Christmas Weekend Thread | Xmas Day #s - Purple 18.1, Aqua 10.6, Wonka 10.3, Boys 5.7, Migration 5.4, Ferrari 2.9 | #BlackGirlMagic dominates the charts

[TigerPaw]

8 minutes ago, AMC Theaters Enjoyer said:

Gonna go back in time to the beginning of the year and tell people that Ant-Man will be the third biggest CBM of the year*
 

 

*without saying how much it and the other CBMS do

Not surprisingly really. Everyone thought it would be the biggest as it had MCU's main villain introduced to the big screen...

[Napoleon]

I hope Aquaman at least beats The Flush

[CJohn]

Serve me some crow, that is great for Anyone But You.

[harrisonisdead]

50% recommend is pretty incredible for Aquaman, only a bit above Morbius' 47%

[Flip]

Probably won’t reach 100m

[keysersoze123]

I expect Aquaman to collapse really fast. Day 2 BO will tell the tale and probably mediocre Christmas day. 

 

That said walkups today will be good. I can even see 9m true friday. 

[BadOlCatSylvester]

So I just got out of Aquaman 2, and well...

That was an empty mess.  The first movie's ocean's worth of charm and earnestness is almost entirely absent. The story is incoherent and all over the place. They turned Arthur into a quip machine straight out of a bad Marvel movie. The effects are a noticeable downgrade over that first movie. And finally, the third act was among the most anticlimactic I've seen on film. As a big fan of James Wan's previous work I was massively let down here. But taking all the drama we've been hearing for well over a year now into account, I don't fully blame him. In the end, it's finally over. This blubbering mess of a franchise has finally been put to rest. And now DC can finally start to move on and forward with Gunn.

[John Marston]

41 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Impossible to draw any historical IM comps from this exact weekend layout because last time it happened was in 2006 and that might as well be ancient history, plus films released on Wednesday the 21st and a couple limited expansions on Christmas Day but that's it. That said, even nuclear grade bombs like Whitney Houston and Babylon managed 5x and 4.25x last year. If Iron Claw manages even 4m, it could get to 20m, and Anyone But You could easily hit 35-40 from 8m. That'd be very solid.

 

2017

[filmlover]

Currently unknown how much two extra days worth of previews (even if they were barely marketed) added to Anyone But You yesterday but also worth mentioning The Iron Claw had early showings on the 13th. And looking a few days ahead, Boys in the Boat had them on the 17th while Ferrari had some on the 20th. Really going the extra mile to boost these openings these days.

[M37]

1 hour ago, Arlborn said:

That total at 57.51M exceeds the 48-56M range @M37 had for the first week somewhere in its weekend thread. Does that mean it can break the 230M ceiling you gave for it back then?

To be clear, it is not now nor never was a hard ceiling. But it does raise the expected range, as I was using a 3.75-4.25x the first week 

 

With that said, Thursday seeing a slight decrease from Wed does lean me more towards the middle than the high end, as that projects more to a teens rather than $20M+ weekend, which is really the number that matters in extrapolating over the holidays and beyond 

[TwoMisfits]

So, they made Aquaman a kid/mom GA movie vs a fan movie?

 

"General audiences in Comscore/Screen Engine PostTrak exits did not like Aquaman 2 with 3 stars last night and a 50% recommend, and that’s the time when the big fans shows up. Ugh. However, parents gave it 5 stars (slightly more moms at 51%) and kids under 12 gave it 4 stars (66% boys), so perhaps they save this movie in the end."

 

https://deadline.com/2023/12/box-office-aquaman-and-the-lost-kingdom-migration-color-purple-1235680766/

 

Edit to Add: Seems to repeat for Migration...

 

"nor are audiences with PostTrak scores of 4 1/2 stars for parents and 5 stars for kids under 12. General moviegoers didn’t have the patience for this Benjamin Renner and Guylo Homsy directed animated film about ducks at 3 1/2 stars and 51%."

Edited December 22, 2023 by TwoMisfits

[elcaballero]

Haven't been following it super closely, but some of these numbers look a whole lot better than I was expecting.

[VanillaSkies]

2 hours ago, Krissykins said:

Anyone But You could potentially do $30m domestic, then be on digital in January and since it’s Sony - Netflix by Valentine’s Day? 
 

Could end up being quite a success. No Hard Feelings took 4 months to get to Netflix though. But that was a hit in cinemas, #1 on digital then #1 on Netflix. 

I think digital for Valentine’s Day and then Netflix release in the summer makes more sense. It’s got a 2 week runways now of Christmas holidays and then will likely hold decently through January without much product coming out. No Hard Feelings had some nice drops and I think this one can too. 

[keysersoze123]

Raw ticket numbers for Wonka is just 25% below Aquabro 2.but ATP wise Aquabro is way ahead. But I feel this gap will go down tomorrow and probably Wonka will take the lead starting Sunday or so. 

[MysteryMovieMogul]

People on this website are still trying to argue with me that Migration and Aquaman 2 aren't actually doing that bad, so I'm very cynical about the future of moviegoing if people are still living in a fantasy world about this December not being too bad.

[filmlover]

6 minutes ago, MysteryMovieMogul said:

People on this website are still trying to argue with me that Migration and Aquaman 2 aren't actually doing that bad, so I'm very cynical about the future of moviegoing if people are still living in a fantasy world about this December not being too bad.

I mean, no one's actually arguing that they are doing especially well? Especially Aquaman, which seems headed for an especially nasty fall from its predecessor regardless the final outcome.

[MysteryMovieMogul]

3 minutes ago, filmlover said:

I mean, no one's actually arguing that they are doing especially well? Especially Aquaman, which seems headed for an especially nasty fall from its predecessor regardless the final outcome.

  

I mean, this is what someone replied to me in the Aquaman 2 thread:

2 hours ago, Bob Train said:

Aquabro 2 is easily gonna outgross Marvels as it is doing much better in OS and will have better legs.

 

Migration is already overperforming in walk-ups and will open larger than Puss 2 for the 3-day. And the $70m budget makes it pretty much impossible for it to lose much money...

[Porthos]

3 hours ago, Ezen Baklattan said:

Does Porthos have a deal with the devil or something? Damn…

 

*looks at baseball news coming out of SoCal the last couple of weeks*

 

No comment. 

[Bob Train]

3 minutes ago, MysteryMovieMogul said:

  

I mean, this is what someone replied to me in the Aquaman 2 thread:

I mean…Am I wrong though? Aquabro is doing much better than Marvels overseas. Still a huge bomb though.

 

And Migration low budget makes it hard to truly be a money-loser. 

[titanic2187]

All newcomers seem to have better than expected preview but I hope this isn't a prelude to a bad actual weekend grosses. I know the weekend bump won't be strong this weekend but at least should be healthy or comparable to pre-Covid level.