The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[thajdikt]

25 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

Don't think we're deep enough into presales to rule out 200 tbh, though I do think that one report presenting it as a "conservative prediction" was just ridiculous, I think that was based on Quorum?

Yup

[Porthos]

5 hours ago, abracadabra1998 said:

How do y’all approach a T-1 Hour count when it’s Opening Day and different theaters open at different times and start showings at different times versus previews when they all start at the same time?

 

Coming to this prob too late for you to do anything about it, but this is the other major reason I don't do all-day tracks.  In your position I'd probably try to sample every showtime between now and your "normal" T-1 hour for previews as something of a baseline, perhaps one hour earlier than you normally stop.

 

Say do a "rolling capture" shortly before/after screen time of the ones early in the day, hide those rows on your spreadsheet (so they don't drive you nuts) and then do the rest of the day at more or less your "normal" capture point. 

 

Not ideal, especially because of time commitment, but it's one way to look at it.   

 

Again, advice is prob too late, but that's the least-bad way of doing it if you can get the rolling captures before the main track.

Edited Wednesday at 06:17 PM by Porthos

[keysersoze123]

DM4 is at 235K by 11AM PST. Its going as expected. I would say 425K finish should get it close to 30m OD. 

[VanillaSkies]

20 hours ago, VanillaSkies said:

Its release is just all over the place. Some Monday shows some places, Wednesday EA some places, Thursday previews in Canada (and apparently a few other chains) and then full open Friday. 

To add to the messiness, in Canada Maxxxine appears now in addition to a full preview slate for Thursday night, a lot of places are now also playing the EA showing tonight (Wednesday). Overall it’s selling decently, so maybe that’s why EA was added. Either way, it’s been one heck of a strange roll-out. At this point, I have no idea how much of Friday’s number will be from multiple days of previews.

Edited Wednesday at 07:34 PM by VanillaSkies

[Shawn Robbins]

 

[abracadabra1998]

2 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Coming to this prob too late for you to do anything about it, but this is the other major reason I don't do all-day tracks.  In your position I'd probably try to sample every showtime between now and your "normal" T-1 hour for previews as something of a baseline, perhaps one hour earlier than you normally stop.

 

Say do a "rolling capture" shortly before/after screen time of the ones early in the day, hide those rows on your spreadsheet (so they don't drive you nuts) and then do the rest of the day at more or less your "normal" capture point. 

 

Not ideal, especially because of time commitment, but it's one way to look at it.   

 

Again, advice is prob too late, but that's the least-bad way of doing it if you can get the rolling captures before the main track.

This is really helpful for the future, thank you! Will probably do something like that for future opening days. Ended up punting on today, for the sake of my mental health lol. It’s just a hell of a lot of showtimes compared to usual

[Porthos]

4 minutes ago, abracadabra1998 said:

This is really helpful for the future, thank you! Will probably do something like that for future opening days. Ended up punting on today, for the sake of my mental health lol. It’s just a hell of a lot of showtimes compared to usual

 

 

====

 

FWIW, the system of "capture at start, later do normal track" is what I ended up doing when preview times shifted to 2/3/4/5 pm from the then-standard 4/5/6/7 pm model.  

 

Used to be, I tried to time my track to be a half-an-hour before start times, not including the one-off fan events (which I would sample at start time).   That worked for when we had 6pm and 7pm previews as standard.  When 5pm'ers started to break in, that started to be a bit of a problem, but I could still work with it.  

 

But when the model shifted to 3pm, that's when I had real problems as I wasn't capturing early evening walkups anymore if I started my track at 30 min before 3pm.  And then came the 2pm'ers...

 

After some tinkering with my methodology, I decided on trying to "center" the mid-point of my tracks for 4pm'ers and earlier to around 4:15pm my time, while going for 4:45pm for the few 5pm'ers that we still get while going back to my traditional T-30min or so for the now ultra-rare 6pm and 7pm'ers. 

 

For showtimes that would start before I got to the meat-and-potatoes of my track, I'd sample them right after the start time, and then hide them from my sheet.  This gave me the added benefit of having a slightly shorter "bulk" track later on.    That's what the note about "all showtimes before X:YY pm were sampled at the start of the screening" means when I add it to nearly all of my current tracks.

 

Seems to work for me.  The big thing is to be consistent about whatever methodology one chooses, and then have the patience to see the outliers smooth out combined with the willingness to keep refining/tinkering it if one thinks it can be improved.

[filmlover]

1 hour ago, Shawn Robbins said:

 

Was kind of surprised at first to see It Ends With Us relatively low on both ends of the predicting spectrum, but I guess it is a tougher sell than something like Where the Crawdads Sing (being about domestic abuse vs. a standard romance/murder mystery hybrid).

[AniNate]

Never really understood why people were bullish on It Ends with Us. Blake Lively is hardly a draw and seems just as likely to be another forgettable weepie as a surprise hit.

 

Still a bolder Twisters predict than I'm feeling, does seem to be selling pretty well in Caucasian-majority areas but I think it needs at least some level of urban interest to get those high numbers. I looked at the Cinemark closest to downtown LA and the early access screening has still only sold one ticket.

[filmlover]

10 minutes ago, AniNate said:

Never really understood why people were bullish on It Ends with Us. Blake Lively is hardly a draw and seems just as likely to be another forgettable weepie as a surprise hit.

Crawdads did extremely well despite no star power in front of the camera and lousy reviews (which normally would be a death sentence for that type of movie). Have to imagine that movie's performance played a part in this release date choice (it was originally supposed to be a Valentine's Day release before the strikes), along with other female-centric titles based on bestselling books that did well in the August timeframe (Julie & Julia, Eat Pray Love, The Help, Crazy Rich Asians).

[misterpepp]

It Ends with Us on sale July 17

Borderlands on sale July 24

The Crow on sale Aug 14

 

Alien: Romulus sale date moved up to July 11, but that’s likely late at night. Could be 12:01a est on the 12th.

[Eric the Minion]

Quorum Updates

Despicable Me 4 T-0: 69.89% Awareness, 62% Interest

The Wild Robot T-86: 21.29% Awareness, 38.63% Interest

Flight Risk T-107: 19.09% Awareness, 45.78% Interest

Red One T-135: 21.57% Awareness, 40.69% Interest

Sonic the Hedgehog 3 T-170: 42.72% Awareness, 45.78% Interest

 

MaXXXine T-2: 23.4% Awareness, 38.78% Interest

Final Awareness: 20% chance of 10M

Horror Awareness: 33% chance of 10M

Final Interest: 23% chance of 10M

Horror Interest: 25% chance of 10M

 

Harold and the Purple Crayon T-30: 19.34% Awareness, 31.08% Interest

T-30 Awareness: 14% chance of 10M

Animation/Family Awareness: 33% chance of 10M

T-30 Interest: 33% chance of 10M, 6% chance of 20M

Animation/Family Interest: 60% chance of 10M, 20% chance of 20M

 

Borderlands T-37: 29.87% Awareness, 41.55% Interest

T-30 Awareness: 53% chance of 10M, 17% chance of 20M

Medium Awareness: 77% chance of 10M, 15% chance of 20M

T-30 Interest: 59% chance of 10M, 34% chance of 20M

Medium Interest: 73% chance of 10M, 36% chance of 20M

 

Cuckoo T-37: 13.18% Awareness, 38.19% Interest

T-30 Awareness: 14% chance of 10M

Horror Awareness: 11% chance of 10M

T-30 Interest: 33% chance of 10M

Horror Interest: 33% chance of 10M

 

It Ends with Us T-37: 23.42% Awareness, 41.62% Interest

T-30 Awareness: 53% chance of 10M, 17% chance of 20M

Low Awareness: 38% chance of 10M, 12% chance of 20M

T-30 Interest: 59% chance of 10M, 34% chance of 20M

Low Interest: 27% chance of 10M, 7% chance of 20M

[abracadabra1998]

21 hours ago, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minnesota Opening Day:

 

Maxxxine (T-3):

Day: T-3, T-1	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Friday: 22 theaters	116	341	341	9080	3.76
Wednesday July 3 EA: 17 theaters	19	43	302	1695	17.82
TOTALS:	135	384	643	10775	5.97

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		235	235	68.91
Other chains:		106	106	31.09

 

Friday Comps:

4.87x The Strangers Chapter 1: $5.85 Million

3.31x Abigail: $3.31 Million

6.33x Immaculate: $3.48 Million

3.01x Thanksgiving: $3.01 Million

 

Average: $3.91 Million

 

EA Comps:

0.51x Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes EA: $820k

0.82x Fall Guy EA: $655k

1.09x Challengers EA: $600k

0.82x Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare EA: $495k

0.35x MI7 EA: $705k

 

Average: $655k

 

EA + Friday Comp:

4.28x Talk To Me (w/ EA): $5.33 Million

 

As always, I am comparing Opening Day to previews, which is less than ideal; there are a lot more showtimes, and a better walk-up ratio since it's a Friday. So I expect Friday to be quite a bit better than that average shows.

 

Minnesota Opening Day:

 

Maxxxine (T-2):

Day: T-2, T-1 Hour	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Friday: 22 theaters	116	74	415	9080	4.57
Wednesday July 3 EA: 17 theaters	19	131	433	1695	25.55
TOTALS:	135	205	848	10775	7.87

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		278	43	66.99
Other chains:		137	31	33.01

 

Friday Comps:

4.32x The Strangers Chapter 1: $5.19 Million

3.12x Abigail: $3.12 Million

Immaculate: Missed

2.63x Thanksgiving: $2.63 Million

 

Average: $3.65 Million

 

Not a great update, but EA should be syphoning off some sales until now, so hopefully it will accelerate.

 

EA Comps:

0.87x Fall Guy EA: $695k

1.25x Challengers EA: $690k

0.36x Dune Part 2 EA: $715k

0.41x MI7 EA: $820k

 

Average: $730k

 

REALLY good finish for this, PLF concerns still on my mind but bumping my EA prediction to $600-650k.

[Grand Cine]

55 minutes ago, misterpepp said:

It Ends with Us on sale July 17

Borderlands on sale July 24

The Crow on sale Aug 14

 

Alien: Romulus sale date moved up to July 11, but that’s likely late at night. Could be 12:01a est on the 12th.

Oh Disney is confident about the movie to move up the sale date. Very short presales run for The Crow.

[TalismanRing]

NYC Regal Local Previews (7:15pm)

 

MaXXXine:   128/218 (Early Access/Previews = No shows Thur - starts Friday )

 

Kill:  14/512  (Previews - Starts Thursday)

 

 

Tues Preview (6pm)

 

Sound of Hope: Possum Trot: 36/320  - (No shows Wed - starts on Thur)

 

A truly oddball week of scheduling

 

 

[Speedorito]

2 hours ago, filmlover said:

Crawdads did extremely well despite no star power in front of the camera and lousy reviews (which normally would be a death sentence for that type of movie). Have to imagine that movie's performance played a part in this release date choice (it was originally supposed to be a Valentine's Day release before the strikes), along with other female-centric titles based on bestselling books that did well in the August timeframe (Julie & Julia, Eat Pray Love, The Help, Crazy Rich Asians).

I’d be shocked if It Ends With Us opens lower than double digits (and if Harold and the Purple Crayon opens higher). I know trailer views don’t mean much, but in 24 hours it had higher views than recent stuff like The Eras Tour, Songbirds and Snakes, Barbie, Wicked, and Challengers. Obviously this won’t be the next Barbie, but there are plenty of reasons to be bullish on this.

 

Not sure why they’re relatively low on this film but not low on stuff like Twisters, Borderlands, and Harold and the Purple Crayon of all films.

Edited Thursday at 12:08 AM by Speedorito

[emoviefan]

Shawn really gonna ride and die with that Twisters prediction. Still feels like 50-65  if the reviews are good and the presales pick up and walkups come through esp outside of the Midwest. 

[crazymoviekid]

21 hours ago, crazymoviekid said:

Despicable Me 4

 

Wednesday Comps: 

 

Theater 1: 232 Tickets

Theater 2: 370 Tickets

 

IO2 (Fri): $26.98M

IO2 (Thrs): $39.73M

KFP4: $39.41M

Wish: $18.43M

Paw Patrol 2: $13.75M

Mario: $19.91M

PiB2: $53.52M

Minions 2 (Fri): $18.41M

Minions 2 (Thrs): $17.17M

 

Most comps went up. Believe in the walk-ups. $25M+

Despicable Me 4

 

Final Wednesday Comps: 

 

Theater 1: 429 Tickets

Theater 2: 639 Tickets

 

IO2 (Fri): $24.40M

IO2 (Thrs): $38.04M

KFP4: $30.78M

Wish: $19.06M

Paw Patrol 2: $12.59M

Mario: $21.06M

PiB2: $63.29M

Minions 2 (Fri): $17.34M

Minions 2 (Thrs): $18.25M

 

Great final day. Still in a stellar $25M-$30M range

[Flip]

22 hours ago, Flip said:

Longlegs (T-9)

 

4 showtimes/132 tickets sold (+33)

 

Really strong day. Should pass Watchers (T-0) tomorrow, but if it will go higher it’s dependent on more showtimes being added

Longlegs (T-8)

 

4 showtimes/144 tickets sold (+12)

3.13x Watchers (T-8) [3.13m]

.66x AQP Day One (T-8) [4.51m]

 

Another strong day. Hopefully more shows will be added because otherwise growth will stagnate

[Flip]

23 hours ago, Flip said:

MaXXXine (T-3) Friday Opening Day

 

11 showtimes/84 tix sold

 

1.15x Watchers {thurs} (T-3) [1.15m]

.19x DM4 OD (T-3) [???]
.25x A Quiet Place D1 {thurs} (T-3)[1.73m*]
 

*not sure what the pure previews number was. 
a fair batch of shows just got added so there is a lot of room to grow if the demand is there. 

MaXXXine (T-2) Friday Opening Day

 

11 showtimes/131 tix sold (+47) 

 

1.49x Watchers {thurs} (T-2) [1.49m]

.21x DM4 OD (T-2) [~5.88m]
.31x A Quiet Place D1 {thurs} (T-2)[2.1m]

.097x Inside Out 2 {Friday} (T-2) [4.92m]

 

grew against every comp, so it’s looking promising