Christmas Weekend Thread | Xmas Day #s - Purple 18.1, Aqua 10.6, Wonka 10.3, Boys 5.7, Migration 5.4, Ferrari 2.9 | #BlackGirlMagic dominates the charts

[M37]

1 minute ago, Starphanluke said:

We're expectations for Aquaman so low that suddenly this is a good number? It's still heading for a rough opening weekend, whether it's just above Blue Beetle or not. Especially with those legitimately awful audience scores. 

But you can’t compare the OW’s directly because of the different seasons. From here, Aquaman 2 could potentially double BB (likely falls short, but in that range)

[filmlover]

That's actually a decent number for Anyone But You. Sydney Sweeney has some pull after all heh?

 

Respectable start for The Iron Claw as well.

Edited December 22, 2023 by filmlover

[Gavin Feng]

 

 

[Krissykins]

8 minutes ago, Starphanluke said:

We're expectations for Aquaman so low that suddenly this is a good number? It's still heading for a rough opening weekend, whether it's just above Blue Beetle or not. Especially with those legitimately awful audience scores. 

Yes, previews of $4m weren’t expected until just yesterday so $4.5m for most is a surprise. Release date legs probably take this to $110m+ domestic. 
 

The Marvels will keep its title for 2023. 

[Starphanluke]

5 minutes ago, M37 said:

But you can’t compare the OW’s directly because of the different seasons. From here, Aquaman 2 could potentially double BB (likely falls short, but in that range)

Well of course. I was just pointing that out since I saw some guessing it would have the lowest DCEU opening (or wait, does that belong to Shazam 2? I need to go check). But it's still awful compared to its predecessor and its budget.

[Starphanluke]

2 minutes ago, Gavin Feng said:

 

 

Considering I'm not expecting a great IM for Aquaman, I think it's got a legit shot of winning the weekend. 

[Bob Train]

Just now, Gavin Feng said:

 

 

So probably looking at a 43%-53% drop? Better than Jumanji TNL (55.6%), despite Christmas Eve guaranteeing a worse Sunday hold (fell on a Tuesday in 2019). Although, Aquabro 2 is no TROS.

 

6x multi doable?

[JonathanMB]

Even with 600 more theaters, Anyone But You nearly doubling Iron Claw's preview numbers is honestly shocking to me - pretty much every theater I looked at over the last few days had Iron Claw selling well almost every Anyone But You showtime was a ghost town. Maybe the extra two days of previews are boosting that, but I'm still impressed. The same preview-to-weekend ratio as No Hard Feelings gets it to $8.4M for the weekend; its Sunday drop will be a lot more rough than that film, but that film was also weirdly preview-heavy, so maybe that all balances out.

[Cmasterclay]

Better than what expectations and tracking had for any of these four films tbh.

[Krissykins]

Anyone But You could potentially do $30m domestic, then be on digital in January and since it’s Sony - Netflix by Valentine’s Day? 
 

Could end up being quite a success. No Hard Feelings took 4 months to get to Netflix though. But that was a hit in cinemas, #1 on digital then #1 on Netflix. 

[Arlborn]

11 minutes ago, Gavin Feng said:

 

 

That total at 57.51M exceeds the 48-56M range @M37 had for the first week somewhere in its weekend thread. Does that mean it can break the 230M ceiling you gave for it back then?

[Grand Cine]

Good previews for all the movies , but i'm afraid of postrack exits because for Aquaman , Migration and Anyone but You , it's not good . Especially Aquaman because he has 3 Stars and 50% recommand , and for exemple The Flash had after Thursday Previews a 4 Stars and .% recommand .  We will see with the cinemascore this night .

 

PS : Very good hold for Wonka , it's better than i expecting , especially because of the list of PLF and Imax . I think he has a good chance to take the lead Saturday and Sunday

 

 

[WorkingonaName]

36 minutes ago, John Marston said:

The Marvels to remain the most embarrassing superhero flop after all?

They still need to shoot Captain America 4 again. 

[JonathanMB]

6 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Anyone But You could potentially do $30m domestic, then be on digital in January and since it’s Sony - Netflix by Valentine’s Day? 
 

Could end up being quite a success. No Hard Feelings took 4 months to get to Netflix though. But that was a hit in cinemas, #1 on digital then #1 on Netflix. 

 

I think four months is the standard theaters-to-Netflix timeframe for Sony, not sure they would speed that up for a Valentine's Day drop. If it reaches $8M for the weekend though, I would set my sights on $40M+, since even the mega-bomb Father Figures managed a 4.58 multiplier in 2017 from its horrible $3.3M opening weekend and terrible WOM. 

[Cmasterclay]

Impossible to draw any historical IM comps from this exact weekend layout because last time it happened was in 2006 and that might as well be ancient history, plus films released on Wednesday the 21st and a couple limited expansions on Christmas Day but that's it. That said, even nuclear grade bombs like Whitney Houston and Babylon managed 5x and 4.25x last year. If Iron Claw manages even 4m, it could get to 20m, and Anyone But You could easily hit 35-40 from 8m. That'd be very solid.

[Bob Train]

2 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Impossible to draw any historical IM comps from this exact weekend layout because last time it happened was in 2006 and that might as well be ancient history, plus films released on Wednesday the 21st and a couple limited expansions on Christmas Day but that's it. That said, even nuclear grade bombs like Whitney Houston and Babylon managed 5x and 4.25x last year. If Iron Claw manages even 4m, it could get to 20m, and Anyone But You could easily hit 35-40 from 8m. That'd be very solid.

Also in 2017. But most movies were dropping on Wednesday back then (Showman, WTTJ etc.)

Edited December 22, 2023 by Bob Train

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

Gonna go back in time to the beginning of the year and tell people that Ant-Man will be the third biggest CBM of the year*
 

 

*without saying how much it and the other CBMS do

[Cmasterclay]

2 minutes ago, Bob Train said:

Also in 2017. But most movies were dropping on Wednesday back then (Showman, WTTJ etc.)

Oops!! Good catch. The Wednesday openings threw me off. Well, that would portend more good news then.

[lorddemaxus]

2 minutes ago, AMC Theaters Enjoyer said:

Gonna go back in time to the beginning of the year and tell people that Ant-Man will be the third biggest CBM of the year*
 

 

*without saying how much it and the other CBMS do

Wouldn't have been that mind-boggling tbh. People were predicting that one to be big because it had Kang in it.

[WorkingonaName]

Going back in time to May 2022 to bet all my money on Black Adam being the highest grossing DC movie for the next 2 years.