Weekday numbers 7-31 to 8-3

[Brainbug]

10 minutes ago, upriser7 said:

Barbie would be at around 410M after end of 2nd week. 

 

If Barbie has 50% weekly drop for rest of it's run, it would finish at 562M

 

50% weekly drop - 562M

45% weekly drop - 596M

40% weekly drop - 638M

35% weekly drop - 692M

30% weekly drop - 765M

25% weekly drop - 865M

 

I am leaning more towards that 35% drop scenario..it would put it close to 700M.

 

50% weekly drop - 562M Great total still

45% weekly drop - 596M Even better, but annoyingly close to 600

40% weekly drop - 638M The best total, im all for it, go Barbie!

35% weekly drop - 692M Fuck

 

 

[Mojoguy]

5 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

Probably not - the 2 new openers are probably taking too many showings away...

Theaters will drop Indy and MI showings first before dropping any Barbenheimer showings. Not surprised if both Indy and MI each lose 1000+ this weekend.

Edited August 1, 2023 by Mojoguy

[WorkingonaName]

We can solve this by making Jurassic Universe. 

[Brainbug]

5 minutes ago, WorkingonaName said:

We can solve this by making Jurassic Universe. 

 

I always wanted an underwater spin-off where they try to find the Mosasaur in the depths of the ocean and it obviously goes wrong. I unironically think that could be big. The Mosasaur is a fan favourite.

[swishy]

12 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

Probably not - the 2 new openers are probably taking too many showings away...

Indy, Elemental, MI7, etc. are all going to lose more screens.

 

Meg 2 doesn't have that many screenings here from what it looks like.

 

TMNT has more screenings than Barbie it seems but they are way less sold than Barbie. They will end up adjusting them later on and as long as the demand holds, Barbie will probably end up retaining (or even adding) screens as August goes on.

[Valonqar]

2 hours ago, cannastop said:

Bar2billion

even better! 

[swishy]

Honestly, Barbie and Oppenheimer could be the movies most positively affected by the strike. That alone gives them really strong potential for their legs.

[Mojoguy]

4 minutes ago, swishy said:

Honestly, Barbie and Oppenheimer could be the movies most positively affected by the strike. That alone gives them really strong potential for their legs.

With the SAG strike banning all actors from promoting movies, all the marketing for movies released after Barbenheimer have been crippled. It just FEELS like Barbenheimer are the last event films of the year. Both movies will have really long legs.

[Eevin]

what would good numbers for meg/tmnt look like this weekend relative to expectations? i haven’t been keeping tabs on tracking as much but my priors are like 20-25 for meg 2 and 30-35 5-day for tmnt. don’t know if i’m being optimistic or pessimistic there

[cannastop]

1 minute ago, Eevin said:

what would good numbers for meg/tmnt look like this weekend relative to expectations? i haven’t been keeping tabs on tracking as much but my priors are like 20-25 for meg 2 and 30-35 5-day for tmnt. don’t know if i’m being optimistic or pessimistic there

I think people are thinking more like over $40 for Turtles 5 day.

[TwoMisfits]

17 minutes ago, Mojoguy said:

Theaters will drop Indy and MI showings first before dropping any Barbenheimer showings. Not surprised if both Indy and MI each lose 1000+ this weekend.

 

My 14 local is dropping Barbie down to 2 screens/12 showings (from 20 showings and 4 screens) and cutting Dolby showings in 1/2, so this weekend, it's gonna hurt.  Next weekend, with Gran Turismo moving off, should let Barbie keep most of its space given this weekend, so the spacing issue should relent.  In interesting news, the PLF is split 4 ways with Barbie, Oppy, TMNT, and Meg 2.

 

Now, that said, Oppy is finally gaining showings - it had been stuck with 7, but will get 9 this weekend for 3 screens.

 

For the rest of the set...

 

TMNT - 2 screens

Meg 2 - 2 screens

Haunted Mansion - 1 screen

MI7 - 1 screen

SoF - 1 screen

Talk to Me - 1 screen

1st Slam Dunk - .5 screen

Foreign film - .5 screen

 

Indy is the only drop...everything else was already gone last week.

[Krissykins]

Wow, $15m for Barbie. Incredible. 

[Brainbug]

Just now, Krissykins said:

Wow, $15m for Barbie. Incredible. 

 

I know right? Its a solid OD.

[TwoMisfits]

My non PLF 12 is also making cuts...

 

TMNT and Meg 2 both get 2 screens each.

 

So, for holdovers, 

Barbie gets 2 screens (11 showings) - (1 screen/6 showing cut)

Oppy keeps 2 screens (7 showings)

Haunted Mansion drops to 1 screen

Talk to Me keeps 1 screen

MI 7 keeps 1 screen

Sound of Freedom keeps 1 screen

 

This is all they are holding...and they still needed to drop Barbie showings at this point...

[VanillaSkies]

looks like 300 million is back in the menu. There was no way Disney was going to let it get that close and not push it over. 

[Killimano3]

43 minutes ago, WorkingonaName said:

We can solve this by making Jurassic Universe. 

 

Finally time for Cretaceous Park/World

[vale9001]

8 minutes ago, VanillaSkies said:

looks like 300 million is back in the menu. There was no way Disney was going to let it get that close and not push it over. 

 

 

This Is what Warner will make for Barbie to push It from 718M to 721M.

 

 

 

[swishy]

32 minutes ago, Mojoguy said:

With the SAG strike banning all actors from promoting movies, all the marketing for movies released after Barbenheimer have been crippled. It just FEELS like Barbenheimer are the last event films of the year. Both movies will have really long legs.

Agreed 100%. I feel like people don't talk about this enough when talking about Barbie and Oppy's box office performances/legs.

[vale9001]

3 minutes ago, swishy said:

Agreed 100%. I feel like people don't talk about this enough when talking about Barbie and Oppy's box office performances/legs.

 

Well in any case August and september didn't have any event movie. Of course this week a new big new Marvel would have been more discussed than Barbie + Opp After 2 weeks, even with the strike. 

 

I kinda agree with this but i think the effect will be more evident in the next weeks. Right now i don't think the strike has a big impact on them being an event. 

Edited August 1, 2023 by vale9001

[Kon]

1 hour ago, vafrow said:

 

I know that the running joke is how studios are going to rush out to make every toy line a movie, but, if the real lesson is that studios need to invest more for theatre worthy blockbusters for the female demographic, I wonder if that big budget Nancy Myers project that WB was rumoured to pick up from Netflix might move forward.

 

The idea of a $130M RomCom was mocked when it was with Netflix, but, I honestly think it's a worthwhile experiment for a major studio. 

 

I have no idea what a RomCom at that scale looks like on screen, but if it can look and feel different, I think you can draw a crowd. 

It would really need to offer something that a romance in streaming or TV show couldn't offer.

 

The reason why big budget blockbusters have undeserved women is because they could hardly offer something different in genres aimed toward women.

 

 

Action movies for me tend to be pretty simple because the bid budget allow more special effects.