The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[titanic2187]

14 minutes ago, Flip said:

To be fair I have seen a decent amount of ads this week trying to get dads to go on Father’s Day 

They did this to every Pixar's Father Day opener. 

[TomThomas]

45 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

Horizon

 

T-14

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
297	171	37595	0.45%

^{*numbers taken as of 11:00AM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

T-14

(0.104x) of Furosia $363k

(0.148x) of Civil War $429k

(0.144x) of Fall Guy $332k

Comps average: $375k

 

Terrible start, not shocking. Looks like even exhibitors don't believe in it as this is easily the lowest allocation in showings i've seen since tracking Florida. 

Damn(

[AnthonyJPHer]

On 6/7/2024 at 4:40 PM, AnthonyJPHer said:

Inside Out 2

 

THURSDAY PREVIEWS

 

PREVIOUS UPDATE: 787 tickets sold

NEW UPDATE: 1,112 tickets sold 

GROWTH: 41.2% growth (it sold 325 tickets since last update)

 

Amazing growth for Thursday, it’s really ramping up now, and if it keeps up this acceleration, I think 100m is very much in the discussion at this point. I can see previews being more than 8m at this point. 
 

FRIDAY

 

PREVIOUS UPDATE: 1,286 tickets sold

NEW UPDATE: 1,637 tickets sold 

GROWTH: 27.3% growth (it sold 351 tickets since last update) 

 

Strong growth for Friday. Not as good as Thursday’s growth but still good strong growth overall. Friday did sell more tickets though. I’m bullish at this point for this movie, so I think, like I mentioned before, 100m is a huge possibility. I won’t update until Wednesday night or Thursday morning but if walkups are strong and reviews are solid, things are looking bright for this movie

Inside Out 2 

 

THURSDAY PREVIEWS

 

PREVIOUS UPDATE: 1,112 tickets sold

NEW UPDATE: 2,070 tickets sold

GROWTH: 86.1% growth (it sold 958 tickets since last update)

 

WOW. What a massive jump in ticket sales. This is preforming really really strong. I think 10m previews is a huge possibility at this point and I can even see 11m. Pace is definitely accelerating now. Friday is even stronger, though. 
 

FRIDAY

 

PREVIOUS UPDATE: 1,637 tickets sold

NEW UPDATE: 4,601 tickets sold

GROWTH: 181% growth (it sold a mind boggling 2,964 tickets since last update)

 

HOLY ACCELERATION BATMAN! Friday is preforming insanely good. I think 30m Friday is insanely possible and 100m even more likely now. Walkups should be amazing. This might open even higher. I’m not sure my 110m prediction is accurate anymore. But we’ll see if walkups are strong. If they are, 100m is locked imo. 
 

(Note: Friday took me over 2 and a half hours to count. That’s how big the acceleration was)

[AniNate]

The 7pm XD showing tomorrow in Canton is pretty close to capacity

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

105-110M opening for IO2. Call it.

 

 

[Relevation]

9 minutes ago, AMC Theaters Enjoyer said:

105-110M opening for IO2. Call it.

 

 

 

$11.75M previews, 11.5x internal multi 

$135M opening weekend 

[AniNate]

Dream Productions working overtime today

[mikeymichael]

Haven't been able to follow this for the past few weeks. What's the narrative been for IO2 as it approaches OW? Steady increases or is it breaking out?

[dallas]

45 minutes ago, AMC Theaters Enjoyer said:

105-110M opening for IO2. Call it.

 

 

120M. 

[HummingLemon496]

47 minutes ago, Relevation said:

 

$11.75M previews, 11.5x internal multi 

$135M opening weekend 

Y not 12.5*11.8 for $147.5M

 

$530M DOM, $1280M WW

Edited June 13 by HummingLemon496

[Boxofficerules]

Inside Out 2 could suffer from the minus walk up effect, this is where people refund their precooked tickets.

[AnthonyJPHer]

7 minutes ago, Boxofficerules said:

Inside Out 2 could suffer from the minus walk up effect, this is where people refund their precooked tickets.

precooked? Didn’t know you were supposed to eat them

[Flip]

15 hours ago, Flip said:

Inside Out 2 (T-1)

25 showtimes/676 tix sold (+158) so-so

 

1.33x Bad Boys 4 T-1 [7.43m] maybe Bad Boys just had exceptional growth

6.57x Watchers T-1 [6.56m] maybe Watchers over indexed?

T-0 should be around 860-910 tickets sold.

 

Inside Out 2 (T-0)

25 showtimes/980 tix sold (+304) 

 

1.35x Bad Boys 4 T-0 [7.54m]

6.62x Watchers T-0 [6.62m] 

take the comps with a grain of salt since the genres are wildly different, but they’re also the only ones I have.

 

It rocketed past my prediction, but I think that’s more because I underestimated it due to yesterday being weak, and the final push was closer to what the numbers earlier this week suggested. Not going to make a prediction since I have no suitable comps.

 

Interesting tidbit, Deadpool 3 T-55 was only 18 seats less than Inside Out 2 T-0!

Edited June 13 by Flip
Typo

[kayumanggi]

 

[Rorschach]

12 hours ago, Rorschach said:

Inside Out 2 (Wednesday Night Outlook)

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

Thursday: 294/4,033 (7.3% sold) [+92]

4 IMAX showings: 41/1,552

3 XD Showings: 6/714

2 3D showings: 16/220

16 2D showings: 231/1,547

 

Comps:

IF: $9.35 mil

Garfield: $14.15 mil

Apes (w/o EA): $14.55 mil

Minions 2: $12.49 mil

Lightyear: $15.76 mil

Sonic 2: $10.04 mil

Average: $12.71 mil

Inside Out 2 (Thursday Afternoon Outlook) - T1 hour

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

Thursday: 471/4,033 (11.7% sold) [+177]

4 IMAX showings: 71/1,552

3 XD Showings: 24/714

2 3D showings: 24/220

16 2D showings: 352/1,547

 

Comps:

IF: $9.16 mil

Garfield: $20.61 mil

Apes (w/o EA): $8.79 mil

Average: $12.85 mil

[TheFlatLannister]

20 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
197	4575	34941	13.1%

 

COMPS

T-1

(0.858x) of Little Mermaid $8.84M

(3.648x) of Elemental $8.76M

(2.688x) of Wonka $9.41M

Comps average: $9.00M

 

Yep over $9M now. Should be $9.5Mish by tomorrow 

Orlando

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
197	6703	34941	19.2%

 

COMPS

T-0

(1.001x) of Little Mermaid $10.31M

(4.120x) of Elemental $9.89M

(3.014x) of Wonka $10.55M

Comps average: $10.25M

 

BANG! Absolutely insane late growth. $10M+ is locked for sure

Edited June 13 by TheFlatLannister

[TheFlatLannister]

20 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

Inside Out 2

 

T-1

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
830	12044	166425	7.2%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

2431

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

13

 

COMPS

T-1

(3.976x) of Kung Fu panda 4 $15.11M

(1.798x) of Ghostbusters $8.45M

Comps average: $11.78M

 

Amazing pace. Early projection would be $10M+

FLORIDA 

 

Inside Out 2

 

T-0

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
830	17222	166425	10.3%

^{*numbers taken as of 3:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

5178

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

T-0

(4.277x) of Kung Fu panda 4 $16.25M

(2.216x) of Ghostbusters $10.42M

(1.262x) of Dune 2 $11.74M

Comps average: $12.80M

 

Somehow even crazier growth than Orlando. I'm betting on $11M+ maybe even $12M+ if walkups stay this strong. 

[Flip]

On 5/31/2024 at 10:44 PM, Flip said:

Deadpool 3 (T-55)

 

36 showtimes/962 tix sold

 

Deadpool 3 (T-42)

 

36 showtimes/1076 tix sold (+114) good growth for this far out.

 

1.1x Inside Out 2 T-0 [???]

1.49x Bad Boys 4 T-0 [8.31m]
29.89x Twisters T-42* [???]

 

*tbf this was D1 but still pretty funny.

 

[el sid]

Inside Out 2, counted today for tomorrow = true Friday, had 3.110 sold tickets (of course with shows in 7 theaters). Best sales in California but - rare this year - it has also very good sales between the coasts e.g. 266 sold tickets in the AMC in Texas, 261 in Michigan and 121 in Arizona (for comparison Furiosa had 19, 16 and 42 sold tickets in that regions). 

 

Comps (always counted on Thursday of the release week for Friday): Minions 2 (37.4M true Friday) had 2.893 sold tickets = 40.2M. 

JC (10.7M) had 817 = 40.7M.

And Sonic 2 had 1.851 sold tickets = 34.5M. 

The Garfield and IF comps are unrealistic high so I don't include them.

 

Average: 38.45M. 

 

I had my doubts and let's see how good the legs are but the presales are definitely very good also in my theaters, I have to admit it .

Edited June 13 by el sid

[Porthos]

11 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Inside Out 2 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-1 day and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	257	28160	32945	4785	14.52%

 

Total Showings Added Today	18
Total Seats Added Today	1453
Total Seats Sold Today	1607

 

T-1 Comps

	%		Sold T-1	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Sonic 2	165.97		787	2883		0/125	12991/15874	18.16%		3951	121.11%		10.37m
Lightyear	176.50		675	2711		1/196	20030/22741	11.92%		4091	116.96%		9.18m
Minion 2	119.03		1286	4020		0/214	26160/30180	13.32%		6591	72.60%		12.80m
Element	487.77		308	981		—/—	9799/10780	9.10%		1910	250.52%		11.71m
Barbie	50.62		1837	9453		3/268	20134/29587	31.95%		12077	39.62%		11.44m
Wonka	377.96		243	1266		0/211	25506/26772	4.73%		1975	242.28%		13.23m
GBFE	316.26		310	1513		0/208	27725/29238	5.17%		2197	217.80%		14.86m
KFP4	380.06		360	1259		0/187	19460/20719	6.08%		2346	203.96%		14.44m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Inside Out 2's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:       1081/11274  [9.59% sold]
Matinee:    543/3344  [16.24% | 11.35% of all tickets sold]
3D:             301/4240  [7.10% | 6.29% of all tickets sold]
PLF:        1697/10730  [15.82% | 35.46% of all tickets sold]

 

=====

 

DenzelSays***BOOM*** DOT GIF goes [HERE]

 

Yeah.  Fantastic day today, I'd say.  A lot of the higher comps will crash tomorrow, but, really, right now it's just a question of ATP/how many kids tickets get sold.  And that's a question that I really have no clue as to what the answer is gonna be.

 

Tomorrow should be fun, regardless. 👍

 

Inside Out 2 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

PREMIERE NIGHT (MID-DAY REPORT) [11:40am - 12:25pm]

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	257	27040	32945	5905	17.92%

 

Total Seats Sold Since Last Night

1120

 

T-0 (Mid-Day) Comps

	%		Sold Since Last Night	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Sonic 2 [11:40-12:05]	181.86		364	3247		0/126	12668/15915	20.40%		3951	149.46%		11.37m
Ltyear [12:00-12:55]	179.54		578	3289		1/196	19452/22741	14.46%		4091	144.34%		9.34m
Min 2 [11:40-12:20]	117.63		1000	5020		0/215	25228/30248	16.60%		6591	89.59%		12.65m
Element										1910	309.16%
Barbie [11:30-12:10]	55.80		1130	10583		3/271	19233/29816	35.49%		12077	48.89%		12.61m
Wonka [11:45-12:10]	390.03		248	1514		0/211	25255/26769	5.66%		1975	298.99%		13.65m
GBFE [11:35-12:10]	335.89		245	1758		0/208	27480/29238	6.01%		2197	268.78%		15.79m
KFP4										2346	251.71%

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Inside Out 2's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     1426/11274  [12.65% sold]
Matinee:    687/3344  [20.54% | 11.63% of all tickets sold]
3D:            380/4240  [8.96% | 6.44% of all tickets sold]
PLF:       2062/10730  [19.22% | 34.92% of all tickets sold]

 

==============

 

Very solid start to the day.  Increasing or staying steady against most comps.  The one major note of caution I have is that the Lightyear comp is stubbornly refusing to cross 10m.  Did take the sample slightly later in the case of Lightyear, but that shouldn't matter that much.  Had to temporarily take off the Elemental and KFP4 comps due to not taking mid-day samples, but left the % of final to get a sense of final targeting.

 

Still, do think we should keep ATP in mind for kids tickets against some of these comps and while this does have pretty darn close to exclusive PLF rights, the PLF percentage locally is actually gonna be lower than Lightyear's ended up being and probably pretty middling when all is said and done.  OTOH, ATP hikes since some of the earlier comps like Sonic 2 should counter that to a degree.

 

When all is said and done, probably gonna split the difference between Lightyear/Elemental and my next set of comps.  Probably very lightly penciling in around 10.5m right now, but with so many of these comps based on films that have their biggest surge in the back half of T-0, it's really hard for me to say more than lightly penciling in.