Weekend Thread (8/11-13) | Demeter 750K Previews

[emoviefan]

6 minutes ago, M37 said:

Because Fallout was clearly a female heavier, lack of competition, anomaly for the franchise? And Ghost Protocol had benefit of holidays to boost total, leaving RN as the most logical comp. Even comparing to average of last 3, a $175M total is still only -15% from that domestic baseline 

 

“Disappointing” is fair, and I would agree the monster that came after (mostly Oppy) helped keep down the total, but the amount of BOT pages filled with lamenting despair over a totally reasonable - if not underwhelming - performance has grown pretty tiresome

it's Box Office Theory. 

[John Marston]

9 minutes ago, M37 said:

Because Fallout was clearly a female heavier, lack of competition, anomaly for the franchise? And Ghost Protocol had benefit of holidays to boost total, leaving RN as the most logical comp. Even comparing to average of last 3, a $175M total is still only -15% from that domestic baseline 

 

“Disappointing” is fair, and I would agree the monster that came after (mostly Oppy) helped keep down the total, but the amount of BOT pages filled with lamenting despair over a totally reasonable - if not underwhelming - performance has grown pretty tiresome

 

 

 

massive BO disappointments obviously will get attention on a BO forum. Especially one where the film in question had a lot going for it . Also you can’t just suddenly claim Fallout can’t be the main base of comparison 

Edited August 14, 2023 by John Marston

[CJohn]

21 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

 

Not surprised with Turtles, it presumably has little OS appeal, a very Spider-Verse-ish run. And Demeter always screamed bomb lol.

 

Gran Turismo didn't come that far off from 2014's Need for Speed in tickets sold, which given ticket price inflation and the bigger popularity of the NfS franchise is positive imo 👏

 

Um Filme do Caraças looks like a fucking abomination lol. Is it really a bomb in the making, though? That kind of movies always performs well. I've seen ads attached to Liga Portugal games on Sport TV too. As for Blue Beetle and Strays, RIP.

Even the live action Turtles flopped here so yeah, little surprise with this one, even with they went all in and in a few theaters MI and Elemental were replaced by TMNT, which was a mistake.

 

The Summer desperately needs new hits to replace the Barbenheimer at the top (still going strong but losing steam) so Um Filme do Caraças breaking out would be good, even if it looks like the worst thing ever. However, I believe the Portuguese breakout slot was already filled with Pôr do Sol, which should push itself to over 100.000 tickets sold by the end of its run and I am fully expecting Um Filme do Caraças to tank. 

 

The next two weeks look really rough for new releases. I don't see anything opening to half of what Gran Turismo did this weekend which for August is really bad. Curral de Moinas last year sold 100.000 tickets alone on this same week.

[Liiviig 1998]

3 hours ago, Kon said:

 

I don't think there is any guarantee that Luke, Leia and Han will be so attractive as main protagonists for a new trilogy. I mean, Indy5 shows that age could be a real issue for action movies.

 

I don't think the OT characters should have been relegated, but Disney focusing on new younger characters wasn't really a mistake.

 

 

PS: They will also have a lot more problems for the third movie, but no one could foresee that.

Indy and OT may have the same cultural footprint. But Indy was always a wish fullfilIment character, old Indy never worked quite well.

Fans were

 

Luke han Leia had alot of interesting plot points that excited fans and we're looking forward too.

 

Luke's Jedi order

new republic and world .

New villians.

 

And by the end of the ST well ... . ST crippled worldbuilding of starwars so badly . 

 

Like with other franchises I can try to understand why they opted for safe reboot route but starwars had three iconic characters, massive world and tons of popularity . And PT  despite it's flaws was heavily loved and ROTS was well liked . It's not like the franchise was in " Batman and Robin" or "JP3" situation where both movies really underperformed and we're so hated .

 

ST was in prime position to swing for new story with both old characters who are super popular and have massive nostalgia and new characters to introduce to a new generation.  But Disney execs got the money looks in their eyes and they flipped the switch back and decided to rush out a safe rehash sequel without any plan and to make it worse all the achievements of the OT were just washed way.

 

New republic is incompetent and let's first order which some how can build a mega death star that consumes suns run amock . Why is there a resistance? shouldn't it just be the republic army under general Leia. guess they just wanted rebel- empire dynamic like ANH so bad.

 

New Jedi order is dead off screen and somehow the world has forgotten about it. 

 

Han is just a smuggler again after his whole arc in the OT. They really needed it to be like ANH . Like I get shit has changed he divorced ,Kylo happened but like why just not make him a retired air fleet general with numerous honours with his glory days behind him .get to simply maintain the plotlines without it coming off a rehash.

 

TFA manages to gives us new characters and some interesting  plotlines but it undermines the OT and all it's victories n worldbuilding and slowly starts to alienate audiences. TLJ and ROS just double down on that instead of answering the plot points set up by TFA and covering the storyline gap btn ROTS and TFA to give us a more coherent story. 

 

None of the sequels even TFA which I like wants to shoulder the responsibility of trying to bridge the storyline gaps from post ROTS. TLJ literally didn't want to deal with certain  plot points from TFA. This movies just wanted massive payoffs without doing  much groundwork to get there.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[baumer]

Pluto Nash is a bomb

Ishtar was a bomb

Heaven's Gate was a bomb.

 

If a movie ALMOST doubles it's budget but falls a little bit short, that is not a bomb, it's a mild disappointment.

[Kon]

28 minutes ago, baumer said:

Pluto Nash is a bomb

Ishtar was a bomb

Heaven's Gate was a bomb.

 

If a movie ALMOST doubles it's budget but falls a little bit short, that is not a bomb, it's a mild disappointment.

I wouldn't say mild dissappoinment. If a box office only double its budget, it means the studio isn't recovering their money invested with the box office.

 

I mean, I know there are other ways the studios gets money from the movies. However, the studios don't invest in big budget movies to not to recover the investment (at least) in the box office.

Edited August 14, 2023 by Kon

[Celedhring]

6 minutes ago, Kon said:

I wouldn't say mild dissappoinment. If a box office only double its budget, it means the studio isn't recovering their money invested with the box office.

 

I mean, I know there are other ways the studios gets money from the movies. However, the studios don't invest in big budget movies to not to recover the investment (at least) in the box office.

 

You're not wrong, but just wanted to point out that in the 1990s and 2000s many movies - even big ones - were released with the expectation that money wouldn't be made until the film went through all the release windows. But stuff like home video or broadcasting rights brought in significant amounts back then.

Edited August 14, 2023 by Celedhring

[M37]

1 hour ago, John Marston said:

 

 

 

massive BO disappointments obviously will get attention on a BO forum. Especially one where the film in question had a lot going for it . Also you can’t just suddenly claim Fallout can’t be the main base of comparison 

It’s not “suddenly”, I’ve been saying that from the beginning (go back and look!) trying to temper expectations a bit (and clearly not succeeding)

[M37]

24 minutes ago, baumer said:

Pluto Nash is a bomb

Ishtar was a bomb

Heaven's Gate was a bomb.

 

If a movie ALMOST doubles it's budget but falls a little bit short, that is not a bomb, it's a mild disappointment.

 

(especially if said budget was up to 50% higher because of COVID-related added/ unexpected costs)

[Agafin]

Barbie looks headed to $630-$640m final cume.

[The GOAT]

18 minutes ago, Celedhring said:

 

You're not wrong, but just wanted to point out that in the 1990s and 2000s many movies - even big ones - were released with the expectation that money wouldn't be made until the film went through all the release windows. But stuff like home video or broadcasting rights brought in significant amounts back then.

This is back when physical media sales were still strong, when television was at its peak, and things like Blockbusters were still a viable business. 
Shawshank Redemption was Massive hit in that regard, despite bombing out in theaters.

[harry713]

36 minutes ago, Agafin said:

Barbie looks headed to $630-$640m final cume.

 

I think 640m is the low end since it will be close to 550m going into this weekend. 

 

640m - 680m (with a slim chance they push for 700m with a rerelease/expansion) seems more likely.

Edited August 14, 2023 by harry713

[MrFanaticGuy34]

6 minutes ago, harry713 said:

 

I think 640m is the low end since it will be close to 550m going into this weekend. 

 

640m - 680m (with a slim chance they push for 700m with a rerelease/expansion) seems more likely.

A Barbie movie outgrossing Titanic in the U.S? . Five years ago or so, that movie was the 3rd highest grosser DOM-wise of all time, now it’s at 9th place. And of Barbie does outgross it somehow, it’ll push it to 10th place. 😲🤯👩🏻‍💼

[redfirebird2008]

23 minutes ago, MrFanaticGuy34 said:

A Barbie movie outgrossing Titanic in the U.S? . Five years ago or so, that movie was the 3rd highest grosser DOM-wise of all time, now it’s at 9th place. And of Barbie does outgross it somehow, it’ll push it to 10th place. 😲🤯👩🏻‍💼

 

Shrug. Titanic is over $1.2 billion domestic after inflation. It's pointless to compare new movies to it, lol

[The GOAT]

24 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

Shrug. Titanic is over $1.2 billion domestic after inflation. It's pointless to compare new movies to it, lol

I’m surprised to see A New Hope is at #2 at $1.6bil. That explains how force awakens made $912M

[JohnnyGossamer]

16 minutes ago, The GOAT said:

I’m surprised to see A New Hope is at #2 at $1.6bil. That explains how force awakens made $912M

Phantom Menace did insane admissions back in 1999 too. 464M DOM back then has got to be something like 750M~ DOM now. OT sold a lot of tickets for the first of the sequels and prequels.

[redfirebird2008]

9 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

Phantom Menace did insane admissions back in 1999 too. 464M DOM back then has got to be something like 750M~ DOM now. OT sold a lot of tickets for the first of the sequels and prequels.

 

TPM made $431M in 1999. The 474 number you're seeing must be from later re-releases. But yes it was huge, not too far from TFA's admissions. TFA had a large amount of PLF boost in 2015, which essentially did not exist for TPM in 1999. Those 2 movies are much closer in admissions than people realize. TPM was around 85 million admissions, quite a bit larger than films like Spidey 1 or TDK (around 70M admissions). 

[MCKillswitch123]

3 hours ago, CJohn said:

Even the live action Turtles flopped here so yeah, little surprise with this one, even with they went all in and in a few theaters MI and Elemental were replaced by TMNT, which was a mistake.

 

The Summer desperately needs new hits to replace the Barbenheimer at the top (still going strong but losing steam) so Um Filme do Caraças breaking out would be good, even if it looks like the worst thing ever. However, I believe the Portuguese breakout slot was already filled with Pôr do Sol, which should push itself to over 100.000 tickets sold by the end of its run and I am fully expecting Um Filme do Caraças to tank. 

 

The next two weeks look really rough for new releases. I don't see anything opening to half of what Gran Turismo did this weekend which for August is really bad. Curral de Moinas last year sold 100.000 tickets alone on this same week.

 

Big shame on the Turtles side, though, since I'm pretty sure they're popular amidst our generation, and even the younger kids have the Nickelodeon show. I guess kids these days don't care anymore lol.

 

Eh, given that the kind of movie Um Filme do Caraças is, I'd hardly be surprised if it came close to Pôr do Sol numbers. Maybe not that high, but like 23-25k tickets. The leads are Herman José and Pedro Alves aka Zeca Estacionâncio/Bino from Festa é Festa, after all. Alves literally had the Curral de Moinas hit last year.

 

And yeah, probably nothing will do substantial numbers anytime soon. Maybe only in September when Saw X comes out?

[mikeymichael]

18 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

TPM made $431M in 1999. The 474 number you're seeing must be from later re-releases. But yes it was huge, not too far from TFA's admissions. TFA had a large amount of PLF boost in 2015, which essentially did not exist for TPM in 1999. Those 2 movies are much closer in admissions than people realize. TPM was around 85 million admissions, quite a bit larger than films like Spidey 1 or TDK (around 70M admissions). 

 

What was TFA's admissions? And is there a list somewhere that displays accurate(ish) admissions totals for new movies? 

[grim22]

4 hours ago, M37 said:

Because Fallout was clearly a female heavier, lack of competition, anomaly for the franchise? And Ghost Protocol had benefit of holidays to boost total, leaving RN as the most logical comp. Even comparing to average of last 3, a $175M total is still only -15% from that domestic baseline 

 

“Disappointing” is fair, and I would agree the monster that came after (mostly Oppy) helped keep down the total, but the amount of BOT pages filled with lamenting despair over a totally reasonable - if not underwhelming - performance has grown pretty tiresome

 

Calling DR1's performance "totally reasonable" feels like major gaslighting, especially considering pre-release expectations coming off of Fallout and Maverick and the reviews and Cinemascore.