The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Porthos]

41 minutes ago, Relevation said:

Open question, could we be in for a weirdly high IM with Inside Out 2 here? Like, the THU:FRI sales ratio at MTC1 skews more towards FRI than Elemental (which had a 12.3x IM), FRI sales are growing at a faster rate than THU, it has the FUNKO event on SUN which is selling well, and it’s a Father’s Day boosted SUN to boot. If the IM conversation starts looking more like 12x or maybe even 13x, then this could be potentially charting for some really really really big numbers.

 

Might be slightly higher, but the Sunday event is limited, I believe, to AMC, while the Saturday event is limited to Marcus.

 

Both of the above won't be nothing (especially if there is Thr/Fri -> Sat/Sun shifting going on).  But being limited to a couple of chains (even if one of them is the Big Kahuna) still mitigates things to a large degree.

[TheFlatLannister]

On 5/27/2024 at 11:11 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
151	1522	30616	5.0%

 

COMPS

T-17

(0.731x) of Little Mermaid $7.53M

(3.624x) of Elemental $8.70M

(4.990x) of Trolls 3 $6.49M

Comps average: $7.57M

Orlando

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
157	3217	30823	5.0%

 

COMPS

T-3

(0.780x) of Little Mermaid $8.04M

(3.590x) of Elemental $8.62M

(2.242x) of Wonka $7.85M

Comps average: $8.17M

 

Ok, now I'm not so sure...

Probably gets close to $10M?

[TwoMisfits]

2 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
157	3217	30823	5.0%

 

COMPS

T-3

(0.780x) of Little Mermaid $8.04M

(3.590x) of Elemental $8.62M

(2.242x) of Wonka $7.85M

Comps average: $8.17M

 

Ok, now I'm not so sure...

Probably gets close to $10M?

 

At this comp, I am thinking $8M for Thursday.  A lot of the normal diverse Disney audience got served this weekend with BB4...so, in the theory folks are being choosy about movies and their money, this may end up a strongly "Taylor Swift" movie demo incoming, I think...

 

Hope I'm wrong...

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

Inside Out 2

 

T-4

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
685	6489	136510	4.8%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

608

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

T-4

(3.734x) of Kung Fu panda 4 $14.19M

(6.738x) of Garfield $12.80M

Comps average: $13.50M

 

Still growing at a fast rate. Definitely over indexing 

FLORIDA 

 

Inside Out 2

 

T-3

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
692	7609	137935	5.5%

^{*numbers taken as of 5:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

1120

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

7

 

COMPS

T-3

(3.822x) of Kung Fu panda 4 $14.52M

(1.610x) of Ghostbusters $7.57M

Comps average: $11.05M

 

Well, this is moving excellent throughout Florida. 

[Porthos]

37 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
157	3217	30823	5.0%

 

COMPS

T-3

(0.780x) of Little Mermaid $8.04M

(3.590x) of Elemental $8.62M

(2.242x) of Wonka $7.85M

Comps average: $8.17M

 

Ok, now I'm not so sure...

Probably gets close to $10M?

 

I've been softing it for a while, but most of my comps are probably pointing to 9m-ISH.  Extreme emphasis in -ISH as that leaves plenty of room for it to hit 10m.

 

Problem here is, since pure kids animation is *SO* walkup dependent, it's hard to predict in advance how heavy the walkups will be.  Worse, or rather more complicating, is that it gets rougher to do 2x or 3x "a metric fuck ton of tickets already".  

 

Not impossible, as Minions 2 showed.  But it does add to the uncertanity.

 

FWIW. I think my data is probably currently looking at something like 9.5m to 9.75m but it could very well still hit 10m+.  Just needs explosive growth.  Which we really won't know if it occurs until it actually occurs.

 

To put all of the above in a different way, the ingredients for explosive growth are here.  Won't know if it actually arrives until the next couple of days.  Which in a way is fun!  If we knew how it was all going to turn out ahead of time, it starts to get a little boring. 

[PNF2187]

9 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Pixar films aren't doing well in Canada on Thursday previews. Donno why. Lightyear and Elemental, both did eh in Canada on previews.

 

I have to wonder if Pixar films just generally underindex in Canada. Toy Story 4 did $434M domestic, but it only grossed $27.2M in Canada, which is fine, although that's below Aquaman ($31.5M), Aladdin ($29.6M), Far From Home ($35.3M), and Joker ($39.1M), and none of those crossed $400M domestic.

[VanillaSkies]

39 minutes ago, PNF2187 said:

 

I have to wonder if Pixar films just generally underindex in Canada. Toy Story 4 did $434M domestic, but it only grossed $27.2M in Canada, which is fine, although that's below Aquaman ($31.5M), Aladdin ($29.6M), Far From Home ($35.3M), and Joker ($39.1M), and none of those crossed $400M domestic.

FWIW, Canada relies heavily on immigration for population growth, as our birthrate is very low. That means less kids in general, as immigration is recent years has concentrated on foreign students and foreign workers, both of which or young adult and adult age.

 

So it isn’t surprising to see films that skew very young not matching the adult skewing films when compared to USA.

 

Of course, I’m sure there are other factors, but this would certainly be one of them.

[keysersoze123]

On 6/6/2024 at 12:18 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Despicable Me 4 MTC1 OD - 6542/1037611 107009.77 5492 shows

 

1st the show count is solid. This is as of now. Start is weaker than IO2 that started T-31 or something. But this movie's PS is irrelevant until T-7 or something. Let us see how things go. its OD should be great for movie going. it will drop in Jul 4 and then we have the weekend. So big 5 day weekend is in play. 

Despicable Me 4 MTC1 OD - 8429/1046495 139724.28 5517 shows

 

+4 days later. 

[charlie Jatinder]

Off topic, but yeah never noticed that Pixar isn’t big in Canada.

 

Incredibles 2 - 43M (7.1%)

Finding Dory - 37M (7.6%)

Toy Story 3 - 33M (8%)

Toy Story 4 - 30M (6.9%)

Inside Out 2 - 28.5M (8%)

 

In comparison 

 

Minions - 37M (11%)

Minions 2 - 34M (9.2%)

Despicable Me 2 - 34M (9.2%)

Despicable Me 3 - 27M (10.5%)

 

I guess that comes to the fact that immigrants in US are Mexican and other LATAM countries where animations does best while Canada get lot more South Asians where animations does meh.

Edited June 11 by charlie Jatinder

[Flip]

On 6/9/2024 at 11:00 PM, Flip said:

Inside Out 2 (T-4)

12 showtimes/344 tix sold (+40)

 

1.922x Bad Boys 4 T-4 [10.71m]

Friday (T-5): 16 showtimes/679 tix sold (+133!)

 

1.974x Thursday

 

hopefully new showtimes will be added because a fair amount of shows are getting close to capacity

 

A Quiet Place (T-18

 

12 showtimes/137 tix sold (+6)

 

Despicable Me 4 (T-24) (D5)

 

22 showtimes/58 tix sold (+2)

 

Twisters (T-39) (D4)

 

14 showtimes/37 tix sold (+2)

Inside Out 2 (T-3)

15 showtimes/442 tix sold (+98) stellar.

 

2.046x Bad Boys 4 T-3 [11.41m]

Friday (T-4): 16 showtimes/747 tix sold (+68) more growth is coming from Thursday since there are less seats available for Friday right now.

 

1.69x Thursday

 

encouraging that new showtimes got added to Thursday, but I’d hope they add new showtimes for Friday as well

 

A Quiet Place (T-17)

 

12 showtimes/143 tix sold (+6)

steady growth 

[grumpythepenguin]

1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Off topic, but yeah never noticed that Pixar isn’t big in Canada.

 

Red would've likely performed significantly better in Canada as it has an even higher percentage of east/southeast asian immigrants and that movie was by a Canadian director and takes place in Toronto.

[Spidey Freak]

Yeah, Turning Red had the potential to be Pixar's biggest hit in Canada. If Docter didn't bend over backwards to find any and every excuse to defend Chapek, he would know this.

[abracadabra1998]

23 hours ago, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

Inside Out 2 (T-4):

Day: T-4	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 24 theaters	190	370	936	30830	3.04

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		410	170	43.8
MTC1:		403	146	43.06
Alamo:		0	0	0
Other chains:		533	224	56.94

 

Comps:

8.83x The Garfield Movie (THU): $17 Million

7.2x IF: $12.6 Million

2.06x Kung Fu Panda 4: $7.83 Million (17 theaters)

1.94x Wonka: $6.78 Million (17 theaters)

5.78x Trolls 3: $7.51 Million (17 theaters)

2.28x Haunted Mansion (w/ EA): $7.07 Million (17 theaters)

 

Average: $9.8 Million

 

Really good pace, up against all comps again. Really inclined though to remove IF and Garfield as comps, I agree with M37 in that this will be more adult heavy (and thus more pre-sales heavy). 

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

Inside Out 2 (T-3):

Day: T-3	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 24 theaters	241	348	1284	36444	3.52

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		543	133	42.29
MTC1:		522	119	40.65
Alamo:		0	0	0
Other chains:		762	229	59.35

 

Comps:

2.25x Kung Fu Panda 4: $8.54 Million (17 theaters)

2.18x Wonka: $7.65 Million (17 theaters)

6.48x Trolls 3: $8.42 Million (17 theaters)

2.54x Haunted Mansion (w/ EA): $7.86 Million (17 theaters)

 

Average: $8.12 Million

 

Like I said, removed the lower family comps that were starting to go a little wild. Just don't think this will replicate those walk-ups. Still going up against every comp, just really stellar last week pace!

[crazymoviekid]

Inside Out 2: 

 

Thursday Comps: 

 

Theater 1: 34 Tickets

Theater 2: 96 Tickets

 

KFP4: $27.44M

Elemental: $11.56M

TLM: $7.98M

Minions 2: $8.03M

Lightyear: $9.14M

The Bad Guys: $13.59M

 

Feeling strong in $8M-$9M+.

[keysersoze123]

On 6/9/2024 at 9:02 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Inside Out 2 MTC1

Previews(T-4) - 45369/628991 830843.05 3242 shows +6485

Friday - 58069/1039058 1000679.04 5352 shows +10054

 

So final surge begins. Let us see how rest of the week goes. 

Inside Out 2 MTC1

Preview(T-3) - 55798/684259 1009942.13 3637 shows +10429

Friday - 80174/1164042 1365454.60 6239 shows +22105

 

Since the reactions came out so late, there is no impact to presales so far. That said Friday jump is uber strong. Let us see where things are tomorrow and final surge. Pace for previews ahead of Mermaid but real difference should be seen tomorrow. I would be surprised by sub 10m previews. I also strongly feel its true friday will be > 30m. Let us see where things on thursday before I extrapolate. For today I am seeing 110m+ OW. 

 

Edit: Grr got the friday increase wrong. 

Edited June 11 by keysersoze123

[keysersoze123]

I hope @rehpyc also provides an update this week. 

[TalismanRing]

Inside Out 2

 

Best Monday pre-sales at my NYC local since Oppenheimer and it bettered that by 4 seats.

 

Thur: 104/3499  

(Friday sales - 291)

 

A batch of bad comps - all over the place - I have a few better later in the week

 

Garfield:  $8.23m

Bad Boys 4: $26.23m

Fall Guy: $21.49m

Ghostbusters Empire: $30.55m

Ruby Gillman: $18.85m

Migration: $31.2m

Wonka:  $30.33m

Indiana Jones 5: $13.14m

Oppenheimer:  $10.92m

Uncharted: $13.27m

Ghostbusters: Afterlife: $13m

Frozen 2 : $7.25m (a mere 4 1/2 years old - add 20%)

 

 

Edited June 11 by TalismanRing

[charlie Jatinder]

35 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Friday +22105

 

Wow. 

[Rorschach]

Inside Out 2 (Monday Night Outlook)

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

Thursday:

4 IMAX showings: 30/1,552

3 XD Showings: 1/714

2 3D showings: 4/220

16 2D showings: 128/1,547

Total: 163/4,033 (4% sold)

 

Comps:

IF: $7.13 mil

Garfield: $10.82 mil

Apes (w/o EA): $11.99 mil

Average: $9.98 mil

Average (minus Apes): $8.98 mil

 

Friday:

5 IMAX showings: 49/1,940

4 XD showings: 0/952

4 3D showings: 9/390

27 2D showings: 329/2,738

Total: 387/6,020 (6.4% sold)

 

Comps:

IF: $62.16 mil

Garfield: $78.38 mil

Apes): $66.2 mil

Average: $68.91 mil

Average (minus Apes): $70.27 mil

 

Thurs + Fri: 550/10,053 (5.5% sold)

 

Comps: 

IF: $60.99 mil

Garfield: $75.79 mil

Apes (w/o EA): $71.14 mil

Average: $69.31 mil

Average (minus Apes): $68.39 mil

 

These are not good comps at all, lol, but they're all I got so I can live with it. Threw Apes in the mix since that's the biggest film I've tracked so far and also, honestly, I just wanted to see how they compared in totals.

 

Gonna ignore the Friday/combined day comps for now, but the Thursday comps seem more in line with what everyone else is reporting (if I had to guess, $10M is a very likely outcome). And the fact that Friday already has that big of a jump is a very encouraging sign. Curious to see how this one finishes out. 

[Cmasterclay]

.

Edited June 11 by Cmasterclay