruise - 1.51x (4.25m)

 - Bullet Train (Total) - .58x (2.73m)

 - Cocaine Bear - 1.49x (3.52m)

 - Civil War - 1.21x (3.52m)

 - Free Guy - 1.19x (2.71m)

 - Ticket to Paradise (Total) - missed

 - Lost City (Total) - .797x (3.13m)

 - Equalizer 3 - .971x (3.69m)

 

Size adjusted comps - 3.27m

 

Movie	3-day pace	Prev 3-day	Prev 3-day	Last Day
Fall Guy Total	45.38%	23.69%	12.11%	17.53%
Jungle Cruise	38.95%	29.07%	31.97%	17.16%
Bullet Train + EA	44.78%	29.23%	27.21%	18.86%
Cocaine Bear	49.08%	9.82%	11.56%	-
Civil War	53.61%	38.66%	26.05%	17.79%
Free Guy	50.25%	51.23%	-	9.71%
Lost City Total	64.49%	26.45%	-	16.71%
Equalizer 3	48.02%	38.89%	31.17%	16.20%

 

The last few days it has been on track with comps.  Hoping for +30-35% tomorrow

 

Tarot T-3 adjusted comps

 - M3GAN - missed

 - Abigail - .486x (486k)

 - Talk to Me - .353x (439k)

 - The First Omen - 1.091x (791k)

 - Invitation - .878x (697k)

 - Immaculate - 1.161x (639k)

 

Size adjusted comps - 688k

 

Phantom Menace (OD) T-4 adjusted comps 

 - Ghostbusters Afterlife (Total) - .915x (3.58m)

 - Ghostbusters: FE - 1.094x (3.95m)

 - Transformers 6 (Total) - .489x (3.45m)

 - F9 - .592x (3.65m)

 - Morbius - .748x (3.58m)

 - Indiana Jones - .586x (3.46m)

 

Comparing OD to previews will skew things a little, but not many options here.

Are there any rereleases you’ve tracked?

[katnisscinnaplex]

23 minutes ago, Flip said:

Are there any rereleases you’ve tracked?

The only ones I have at T-4 are Titanic (didn't report) and Luca (very limited).  RotK in April last year had 1,316 tickets sold at T-0 but it was also pretty limited. (19 shows in my regions)

[AniNate]

Apparently there's a Steel Magnolias rerelease this weekend too

[el sid]

Tarot, counted today for Thursday, had 97 sold tickets in 5 theaters.

It's not helpful that the AMC Fresh Meadows in NY is still missing (the other theater is the small one in Texas which is no problem), because that theater would have been a good indicator.

 

Comps (all movies counted on Monday of the release week for Thursday and in the same 5 theaters, therefore I don't report the back then counted presale numbers of the films): The Invitation (775k) = 1.15M.

Abigail (1M) = 750k.

M3gan (2.75M) = 1.25M.

Prey for the Devil (660k) = 600k.

The Last Voyage of the Demeter (750k) = 500k.

The First Omen (725k) = 1.4M.

And Knock at the Cabin (1.5M) = 500k.

Average: 850-900k.

 

Not even that bad. The quite good sales in California help. Of course, with so uneven comps we have to take that number with a grain of salt. 

[el sid]

The Fall Guy, counted today for Thursday, had 669 sold tickets (in all 7 theaters).

Up modest 25.5% since last Friday. Not a bad number but it's a little bit as feared, it did not quite have the normal Monday jump. OTOH, other movies which already had a lot of buzz had way worse jumps, 25% are still acceptable.  

 

Comps (all movies counted on Monday of the release week for Thursday): BT (4.6M from previews) had 879 sold tickets = 3.5M.

TLC (2.5M) had 309 = 5.4M. 

Uncharted (3.7M) had 868 = 2.85M.

Amsterdam (550k) had 184 = 2M.

Death on the Nile (1.1M) had 212 = 3.5M.

Average: 3.45M.

 

A nice number but it will very probably go down because e.g. for TLC with only 306 tickets on Monday it was way easier to have decent jumps in the next few days. The EA shows on Wednesday for sure hurt the Thursday presales of The Fall Guy so this is really no bad number.

Overall no signs for a breakout hit but very, very solid. All it needs now are at least ok jumps.

Edited April 29 by el sid

[Eric the IF]

Quorum Updates

IF T-18: 47.69% Awareness, 50.31% Interest

Fly Me to the Moon T-74: 14.68% Awareness, 34.65% Interest

Deadpool & Wolverine T-88: 49.95% Awareness, 64.3% Interest

Alien: Romulus T-109: 29.19% Awareness, 46.49% Interest

Blink Twice T-116: 10.96% Awareness, 36.6% Interest

Piece by Piece T-165: 14.52% Awareness, 31.8% Interest

 

Tarot T-4: 31.33% Awareness, 48.83% Interest

Final Awareness: 41% chance of 10M, 7% chance of 20M

Horror Awareness: 46% chance of 10M, 8% chance of 20M

Final Interest: 49% chance of 10M, 17% chance of 20M

Horror Interest: 44% chance of 10M, 11% chance of 20M

 

The Fall Guy T-4: 47.78% Awareness, 50.28% Interest

Final Awareness: 79% chance of 10M, 45% chance of 20M, 26% chance of 30M, 17% chance of 40M, 9% chance of 70M, 5% chance of 80M, 2% chance of 90M

Tentpole Awareness: N/A

Final Interest: 91% chance of 10M, 78% chance of 20M, 60% chance of 30M, 46% chance of 40M, 33% chance of 50M, 24% chance of 60M, 17% chance of 70M, 15% chance of 80M, 12% chance of 90M, 9% chance of 100M

Tentpole Interest: 100% chance of 40M, 75% chance of 50M, 67% chance of 60M, 42% chance of 70M, 33% chance of 80M, 17% chance of 100M

 

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes T-11: 64.48% Awareness, 58.09% Interest

Final Awareness: 100% chance of 20M, 92% chance of 30M, 87% chance of 40M, 75% chance of 50M, 62% chance of 60M, 50% chance of 70M, 37% chance of 80M, 29% chance of 100M

Tentpole Awareness: 100% chance of 100M, 90% chance of 40M, 80% chance of 60M, 50% chance of 70M, 40% chance of 80M, 20% chance of 100M

Final Interest: 78% chance of 20M, 60% chance of 30M, 46% chance of 40M, 33% chance of 50M, 24% chance of 60M, 17% chance of 70M, 15% chance of 80M, 12% chance of 90M, 9% chance of 100M

Tentpole Interest: 100% chance of 40M, 75% chance of 50M, 67% chance of 60M, 42% chance of 70M, 33% chance of 80M, 17% chance of 100M

 

Bad Boys for Life T-39: 54.41% Awareness, 59.09% Interest

T-30 Awareness: 100% chance of 20M, 95% chance of 30M, 89% chance of 40M, 79% chance of 50M, 58% chance of 60M, 53% chance of 70M, 37% chance of 80M, 31% chance of 100M

Medium Awareness: 100% chance of 50M, 67% chance of 70M, 33% chance of 100M

T-30 Interest: 94% chance of 10M, 86% chance of 20M, 77% chance of 30M, 66% chance of 40M, 51% chance of 50M, 40% chance of 60M, 29% chance of 70M, 26% chance of 80M, 23% chance of 90M, 20% chance of 100M

Medium Interest: 86% chance of 10M, 71% chance of 20M, 57% chance of 30M, 29% chance of 40M, 14% chance of 50M

[charlie Jatinder]

This Regal shenanigans by Paramount will make for some sample headaches for IF.

[TheFlatLannister]

On 4/28/2024 at 6:01 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

THE FALL GUY

 

Thursday 

T-4

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
440	1718	88593	1.9%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

183

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

T-4

(0.857x) of Civil War $2.49M

(1.727x) of Challengers $2.76M

Comps average: $2.63M

 

Pretty good T-4

FLORIDA 

THE FALL GUY

 

Thursday 

 

T-3

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
476	1841	95382	1.9%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

123

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

36

 

COMPS

T-3

(0.828x) of Civil War $2.40M

(1.630x) of Challengers $2.61M

Comps average: $2.51M

 

Not impressed at all with this T-3 update

Edited April 30 by TheFlatLannister

[AniNate]

32 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

This Regal shenanigans by Paramount will make for some sample headaches for IF.

 

Well it's not like there's much use to it with kids movies anyway

[abracadabra1998]

On 4/28/2024 at 10:40 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

The Fall Guy (T-4):

Day: T-4, T-3	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 25 theaters	74	66	255	13546	1.88
Wednesday May 1 EA: 19 theaters	23	69	286	5129	5.58
TOTALS:	97	135	541	18675	2.9

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		200	48	78.43
MTC1:		179	52	70.2
Alamo:		20	2	7.84
Other chains:		56	12	21.96

 

Thursday Comps:

1.19x Monkey Man: $1.67 Million

0.58x Civil War: $1.68 Million

0.24x Godzilla v. King: $2.2 Million (17 theaters)

0.4x Ghostbusters Frozen Empire: $1.89 Million (17 theaters)

0.44x Madame Web (OD): $2.67 Million (17 theaters)

0.64x Wonka: $2.24 Million (17 theaters)

0.56x Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom: $2.5 Million (17 theaters)

 

Average: $2.12 Million

 

EA Comps:

1.33x Challengers: $730k

0.29x Dune Part 2: $580k

0.48x MI7: $955k

 

Average: $755k

 

Finally decided to break this down and it obviously doesn't look great, but I wouldn't doom and gloom just yet, pace will be all messed up with the Wednesday EA

 

Tarot (T-4):

Day: T-4	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 21 theaters	55	14	26	5110	0.51

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		18	11	69.23
Alamo:		0	0	0
Other chains:		8	3	30.77

 

Comps:

0.33x Abigail: $330k

0.65x First Oman: $470k

0.43x Imaginary: $315k

0.45x Last Voyage of Demeter: $335k

 

Average: $360k

 

Not great

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

The Fall Guy (T-3):

Day: T-3, T-2	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 25 theaters	85	55	310	14944	2.07
Wednesday May 1 EA: 19 theaters	23	29	315	5129	6.14
TOTALS:	108	84	625	20073	3.11

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		233	33	75.16
MTC1:		214	35	69.03
Alamo:		24	4	7.74
Other chains:		72	16	23.23

 

Thursday Comps:

1.11x Monkey Man: $1.55 Million

0.59x Civil War: $1.72 Million

0.4x Ghostbusters Frozen Empire: $1.88 Million (17 theaters)

Madame Web (OD):  Missed

0.64x Wonka: $2.25 Million (17 theaters)

0.56x Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom: $2.54 Million (17 theaters)

 

Average: $2 Million

 

EA Comps:

0.97x Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare: $585k

0.82x Mean Girls: $530k

0.49x MI7: $975k

 

Average: $695k

 

Very unimpressive, especially the EA numbers. I would have expected them to start climbing up by now. Again, my comps are not the best and walk-ups are king for this, but without a catalyst like a buzzy review drop I can see this have a rough final week. At this point my prediction is we are in for a depressing weekend thread

 

Tarot (T-3):

Day: T-3	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 22 theaters	62	8	34	5567	0.61

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		22	4	64.71
Alamo:		0	0	0
Other chains:		12	4	35.29

 

Comps:

0.33x Abigail: $330k

0.81x First Oman: $585k

0.67x Immaculate: $370k

0.44x Imaginary: $320k

0.51x Last Voyage of Demeter: $380k

 

Average: $395k

[abracadabra1998]

Minnesota Previews:

 

IF (T-17, Day 1):

Day: T-17	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 23 theaters	67	9	9	11114	0.08

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		5	5	55.56
MTC1:		5	5	55.56
Alamo:		0	0	0
Other chains:		4	4	44.44

 

Day 1 Comps:

0.35x Kung Fu Panda 4: $1.32 Million

0.19x Wonka: $670k

1.29x Wish: $2.31 Million

0.38x Trolls (w/ EA): $925k

 

Comps are obviously silly at this stage, just wanted to show that unsurprsingly not really a lot of interest from a get-go. We shall see how it does in these coming weeks

[charlie Jatinder]

Whoever track Regal Cinemas here ( @Porthos @katnisscinnaplex), can you do separate comp for IF. Overall comp and just REGAL locs comp.

[Cmasterclay]

That was a fun single day of optimism. 

[keysersoze123]

22 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Fall Guy MTC1

Early Shows - 14134/92957 310506.22 378 shows +996

Previews(T-4) - 14255/335163 294548.17 1613 shows +1347

Friday - 14545/597869 287956.43 2834 shows +1856

 

Definite sign of acceleration but overall pace is still quite low. let us see how final week goes now.  

Fall Guy MTC1

Early Shows - 15484/92957 339031.28 378 shows +1350

Previews(T-3) - 16714/354658 342888.20 1750 shows +2459

Friday - 17830/661668 350760.84 3241 shows +3285

 

It again accelerated. But does not look like hitting 50K that I was hoping few days ago. Best case scenario is 45K and probably finishing closer to low 40s. Let us wait and see. I am also hoping ratio wont be as crazy as past few weeks as this movie has star power and should play wider.  

[Porthos]

35 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Whoever track Regal Cinemas here ( @Porthos @katnisscinnaplex), can you do separate comp for IF. Overall comp and just REGAL locs comp.

 

If I check out If (no pun intended), probably won't be able to break out Regal Only comps as I don't keep that level of data for Q&Ds.  Can note how many of the current tickets are Regal, but can't back compare them to other QD tracks.

 

(big if like I said, however)

[Rorschach]

It's been nearly a year and a half since I've done any tracking, but since the summer movie season is about to kick off, I figured I'd get back into it for old-time's sake. I only used to do Wednesday night outlooks for my Davenport Cinemark theater, which I no longer go to since I don't live in Iowa anymore – though I do go on occasion whenever I visit that area. 

 

Since it has been so long, though, I'm throwing out pretty much all of my old comps and starting from scratch. This time around, I'm expanding to four nights a week (Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday (for Friday only)) + Thursday noon-ish for previews. I don't imagine I'll be able to hit all those dates consistently for every upcoming film, and I might skip some that I just plain don't feel like covering, but I will try my damnedest to do all of the big stuff!

 

The Fall Guy - Monday Night Outlook

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

Wednesday Early Access:

1 IMAX showing: 8/388

1 XD showing: 14/238

Total: 22/626 (3.5% sold)

 

Thursday:

2 IMAX showings: 1/776

2 XD showings: 3/476

4 2D showings: 11/404

Total: 15/1,656 (0.9% sold)

 

Friday:

5 IMAX showings: 15/1,940

1 XD showing: 0/238

6 2D showings: 15/674

Total: 30/2,852 (1.1% sold)

Thurs + Fri: 45/4,508 (1% sold)

Plus Early Access: 67/5,134 (1.3% sold)

 

 

Tarot - Monday Night Outlook

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

Thursday:

6 2D showings: 12/489 (2.5% sold)

 

Friday:

7 2D showings: 7/581 (1.2% sold)

Thurs + Fri: 19/1,070 (1.8% sold)

 

 

The Phantom Menace 25th Anniversary - Monday Night Outlook

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

Friday:

3 XD showings: 0/714 

9 2D showings: 125/708

Total: 125/1,422 (8.8% sold)

 

^ dayum lol

Edited April 30 by Rorschach

[emoviefan]

If the Fall Guy does not break out in any way OW or have legs because of WOM than that means people really don't want original well reviewed mainstream movies. It's that simple. Yes it's not really an original but to most people it is. Because it's easier to get excited for crap like Mufassa.

[Porthos]

13 minutes ago, emoviefan said:

If the Fall Guy does not break out in any way OW or have legs because of WOM than that means people really don't want original well reviewed mainstream movies. It's that simple. Yes it's not really an original but to most people it is. Because it's easier to get excited for crap like Mufassa.

 

No it is NOT that simple.  It only means they didn't want this one.  Doesn't mean a different one might strike a chord and take off.

 

Frankly, history is littered with well reviewed mainstream movies that didn't click initially for whatever reason, only to be "found" later.

 

(and, no, ain't gonna go trawling through BOM/the-numbers to find examples)