Weekend Thread | Est. Renaissance $21M, TBOSS $14.5M, Godzilla -1.0 $11.03M, Trolls 3 $7.60M, Wish $7.41M, Napoleon $7.13M, Animal $6.14M, The Shift $4.36M &The Marvels $2.51M

[Kon]

12 minutes ago, MysteryMovieMogul said:

I think it's weird when people are celebrating big drops from Disney films but completely ignoring when other studio films have the same kind of drops.

 

At what point can we admit that Apple's gamble on filmmakers might, in fact, lose them money in the long run?

 

And no, I don't prescribe to the idea that Apple is just showing filmmakers they can trust Apple, because honestly, I'd trust them more if they gave a rising unknown money, and not known quantities like Ridley Scott or Martin Scorsese.

 

The thing is even if we assume Apple doesn't care about the box office, they were likely looking to win recognition or good reputation from the movies where they invested so much money.

 

In Napoleon's case, the reception hasn't been good. So, I really doubt the movie would work for Apple to generate good reputation.

Edited December 2, 2023 by Kon

[Taylor89]

14 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

Seems like on the over/under 20M race, it should crack 20M and get to 21/22M without a catastrophic Sat/Sun fall...

 

Disney is setting up to have a disastrous holiday.  With Wish already under Trolls 3, it's lost the battle on which animated gets saved Dec 22 to accompany Migration for the biggest box office week of the year at most small and midsize theaters.  And Marvels is in free fall, and won't get saved, either.

 

We could be looking at a Xmas where 2500-3000 theaters carry no Disney product for the duration.

 

 

I really think Sat and Sunday drop will be big...

[Agafin]

Wish already below trolls is awful.

[M37]

7 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

Godzilla Minus One

 

 

 

Godzilla Minus One is a plus among those who bought tickets with an A CinemaScore, and updated PostTrak exits of 92% positive, 83% definite recommend. Guys leading at 77% with 63% of the audience between 18-34 and 25-34 the biggest quad at 38%. Diversity demos are 46% Caucasian, 31% Latino and Hispanic, 7% Black and 15% Asian/other. Godzilla’s chomp on PLF and IMAX screens are repping 45% of the pic’s weekend biz. Even play across the country, though West is the best. Top venue in the country is AMC Lincoln Square with close to $26K. Friday was $4.7M which includes $2.1M previews.

 

On 12/1/2023 at 7:45 AM, M37 said:

Put me down for a sub-5x for Godzilla (maybe closer to 4x?); should play very fan(boy) heavy, similar to an anime release, and with the extra day of EA shows - which appear to have sold more than the full Thursday preview - that's likely to siphon off business from the weekend and drag the IM down even lower. That the film is subtitled is going to be a limiting factor in expanding the audience pool even if WOM is very good

 

One Piece Film Red for example, had a $9.8M OW off a $1.7M preview in November of last year

 

So $2.1M Wed & Thu, $2.62M TFri ... yeah don't see Godzilla getting to $10M OW from here. Should be around $9M (+/- $0.5M) depending on how Saturday does relative to TFri

[Kon]

16 minutes ago, Johnny Tran said:

 

You seem to be hung up on this idea so my question to you is how are you going to prove it?  Apple didn't make these with box office in mind,  they want subscribers for Apple+ 

 

If they decided to release the movie in theatres, they should have some expectatives for this kind of release. Maybe not recovering all the money with the box office, but a good reception at least.

 

Even if we assume Apple just wanted subscribers or prestige for Apple+. I really doubt a movie with a terrible drop for its second weekend will help Apple on that.

Edited December 2, 2023 by Kon

[ThomasNicole]

11 minutes ago, MysteryMovieMogul said:

I think it's weird when people are celebrating big drops from Disney films but completely ignoring when other studio films have the same kind of drops.

 

At what point can we admit that Apple's gamble on filmmakers might, in fact, lose them money in the long run?

 

And no, I don't prescribe to the idea that Apple is just showing filmmakers they can trust Apple, because honestly, I'd trust them more if they gave a rising unknown money, and not known quantities like Ridley Scott or Martin Scorsese.

You think is absurd that they gave 200M to Scorsese so he can delivery a great movie, bring prestige to the service and win some awards. 
 

But you would like it better if they give 200M to an unknown filmmaker without any clue if even the movie will be good? This is not charity, they have interests doing this, is just not grossing 700M on box office.
 

And when it comes to Disney most people are celebrating because they’re mostly the responsible for many of our current problems when it comes to diversity in types of movies and now they can’t even bring good movies out of this situation.

 

 

[Issac Newton]

2 minutes ago, M37 said:

 

 

So $2.1M Wed & Thu, $2.62M TFri ... yeah don't see Godzilla getting to $10M OW from here. Should be around $9M (+/- $0.5M) depending on how Saturday does relative to TFri

Let's see (⁠゜⁠o⁠゜⁠;

 

[XXR & Friends]

19 minutes ago, MysteryMovieMogul said:

At what point can we admit that Apple's gamble on filmmakers might, in fact, lose them money in the long run?

 

The day they started making films. When did anyone think it would be anything else but a money loser?

[M37]

7 minutes ago, Jake4 said:

But for this week post thanksgiving, the record OW is 24m with The Last Samurai. So it has never been a huge week anyways and beyonce releasing it this was a risk but her fans still showed up.

This weekend isn't a risk, it just a poor spot to release a film for legs purposes: generally weaker sure, but also missing out on the TG holiday bonus, and too early in December that by the time Christmas rolls around its going to be losing screens to fresher releases. But for a film of this nature, where there's going to be a fan rush and huge drop after no matter when it is dated, that's not really a consideration

 

(Same applies to Godzilla Minus One fwiw, though one should have gone next week so they both got the full PLF treatment rather than having to share)

[Cookson]

I mean -1 has more showings than yesterday and they’re all selling pretty good around me. 10m seems definitely in play. Let that WOM spread. 

[Arlborn]

14 minutes ago, filmlover said:

It's going to be unfortunate if December ends up just as weak as November or worse (and to be truly honest, it looks like it might) because looking at the schedule for the first few months of the year, we're going to be in for quite a dry spell (the most high-profile release during the January/February corridor being...Madame Web, I guess? Yikes).

Movie theaters really need Wonka and Aquaman to be well received… Otherwise this might really become a bloodbath where everyone in the industry loses. And that’s not good for the audience in the long run either.

[Issac Newton]

Animal

 

North America Premieres + Day 1 Reported Gross: $2,777,563 (680 Locs)

 

USA - $1,988,854

Canada - $785,763

 

Hindi - $2,389,540

Telugu - $384,724

Tamil - $3,299

[Cookson]

At the moment -1 is just running to next Thursday. My question is, with the state of the box office, and with this particular film doing pretty good and has good wom.. wouldn’t it be odd for Toho to not extend its run? There’s nothing to lose 

[Arlborn]

5 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

You think is absurd that they gave 200M to Scorsese so he can delivery a great movie, bring prestige to the service and win some awards. 
 

But you would like it better if they give 200M to an unknown filmmaker without any clue if even the movie will be good? This is not charity, they have interests doing this, is just not grossing 700M on box office.
 

And when it comes to Disney most people are celebrating because they’re mostly the responsible for many of our current problems when it comes to diversity in types of movies and now they can’t even bring good movies out of this situation.

 

 

Disney should really be giving more movies to someone like Gareth Edwards, for example. Reliable filmmakers who can do well in a studio system and keeping to realistic budgets.

[filmlover]

Saltburn looking at the smallest drop for the weekend with 15% according to Deadline. Having seen it, I can guarantee that it's going to have a very long shelf life once it becomes available for streaming when the Internet will go crazy over the most batshit insane scenes in the movie.

[M37]

4 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

Let's see (⁠゜⁠o⁠゜⁠;

 

Gitesh projecting weekend total from early numbers

 

[Brainbug]

11 minutes ago, M37 said:

 

 

So $2.1M Wed & Thu, $2.62M TFri ... yeah don't see Godzilla getting to $10M OW from here. Should be around $9M (+/- $0.5M) depending on how Saturday does relative to TFri

 

It most likely will play out as you say here, but i do think that theres one possible saving grace for 10M: The WOM is stellar and at least looking at the Internet reception, it reminds me of Puss in Boots The Last Wish where many people checked it out only because of the WOM. Though of course, Godzilla is far more niche than an animated family movie, but i havent lost hope yet fpr double digits.

[ThomasNicole]

1 minute ago, Arlborn said:

Disney should really be giving more movies to someone like Gareth Edwards, for example. Reliable filmmakers who can do well in a studio system and keeping to realistic budgets.

Agreed, but sadly the vibe i’m getting is that they don’t know how to market these type of movies anymore. 
 

They’re marketing only IP’s with 200M budgets for well more than a decade now, they keep marketing these now but without managing to make people interested at this point. 
 

But they also lost touch in how to market normal movies, that along with audiences moviegoing habits being twisted after pandemic, financial crisis, VOD and streaming is making everything flops. 

[MysteryMovieMogul]

19 minutes ago, Kon said:

 

The thing is even if we assume Apple doesn't care about the box office, they were likely looking to win recognition or good reputation from the movies where they invested so much money.

 

In Napoleon's case, the reception hasn't been good. So, I really doubt the movie would work for Apple to generate good reputation.

There's still Argyle, and maybe that'll do amazing, but what I've seen so far looks... iffy. 

[interiorgatordecorator]

darn, silent night is lionsgate?

how much did it cost?