Weekend Thread (11/17-19) | Early Deadline #s - Songbirds 5.75-6M Previews, Trolls 2M

[Warmaster506]

Dune 2 should have stayed in November. It would have won with ease. 

[TheFlatLannister]

 

If this happens, I'm all for Feige being replaced...

 

Time for a new vision 

[Spidey Freak]

I know it's not BOT if there isn't incessant gloom and doom but considering the two industry strikes going on for multiple months that prevented actors from promoting Q3 and some of Q4 films, 2023 ain't that bad.

[wildphantom]

14 minutes ago, emoviefan said:

As I have said the problem here is the implosion of The MCU with the Marvels. If that had hit this would be a improvement over last year when it was BP;WF and the One week engagement of Glass Onion. That was it.  BOSS and Trolls are doing fine for their expactations and Wish and Napoleon will too.

Yep. Let’s not forget that the number of releases compared to pre-pandemic year on year are miles off. 
 

There’s absolutely a certain kind of movie that’s now going to do less than it would have a few years ago. I don’t disagree with that at all. Yet that correction does not mean the sky is falling as everything else isn’t far away whatsoever. 
 

There needs to be major budget control, which will already be underway but we won’t see the results of this for a couple of years.  
 

There’s no better promotion for a film than it being in cinemas, regardless of if it doesn’t do as well as it would have a few years ago.  The way those films generate revenue has shifted a little, but to say the theatrical banner isn’t anything but essential to the perception of those films forever - foolhardy in my opinion. 
 

The windows feed into each other. 
Flower Moon is an event for those waiting to watch it on Apple. The Killer was a non-event as it became a thumbnail on Netflix within hours. 
 

 

Edited November 19, 2023 by wildphantom

[Kon]

53 minutes ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

Massive copium from MCU fans on Twitter. 

What is happening?

 

I don't want to read twitter.

[Bob Train]

42 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

Sorry I couldn't get the optimism here. I do have to agree there are some recovery sign for Oscar-hopeful titles as compared to the clusterbomb last year but outside of that, there are really nothing much to celebrate in 2023.

 

Late-2022 was blessed with multiple non-tentpole flicks. Ticket to paradise and Woman King both come close to 70m and VN did 50m, don't forget the menu did 38m too. I don't see 2023 come any much better than what we had in 2022. The Holdovers start dropping in 4th weekend despite double in theater locations, and Anatomy of fall falling behind Triangle of Sadness means the recovery of specialty market and non-tentpole adult flick is still pretty much stagnant.    

 

 

 

Taylor Swift and Sound of Freedom as well as every horror movie this year except 2 are the low-budget success stories this year.

[Zakiyyah6]

12 minutes ago, Warmaster506 said:

Dune 2 should have stayed in November. It would have won with ease. 

No it should not have stayed in November. Unlike The Marvels, Dune is the type of film that will benefit from Zendaya and Timmy promoting it. 

[MOVIEGUY]

49 minutes ago, emoviefan said:

Here's the thing. The movies were made. Does it suck they are not doing well as they were 10 years ago. Yeah but they are out there for us to enjoy now. Yes this a box office forum but our obession with box office is not healthy in any way, Not much we can do about it except for continue to love and consume movies and if we are the last people in a theater as they are turning out the lights for good and telling us to leave them's the breaks i guess.

 

The Killers of the Flower Moon weekend thread was just all people being miserable about its box office performance. I know what forum we're on here, but it was a bit of a bummer that hardly anyone could take a moment to appreciate what an amazing film we just got.

Edited November 19, 2023 by MOVIEGUY

[JimmyB]

18 minutes ago, Bob Train said:

To be fair, there are still at least 8 movies this year likely to make >35m, so it is not exactly a fair comparison. By the end of the year the #50 film will be closer to 45-50m.

 

While sure, that is down from 2019 56m, it is also way up from the pitiful 22m from last year. So the BO is still recovering from the pandemic, which is why 2023 is 23% above 2022. Eventually we will reach a new post-pandemic “normal”, but we aren‘t there yet.

True 2023 is 23% above 2022 but will end 23% below 2019 with an all time high ATP.  

 

The YTD box office is at 7.93B. November 2023 will come in around 500M. 100m+ behind November 2022. December 2023 will finish behind December 2022 probably by another 100m.  Barbenheimer was an extreme outlier vs everything else we have seen this year. 2024 will be lucky to match 2023.

Edited November 19, 2023 by JimmyB
spelling

[emoviefan]

7 minutes ago, wildphantom said:

Yep. Let’s not forget that the number of releases compared to pre-pandemic year on year are miles off. 
 

There’s absolutely a certain kind of movie that’s now going to do less than it would have a few years ago. I don’t disagree with that at all. Yet that correction does not mean the sky is falling as everything else isn’t far away whatsoever. 
 

There needs to be major budget control, which will already be underway but we won’t see the results of this for a couple of years.  
 

There’s no better promotion for a film than it being in cinemas, regardless of if it doesn’t do as well as it would have a few years ago.  The way those film generate revenue has shifted a little, but to say the theatrical banner isn’t anything but essential to the perception of those films forever - foolhardy in my opinion. 
 

The windows feed into each other. 
Flower Moon is an event for those waiting to watch it on Apple. The Killer was a non-event as it became a thumbnail on Netflix within hours. 
 

 

Yep I don't understand why Netflix does not get that. Back to Glass Onion it is as good as Knives Out if not better but it just evaporated into the ether it seems like once they pulled it from theaters. It cleaned up in theaters that one week.  It should have played out throughout the holidays in theaters. Apple is doing it right. Killers, Napoleon and even Argyle in Feb. They could have just dumped that but they and Universal must be feel like they have something. Hopefully.

[Cmasterclay]

54 minutes ago, emoviefan said:

Here's the thing. The movies were made. Does it suck they are not doing well as they were 10 years ago. Yeah but they are out there for us to enjoy now. Yes this a box office forum but our obession with box office is not healthy in any way, Not much we can do about it except for continue to love and consume movies and if we are the last people in a theater as they are turning out the lights for good and telling us to leave them's the breaks i guess.

Hey I hear you. I work in Democratic politics and I've spent the last six months telling everyone who will listen that Biden is in real trouble. It doesn't help or change anything to do this, it's just cathartic for me to do so. I recognize other people don't approach the situation in the same way even if they agree with my overarching point about how things are. 

Edited November 19, 2023 by Cmasterclay

[Jean Claude Web Madam]

Do people still think Young Avengers has a chance? It wouldn't even do Spy Kids 4 BO numbers.

[wildphantom]

1 minute ago, emoviefan said:

Yep I don't understand why Netflix does not get that. Back to Glass Onion it is as good as Knives Out if not better but it just evaporated into the ether it seems like once they pulled it from theaters. It cleaned up in theaters that one week.  It should have played out throughout the holidays in theaters. Apple is doing it right. Killers, Napoleon and even Argyle in Feb. They could have just dumped that but they and Universal must be feel like they have something. Hopefully.

as someone who buys films (albeit digitally now) I have $20 I’d willingly drop on buying Glass Onion, but apparently Netflix doesn’t want that money. Let alone all that theatrical money they left on the table. 
 

I still think it’s a matter of time before they play theatrical like Amazon and Apple do, and come to a deal with the main exhibitors. 

[Spidey Freak]

I get that it's juicy seeing the MCU fail this hard but tbh when the franchise that sold itself on its charismatic actors has its biggest bomb when the actors couldn't promote it until it was too late, is it really a fair and square L?

[Johnny Tran]

2 minutes ago, Spidey Freak said:

I get that it's juicy seeing the MCU fail this hard but tbh when the franchise that sold itself on its charismatic actors has its biggest bomb when the actors couldn't promote it until it was too late, is it really a fair and square L?

Yes and if anyone believes that Brie Larson going on a little media tour would have added hundreds of millions or even tens of millions then I would say they don't understand box office. 

[Firepower]

6 minutes ago, Spidey Freak said:

I get that it's juicy seeing the MCU fail this hard but tbh when the franchise that sold itself on its charismatic actors has its biggest bomb when the actors couldn't promote it until it was too late, is it really a fair and square L?

Actors promoting it wouldn't do shit, especially when it's the least popular or likable ones, it didn't even soften second weekend drop, unless you suggest it would've dropped in high 80s if actors didn't do late promo push.

Edited November 19, 2023 by Firepower

[TheFlatLannister]

6 minutes ago, Spidey Freak said:

I get that it's juicy seeing the MCU fail this hard but tbh when the franchise that sold itself on its charismatic actors has its biggest bomb when the actors couldn't promote it until it was too late, is it really a fair and square L?

Actors promoting is not the reason this is going to be the biggest box office bomb of all time...This is a complete rejection of the characters and the movie by both MCU fans and the GA
 

If Deadpool 3 came out during the strike it would have done big numbers because people actually care about that story and characters 

Edited November 19, 2023 by TheFlatLannister

[Eric Prime]

55 minutes ago, emoviefan said:

Okay, Me and Thomas are trying. Trying to get the sad sacks to stop being sad sacks is futile.

I mean I'll gladly take this than the fetishistic "lolololololol Marvels is the biggest bomb EVER" "lololololololol MCU fans are STOOPID" "lolololololololol look at this random guy on Twitter I could have easily just ignored" that has endured this whole weekend. So many people are acting sooooooo insufferable over this kids movie and I really can't wait for those guys to move on to something else. Already know all of Thanksgiving will be unbearable with this crap. 

[Cmasterclay]

32 minutes ago, Warmaster506 said:

Dune 2 should have stayed in November. It would have won with ease. 

The discourse if this particular movie had come out during the height of the Israel/Gaza war would have shredded the last few bits of sanity I have remaining.

[Torontofan]

38 minutes ago, Barnack said:

2019-2013 have thanksgiving + december to help a bit here, to date I imagine number 50 in 2019 would have looked closer to 45 millions dbo, Midway for example finished this weekend at 43m.

 

This was already pretty much saying the same

2023	$7,892,109,288	-	+22.4%	+138.4%	+293.4%	-18.3%	-24.1%
2022	$6,446,004,999	-18.3%	-	+94.7%	+221.3%	-33.3%	-38%
2021	$3,310,553,920	-58%	-48.6%	-	+65%	-65.7%	-68.2%
2020	$2,006,236,345	-74.6%	-68.9%	-39.4%	-	-79.2%	-80.7%
2019	$9,659,822,644	+22.4%	+49.9%	+191.8%	+381.5%	-	-7.1%

 

 

Despite 3-4 years of aggressive inflation, only 80% of what it was in nominal term (and 2019 was a down year)

 

Jokes 20% of all box office revenue in 2021 was No way Home 14 days of box office lol