The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[vafrow]

On 7/26/2024 at 7:08 AM, vafrow said:

 

Borderlands, D2, T-14, Western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 5

New Sales: 0

Growth: 0%

Theatres: 5

Showtimes: 19

Tickets per Showtime: 0.3

Chains tracked: MTC4

Ticket Premium in effect: N

 

Sales by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 2/5

Early Evening: 3/7

Late Evening: 0/7

 

Sales by Format

Regular: 3/15

VIP: 2/4

 

D1 Comps 

0.294x BB:RoD for $1.7M

0.385x KOTPOTA for $1.9M

0.263x Furiosa for $1.2M

0.074x GxK for $0.7M

 

Average: $1.4M

 

Well, Day 2 wasn't good for this. And with a short sales cycle, it's not going to get better when I switch to T minus comps on the weekend.

 

Borderlands, T-6, Western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 18

New Sales: 13

Growth: 260%

Theatres: 5

Showtimes: 17

Tickets per Showtime: 1.1

Chains tracked: MTC4

Ticket Premium in effect: N

 

Sales by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 5/5

Early Evening: 11/6

Late Evening: 2/6

 

Sales by Format

Regular: 9/15

VIP: 9/2

 

Comps 

0.500x BB:RoD for $2.9M

0.621x KOTPOTA for $3.1M

0.375x GB:FE for $1.8M

0.080x GxK for $0.8M

 

Average: $2.1M

 

I guess I haven't updated this for a while. It's a hard title to muster any excitement for as a tracker, and looks like that applies for audiences as well.

 

This actually lost two showings this past week. 

[Caption Action 3]

This weekend, decided to do something different. With Deadpool & Wolverine, Despicable Me 4, and Inside Out all still in theaters, how could we compare the open caption sales for all three? The only way was to look at the few Cinemark theaters nationally that offer regular open caption screenings. And of those, only the ones that had open caption screenings on Saturday for all three movies. So that limited us to:

 

Cinemark Huntington Mall (Barboursville, WV)

Cinemark Lincoln Square (Bellevue, WA)

Cinemark Century Boulder (Boulder, CO)

Cinemark Tinseltown Colorado Springs (Colorado Springs, CO)

Cinemark Fairfax Corner (Fairfax, VA)

Cinemark Century Federal Way (Federal Way, WA)

Cinemark Fort Collins (Fort Collins, CO)

Cinemark Century 16 Bel Mar (Lakewood, CO)

Cinemark Tinseltown Pueblo (Pueblo, CO)

 

The results were much better than expected. With both Inside Out 2 and DM 4 being in theaters several weeks already - 31 days for DM4 and 50 days for IO 2 - we expected at least some zero solds. There were none! AND the number of non-OC screenings that people had the choice of, again make it clear at least some people are choosing open captions!

Deadpool and Wolverine – Cinemark OC Saturday
# of Tickets/# of Markets	276	9		30.67
# of tickets/#of theaters	276	9		30.67
#of tickets/#of screen times	276	9		30.67
# of zero sold/#of screen times	0	9		0.00
DM 4 – Cinemark OC Saturday
# of Tickets/# of Markets	169		9	21.67
# of tickets/#of theaters	169		9	21.67
#of tickets/#of screen times	169		9	21.67
# of zero sold/#of screen times	9	9		0.00
Inside Out 2 – Cinemark OC Saturday
# of Tickets/# of Markets # of tickets/#of theaters #of tickets/#of screen times # of zero sold/#of screen times	181 181 181 0	9 9 9 9		13.89 13.89 13.89 0.00

 

Actual data:

 

Movie	Market	Theater	Time	# of OC seats sold	Zero Sold	# of non-OC screenings
	Barboursville (WV)
Inside Out 2		Cinemark Huntington Mall	6:05 PM	14		4 non OC
DM 4		Cinemark Huntington Mall	4:45 PM	2		4 non OC
D&W		Cinemark Huntington Mall	2:25 PM	3		20 non OC
	Bellevue (WA)
Inside Out 2		Cinemark Lincoln Square	2:25 PM	13		5 non OC
DM 4		Cinemark Lincoln Square	2:10 PM	14		6 non OC
D&W		Cinemark Lincoln Square	5:00 PM	53		21 non OC
	Boulder (CO)
Inside Out 2		Cinemark Century Boulder	2:00 PM	26		5 non OC
DM 4		Cinemark Century Boulder	2:50 PM	25		5 non OC
D&W		Cinemark Century Boulder	2:10 PM	13		28 non OC
	Colorado Springs (CO)
Inside Out 2		Cinemark Tinseltown Colorado Springs	2:10 PM	30		6 non OC
DM 4		Cinemark Tinseltown Colorado Springs	2:20 PM	53		5 non OC
D&W		Cinemark Tinseltown Colorado Springs	4:35 PM	54		43 non OC
	Fairfax (VA)
Inside Out 2		Cinemark Fairfax Corner	2:50 PM	41		5 non OC
DM 4		Cinemark Fairfax Corner	3:05 PM	24		5 non OC
D&W		Cinemark Fairfax Corner	3:35 PM	16		28 non OC
	Federal Way (WA)
Inside Out 2		Cinemark Century Federal Way	4:40 PM	2		5 non OC
DM 4		Cinemark Century Federal Way	2:35 PM	7		6 non OC
D&W		Cinemark Century Federal Way	4:50 PM	56		31 non OC
	Fort Collins (CO)
Inside Out 2		Cinemark Fort Collins	5:05 PM	4		5 non OC
DM 4		Cinemark Fort Collins	2:45 PM	8		6 non OC
D&W		Cinemark Fort Collins	4:35 PM	11		34 non OC
	Lakewood (CO)
Inside Out 2		Cinemark Century 16 Bel Mar	4:55 PM	29		5 non OC
DM 4		Cinemark Century 16 Bel Mar	2:20 PM	23		5 non OC
D&W		Cinemark Century 16 Bel Mar	3:20 PM	29		31 non OC
	Pueblo (CO)
Inside Out 2		Cinemark Tinseltown Pueblo	2:30 PM	22		5 non OC
DM 4		Cinemark Tinseltown Pueblo	2:20 PM	13		5 non OC
D&W		Cinemark Tinseltown Pueblo	3:20 PM	41		26 non OC

Edited August 4 by Caption Action 3
Manually fixed the tables.

[Flip]

22 hours ago, Flip said:

It Ends With Us Previews (T-6)

 

13 showtimes/210 tickets sold (+31)

 

1.17x Trap Previews (T-6) [2.57m]

Missed AQP D1 Previews (T-6) []

1.57x Bad Boys 4 (T-6) [9.18m]
4.65x The Watchers (T-6) [4.65m]

 

Bad boys comp will come down starting at T-2

It Ends With Us Previews (T-5)

 

13 showtimes/241 tickets sold (+31)

 

1.26x Trap Previews (T-5) [2.77m]

Missed AQP D1 Previews (T-5) []

Missed Bad Boys 4 (T-5) []
Missed The Watchers (T-5) []

[Flip]

On 7/26/2024 at 10:55 PM, Flip said:

Borderlands Previews (T-13)

 

3 showtimes/ 10 tix sold

 

 

abysmal. Even comped against IO2 (which underindexed a lot for me) previews still would be under $1M

Borderlands Previews (T-5) 8 days of sales

 

6 showtimes/43 tix sold (+33)

 

still very bad but it will likely cross 1.5m previews

[keysersoze123]

23 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

It ends with us MTC2

Early shows - 10154/27021 134685.98 256 shows +1919

Previews(T-6) - 23882/156505 304997.74 1467 shows +3541

 

Another strong day here as well. 

It ends with us MTC2

Early Shows - 11618/28342 154585.18 263 shows +1464

Previews(T-5) - 26366/164192 336241.71 1529 shows  +2484

 

Weaker day on saturday. MTC1 will be updated in the morning. 

[Ryan C]

Borderlands

 

T-5

 

Thursday: 568 Seats Sold

 

Taken as of 2:30AM Eastern Time

 

IMPORTANT NOTES: We'll see how much this acclerates in the final week, but I'll just say this. If this didn't get a PLF boost, then an opening weekend below $10M would be all but assured. 

 

I genuinely feel sorry for all the theater owners who wish to keep playing Deadpool and Wolverine on all those PLF screens, but have to make room for a movie that (unless a literal miracle happens) will barely hit or miss out on double digits. 

[Ryan C]

Cuckoo 

 

T-5

 

Thursday: 298 Seats Sold

 

Taken as of 2:45AM Eastern Time

 

IMPORTANT NOTES: Decided to see how this one is doing and despite only showing in six of the usual 14 locations that I usually track so far (hopefully more theaters will play it), it has sold about half of what Borderlands did at this point and without either a significant PLF boost or showings that start as early as 3:00.

 

This won't be the next Longlegs for NEON, but I sense a mini-breakout with this one. 

Edited August 4 by Ryan C

[emoviefan]

20 minutes ago, Ryan C said:

Borderlands

 

T-5

 

Thursday: 568 Seats Sold

 

Taken as of 2:30AM Eastern Time

 

IMPORTANT NOTES: We'll see how much this acclerates in the final week, but I'll just say this. If this didn't get a PLF boost, then an opening weekend below $10M would be all but assured. 

 

I genuinely feel sorry for all the theater owners who wish to keep playing Deadpool and Wolverine on all those PLF screens, but have to make room for a movie that (unless a literal miracle happens) will barely hit or miss out on double digits. 

It's insane that there will be a bunch of empty PLF showings of Borderlands because of Contracts. But they got to honor them I guess.

[vafrow]

On 8/3/2024 at 7:44 AM, vafrow said:

 

Borderlands, T-6, Western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 18

New Sales: 13

Growth: 260%

Theatres: 5

Showtimes: 17

Tickets per Showtime: 1.1

Chains tracked: MTC4

Ticket Premium in effect: N

 

Sales by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 5/5

Early Evening: 11/6

Late Evening: 2/6

 

Sales by Format

Regular: 9/15

VIP: 9/2

 

Comps 

0.500x BB:RoD for $2.9M

0.621x KOTPOTA for $3.1M

0.375x GB:FE for $1.8M

0.080x GxK for $0.8M

 

Average: $2.1M

 

I guess I haven't updated this for a while. It's a hard title to muster any excitement for as a tracker, and looks like that applies for audiences as well.

 

This actually lost two showings this past week. 

 

Borderlands, T-5, Western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 17

New Sales: -1

Growth: -5%

Theatres: 5

Showtimes: 17

Tickets per Showtime: 1.0

Chains tracked: MTC4

Ticket Premium in effect: N

 

Sales by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 5/5

Early Evening: 10/6

Late Evening: 2/6

 

Sales by Format

Regular: 8/15

VIP: 9/2

 

Comps 

0.472x BB:RoD for $2.8M

0.586x KOTPOTA for $2.9M

0.309x GB:FE for $1.5M

0.069x GxK for $0.7M

 

Average: $2.0M

 

Went down by one.

 

Note: My schedule is a bit erratic this week with some travel, and I may not get many updates in. It's a shame as I want to track the start of Beetlejuice. I think that's going to be an interesting one. That said, I have no idea what good comps for that might be.

[filmlover]

@CJohn all excited by the return of Lionsflop!

 

Borderlands just seems so lame despite the cast. It's being left for dead and will perform accordingly.

[Boxofficerules]

1 hour ago, filmlover said:

@CJohn all excited by the return of Lionsflop!

 

Borderlands just seems so lame despite the cast. It's being left for dead and will perform accordingly.

They took a mature rated game and toned it down for a pg 13, even the fans aren't interested.

[AniNate]

Casting Cate Blanchett as the lead also seems like an... odd choice judging from what the game model looks like

[AJG]

5 hours ago, filmlover said:

@CJohn all excited by the return of Lionsflop!

 

Borderlands just seems so lame despite the cast. It's being left for dead and will perform accordingly.

Borderlands itself is just dated. Cool visuals, but the games suffer from that old school ‘filler humour’ where exhausted writers have to constantly pump out funny dialogue to fill a 20 hour game. Video games also don’t maintain their popularity like other franchises. Just look at Halo.

[VanillaSkies]

As with other EA showings this summer, It Ends with us is now getting multiple showings for Wednesday night EA, some theatres now with 4-5 showtimes. 
 

It’s certainly putting up a fight for #1 this upcoming weekend.

[abracadabra1998]

On 8/1/2024 at 4:44 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

Alien: Romulus (T-14):

Day: T-14	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 23 theaters	103	89	415	17314	2.4

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		328	71	79.04
MTC1:		316	70	76.14
Other chains:		99	19	23.86

 

Comps:

0.84x Twisters (w/ EA): $8.93 Million

Quiet Place Day One: Missed

1.05x Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (w/ EA): $6.9 Million

1.44x Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom: $6.49 Million (17 theaters)

3.84x Exorcist Believer: $10.95 Million (17 theaters)

 

This is doing REALLY solid, keeps on chugging along. I'm officially on the break-out train.

 

Apologies for so many posts today, this is the last one!

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

Alien: Romulus (T-11):

Day: T-11	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 23 theaters	103	130	545	17314	3.15

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		424	96	77.8
MTC1:		402	86	73.76
Other chains:		143	44	26.24

 

Comps:

0.94x Twisters (w/ EA): $10.09 Million

Quiet Place Day One: Missed

1.19x Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (w/ EA): $7.84 Million

1.72x Fall Guy (w/ EA): $5.42 Million

1.72x Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom: $7.76 Million (17 theaters)

 

I don't know, what @Eric is Trapped did register with me and is making me apprehensive that this will be very pre-sale heavy, but at the same time it's horror which is usually the opposite of that. Can't ignore that these pre-sales are looking awesome. Maybe @M37 can chime in? Any thoughts on good comps and what the trajectory for this will look like?

[Caption Action 3]

What is Cinemark doing right with regard to offering open captions (on-screen subtitles)? Again, on Sunday, no zero solds for the three movies we tracked at seven Cinemark theaters: Deadpool & Wolverine, DM 4, and Inside Out 2. Cinemark doesn't even promote their open caption screenings yet the evidence appears to indicate that plenty of people are choosing open captions, at Cinemark. Again, each movie had an adequate number of non-OC screenings that moviegoers could have chosen instead of the open caption screenings. Cinemark should be offering OC at all of its theaters. If this data is any indication, Cinemark could be leaving $$ on the table by not offering OC at all of its theaters.

 

The 7 theaters:

1. Cinemark Century Aurora (Aurora, CO)
2. Cinemark Meadowbrook (Bridgeport, WV)
3. Cinemark Centreville (Centreville, VA)
4. Cinemark Carefree Circle (Colorado Springs, CO)
5. Cinemark Greeley Mall (Greeley, CO)
6. Cinemark Egyptian (Hanover, MD)
7. Cinemark Totem Lake Kirland (Kirkland, WA)

Summary data:

Inside Out 2 – OC Sunday
# of Tickets/# of Markets	117	7	16.71
# of tickets/#of theaters	117	7	16.71
#of tickets/#of screen times	117	7	16.71
# of zero sold/#of screen times	0	7	0.00

 

DM 4– OC Sunday
# of Tickets/# of Markets	199	7	28.43
# of tickets/#of theaters	199	7	28.43
#of tickets/#of screen times	199	7	28.43
# of zero sold/#of screen times	0	7	0.00

 

Deadpool &Wolverine– OC Sunday
# of Tickets/# of Markets	285	7	40.71
# of tickets/#of theaters	285	7	40.71
#of tickets/#of screen times	285	7	40.71
# of zero sold/#of screen times	0	7	0.00

 

Actual data:

Movie	Market	Theater	Time	# of OC seats sold	Zero Sold	# of non-OC screenings
	Aurora (CO)
Inside Out 2		Cinemark Century Aurora	4:15 PM	12		5 non OC
DM 4		Cinemark Century Aurora	2:50 PM	36		5 non OC
D&W		Cinemark Century Aurora	3:20 PM	36		28 non OC
	Bridgeport (WV)
Inside Out 2		Cinemark Meadowbrook	3:55 PM	4		4 non OC
DM 4		Cinemark Meadowbrook	5:25 PM	13		4 non OC
D&W		Cinemark Meadowbrook	3:30 PM	18		19 non oc
	Centreville (VA)
Inside Out 2		Cinemark Centreville	2:50 PM	10		6 non OC
DM 4		Cinemark Centreville	2:15 PM	16		5 non OC
D&W		Cinemark Centreville	1:40 PM	35		23 non OC
	Colorado Springs (CO)
Inside Out 2		Cinemark Carefree Circle	2:10 PM	38		5 non OC
DM 4		Cinemark Carefree Circle	2:45 PM	52		9 non OC
D&W		Cinemark Carefree Circle	5:10 PM	40		35 non OC
	Greeley (CO)
Inside Out 2		Cinemark Greeley Mall	2:25 PM	11		6 non OC
DM 4		Cinemark Greeley Mall	4:45 PM	24		5 non OC
D&W		Cinemark Greeley Mall	4:35 PM	55		22 non OC
	Hanover (MD)
Inside Out 2		Cinemark Egyptian	2:10 PM	37		8 non OC
DM 4		Cinemark Egyptian	2:15 PM	29		9 non OC
D&W		Cinemark Egyptian	1:10 PM	48		54 non OC
	Kirkland (WA)
Inside Out 2		Cinemark Totem Lake Kirkland	12:20 PM	5		4 non OC
DM 4		Cinemark Totem Lake Kirkland	1:10 PM	29		4 non OC
D&W		Cinemark Totem Lake Kirkland	2:10 PM	53		13 non OC

 

 

[misterpepp]

I think I forgot to mention that Beetlejuice Beetlejuice has EA shows on Sep 4. Unsure if those planning to track BJx2 knew that already or not.

Edited August 5 by misterpepp

[abracadabra1998]

On 8/1/2024 at 4:29 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

It Ends With Us (T-7):

Day: T-7, T-6	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 23 theaters	74	311	694	7175	9.67
Wednesday EA: 9 theaters	11	241	574	1166	49.23
TOTALS:	85	552	1268	8341	15.2

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		189	74	27.23
Other chains:		505	237	72.77

(Chart for Thursday sales only)

 

Thursday comps:

1.81x Wonka: $6.35 Million (17 theaters)

0.75x Hunger Games BoSS: $4.3 Million (17 theaters)

0.19x Barbie: $3.94 Million (17 theaters)

1.73x Don't Worry Darling: $5.36 Million (12 theaters)

 

EA comps:

0.5x Dune Part 2: $1.01 Million

0.37x Barbie: $410k

 

Combined THU + EA Comp:

2.06x Mean Girls (w/ EA): $6.69 Million (17 theaters)

 

This whole thing is tricky. I think a combination of DWD and Mean Girls are probably the best comps. I chose those comps for EA because unless a ton of shows are added, capacity WILL be an issue like those two comps. Any other EA comp would spit out a way bigger value, but those comps have walk-ups that this will not have (in my opinion). 

 

At this point a Thursday in the 5-value and a combined THU + EA in the 6-value feels right, but the frontloadedness of this may make those lower

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

It Ends With Us (T-4):

Day: T-4, T-3	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 23 theaters	75	542	1236	7262	17.02
Wednesday EA: 9 theaters	12	187	761	1214	62.69
TOTALS:	87	729	1997	8476	23.56

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		385	196	31.15
Other chains:		851	346	68.85

 

Thursday comps:

2.55x Wonka: $8.92 Million (17 theaters)

0.88x Hunger Games BoSS: $5.08 Million (17 theaters)

0.24x Barbie: $5.01 Million (17 theaters)

1.95x Don't Worry Darling: $6.06 Million (12 theaters)

 

EA comps:

0.57x Dune Part 2: $1.15 Million

 

Combined THU + EA Comp:

2.25x Mean Girls (w/ EA): $7.3 Million (17 theaters)

 

Killing it, with an ATP adjustment probably looking at around $5ish Million combined for now

[abracadabra1998]

On 8/1/2024 at 4:39 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

Borderlands (T-7):

Day: T-7	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 23 theaters	90	56	138	11755	1.17

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		44	13	31.88
MTC1:		42	23	30.43
Other chains:		96	33	69.57

 

Comps:

0.21x Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (w/ EA): $1.39 Million

2.38x Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare: $2.02 Million

0.63x Argyle: $1.08 Million (17 theaters)

0.46x Blue Beetle: $1.52 Million (17 theaters)

2.32x Expend4bles: $1.74 Million (17 theaters)

 

On the come up (slightly)

 

Cuckoo (T-7):

Day: T-7	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 13 theaters	23	46	46	1639	2.81

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		39	39	84.78
Other chains:		7	7	15.22

 

Comps:

0.19x Longlegs: $560k

0.92x Abigail: $920k

0.79x Lisa Frankenstein: $550k

0.67x Thanksgiving: $670k

 

I'll have Immaculate and Talk To Me comps on Sunday. Heading to under 1 Million previews

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

Borderlands (T-4):

Day: T-4	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 24 theaters	94	69	207	12457	1.66

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		66	22	31.88
MTC1:		69	27	33.33
Other chains:		138	42	66.67

 

Comps:

0.23x Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (w/ EA): $1.5 Million

2.27x Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare: $1.93 Million

0.67x Argyle: $1.13 Million (17 theaters)

0.57x Blue Beetle: $1.89 Million (17 theaters)

2.01x Expend4bles: $1.51 Million (17 theaters)

 

No bueno

 

Cuckoo (T-4):

Day: T-4	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 13 theaters	24	28	74	1697	4.36

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		66	27	89.19
Other chains:		8	1	10.81

 

Comps:

0.19x Longlegs: $565k

0.94x Abigail: $935k

1.89x Immaculate: $1.04 Million (17 theaters)

0.91x Lisa Frankenstein: $635k (17 theaters)

0.72x Thanksgiving: $725k (17 theaters)

0.63x Talk To Me: $785k (17 theaters)

 

Still looking like it's heading to under a million previews

[keysersoze123]

23 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

It ends with us MTC2

Early Shows - 11618/28342 154585.18 263 shows +1464

Previews(T-5) - 26366/164192 336241.71 1529 shows  +2484

 

Weaker day on saturday. MTC1 will be updated in the morning. 

It ends with us MTC2

Early Shows - 13255/29292 176977.57 266 shows +1637

Previews(T-4) - 29957/167481 380614.49 1561 shows +3591

 

We are entering final weekdays and it will accelerate for sure. 

 

@Menor the Destroyer is the one collecting MTC1 data. I  hope he can post it in the morning. I expect it to play even stronger over there. 

 

That said it does NOT have a chance of winning the weekend. Lack of PLF plus this is fan driven and so will be frontloaded after its OD. That said it will still open very well.