The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Jayhawk the Hutt]

400m WW would be fine with a 155m budget, especially if it is DOM heavy. Who knows if it will make it there though.

[M37]

Also, looking at particularly numbers for Minn/St Paul and Jax/Pho/Ral, does appear Twisters is going to have a fairly strong middle market skew, draw in not necessarily walk-ups in the traditional younger and diverse audience sense, but definitely a more casual crowd. Think Indy (and maybe TGM) will prove to be best comp(s), though probably doesn’t skew quite as old as either of those 

[AniNate]

Internationally its openings were about on par with Creed 3 in comparable territories. Which yeah... no bueno. Better hope soccer was a factor last week.

[PenguinHyphy]

With the current overseas numbers as an indicator, it is going to have to gross Dune 2 numbers in America to hit $400,000,000+ globally 

[AniNate]

It does seem to be getting a theatrical release in more markets in general than Creed 3 did, though not sure if that's just a missing data issue.

[jeffthehat]

On 7/16/2024 at 12:59 PM, jeffthehat said:

Indiana

Twisters T-2

Sales	Seats	Shows
1489	31820	186

TC=28, pulled 11AM EST

Comps

0.93x Ghostbusters FE T-2 = $4.4m

0.78x Godzilla x Kong NE T-2 = $7.8m

1.70x Bad Boys 4 T-2 = $9.5m

 

AVG = $7.23m

 

Not sure what to do with comps. Ghostbusters FE overperformed a lot here, so it's a decent weight. Don't have anything else showing <$7m besides frontloaded stuff like Dune 2 and Furiosa. I'd guess it's just overperforming in the midwest though. 

Indiana

Twisters T-1

Sales	Seats	Shows
2103	39510	246

TC=28, pulled 11AM EST

Comps

1.16x Ghostbusters FE T-1 = $5.5m

0.90x Godzilla x Kong NE T-1 = $9.0m

1.81x Bad Boys 4 T-1 = $10.1m

 

AVG = $8.20m

 

Ghostbusters comp is probably closer to where it's heading than the average, but we'll see. Surprised to see it growing so much against GxK and Bad Boys 

Edited July 17 by jeffthehat

[ringedmortality]

4 minutes ago, jeffthehat said:

AVG = $8.20m

 

[AniNate]

Baldwin Hills EA now up to 18. Progress.

[AnthonyJPHer]

It’s very ironic I didn’t track Twisters. I’m literally in the perfect place for it (Iowa) and smack dab in the middle of where the tornados usually form. For all I know it’s massively over indexing but I’ll never know. 

[el sid]

Twisters, counted today for tomorrow, had 1.592 solid tickets. 

Up solid 32% since Monday. 

 

Comps (all 5 films counted on Wednesday for Thursday): Planet of the Apes (5M from previews) had 1.381 sold tickets = 5.75M. 

The Fall Guy (2.35M) had 865 = 4.3M. 

Uncharted (3.7M) had 1.062 = 5.55M. 

BT (4.6M) had 1.238 = 6.15M. 

And Civil War (2.6M) had 1.130 sold tickets = 3.65M. 

 

GxK (9.2M) finally (= on Thursday for Thursday) had 2.015 sold tickets = 7.25M for Twisters + 1 day left. But of course only if it has the same very good walk-ups. 

 

Average (from all six films): 5.45M (as always without EA shows). 

[keysersoze123]

7 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Twisters	T-1	Jax	5	93	92	401	13,012	3.08%
		Phx	7	73	102	354	12,402	2.85%
		Ral	8	81	103	413	9,841	4.20%
	Total		20	247	297	1,168	35,255	3.31%
Twisters (EA)	T-0	Jax	5	13	106	558	2,628	21.23%
		Phx	1	2	30	92	618	14.89%
		Ral	2	2	24	91	412	22.09%
	Total		8	17	160	741	3,658	20.26%

 

Twisters (EA) T-0 adjusted comps

 - Top Gun 2 (EA Total) - .396x (1.87m)

 - Kingdom of Apes (EA) - 1.68x (2.69m)

 - Fall Guy (EA) - 4.19x (3.35m)

 - Barbie (EA) - 1.11x (1.27m)

 - M:I 7 (EA) - .834x (1m)

 - Transformers (EA) - .82x (1.45m)

 - Bullet Train (EA) - 2.87x (3.82m)

 - Creed III (EA) - 1.91x (1.91m)

 - Batman (EA Total)

 

Still on the 2m+ EA train and I wouldn't be surprised with 2.5m

 

Twisters (Thu) T-1 adjusted comps

 - Fall Guy (Thu) - 3.616x (8.5m)

 - Godzilla x Kong - .592x (5.34m)

 - Kingdom of Apes (Thu) - 1.363x (6.81m)

 - No Time to Die (Thu) - missed

 - Ghostbusters FE - 1.042x (4.58m)

 - M:I 7 (Thu) - .768x (4.91m)

 - Top Gun 2 (Thu) - .207x (3.11m)

 - Furiosa - missed

 - Bad Boys (Thu) - missed

 - Bullet Train (Thu) - 1.576x (5.406m)

 

Size adjusted comps - 5.36m

 

Jumped 34% yesterday, only behind Bullet Train of the comps.  Hoping for at least +50% today which should put it around 5.5m

Did you capture how many early shows are there for Twisters across all EA?

[DAJK]

What I’ve been noticing about Twisters is that tonight seems pretty strong across every market I’m looking at (just scanning different theaters across Canada: BC, Alberta, Saskatchewan, Ontario), tomorrow is looking significantly weaker, but Friday and Saturday pick up big time. 
 

Other than that, the prairies are simply stronger than coastal markets overall. Same trends, just bigger numbers. 
 

Depending how much EA boosts Thursday’s #, I’m expecting this to have a pretty strong multiplier throughout the weekend.

[AniNate]

Some dude on indiewire insisting $60 mil+

 

https://www.indiewire.com/news/box-office/twisters-box-office-film-should-open-60-million-higher-1235026671/

[YM!]

Southeast Wisconsin Tracking Update - 7/17/2024 - North Shore, Menominee Falls, Brookfield Square and Majestic Cinema 

 

Twisters (T-1):

Tickets Sold: 22/28/13/101 - 164 

- 112.5% of Furiosa’s T-2 ($3.9m)

- 82.4% of Bad Boys: Ride or Die’s T-2 ($4.84m)

 

Twisters Early Access: (T-12 hours)

Tickets Sold: 4/31/107/26 - 168

- 107% of Bad Boys: Ride or Die’s EA T-1: (???)

 

Sorry for lack of updates, been busy with work this month and am out of town, but was able to do a quick update. Not going to lie, was expecting more from this but not caring for the comparisons I see. However think it should be pretty walkup friendly so $50-55m OW is my guess.

[katnisscinnaplex]

9 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Twisters (EA)	T-0	Jax	5	13	106	558	2,628	21.23%
		Phx	1	2	30	92	618	14.89%
		Ral	2	2	24	91	412	22.09%
	Total		8	17	160	741	3,658	20.26%

 

Twisters (EA) T-0 adjusted comps

 - Top Gun 2 (EA Total) - .396x (1.87m)

 - Kingdom of Apes (EA) - 1.68x (2.69m)

 - Fall Guy (EA) - 4.19x (3.35m)

 - Barbie (EA) - 1.11x (1.27m)

 - M:I 7 (EA) - .834x (1m)

 - Transformers (EA) - .82x (1.45m)

 - Bullet Train (EA) - 2.87x (3.82m)

 - Creed III (EA) - 1.91x (1.91m)

 - Batman (EA Total)

 

Still on the 2m+ EA train and I wouldn't be surprised with 2.5m

 

I don't usually do a 1 hr pull for EA, but why not.

 

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Twisters (EA)	1-Hr	Jax	5	13	252	810	2,628	30.82%
		Phx	1	2	39	131	618	21.20%
		Ral	2	2	22	113	412	27.43%
	Total		8	17	313	1,054	3,658	28.81%

 

The only comp I have is Bullet Train EA at 4.085x (5.44m).   This has been really impressive and hopefully previews follow suit tomorrow.

 

 

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

Did you capture how many early shows are there for Twisters across all EA?

 

Just took a look.  I've got 1,500+ in my sample at 1,034 theaters.

 

MTC1 - 431 (257 TC)

MTC2 - 294 (169)

MTC3 - 308 (178)

[Ryan C]

7 minutes ago, AniNate said:

Some dude on indiewire insisting $60 mil+

 

https://www.indiewire.com/news/box-office/twisters-box-office-film-should-open-60-million-higher-1235026671/

 

As much as I read IndieWire, I think they can be way too negative and pessimistic sometimes. Though in this case, I feel the same way about this as I do about Quorum's Deadpool and Wolverine projections. Even if it could happen, it's a bad idea to say that Twisters should open to those numbers and they'll probably be in a doom and gloom attitude if it doesn't. 

[AniNate]

Just as well, there's gonna be dooming if it doesn't get there regardless

[keysersoze123]

17 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

I don't usually do a 1 hr pull for EA, but why not.

 

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Twisters (EA)	1-Hr	Jax	5	13	252	810	2,628	30.82%
		Phx	1	2	39	131	618	21.20%
		Ral	2	2	22	113	412	27.43%
	Total		8	17	313	1,054	3,658	28.81%

 

The only comp I have is Bullet Train EA at 4.085x (5.44m).   This has been really impressive and hopefully previews follow suit tomorrow.

 

 

 

Just took a look.  I've got 1,500+ in my sample at 1,034 theaters.

 

MTC1 - 431 (257 TC)

MTC2 - 294 (169)

MTC3 - 308 (178)

Thank you. I almost have everything for MTC1 but I am missing few MTC2 ones. Anyway it should not matter. More than 1000 between 3 big ones means it should have a good gross today. 

[vafrow]

14 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Twisters, T-2 Thursday previews and Wednesday EA, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 123

New Sales : 31

Growth: 34%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 21

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 5.9

Ticket premium in effect: Y

 

EA sales: 214 (50% jump)

 

Tickets by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 12/7

Early Evening: 103/7

Late Evening: 8/7

 

Tickets by Format

Regular: 0/3

Dolby: 57/8

IMAX: 43/6

4DX: 23/3

 

Previews Comps

2.016x Fall Guy for $4.7M

0.732x KOTPOTA for $3.7M

0.804x Bad Boys Ride or Die for $4.7M

0.337x HG: BoSS for $1.9M

0.641x Furiosa for $2.2M

 

EA Comp

3.292x Fall Guy for $2.6M

 

Growth for previews slipped a bit, but it still grew against comps pretty well. 

 

But it's the 50% growth in EA sales that's the most impressive. I stopped combining EA and previews for comp comparisons, but those numbers ere spitting out comps around $10M.

 

My sample over indexes on EA locations, but it feels like an EA number of at least $2M is possible. When comparing to Fall Guy, it's pointing higher.

 

I also think we'll see a big jump on previews tomorrow when EA isn't there to consume demand. 

 

EA walk ups have performed well. Started at 214, ended at 409. Just under a doubling.

 

Fall Guy did managed to double, but being a third less, it's not as impressive, and points to the demand here. A lot of the showings are fairly full.

 

What isn't full is the IMAX Q&A showings. They remain very difficult to find jn the app, which is likely a big cause of thd issue. Also, it's a later start at 8:00. It could sell a bit more but I'm skeptical.

 

The two showings have sold 25 and 15 tickets. Neither gets it today above 10% capacity. This seems like a failed gimmick, at least around here. I'm curious if others are seeing similar. I wonder if the app structure is killing it or if the concept itself is just not appealing.

[AniNate]

I am pretty sure they would've sold more if they were lumped into all showings. Cinemark's website is relatively user friendly but it's exceptionally confusing to locate "special screenings" on the Regal and AMC sites

 

 

Edited July 17 by AniNate