The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Flopped]

Just now, charlie Jatinder said:

Based on miniTC2 would guess $250-300K previews.

 

Do u know BKW previews? 

[el sid]

Because I couldn't count yesterday first a little Tarot update:

It had today 58 sold tickets for Thursday (with shows in 5 theaters - no shows so far in my AMCs in NY and Texas).

 

Comps (all films counted for Thursday): The First Omen (725k from previews) had with 8 days left 28 sold tickets in 7 theaters.

Abigail (1M) had with also 6 days left 69 sold tickets in the same 5 theaters = 840k.

The Invitation (775k) had on Monday of the release week (=3 days left for Tarot to come closer or overtake) 96 sold tickets in 7 theaters.

And Prey for the Devil (660k) had also on Monday of the release week 115 sold tickets in all 7 theaters.

 

So not too great but also no disaster in my theaters. At the moment my guess would be that it gets high single digits. But as we know, often the jumps in the release week and the walk-ups decide if a horror movie is successful so let's see.

Edited April 26 by el sid

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 4/19/2024 at 9:59 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	TC	Shows	Change	Standard	Last PSA	PLF	IMAX	3D
Abigail	2828	55,624		51,984		3,640	0	0
Civil War	3049	45,113	-18.72%	41,909	393.68	3,204	1,735	0
Ungentlemanly Warfare	2623	44,549		40,905		3,644	0	0
Godzilla x Kong	2798	38,011	-9.28%	34,609	370.86	3,402	3	3,127
Gekijoban Spy x Family	1870	32,914		31,096		1,818	1,718	0.00%
Kung Fu Panda 4	2,414	27,283	6.39%	26,127	215.76	1,156	0	1,115
Ghostbusters: FE	2,461	27,235	9.91%	27,195	627.11	40	6	0
The First Omen	2,000	17,931	-28.69%	17,920	151.20	11	0	0
Monkey Man	2,158	17,233	-30.63%	17,189	164.49	44	0	0
Dune: Part Two	1,704	14,617	-1.26%	14,387	292.74	230	134	0
Sasquatch Sunset	785	11,392		11,389		3	0	0
The Long Game	749	5,599	-43.88%	5,599	111.40	0	0	0
Shrek 2	714	4,786	-51.31%	4,786	123.12	0	0	0
Arthur the King	563	4,421	-26.95%	4,418	140.82	3	0	0
Hard Miles	435	4,224		4,210		14	0	0
Someone Like You	459	3,412	-27.71%	3,408	177.30	4	0	0
Bob Marley: One Love	785	2,600		2,597		3	0	0

 

4/19/24 USA Sample Showtime Report*

*Not all theaters are included

Opening Weekend Comp

The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare - 44,549 (2,623 TC)

 - Babylon - 44,741 (3,029)

 - Missing - 44,142 (2,597)

 - The Menu - 45,234 (2,830)

 - Prey for the Devil - 45,409 (2,659)

 - Bones and All - 45,531 (2,384)

 

Abigail - 55,624 (2,828 TC)

 -Old - 56,613 (2,958)

 - Black Phone - 59,993 (2,800)

 - Smile - 60,493 (3,169)

 - Insidious Red Door - 63,877 (2,774)

 

Spy x Family Code: White - 32,914 (1,870 TC)

 - My Hero Academia (no previews) - 25,807 (1,504)

 - Demon Slayer (no previews) - 22,604 (1,703)

 - Memory - 31,063 (2,233)

 

Sasquatch Sunset - 11,392 (785 TC)

 - Umma - 11,404 (739)

 - Fabelmans - 11,375 (589)

 - Long Game - 11,673 (856)

 - Late Night with the Devil - 10,628 (975)

 

T-1 Week Comps

Unsung Hero (4/24 EA) - 2,128 (1,810 TC)

 - Joy Ride EA - 1,875(1,685)

 

Unsung Hero - 22,805 (1,817 TC)

 - Jesus Revolution - 22,173 (1,873)

 - Three Thousand Years of Longing - 21,989 (1,690)

 - Cabrini - 24,239 (2,105)

 - Dear Evan Hansen - 22,666 (2,163)

 

Challengers (4/22 EA) - 899 (878 TC)

 - Bullet Train EA - 847 (771)

 - Death on the Nile EA - 824 (816)

 - Ungentlemanly EA - 932 (917)

 

Challengers - 28,782 (1,949 TC)

 - I Wanna Dance - 28,953 (2,345)

 - Gran Turismo - 28,544 (2,033)

 - No Hard Feelings - 27,994 (1,836)

 - Marry Me - 27,987 (2,321)

 

Boy Kills World - 15,178 (1,191 TC)

 - Bones and All - 15,213 (1,310)

 - Devotion - 15,281 (1,334)

 - Memory - 14,955 (1,210)

 - Men - 14,289 (1,082)

 

Alien (Re-release) - 6,635 (963 TC)

Mummy (Re-release) - 6,688 (843 TC)

 - Jaws in 3D - 6,606 (847)

 - Luca (Re-release) - 7,027 (792)

 - Shrek 2 (Re-release) - 9,008 (1,012)

 

T-2 Week Previews Comps

Fall Guy (5/1 EA) - 1,190 (952 TC)

 - Creed III EA - 1,126 (889)

 - Top Gun EA - 970 (932)

 - Strays EA - 835

 

Fall Guy - 7,686 (2,318 TC)

 - Haunted Mansion - 7,500 (2,108)

 - Uncharted - 7,459 (2,177)

 - Blue Beetle - 7,943 (1,726)

 - Bullet Train - 8,244 (1,877)

 - Grand Turismo - 7,244 (1,832)

 

Tarot - 3,994 (1,508 TC)

 - Scream - 4,141 (1,945)

 - M3GAN - 4,412 (1,837)

 - Abigail - 3,641 (1,540)

 

T-3 Week Previews Comps

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (5/8 EA) - 1,089 (923 TC)

 - Fall Guy EA - 1,157 (922)

 - Top Gun EA - 897 (876)

 

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes - 9,990 (2,141 TC)

 - Barbie - 10,086 (2,388)

 - Shazam 2 - 10,850 (2,193)

 - Nope - 8,197 (2,086)

 - Eternals - 8,959 (2,267)

 - Ghostbusters FE - 10,683 (1,917)

 - Black Adam - 10,710 (1,868)

Movie	TC	Shows	Change	Standard	Last PSA	PLF	IMAX	3D
Challengers	2903	52,837		44,384		8,453	2,394	0
Unsung Hero	2492	39,237		39,161		76	0	0
Civil War	2,900	35,594	-21.10%	34,342	246.66	1,252	204	0
Abigail	2,891	35,529	-26.80%	35,379	185.12	150	0	0
Godzilla x Kong	2,748	33,820	-11.03%	30,223	251.78	3,597	54	2,332
Ungentlemanly Warfare	2,654	31,451	-20.94%	31,221	200.09	230	0	0
Boy Kills World	1764	24,841		24,831		10	0	0
Kung Fu Panda 4	2,320	22,606	-17.14%	21,861	171.97	745	0	705
Spy x Family	1,864	21,747	-21.49%	21,726	146.59	21	6	0
Ghostbusters: FE	2,224	21,057	-22.68%	21,034	163.46	23	0	0
Alien Day 45th Anniv	1590	12,711		12,671		40	0	0
The Mummy 25th Anniv	1174	10,712		10,707		5	0	0.00%
Dune: Part Two	1,123	8,548	-41.52%	6,993	201.67	1,555	1,478	0
Monkey Man	1,264	6,771	-60.71%	6,769	132.79	2	0	0
The First Omen	842	5,033	-71.93%	5,030	99.85	3	0	0
Sasquatch Sunset	512	2,392	-76.79%	2,392	41.54	0	0	0

 

4/26/24 USA Sample Showtime Report*

*Not all theaters are included
 

Opening Weekend Comp

Unsung Hero - 39,237 (2,492 TC)

 - Jesus Revolution - 39,652 (2,277)

 - Cabrini - 39,434 (2,660)

 - Respect - 40,541 (2,876)

 - House of Gucci - 38,900 (2,933)

 

Challengers - 52,837 (2,903TC)

 - Crawdads - 53,855 (3,126)

 - Marry Me - 53,179 (3,172)

 - Strays - 52,103 (2,849)

 - Big Fat Greek Wedding 3 - 52,002 (3,049)

 - No Hard Feelings - 55,242 (2,698)

 

Boy Kills World - 24,841 (1,764 TC)

 - Nightmare Alley - 24,922 (1,911)

 - King's Daughter - 26,174 (1,987)

 - Retribution - 26,853 (1,705)

 

Alien (Re-release) - 12,711 (1,590 TC)

Mummy (Re-release) - 10,712 (1,174 TC)

 - Shrek 2 (Re-release) - 11,820 (1,281)

 - Father Stu (Re-release) - 11,346 (941)

 - Luca (Re-release) - 10,207 (1,230)

 - Jurassic Park (Re-release) - 9,791 (1,183)

 

T-1 Week Comps

Fall Guy (5/1 EA) - 1,253 (1,003 TC)

 - Creed III EA - 1,188 (945)

 - Dog EA - 1,099

 - Top Gun EA - 1,008 (942)

 - Strays EA - 915

 

Fall Guy - 57,692 (2,725 TC)

 - M:I 7 - 58,550 (2,531)

 - Bullet Train - 53,866 (2,579)

 - Equalizer 3 - 52,325 (2,325)

 - No Time to Die - 63,789 (2,910)

 

Tarot - 26,900 (1,787 TC)

 - Smile - 27,557 (2,196)

 - Imaginary - 27,409 (2,048)

 - Firestarter - 25,486 (1,830)

 - First Omen - 25,375 (1,974)

 

Star Wars: The Phantom Menace - 22,369 (1,860 TC)

 - Titanic (Re-release) - 17,111 (1,598)

 - Spider-Man: No Way Home (Re-release) - 15,478 (1,821)

 

This is the largest re-release I've seen since I've been tracking

 

T-2 Week Previews Comps

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (5/8 EA) - 1,133 (961 TC)

 - Fall Guy EA - 1,190 (952)

 - Creed III EA - 1,126 (889)

 - Top Gun EA - 970 (932)

 

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes - 10,644 (2,347 TC)

 - Ghostbusters: FE - 12,645 (2,430)

 - Godzilla x Kong - 12,011 (2,175)

 - Secrets of Dumbledore - 11,617 (2,405)

 - Shazam 2 - 11,334 (2,346)

 - Morbius - 10,885 (2,409)

 - No Time to Die - 10,513 (2,492)

 - Barbie - 10,509 (2,488)

 - Ghostbusters: Afterlife - 9,550 (2,316)

 

 

T-3 Week Previews Comps

Back to Black (5/15 EA) - 163

Back to Black - 2,634 (1,245 TC)

 - The Blind - 2,539 (1,426)

 - Tarot - 2,637 (962)

 - Father Stu - 3,017 (1,359)

 

IF - 1,731 (592 TC)*

 

*Mostly just AMC up so far

 

T-4 Week Previews Comps

The Garfield Movie (5/19 EA) - 381

 - Barbie EA - 372

 

The Garfield Movie - 8,118 (1,899 TC)

 - Shazam 2 - 8,118 (1,899)

 - Fall Guy - 7,481 (2,174)

 - Barbie - 8,920 (2,053)

 - Haunted Mansion - 6,498 (1,763)

 

Sight - 2,182 (1,229 TC)

 - Black Phone - 2,277 (887)

 - The Blind - 2,476 (1,390)

[charlie Jatinder]

For those who wanna keep record. $550K ish EA for Challengers and $1.6M THU.

[Flip]

3 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	TC	Shows	Change	Standard	Last PSA	PLF	IMAX	3D
Challengers	2903	52,837		44,384		8,453	2,394	0
Unsung Hero	2492	39,237		39,161		76	0	0
Civil War	2,900	35,594	-21.10%	34,342	246.66	1,252	204	0
Abigail	2,891	35,529	-26.80%	35,379	185.12	150	0	0
Godzilla x Kong	2,748	33,820	-11.03%	30,223	251.78	3,597	54	2,332
Ungentlemanly Warfare	2,654	31,451	-20.94%	31,221	200.09	230	0	0
Boy Kills World	1764	24,841		24,831		10	0	0
Kung Fu Panda 4	2,320	22,606	-17.14%	21,861	171.97	745	0	705
Spy x Family	1,864	21,747	-21.49%	21,726	146.59	21	6	0
Ghostbusters: FE	2,224	21,057	-22.68%	21,034	163.46	23	0	0
Alien Day 45th Anniv	1590	12,711		12,671		40	0	0
The Mummy 25th Anniv	1174	10,712		10,707		5	0	0.00%
Dune: Part Two	1,123	8,548	-41.52%	6,993	201.67	1,555	1,478	0
Monkey Man	1,264	6,771	-60.71%	6,769	132.79	2	0	0
The First Omen	842	5,033	-71.93%	5,030	99.85	3	0	0
Sasquatch Sunset	512	2,392	-76.79%	2,392	41.54	0	0	0

 

4/26/24 USA Sample Showtime Report*

*Not all theaters are included
 

Opening Weekend Comp

Unsung Hero - 39,237 (2,492 TC)

 - Jesus Revolution - 39,652 (2,277)

 - Cabrini - 39,434 (2,660)

 - Respect - 40,541 (2,876)

 - House of Gucci - 38,900 (2,933)

 

Challengers - 52,837 (2,903TC)

 - Crawdads - 53,855 (3,126)

 - Marry Me - 53,179 (3,172)

 - Strays - 52,103 (2,849)

 - Big Fat Greek Wedding 3 - 52,002 (3,049)

 - No Hard Feelings - 55,242 (2,698)

 

Boy Kills World - 24,841 (1,764 TC)

 - Nightmare Alley - 24,922 (1,911)

 - King's Daughter - 26,174 (1,987)

 - Retribution - 26,853 (1,705)

 

Alien (Re-release) - 12,711 (1,590 TC)

Mummy (Re-release) - 10,712 (1,174 TC)

 - Shrek 2 (Re-release) - 11,820 (1,281)

 - Father Stu (Re-release) - 11,346 (941)

 - Luca (Re-release) - 10,207 (1,230)

 - Jurassic Park (Re-release) - 9,791 (1,183)

 

T-1 Week Comps

Fall Guy (5/1 EA) - 1,253 (1,003 TC)

 - Creed III EA - 1,188 (945)

 - Dog EA - 1,099

 - Top Gun EA - 1,008 (942)

 - Strays EA - 915

 

Fall Guy - 57,692 (2,725 TC)

 - M:I 7 - 58,550 (2,531)

 - Bullet Train - 53,866 (2,579)

 - Equalizer 3 - 52,325 (2,325)

 - No Time to Die - 63,789 (2,910)

 

Tarot - 26,900 (1,787 TC)

 - Smile - 27,557 (2,196)

 - Imaginary - 27,409 (2,048)

 - Firestarter - 25,486 (1,830)

 - First Omen - 25,375 (1,974)

 

Star Wars: The Phantom Menace - 22,369 (1,860 TC)

 - Titanic (Re-release) - 17,111 (1,598)

 - Spider-Man: No Way Home (Re-release) - 15,478 (1,821)

 

This is the largest re-release I've seen since I've been tracking

 

T-2 Week Previews Comps

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (5/8 EA) - 1,133 (961 TC)

 - Fall Guy EA - 1,190 (952)

 - Creed III EA - 1,126 (889)

 - Top Gun EA - 970 (932)

 

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes - 10,644 (2,347 TC)

 - Ghostbusters: FE - 12,645 (2,430)

 - Godzilla x Kong - 12,011 (2,175)

 - Secrets of Dumbledore - 11,617 (2,405)

 - Shazam 2 - 11,334 (2,346)

 - Morbius - 10,885 (2,409)

 - No Time to Die - 10,513 (2,492)

 - Barbie - 10,509 (2,488)

 - Ghostbusters: Afterlife - 9,550 (2,316)

 

 

T-3 Week Previews Comps

Back to Black (5/15 EA) - 163

Back to Black - 2,634 (1,245 TC)

 - The Blind - 2,539 (1,426)

 - Tarot - 2,637 (962)

 - Father Stu - 3,017 (1,359)

 

IF - 1,731 (592 TC)*

 

*Mostly just AMC up so far

 

T-4 Week Previews Comps

The Garfield Movie (5/19 EA) - 381

 - Barbie EA - 372

 

The Garfield Movie - 8,118 (1,899 TC)

 - Shazam 2 - 8,118 (1,899)

 - Fall Guy - 7,481 (2,174)

 - Barbie - 8,920 (2,053)

 - Haunted Mansion - 6,498 (1,763)

 

Sight - 2,182 (1,229 TC)

 - Black Phone - 2,277 (887)

 - The Blind - 2,476 (1,390)

Phantom Menace should have a good chance at #2 next Friday unless it’s in less than 2.5k theaters

[Eric Loves Rey]

Quorum Updates

The Garfield Movie T-29: 48.58% Awareness, 51.19% Interest

Sight T-29: 11.57% Awareness, 33.66% Interest

Despicable Me 4 T-69: 56.48% Awareness, 57.43% Interest

Trap T-106: 17.43% Awareness, 42.47% Interest

Kraven the Hunter T-127: 28.63% Awareness, 42.53% Interest

Speak No Evil T-141: 22.25% Awareness, 48.08% Interest

 

Challengers T-1: 32.51% Awareness, 40.17% Interest

Final Awareness: 40% chance of 10M, 7% chance of 20M

Low Awareness: 27% chance of 10M, 8% chance of 20M

Final Interest: 48% chance of 10M, 17% chance of 20M

Low Interest: 33% chance of 10M, 2% chance of 20M

 

Unsung Hero T-1: 17.33% Awareness, 34.72% Interest

Final Awareness: 0% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 0% chance of 10M

Final Interest: 19% chance of 10M, 9% chance of 20M

Low Interest: 9% chance of 10M and 20M

 

Tarot T-8: 30.75% Awareness, 47.38% Interest

Final Awareness: 40% chance of 10M, 7% chance of 20M

Low Awareness: 27% chance of 10M, 8% chance of 20M

Final Interest: 48% chance of 10M, 17% chance of 20M

Low Interest: 33% chance of 10M, 2% chance of 20M

 

The Fall Guy T-8: 47.44% Awareness, 50.72% Interest

Final Awareness: 79% chance of 10M, 45% chance of 20M, 26% chance of 30M, 17% chance of 40M, 9% chance of 70M, 5% chance of 80M, 2% chance of 90M

Tentpole Awareness: N/A

Final Interest: 91% chance of 10M, 78% chance of 20M, 60% chance of 30M, 46% chance of 40M, 33% chance of 50M, 24% chance of 60M, 17% chance of 70M, 15% chance of 80M, 12% chance of 90M, 9% chance of 100M

Tentpole Interest: 100% chance of 40M, 75% chance of 50M, 67% chance of 60M, 42% chance of 70M, 33% chance of 80M, 17% chance of 100M

 

So over the past few weeks, I was combing through the Quorum archives and compiled up all the Interest percentages. To help make things a touch more accurate and have more data to play with. Don't know how much things will change, but numbers are numbers are numbers.

[misterpepp]

Ticketing dates for some smaller movies:

 

Babes May 2
Possum Trot May 1
Young Woman and the Sea May 1

 

The previously mentioned April 30 ticket date for Strangers Chapter 1 is again a midnight drop, so east coasters should consider that May 1.

[keysersoze123]

On 4/17/2024 at 2:32 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Fall Guy MTC1

Early Shows - 7520/91619 169143.92 371 shows

Previews - 7409/329914 154230.01 1581 shows

Friday - 6774/592388 133358.50 2790 shows

 

Again there is almost no pace.  There is still time but unless the pace picks up dramatically, we are looking at a disappointment. 

Fall Guy MTC1

Early Shows - 12426/92810 273976.76 377 shows

Previews(T-6) - 12113/334752 251550.53 1608 shows

Friday - 11529/596331 228680.03 2822 shows

 

Update is after 9 days plus. No sign yet of a big breakout. Plus early shows being just day earlier than previews will have some impact on thursday pace until really close to release. 

[emoviefan]

48 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Fall Guy MTC1

Early Shows - 12426/92810 273976.76 377 shows

Previews(T-6) - 12113/334752 251550.53 1608 shows

Friday - 11529/596331 228680.03 2822 shows

 

Update is after 9 days plus. No sign yet of a big breakout. Plus early shows being just day earlier than previews will have some impact on thursday pace until really close to release. 

When you say no sign of a big breakout do you mean you think it's going to do at least in the 30-40 million dollar range or possibly even go sub 30 for the weekend because that would not be good.

[katnisscinnaplex]

23 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Fall Guy	T-6	Jax	6	36	5	29	6,208	0.47%
		Phx	7	24	8	57	4,147	1.37%
		Ral	8	31	5	60	4,762	1.26%
	Total		21	91	18	146	15,117	0.97%
Fall Guy (EA)	T-5	Jax	5	10	5	52	2,007	2.59%
		Phx	1	2	0	23	618	3.72%
		Ral	2	2	5	28	412	6.80%
	Total		8	14	10	103	3,037	3.39%
Tarot	T-6	Jax	5	21	2	7	1,752	0.40%
		Phx	6	16	1	10	2,534	0.39%
		Ral	7	18	2	9	2,268	0.40%
	Total		18	55	5	26	6,554	0.40%

 

Fall Guy (Total) T-6 adjusted comps

 - Monkey Man - 2.541x (4.2m)

 - Jungle Cruise - 1.448x (4.06m)

 - Bullet Train (Total) - .578x (2.72m)

 - Cocaine Bear - 1.528x (3.61m)

 - Civil War - 1.284x (3.72m)

 - Free Guy - 1.227x (2.8m)

 - Ticket to Paradise (Total) - 3.557x (4m)

 - Lost City (Total) - .902x (3.54m)

 

Size adjusted comps - 3.28m

 

Tarot T-6 adjusted comps

 - Last Voyage - .473x (355k)

 - M3GAN - missed

 - Black Phone - .193x (513k)

 - Abigail - .65x (650k)

 - Talk to Me - .481x (599k)

 - The First Omen - 1.182x (857k)

 

Size adjusted comps - 698k

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Fall Guy	T-5	Jax	6	36	7	36	6,208	0.58%
		Phx	7	24	4	61	4,147	1.47%
		Ral	8	31	6	66	4,762	1.39%
	Total		21	91	17	163	15,117	1.08%
Fall Guy (EA)	T-4	Jax	5	10	1	53	2,007	2.64%
		Phx	1	2	3	26	618	4.21%
		Ral	2	2	0	28	412	6.80%
	Total		8	14	4	107	3,037	3.52%
Tarot	T-5	Jax	5	21	2	9	1,752	0.51%
		Phx	6	16	2	12	2,534	0.47%
		Ral	7	18	-1	8	2,268	0.35%
	Total		18	55	3	29	6,554	0.44%

 

Fall Guy (Total) T-5 adjusted comps

 - Monkey Man - 2.368x (3.91m)

 - Jungle Cruise - 1.51x (4.23m)

 - Bullet Train (Total) - .573x (2.7m)

 - Cocaine Bear - missed

 - Civil War - 1.179x (3.42m)

 - Free Guy - 1.134x (2.6m)

 - Ticket to Paradise (Total) - 3.375x (4.48m)

 - Lost City (Total) - .783x (3.07m)

 

Size adjusted comps - 3.15m

 

Tarot T-5 adjusted comps

 - Last Voyage - .426x (320k)

 - M3GAN - missed

 - Black Phone - .185x (492k)

 - Abigail - .604x (604k)

 - Talk to Me - .392x (488k)

 - The First Omen - 1.318x (956k)

 

Size adjusted comps - 710k

[katnisscinnaplex]

22 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Santikos Tracking

 

FRIDAY

 

Unsung Hero - 268/6,021

 - Crawdads - .337x (1.77m)

 - Easter Sunday - 1.076x (1.65m) 

 - Ticket to Paradise - .407x (2.16m)

 

This is the second largest jump from Thu to Fri final sales (+3.87x) that I've tracked, behind only Smile (+4.17x).  I'm expecting a little over 2x ratio from Thu previews to true Friday. 

 

Challengers - 234/7,349

 - Monkey Man - .785x (2.18m)

 - Ungentlemanly Warfare - 1.078x (2.47m)

 - Civil War - .314x (2.49m)

 - Paradise - .356x (1.89m)

 - Crawdads - .294x (1.55m)

 

I'd wager somewhere in the +1.7x to 1.8x true previews to true Friday. 

 

Boy Kills World - 33/3,720

 

I haven't tracked anything with under... 217 tickets sold for Friday so not really any point in comping.  Finished +1.75x previews so for an action movie that would put me a little over 2x Thursday

 

**This is the first time in maybe a year looking at multipliers so cut me some slack when these are terrible.

Santikos Tracking

 

Saturday

 

Unsung Hero - 256/5,639

 - Crawdads - .314x (1.68m)

 - Easter Sunday - 1.28x (2.31m)

 - Ticket to Paradise - .397x (2.43m)

 

Adjusted comps (using 3.6m TF)

 - Crawdads - 3.56m

 - Easter Sunday - 3.83m

 - Ticket to Paradise - 4.13m

 

Sat prediction: ~3.75m

 

Challengers - 265/7,349

 - Ungentlemanly Warfare - .869x (2.71m)

 - Civil War - .297x (2.6m)

 - Paradise - .411x (2.51m)

 - Crawdads - .326x (1.74m)

 

Adjusted comps (using 4.2m TF)

 - Ungentlemanly - 4.61m

 - Civil War - 4.39m

 - Paradise - 5.59m

 - Crawdads - 4.73m

 - Elvis - 4.97m

 - Bullet Train - 5.02m

 

Sat prediction: ~4.9m

 

Boy Kills World - 42/3,537

 

Sat prediction: ~650k

[vafrow]

On 4/26/2024 at 6:22 AM, vafrow said:

 

The Fall Guy, Western GTA (Southern Ontario), T-7, Thursday previews and Wednesday EA

 

Total Sales: 20

New Sales: 0

Growth: 0%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 12

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 1.4

Ticket premium in effect: Yes

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Early Evening: 15/6

Late Evening: 5/6

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

 

Dolby: 13/6

IMAX: 2/4

4DX: 5/2

 

EA sales

Total: 49

Showtimes: 6

Theatres: 5

 

Comps (Previews only, no EA)

0.377x Wonka for $1.3M

0.308x GB:FE for $1.4M

0.088x GxK for $0.9M

0.095x HG:BoSS for $0.5M

Avg: $1.0M

 

Comps (includes EA)

1.302x Wonka for $4.6M

1.062x GB:FE for $5.0M

0.305x GxK for $3.1M

0.329x HG:BoSS for $1.9M

AVG: $3.6M

 

More nothing. Three days of zero sales.

 

 

The Fall Guy, Western GTA (Southern Ontario), T-6, Thursday previews and Wednesday EA

 

Total Sales: 23

New Sales: 3

Growth: 15%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 12

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 1.6

Ticket premium in effect: Yes

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Early Evening: 18/6

Late Evening: 5/6

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

 

Dolby: 16/6

IMAX: 2/4

4DX: 5/2

 

EA sales

Total: 55

Showtimes: 6

Theatres: 5

 

Comps (Previews only, no EA)

0.434x Wonka for $1.5M

0.338x GB:FE for $1.6M

0.093x GxK for $0.9M

0.101x HG:BoSS for $0.6M

Avg: $1.2M

 

Comps (includes EA)

1.472x Wonka for $5.2M

1.147x GB:FE for $5.4M

0.315x GxK for $3.1M

0.342x HG:BoSS for $2.0M

AVG: $3.9M

 

Slight bump in sales, but still far off the pace.

[vafrow]

On 4/26/2024 at 6:39 AM, vafrow said:

 

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, T-14 Thursday previews and Wednesday EA shows, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 43

New Sales since T-19: 13

Growth: 43%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 16

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 2.7

Ticket premium in effect: Yes

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Late Afternoon: 1/3

Early Evening: 38/7

Late Evening: 4/6

 

Sales by Format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 13/7

IMAX: 18/6

VIP: 12/3

 

EA shows 

Sales: 21

Theatres: 4

Showtimes: 4

New Sales: 3

 

Comps (excludes EA unless stated)

1.185x Fall Guy (both with EA and preview)

0.095x Dune 2 for $1.0M

1.132x GB:FE for $5.3M

0.381x GxK for $3.8M

0.566x HG: BoSS for $3.3M

 

Average: $3.3M

 

Continues to be sluggish. It sounds like early reactions have been good. Hopefully it can land good reviews when the embargo drops and see a spike.

 

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, T-13 Thursday previews and Wednesday EA shows, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 44

New Sales: 1

Growth: 2%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 16

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 2.8

Ticket premium in effect: Yes

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Late Afternoon: 1/3

Early Evening: 38/7

Late Evening: 5/6

 

Sales by Format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 13/7

IMAX: 19/6

VIP: 12/3

 

EA shows 

Sales: 24

Theatres: 4

Showtimes: 4

New Sales: 3

 

Comps (excludes EA unless stated)

1.172x Fall Guy (both with EA and preview)

0.093x Dune 2 for $0.9M

0.978x GB:FE for $4.6M

0.346x GxK for $3.5M

0.458x HG: BoSS for $2.6M

 

Average: $2.9M

 

Continues to trend down. 

 

[keysersoze123]

On 4/17/2024 at 2:34 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes MTC1

Early Shows(5/8) - 11255/89557 244706.43 365 shows

Previews - 9377/459726 189282.69 2306 shows

Friday - 7901/652644 154054.47 3233 shows

 

Again minus early shows, presales are moribund. This is 15 days of update 🙂

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes MTC1

Early Shows(5/8) - 15033/90514 324445.07 370 shows

Previews(T-13) - 12873/465812 257235.93 2324 shows
Friday - 11612/663716 225998.08 3272 shows

 

Again 9+ days later. Its going to open bigger than Fall Guy for sure. Not sure how wide the early shows are. But a gross around 1.5m could be in play. Previews we have to wait and see how it accelerates close to release. 

 

[keysersoze123]

9 hours ago, emoviefan said:

When you say no sign of a big breakout do you mean you think it's going to do at least in the 30-40 million dollar range or possibly even go sub 30 for the weekend because that would not be good.

40m looks tough. Its hard to extrapolate at this point as pace is really low. If I have to guess its looking at 2.5m ish thursday only gross. So around 25-30m range. 

[charlie Jatinder]

It seems MTC1 tracked was way off for Challengers. @keysersoze123

 

Actuals $900K vs $373K + $723K = $1096K

[emoviefan]

10 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

40m looks tough. Its hard to extrapolate at this point as pace is really low. If I have to guess its looking at 2.5m ish thursday only gross. So around 25-30m range. 

Sometimes a studio can throw everything against the wall marketing wise including having a good movie and it still does not work. What can you do. Just going to keep hoping it comes alive in the final week and has strong WOM and Walkups on the weekend.

[abracadabra1998]

1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said:

It seems MTC1 tracked was way off for Challengers. @keysersoze123

 

Actuals $900K vs $373K + $723K = $1096K

Still the same overall values you reported yesterday for previews and EA?

[HummingLemon496]

What is Star Wars Ep. 1 OW looking like?

[emoviefan]

55 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:

What is Star Wars Ep. 1 OW looking like?

It's going to be number 1 for the weekend. Only kidding I think. But if the Fall Guy does not pick it up in the final week  it might be closer than anybody would have thought.