The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[keysersoze123]

On 7/12/2024 at 10:11 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Twisters MTC1

Early Shows(7/17) - 12667/68767 267703.19 304 shows +1792

Previews(T-6) - 26228/559818 503665.68 2763 shows +3757

Friday - 23870/779621 445408.74 3827 shows +3928  

 

Day and half of data. May be its amping up a bit but I want to see something more to be optimistic. 

 

Twisters MTC1

Early Shows(7/17) - 13829/68767 291546.29 304 shows +1162

Previews(T-5) - 28803/561900 550984.94  2775 shows +2575

Friday -  26976/783532 501725.00 3843 shows +3106

 

Pace is still anemic. I am thinking thursday previews is targeting 5m ish. Early shows probably another million or so. OW in low 50s with good walkups. Both Thursday/Friday are well below Apes at the moment. Pace for equivalent day is lower as well. At least preview pace is impacted by early shows just a day earlier. But Friday pace being just 60% of Apes is bad. Apes had huge run in the final week and so matching that wont be easy. 

 

[Ryan C]

14 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Twisters MTC1

Early Shows(7/17) - 13829/68767 291546.29 304 shows +1162

Previews(T-5) - 28803/561900 550984.94  2775 shows +2575

Friday -  26976/783532 501725.00 3843 shows +3106

 

Pace is still anemic. I am thinking thursday previews is targeting 5m ish. Early shows probably another million or so. OW in low 50s with good walkups. Both Thursday/Friday are well below Apes at the moment. Pace for equivalent day is lower as well. At least preview pace is impacted by early shows just a day earlier. But Friday pace being just 60% of Apes is bad. Apes had huge run in the final week and so matching that wont be easy. 

 

 

To be fair, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes was part of a franchise, so pre-sales were definitely gonna be stronger for that than something like Twisters. At this point though, we really got to hope that walk-ups are amazing. I can see it barely hitting $50M on opening weekend, but I do not see how it does anymore than that judging my these pre-sales (I'd be stunned if it opens higher than the string of $50M openers we got this year)

 

Also, the worst part is that if this movie didn't cost a reported $200M (though all that money is on the screen), a $50M opening wouldn't be that bad. It's just compared to that high budget and next weekend that's gonna be constantly compared to Barbenheimer that will probably result in this movie being a disappointment. 

 

Let's all hope that we can be pleasantly surprised next weekend. 

[emoviefan]

I still think Walkups can come through and get Twisters over 50 fairly easily. But if not than that's way  things go. The interest was just not there if that is the case. I am really looking forward to it and hope it''s good.

[Porthos]

On 7/13/2024 at 2:44 AM, Porthos said:

 

Deadpool & Wolverine Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-13 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	287	29960	37168	7208	19.39%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

149

 

T-13 Comp

	%		Sold T-13	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
MoM	67.90		216	10615		0/351	31821/42436	25.01%		21117	34.13%		24.45m
L&T	105.78		265	6814		0/228	24786/31600	21.56%		16962	42.49%		30.68m
BP2	99.42		190	7250		2/296	29904/37154	19.51%		16800	42.90%		27.84m
AM3	147.40		123	4890		0/238	27904/32794	14.91%		10475	68.81%		25.80m
GOTG3	196.03		83	3677		0/203	25377/29054	12.66%		10750	67.05%		34.31m
Bats	170.04		152	4239		0/285	31225/35464	11.95%		11757	61.31%		36.73m
Ava 2	244.59		148	2947		0/145	18537/21484	13.72%		8986	80.21%		41.58m
Dune 2	308.03		125	2340		0/174	22847/25187	9.29%		6001	120.11%		36.96m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Deadpool & Wolverine's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:      1676/13029  [12.86% sold]
Matinee:     470/4466  [10.52% | 6.52% of all tickets sold]
3D:              844/7745  [10.90% | 11.71% of all tickets sold]
PLF:         3399/11729  [28.98% | 47.16% of all tickets sold]
———    
DP3 sold     141 seats today at same sources of tracking I had for Captain Marvel
DP3 sold     143 seats today at the same sources of tracking I had for TROS
———    

***EXTREMELY AND EXCEEDINGLY UNOFFICIAL COMP***    
DP3 = 1.62995x Captain Marvel at the same sources of tracking at T-13 [39.71m] [ATP adj'ed by 118%]   

 

Deadpool & Wolverine Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-12 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	287	29793	37168	7375	19.84%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

167

 

T-12 Comp

	%		Sold T-12	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
MoM	68.06		221	10836		0/351	31600/42436	25.53%		21117	34.92%		24.50m
L&T	105.63		168	6982		0/228	24618/31600	22.09%		16962	43.48%		30.63m
BP2	99.45		166	7416		2/296	29738/37154	19.96%		16800	43.90%		27.85m
AM3	147.06		125	5015		0/238	27779/32794	15.29%		10475	70.41%		25.74m
GOTG3	195.52		95	3772		0/203	25282/29054	12.98%		10750	68.60%		34.22m
Bats	170.01		99	4338		0/285	31126/35464	12.23%		11757	62.73%		36.72m
Ava 2	235.32		187	3134		0/145	18350/21484	14.59%		8986	82.07%		40.00m
Dune 2	303.50		90	2430		0/174	22757/25187	9.65%		6001	122.90%		36.42m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Deadpool & Wolverine's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     1705/13029  [13.09% sold]
Matinee:    479/4466  [10.73% | 6.49% of all tickets sold]
3D:             863/7745  [11.14% | 11.70% of all tickets sold]
PLF:        3453/11729  [29.44% | 46.82% of all tickets sold]
———    
DP3 sold     161 seats today at same sources of tracking I had for Captain Marvel
DP3 sold     163 seats today at the same sources of tracking I had for TROS
———

***EXTREMELY AND EXCEEDINGLY UNOFFICIAL COMP***    
DP3 = 1.63352x Captain Marvel at the same sources of tracking at T-12 [39.79m] [ATP adj'ed by 118%]   

[vafrow]

21 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Twisters, T-6 Thursday previews and Wednesday EA, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 34

New Sales : 2

Growth: 6%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 21

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 1.6

Ticket premium in effect: Y

 

EA sales: 84

 

Tickets by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 1/7

Early Evening: 33/7

Late Evening: 0/7

 

Tickets by Format

Regular: 0/3

Dolby: 20/8

IMAX: 8/6

4DX: 6/3

 

Previews Comps

1.478x Fall Guy for $4.7M

0.410x KOTPOTA for $2.0M

0.557x Bad Boys Ride or Die for $3.3M

0.149x HG: BoSS for $0.9M

0.324x Furiosa for $1.1M

 

Comps with EA rolled into previews 

1.422x KOTPOTA for $7.1M

1.934x Bad Boys Ride or Die for $9.7M

0.518x HG: BoSS for $2.6M

1.124x Furiosa for $5.6M

 

EA Comp

1.527x Fall Guy for $1.2M

 

Not a particularly strong day. Previews weren't great. EA still shows growth.

 

In the final week, the only thing I feel I can definitively say is that it will outperform The Fall Guy. With a similar EA strategy, it's outperforming it consistently by 50% for both EA and previews. And Goslings Canadian connection makes me feel that FG had a better chance at outperforming Twisters, which seems middle America focused.

 

But it's hard to gleam much from the rest of the comps. We'll see what final week looks like.

 

Twisters, T-5 Thursday previews and Wednesday EA, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 40

New Sales : 6

Growth: 18%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 21

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 1.9

Ticket premium in effect: Y

 

EA sales: 90

 

Tickets by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 3/7

Early Evening: 37/7

Late Evening: 0/7

 

Tickets by Format

Regular: 0/3

Dolby: 22/8

IMAX: 10/6

4DX: 8/3

 

Previews Comps

1.600x Fall Guy for $5.0M

0.400x KOTPOTA for $2.0M

0.615x Bad Boys Ride or Die for $3.6M

0.161x HG: BoSS for $0.9M

0.360x Furiosa for $1.3M

 

EA Comp

1.667x Fall Guy for $1.3M

 

I decided to drop posting comps with EA rolled into the totals. I figure that is a harder leap to make as we get closer. With EA still doubling previews, it still distorting things, but not to that extent, IMO.

 

I still say Fall Guy is the best comp, which is pointing to $6.3M for previews plus EA.

 

[TheFlatLannister]

8 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Twisters MTC1

Early Shows(7/17) - 13829/68767 291546.29 304 shows +1162

Previews(T-5) - 28803/561900 550984.94  2775 shows +2575

Friday -  26976/783532 501725.00 3843 shows +3106

 

Pace is still anemic. I am thinking thursday previews is targeting 5m ish. Early shows probably another million or so. OW in low 50s with good walkups. Both Thursday/Friday are well below Apes at the moment. Pace for equivalent day is lower as well. At least preview pace is impacted by early shows just a day earlier. But Friday pace being just 60% of Apes is bad. Apes had huge run in the final week and so matching that wont be easy. 

 

Yikes. I checked Florida yesterday and didn’t want to post to avoid any panic but yikes. 

[keysersoze123]

9 hours ago, Ryan C said:

 

To be fair, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes was part of a franchise, so pre-sales were definitely gonna be stronger for that than something like Twisters. At this point though, we really got to hope that walk-ups are amazing. I can see it barely hitting $50M on opening weekend, but I do not see how it does anymore than that judging my these pre-sales (I'd be stunned if it opens higher than the string of $50M openers we got this year)

 

Also, the worst part is that if this movie didn't cost a reported $200M (though all that money is on the screen), a $50M opening wouldn't be that bad. It's just compared to that high budget and next weekend that's gonna be constantly compared to Barbenheimer that will probably result in this movie being a disappointment. 

 

Let's all hope that we can be pleasantly surprised next weekend. 

Apes had amazing final week. It was heavily driven by late presales and terrific walkups during its OW. For Twisters to do better it has to  behave like a family movie(IO2 etc). That aint easy and unprecedented. Most walkup heavy movies are ones that have bias towards hispanic/black audience. I am not convinced Twisters will tap into them heavily. 

[Grand Cine]

9 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Apes had amazing final week. It was heavily driven by late presales and terrific walkups during its OW. For Twisters to do better it has to  behave like a family movie(IO2 etc). That aint easy and unprecedented. Most walkup heavy movies are ones that have bias towards hispanic/black audience. I am not convinced Twisters will tap into them heavily. 

I think 45M is the target like Ghostbusters this year or Uncharted two years ago

Edited July 14 by Grand Cine

[John Marston]

can't see why Twisters won't have good walk ups. Should reach the 50m range. Which would normally be fine if it weren't facing an 800 pound Juggernaut the next weekend

[emoviefan]

4 minutes ago, Grand Cine said:

I think 45M is the target like Ghostbusters this year or Uncharted two years ago

But the reviews are much better than those so it should open better due to WOM driven walkups but if not than just like something like the Fall Guy, which will it do much better than based on tracking,  the interest was not there to do better. 

[Cmasterclay]

I think Twisters does well enough in rural areas and with walkups to get 50, but I don't see how BOP and Shawn possibly have data indicating it can get much higher than that. I'd love to understand why!

[emoviefan]

2 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

I think Twisters does well enough in rural areas and with walkups to get 50, but I don't see how BOP and Shawn possibly have data indicating it can get much higher than that. I'd love to understand why!

Yeah really do not see what they are seeing other than wishful thinking or feeling that the Midwest excitement will spread this final week.

[Cmasterclay]

12 minutes ago, emoviefan said:

Yeah really do not see what they are seeing other than wishful thinking or feeling that the Midwest excitement will spread this final week.

They may have sales or tracking numbers we don't have access to. Maybe MTC1 underindexes smaller or midwestern theaters?

[TheFlatLannister]

On 7/12/2024 at 5:40 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

TWISTERS

 

Thursday 

 

T-6

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
557	3228	110297	2.9%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

179

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

T-6

(1.206x) of Apes $6.03M

(2.135x) of Fall Guy $4.91M

(1.120x) of Furiosa $4.20M
Comps AVG: $5.05M 

 

No noticeable bump from the Bogo Xfinity deal in Florida. Actually, pace is depressed compared to past two days. 

FLORIDA 

 

TWISTERS

 

Thursday 

 

T-4

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
557	3708	110297	3.4%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

270

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

T-4

(1.232x) of Apes $6.16M

(2.158x) of Fall Guy $4.96M

(1.227x) of Furiosa $4.29M
Comps AVG: $5.14M 

 

Pace improved just a bit, but still not anything that will move the needle. Still looks like ~$5M to me

[Alexander]

50M OW would probably mean DOM > OS finish with that weak overseas opening. Anyway, looking at our local theater in my country: almost 1200 tickets available and 0 sold lol.

[Relevation]

16 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Twisters MTC1

Early Shows(7/17) - 13829/68767 291546.29 304 shows +1162

Previews(T-5) - 28803/561900 550984.94  2775 shows +2575

Friday -  26976/783532 501725.00 3843 shows +3106

 

Pace is still anemic. I am thinking thursday previews is targeting 5m ish. Early shows probably another million or so. OW in low 50s with good walkups. Both Thursday/Friday are well below Apes at the moment. Pace for equivalent day is lower as well. At least preview pace is impacted by early shows just a day earlier. But Friday pace being just 60% of Apes is bad. Apes had huge run in the final week and so matching that wont be easy. 

 

Gonna instill a healthy dose of pessimism in the thread and say I don’t think this is good enough for much more than $40M, let alone $50M.

 

Nope did $6.4M in just THU previews in this same frame two years ago and was only able to turn that into a $44M opening, while Twisters is here doing ~$6M across both EA and THU, which should conventionally mean Twisters has a more frontloaded preview+EA:weekend IM than Nope did. 
 

Nope had a 6.875x IM, so let’s say Twisters skews just a bit lower (since it doesn’t have quite the same Peele level fanbase) with 6.6-6.7x across both EA and THU combined. That would yield right around a $39.6-40.2M OW. I don’t see it getting much higher than the 7.68x IM that A Quiet Place: Day One notched, because that was only a pure THU to weekend IM, and that would imply a high end scenario off $6M previews of ~$46M.

 

And I also don’t think it’s a sure thing that it grows to the level needed for $6M previews either. Like, if it’s doing around 60% of what Apes did for FRI, that leaves significant room for a walkup underperformance compared to Apes (which had really great walkups) that would absolutely doom it to probably like a mid-high-30s OW. And since the demos on this are gonna be predominantly white, I think the possibility of that happening should not be discounted.

 

I think a $50Mish OW could very much still happen if walkups do come through, but I definitely don’t think that’s a sure thing and I personally lean much more to predicting an OW around like $40M.

[Poseidon]

Australias opening doesn't exactly scream breakout for Twisters either, so at this point, i'dreally be surprised by the movie reaching the 75m-predictions.

[abracadabra1998]

On 7/7/2024 at 1:29 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

Twisters (T-11):

Day: T-11, T-10	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 23 theaters	139	43	298	22960	1.3
Wednesday July 17 EA: 16 theaters	20	38	280	4204	6.66
TOTALS:	159	81	578	27164	2.13

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		227	26	76.17
MTC1:		189	18	63.42
Other chains:		109	25	36.58

 

Thursday Comps:

Quiet Place Day One: Missed

1.55x Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes: $7.76 Million

1.96x Fall Guy: $4.61 Million

0.53x Godzilla x Kong: $4.83 Million (17 theaters)

0.89x Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom: $4 Million (17 theaters)

 

Average: $5.3 Million

 

EA Comps:

1.05x Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes: $1.68 Million

1.7x Fall Guy: $1.36 Million

TMNT:  Missed

0.58x MI7: $1.16 Million

 

Average: $1.4 Million

 

Right in line with katniss's numbers if you add up the Thursday and EA average!

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

Twisters (T-4):

Day: T-4, T-3	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 24 theaters	148	530	828	25486	3.25
Wednesday July 17 EA: 17 theaters	21	365	645	4624	13.95
TOTALS:	169	895	1473	30110	4.89

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		562	335	67.87
MTC1:		445	256	53.74
Other chains:		383	274	46.26

 

Thursday Comps:

1.94x Quiet Place Day One: $13.22 Million

1.82x Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes: $9.1 Million

3.25x Fall Guy: $7.63 Million

0.69x Godzilla x Kong: $6.35 Million (17 theaters)

1.6x Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom: $7.22 Million (17 theaters)

0.58x Indy 5: $4.21 Million (17 theaters)

 

Average: $7.96 Million

 

EA Comps:

1.42x Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes: $2.27 Million

2.26x Fall Guy: $1.8 Million

0.9x MI7: $1.8 Million

 

Average: $1.96 Million

 

I mean, WOW. People have been down on this on here but these numbers here are stellar. Looking forward to @jeffthehat's numbers as well, maybe we'll see more strength in the Midwest. This could always be an outlier, but perhaps not!

[AniNate]

EA does still seem to be chugging along here. Valley View's screening is now over 120, Canton now over 170 with an additional 12 for the newly added 10pm showing.

[Flip]

On 7/11/2024 at 10:52 PM, Flip said:

Twisters Previews (T-7)

 

15 showtimes/98 tix sold (+9)

 

.75x Bad Boys 4 (T-7) [4.43m]

 

A little under what I expected, especially considering reviews dropped today, but maybe that effect will be felt tomorrow.

Twisters Previews (T-4)

 

15 showtimes/146 tix sold (+48)

 

.82x Bad Boys 4 (T-4) [4.84]
 

good pace (sold 30 tickets on just today)