The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[vafrow]

On 5/22/2024 at 4:41 AM, vafrow said:

 

The Garfield Movie, Western GTA (Southern Ontario), T-2, Thursday previews

 

Total Sales: 18

New Sales: 7

Growth: 64%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 14

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 1.3

Ticket premium in effect: No

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Early Afternoon: 1/1

Late Afternoon: 3/3

Early Evening: 5/5

Late Evening: 5/5

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Regular: 2/4

3D Regular: 9/6

Dolby: 5/2

3D Dolby: 2/2

 

Comps

0.054x KFP4 for $0.2M

0.151x Wonka for $0.5M

0.947x IF for $1.7M

0.202x Paw Patrol Mighty Pups*  for ???

 

Average: $0.8M

 

The good news is that it's not far off from IF which had strong enough walk ups to be decent. But it's still not great.

 

I threw in what little data I had for Paw Patrol. Canada was the only market with previews. I had to take an estimate of the data as I captured a bigger radius. The hope was that maybe this is underperforming because it's an animated title that's hitting the younger family demo who are waiting for the weekend. But, if Paw Patrol could do well in September, there's really no excuse here.

 

The Garfield Movie, Western GTA (Southern Ontario), T-1, Thursday previews

 

Total Sales: 30

New Sales: 13

Growth: 67%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 14

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 2.1

Ticket premium in effect: No

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Early Afternoon: 2/1

Late Afternoon: 12/3

Early Evening: 8/5

Late Evening: 8/5

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Regular: 14/4

3D Regular: 9/6

Dolby: 2/2

3D Dolby: 5/2

 

Comps

0.071x KFP4 for $0.3M

0.171x Wonka for $0.6M

0.714x IF for $1.3M

0.260x Paw Patrol Mighty Pups*  for ???

 

Average: $0.7M

 

That's a weak finish for something with a really low baseline. Last week, at least IF saw a good final surge. This failed to match that pace.

Edited May 23 by vafrow

[vafrow]

On 5/22/2024 at 4:51 AM, vafrow said:

 

Furiosa, T-2 Thursday previews, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 192

New Sales: 38

Growth: 25%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 22

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 8.7

Ticket premium in effect: Yes

 

Tickets by Showtime Slot 

Late Afternoon: 13/4

Early Evening: 124/9

Late Evening: 55/9

 

Tickets by Format

Dolby: 58/6

IMAX: 112/6

VIP: 17/5

4DX: 5/2

Regular: 0/3

 

Comps

0.180x Dune 2 for $1.8M

1.143x KOTPOTA for $5.7M

0.526x HG:BoSS for $3.0M

 

Average: $3.5M

 

I'd say this isn't bad for a property that should be more front loaded. I still think the POTA comp is probably the best, and it's looking strong.

 

Furiosa, T-1 Thursday previews, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 237

New Sales: 45

Growth: 23%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 22

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 10.8

Ticket premium in effect: Yes

 

Tickets by Showtime Slot 

Late Afternoon: 13/4

Early Evening: 153/9

Late Evening: 71/9

 

Tickets by Format

Dolby: 69/6

IMAX: 138/6

VIP: 23/5

4DX: 7/2

Regular: 0/3

 

Comps

0.197x Dune 2 for $2.0M

1.030x KOTPOTA for $5.2M

0.563x HG:BoSS for $3.2M

 

Average: $3.5M

 

This is a very weak finish. It didn't maintain pace with POTA, which I was hoping it might follow. 

 

At this stage, it's extremely IMAX heavy, but no showings over the course of the weekend are more than a third full, so there's zero rush factor to buy tickets. I don't think we're looking at bigger than normal walk ups or anything.

[el sid]

Final numbers for Thursday and Friday in a few hours. 

 

Garfield, counted yesterday for Thursday, had 173 sold tickets (in 7 theaters).

 

Comps (both films also counted on Wednesday of the release week for Thursday): Dolittle (925k from previews) had 245 sold tickets = 0.65M.

And Lyle (575k) had 106 = 0.95M. 

Average: 0.8M. 

 

That's too low but I had no better and more comps. For today I have. I posted it rather to see how big Garfield's jump is and how it behaves in comparison. 

 

By the way, Garfield's Friday looked (way) better with 240 sold tickets (IF had 421 sold tickets on Thursday for Thursday last week, Dolittle 395 back then). I don't think Garfield can reach these numbers but at least it will be a closer battle.

[YM!]

A Q&D (Quick and Dirty) for Garfield’s T-6 hours is at 39 tickets sold for Thursday and 89 including EA, therefore Garfield is at 34.5% of IF without EA, with EA it’s at 78.7% at about the same point in time. Friday and Saturday looks weak so it’ll need good walkups. So yeah 1.8M-2M with EA is my guess.

[TwoMisfits]

6 hours ago, Cmasterclay said:

Just as long as wide releases don't dip below 100 a year or we have a high volume of theater closures, we should at least be able to plateau around $9 billion a year if everyone else stays locked in to the habit.

 

See, I think this year is breaking more habits...I've seen 2 movies this year (and am gonna be away for Mem Day, so no movies til June), and one was a 2023 release.

 

I have bought advance tickets to 2 Cinemark summer kid movies.

 

But last year, I think I saw 16-18 movies in theater (with 4 of them kid summer movies)...and definitely more than 2 in the 1st 5 months.  

 

I still have my kid's movie sub, but that may not be his big Xmas gift (the renewal) this year - he's kinda moving away, so I'll go for discount day showings again...and probably less frequently (or the same) as this year...

 

Money/inflation is part of the loss...better cheaper entertainment options is another...and lack of quality or desired product is definitely another (I mean, I haven't watched some of the 2024 movies on streaming, even though I could, so that is playing a role)...

 

But this is tracking, so to get it on point...

 

Final sets for Garfield and Furiosa were the same at my PLF and reg theater - 3 screens (with 1 PLF each) at the PLF and 3 screens at the non-PLF.  Plenty of room to do well this weekend if either can.

 

PS - And they have acres of showings today.  The new Cinemark 2024 policy seems to be the clear out Thursday nights for openers, so they have almost as many showings today as Friday...

 

PPS - And March is gone and April is gone except a single showing of Challengers at both theaters...so holdovers not from May will probably not have a great weekend...milestones are gonna be rough to make for them...

Edited May 23 by TwoMisfits

[AniNate]

IF seems to be holding its own in presales, 42 Friday compared to Garfield's 75. Imagine it's pulling a significant audience away

[filmlover]

8 hours ago, AniNate said:

I don't really want to get into melodramatics regarding the schedule but it does seem like it would be more ideal for Universal if Twisters and Despicable Me switched release dates. They seem to be leaning into the whole red-blooded 'murican angle with Twisters anyway so it makes more sense as a July 4th release. I dunno if they were afraid of a possible Horizon breakout or something but that doesn't seem like that's gonna be too big a concern now.

Despicable Me/Minions has been an early July/Independence Day weekend franchise since the first movie 14 summer movie seasons ago (they even ended up sitting on Minions 2 for two full years during the pandemic), they probably didn't want to give that up.

 

Twisters is opening in the same late July spot that Universal launched Nope and Oppenheimer in (easy to forget probably lol but this is also made by an Oscar-recognized filmmaker) so they might be hoping that date ends up being a good luck charm for them once again. Of course, when they dated it there Deadpool 3 wasn't slated for the following weekend until later, but Universal's entire 2024 is extremely light as it is, so delaying it to a later date would've meant one less movie in the summer sweepstakes for them.

[YM!]

7 minutes ago, AniNate said:

IF seems to be holding its own in presales, 42 Friday compared to Garfield's 75. Imagine it's pulling a significant audience away

Kind of reminds me of Trolls vs Wish in that when two family films open together in a week of space, both underwhelm but the more appealing one does better. This time, it’s the original. Fully expect the same thing to happen with this September’s showdown of Transformers and Wild Robot. One of them should really consider moving to Indigenous People’s Day weekend.

[YM!]

Furiosa’s T-6 hours is 197 tickets across four theaters. Should match Napoleon’s 272 tickets that NS/MF had thirty minutes before showtime. Thinking around 3.5m-4.5m previews. Garfield feels like about 1.5-2M with EA for previews. 
 

Thinking Furiosa should do around 35m OW with Garfield around 25m OW

[YM!]

1 minute ago, filmlover said:

Despicable Me/Minions has been an early July/Independence Day weekend franchise since the first movie 14 summer movie seasons ago (they even ended up sitting on Minions 2 for two full years during the pandemic), they probably didn't want to give that up.

 

Twisters is opening in the same late July spot that Universal launched Nope and Oppenheimer in (easy to forget probably lol but this is also made by an Oscar-recognized filmmaker) so they might be hoping that date ends up being a good luck charm for them once again. Of course, when they dated it there Deadpool 3 wasn't slated for the following weekend until later, but Universal's entire 2024 is extremely light as it is, so delaying it to a later date would've meant one less movie in the summer sweepstakes for them.

Not to mention even with Deadpool, Twisters has the benefit of being the only PG-13 tentpole this summer other than Apes so could get some families too old for IO2/DM4 but too young for Deadpool or Bad Boys.

[AniNate]

TF and Wild Robot have the benefit of pretty much nothing else aimed at kids coming after them until MoWicked. Might be willing to pay the price of a bad second week drop / weak opening weekend for the long runway afterwards. 

 

I do think even if tracking was unhelpful in feeding the narrative, that is about the limit of what IF could've done opening weekend, and if it does manage decent legs despite Garfield it does speak to the issue being more just a domestic disinterest in the latter

 

 

Edited May 23 by AniNate

[SpiderByte]

54 minutes ago, YM! said:

Furiosa’s T-6 hours is 197 tickets across four theaters. Should match Napoleon’s 272 tickets that NS/MF had thirty minutes before showtime. Thinking around 3.5m-4.5m previews. Garfield feels like about 1.5-2M with EA for previews. 
 

Thinking Furiosa should do around 35m OW with Garfield around 25m OW

I knew Garfield softened but didn't realize Furiosa got hit as well. Ouch.

[Pinacolada]

1 hour ago, YM! said:

Furiosa’s T-6 hours is 197 tickets across four theaters. Should match Napoleon’s 272 tickets that NS/MF had thirty minutes before showtime. Thinking around 3.5m-4.5m previews. Garfield feels like about 1.5-2M with EA for previews. 
 

Thinking Furiosa should do around 35m OW with Garfield around 25m OW

All things considered, I would take a 35m 3 day OW for Furiosa. Solid over 40m+ 4 day.

 

I just worry projections will continue to drop to where it's gonna hit low 30s or worse....

 

 

[Hatebox]

Somewhat relieved Garfield isn’t another fucking Mario 

[emoviefan]

7 minutes ago, Pinacolada said:

All things considered, I would take a 35m 3 day OW for Furiosa. Solid over 40m+ 4 day.

 

I just worry projections will continue to drop to where it's gonna hit low 30s or worse....

 

 

That's my fear that's it in the death spiral right now. The only hope as some pointed out is that Dune Part 2 was looking not great in that final week and we all panicked and the walkups came through and we know the rest of the story. Not sure that will happen here but  what can we do but hope.

[Krissykins]

35 and 25 would be bad for both, what a shame. 

[Alexander]

When something like 21-23 and 31-33 is even more likely. Ouch.

[vafrow]

5 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

The Garfield Movie, Western GTA (Southern Ontario), T-1, Thursday previews

 

Total Sales: 30

New Sales: 13

Growth: 67%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 14

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 2.1

Ticket premium in effect: No

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Early Afternoon: 2/1

Late Afternoon: 12/3

Early Evening: 8/5

Late Evening: 8/5

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Regular: 14/4

3D Regular: 9/6

Dolby: 2/2

3D Dolby: 5/2

 

Comps

0.071x KFP4 for $0.3M

0.171x Wonka for $0.6M

0.714x IF for $1.3M

0.260x Paw Patrol Mighty Pups*  for ???

 

Average: $0.7M

 

That's a weak finish for something with a really low baseline. Last week, at least IF saw a good final surge. This failed to match that pace.

 

Anyone looking for some optimism around Garfield, I did a quick count on Friday sales. I usually don't bother with that, but, I was curious.

 

While Thursday sales don't seem to have moved much from my morning count of 30, Friday sales are at 238.

 

That's a pretty ridiculous ratio that we don't see often. There's maybe more potential here over the weekend.

[emoviefan]

I am just going to throw this out there to counter the doom we are all doing. This is a holiday weekend and people have plenty of time to see a movie. Maybe neither Furiosa or Garfield are movies people feel like they have to buy tickets early and they will decide to go at the last minute. Or not and the weekend will be the disaster it's looking like. Will see.

[YM!]

6 minutes ago, emoviefan said:

I am just going to throw this out there to counter the doom we are all doing. This is a holiday weekend and people have plenty of time to see a movie. Maybe neither Furiosa or Garfield are movies people feel like they have to buy tickets early and they will decide to go at the last minute. Or not and the weekend will be the disaster it's looking like. Will see.

Yeah I could buy a late walkup surge. There’s a few movies that have had bad presales for their genre and overcome it in walkups. Not going to really change my predictions on previews but I wouldn’t be surprised in overindexing possibilities or higher IM even if I can’t see it now.