The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[emoviefan]

Unless Bad Boys ROD falls off a cliff in these last 9 days at least 50 million on OW seems likely. Yes that will be down from For Life's OW but that was after a 17 year gap and a renewed buzz with the director switch. This one only 4 years later and same directors. With the budget being the same and summer weekdays to play as long as WOM is good it should do well. Maybe just not the breakout massive surprise we want and need right now.

[AnthonyJPHer]

Lord of the Rings trilogy (2024 re-release)

 

I happen to have some numbers for all three films. This was a pain to get through. Fandago crashed on me multiple times so it took me hours to get this finished. @Porthos I now understand your pain. 

Anyway, enough babbling. Onto the juicy numbers! 
 

LORD OF THE RINGS: FELLOWSHIP OF THE RING does 269 tickets for 6 showtimes over 4 theaters on Saturday, June 8, 2024

 

Only 21 tickets for 4 showings over 4 theaters for Saturday, June 15, 2024

 

LORD OF THE RINGS: THE TWO TOWERS sold 243 tickets over 4 theaters for Saturday, June 9, 2024

 

Only 22 tickets sold for 4 showings over 4 theaters for Saturday, June 16, 2024

 

LORD OF THE RINGS: RETURN OF THE KING sold 281 tickets over 4 theaters for Saturday, June 10, 2024

 

Only 16 tickets sold for 4 showings over 4 theaters for Saturday, June 17, 2024

 

852 tickets sold in total. 

 

793 tickets sold for the first week

59 tickets sold for the second week

[Joyous Legion]

3 hours ago, Menor the Destroyer said:

That is normal, I think everyone is factoring it in. MCU films are more preview heavy than Pixar.

Yeah I feel I am being a bit optimistic penciling true FSS at 4.2x Th for DPW. For IO I think it can crack 10x, so just  huge huge gap there already being factored in. 

Edited May 29 by Legion Again

[Flip]

23 hours ago, Flip said:

Decided to add one more theater but there was good growth in both of the original two.

 

Inside Out 2 (T-17)

12 showtimes/122 tix sold (+41)

 

Bad Boys 4 (T-10)

 

14 showtimes/118 tix sold (+56)

Inside Out 2 (T-16)

12 showtimes/121 tix sold (-1)

 

Bad Boys 4 (T-9)

 

14 showtimes/120 tix sold (+2)

[HummingLemon496]

48 minutes ago, Legion Again said:

Yeah I feel I am being a bit optimistic penciling true FSS at 4.2x Th for DPW. For IO I think it can crack 10x, so just  huge huge gap there already being factored in. 

35M * 5.2 = 182M OW? Does that sound about right? Maybe then it can do 2.75x for a 5 in front?

Edited May 29 by HummingLemon496

[Flip]

The Watchers (T-9) (D6)

 

8 showtimes/34 tix sold

 

mainly using this so I can have a comp for A Quiet Place, but these are good numbers considering it’s only playing in 2/3 theaters I track

 

 

[abracadabra1998]

On 5/27/2024 at 8:53 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

Minnesota Previews:

 

Haikyu!! The Dumpster Battle (T-3):

Day: T-3	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 16 theaters	45	464	464	4543	10.21

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		141	141	30.39
MTC1:		281	281	60.56
Alamo:		17	17	3.66
Other chains:		166	166	35.78

 

Comps:

1.49x Spy x Family Code: $995k

0.89x Demon Slayer Kimetsu No Yaiba: $1.6 Million (17 theaters)

 

Average: 1.3 Million

 

Not bad, not bad.

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

Haikyu!! The Dumpster Battle (T-2):

Day: T-2	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 17 theaters	54	33	497	6121	8.12

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		146	5	29.38
MTC1:		301	20	60.56
Alamo:		21	4	4.23
Other chains:		175	9	35.21

 

Comps:

1.49x Spy x Family Code: $995k

Demon Slayer Kimetsu No Yaiba: Missed

 

No movement, probs looking at around $1 Million previews

[thajdikt]

20 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:

35M * 5.2 = 182M OW? Does that sound about right? Maybe then it can do 2.75x for a 5 in front?

35M previews seems optimistic, 30M should be more realistic imo 

[keysersoze123]

6 hours ago, Eric Lasagna said:

That is very much not what that data implies whatsoever, and I’ve explained this numerous times already, but go off I guess. 🙄 

Why do I feel this is very personal to Eric?????

 

6 hours ago, Porthos said:

Have to admit, I'm finding the "lol Quorum" posts tiring as well.  They're a data point (or rather a set of data points) that some folks find useful and others don't.  But, really now, do we really need to be constantly belittling them?  Especially since some people do in fact find them useful?

 

Just roll your eyes and move on if you think they aren't adding much to the discussion here.

 

(I do reserve the right to keep making the occasional "lol Deadline" post because traditions are important. )

 

 

4 hours ago, el sid said:

When it comes to The Quorum.com: E.g. the awareness normally rises over the weeks before a film is released (so Deadpool & Wolverine will probably still rise and has already very good percentages) but their charts also showed the stagnation or even decrease of buzz for certain films. Of course they're not always right (they dont have daily trackers like we have who cover many regions or somebody like @charlie Jatinder, @Porthos including his dark magic or @keysersoze123 etc. 😉) but overall IMO their data is helpful, also because it's a mirror of the hype around a movie over the weeks and months before the release and it's the same here. Some films first have great buzz e.g. because of a well received trailer but over the weeks not much happens anymore and that is covered.

 

This is very specific. I dont see any metric where Bad Boys would have higher awareness than Deadpool. Deadpool has been everywhere past 2 weeks including huge trailer views and push from Reynolds and co. I just dont buy this info from the site. That is why I LOL'd. I can write a story as to why it sucks but why bother. 

 

I will try to avoid commenting on Quorum going forward. 

[Inceptionzq]

On 5/23/2024 at 6:27 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Deadpool & Wolverine Denver Thursday

2985(+89)/24018 in 9 theaters

 

0.886

Adjusted Thor L&T Day 4

25.69M

 

Probably gonna be the last day of comps for while

Deadpool & Wolverine Denver Thursday [+5 days of sales]

3471(+486)/24018 in 9 theaters

[Inceptionzq]

On 5/22/2024 at 10:04 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Deadpool & Wolverine Alamo Drafthouse

T-64 Thursday

262 Showings

10426

+629

37698

ATP:

17.07

1.126	Thor L&T Day 3	32.66M
0.817	Doctor Strange MoM Day 3	29.42M

 

T-65 Friday

400 Showings

6481

+594

57675

ATP:

16.89

0.993	Thor L&T Day 3	40.29M
0.675	Doctor Strange MoM Day 3	36.94M

 

T-66 Saturday

402 Showings

5990

+646

57982

ATP:

15.86

1.026	Thor L&T Day 3	43.19M
0.644	Doctor Strange MoM Day 3	37.23M

 

T-67 Sunday

396 Showings

1979

+268

57395

ATP:

15.75

0.714	Thor L&T Day 3	23.21M
0.553	Doctor Strange MoM Day 3	21.49M

Deadpool & Wolverine Alamo Drafthouse [+6 days of sales]

 

T-58 Thursday

264 Showings

12014

+1588

37781

ATP:

17.00

 

T-59 Friday

404 Showings

7910

+1429

58125

ATP:

16.86

 

T-60 Saturday

402 Showings

7859

+1869

57968

ATP:

15.97

 

T-61 Sunday

396 Showings

2927

+948

57181

ATP:

15.87

[Inceptionzq]

On 5/23/2024 at 6:28 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Deadpool & Wolverine Emagine Entertainment

T-63 Thursday

206 Showings

3330

+277

31541

 

T-64 Friday

327 Showings

1385

+105

49520

 

T-65 Saturday

327 Showings

777

+76

49773

 

T-66 Sunday

314 Showings

236

+14

48376

Deadpool & Wolverine Emagine Entertainment [+5 days of sales]

 

T-58 Thursday

206 Showings

3782

+452

31549

 

T-59 Friday

327 Showings

1673

+288

49519

 

T-60 Saturday

327 Showings

1067

+290

49765

 

T-61 Sunday

314 Showings

312

+76

48368

[Rorschach]

Haikyu! The Dumpster Battle (Tuesday Night Outlook)

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

Thursday: 20/201 (10% sold)

-2 subtitled showings: 7/134

-1 dubbed showing: 13/67

 

Friday: 36/402 (9% sold)
-3 subtitled showings: 22/201

-3 dubbed showings: 14/201

Thurs + Fri: 56/603 (9.3% sold)

-5 subtitled showings: 29/335

-4 dubbed showings: 27/268

 

If only I had started box office tracking two weeks earlier, I could've used Spy x Family as a comp for this. Oh well. As is, though, these numbers seem pretty damn good. Will echo @abracadabra1998's $1 mil previews prediction.

[keysersoze123]

On 5/27/2024 at 3:33 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Bad Boys 4 MTC1

Early Shows - 692/9869 15883.86 46 shows 

Previews - 13775/524152 258830.49 2587 shows

Friday - 11028/778985 199350.17 3856 shows

 

It should start to amp up sometime this week.  

Bad Boys 4 MTC1

Early Shows - 822/9869 18826.02 46 shows +130
Previews(T-9) - 14916/526146 280162.92 2598 shows +1141

Friday - 12218/780351 221912.05 3863 shows +1190

Edited May 29 by keysersoze123

[Rorschach]

In A Violent Nature (Tuesday Night Outlook)

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

Thursday:

3 2D showings: 6/201 (3% sold)

 

Friday:

6 2D showings: 5/402 (1.2% sold)

 

Thurs + Fri: 11/603 (1.8% sold)

 

Comp:

Tarot: $935k

Strangers: $876k

Average: $906k

 

Pretty pointless to do comps for the individual days, given that the sales are single digits, but Thurs + Fri combined probably paints a more accurate idea of how this could perform. That average is not too far off from Late Night with the Devil's $1.16 mil opening day.

Edited May 29 by Rorschach

[Joyous Legion]

3 hours ago, thajdikt said:

35M previews seems optimistic, 30M should be more realistic imo 

35 seems more realistic than 30 for now imo but the very early start for MCU does leave things a bit uncertain

[SaltyPistola]

Unless I'm reading it all wrong, the numbers for IO2 seem quite good? The numbers aren't crazy but it's still a couple of weeks out and seems to be keeping pace with bad boys and the like. Are Pixar films usually presale heavy? I know they have a huge fanbase but I'm expecting this will be a walkup driven opening weekend when the time comes around. 

 

 

 

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Deadpool & Wolverine Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-59 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	231	28648	32661	4013	12.29%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

65

 

Approx Earned So Far (Sacto Market Based Comps)

		Final Sold	% of Final		$ So Far
MoM		21117	19.00%		6.84m
L&T		16962	23.66%		6.86m
BP2		16800	23.89%		6.69m
AM3		10475	38.31%		6.70m
GOTG3		10750	37.33%		6.53m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Deadpool & Wolverine's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:       838/12927  [6.48% sold]
Matinee:    NOT YET COMPILED
3D:             356/6802  [5.23% | 8.87% of all tickets sold]
PLF:        2231/11037  [20.21% | 55.59% of all tickets sold]
----

CM EQUIV        55 seats sold today at equivalent sources of tracking
TROS EQUIV    55 seats sold today at equivalent sources of tracking

 

=====

 

Threw a chart together at pretty much the last moment.  Might still play with it a bit, but it's basically a version of things I've done previously, but prettified.

 

Might still play with it a bit.  Or junk it altogether.  See how it goes.

 

Deadpool & Wolverine Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-58 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	231	28604	32661	4057	12.42%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

44

 

Approx Earned So Far (Sacto Market Based Comps)

		Final Sold	% of Final		$ So Far
MoM		21117	19.21%		6.92m
L&T		16962	23.92%		6.94m
BP2		16800	24.15%		6.76m
AM3		10475	38.73%		6.78m
GOTG3		10750	37.74%		6.60m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Deadpool & Wolverine's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:       851/12927  [6.58% sold]
Matinee:    NOT YET COMPILED
3D:             371/6802  [5.45% | 9.14% of all tickets sold]
PLF:       2244/11037  [20.33% | 55.31% of all tickets sold]

----
CM EQUIV        97 seats sold today at equivalent sources of tracking
TROS EQUIV    99 seats sold today at equivalent sources of tracking

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Inside Out 2 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-17 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	158	23727	24273	546	2.25%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

15

 

T-17 Comps            SHITTY-ASS COMPS EDITION - DON'T TAKE TOO SERIOUSLY

	%		Sold T-17	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Sonic 2	141.09		13	387		0/76	11279/11666	3.32%		3951	13.82%		8.82m
Minion 2	172.24		24	317		0/167	24883/25200	1.26%		6591	8.28%		18.52m
NOPE	200.74		15	272		0/84	13423/13695	1.99%		3822	14.29%		12.85m
Shaz 2	150.41		6	363		0/109	17336/17699	2.05%		1663	32.83%		5.11m
TLM	44.54		66	1226		0/153	21353/22579	5.43%		6561	8.32%		4.59m
Barbie	35.04		91	1558		0/96	11069/12627	12.34%		12077	4.52%		7.92m
Wonka	268.97		17	203		0/113	19084/19287	1.05%		1975	27.65%		9.41m
Aqua 2	141.09		43	387		0/101	16401/16788	2.31%		2629	20.77%		6.35m
GBFE	150.41		35	363		0/114	18532/18895	1.92%		2197	24.85%		7.07m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Inside Out 2's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     127/10075  [1.26% sold]
Matinee:    45/2674  [1.68% | 8.24% of all tickets sold]
3D:            42/3852  [1.09% | 7.69% of all tickets sold]
PLF:        228/9686  [2.35% | 41.76% of all tickets sold]

 

Inside Out 2 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-16 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	158	23702	24273	571	2.35%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

25

 

T-16 Comps            SHITTY-ASS COMPS EDITION - DON'T TAKE TOO SERIOUSLY

	%		Sold T-16	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Sonic 2	133.72		40	427		0/76	11239/11666	3.66%		3951	14.45%		8.36m
Minion 2	165.51		28	345		0/167	24852/25197	1.37%		6591	8.66%		17.79m
NOPE	190.33		28	300		0/86	13395/13695	2.19%		3822	14.94%		12.18m
Shaz 2	152.27		12	375		0/109	17324/17699	2.12%		1663	34.34%		5.18m
TLM	42.49		118	1344		0/154	21376/22720	5.92%		6561	8.70%		4.38m
Barbie	34.54		95	1653		0/96	10974/12627	13.09%		12077	4.73%		7.81m
Wonka	273.21		6	209		0/113	18788/18997	1.10%		1975	28.91%		9.56m
Aqua 2	140.99		18	405		0/101	16383/16788	2.41%		2629	21.72%		6.34m
GBFE	152.27		12	375		0/114	18520/18895	1.98%		2197	25.99%		7.16m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Inside Out 2's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     129/10075  [1.28% sold]
Matinee:    45/2674  [1.68% | 7.88% of all tickets sold]
3D:            42/3852  [1.09% | 7.36% of all tickets sold]
PLF:        239/9686  [2.47% | 41.86% of all tickets sold]

[Firepower]

Will Bad Boys cross 60 mln OW?