Han and Eric's Doom and Gloom/Controversial Predictions of 2024

[filmlover]

It Ends With Us was halfway through filming when it shut down during the strikes and there has been no news as to when the shoot will resume. A delay from its current February date is inevitable.

 

4 hours ago, poweranimals said:

What about Miller's Girl?

It looks trashy in the "leftover from the 90s" variety and wasn't on the schedule until a few weeks ago. Obvious January dump is obvious.

[babz06]

5 hours ago, CJohn said:

I didn't realized how bad January and February looked. Studios only scheduled movies for the holiday weekends and nothing else. Wild. It Ends With Us is clearly gonna get pushed. I am not sure Madame Web makes the date either but Sony is certainly gonna try considering how barren the marketplace will be. Are theaters even getting to Dune at this point?

January looks weak on paper but it’s not like it was stronger this year. M3gan and Avatar saved Jan and it seems like Mean Girls and holiday leftovers will do the same in 2024. 
 

Feburary will be hugely down though because of the absence of a blockbuster. Madame Web is gonna flop.  Feb 2023 had Ant-Man. 

Edited December 26, 2023 by babz06

[emoviefan]

26 minutes ago, babz06 said:

January looks weak on paper but it’s not like it was stronger this year. M3gan and Avatar saved Jan and it seems like Mean Girls and holiday leftovers will do the same in 2024. 
 

Feburary will be hugely down though because of the absence of a blockbuster. Madame Web is gonna flop.  Feb 2023 had Ant-Man. 

When quantamania box office  run is looked at fondly. Yikes. But compared to how Feb 2024 is looking yep.  Maybe Argyle will surprise us all. Not holding my breath at this point.

[poweranimals]

6 hours ago, CJohn said:

 I am not sure Madame Web makes the date either but Sony is certainly gonna try considering how barren the marketplace will be. Are theaters even getting to Dune at this point?

Why wouldn't they? The less competition the better.

[Maggie]

DUNE 2 over 100M opening weekend is my not so crazy prediction for March

[Eric Prime]

March 1

Dune Part Two: Finally, some good fucking food. While not necessarily universally beloved, Denis’ first film is still well-regarded and brought in tons of new fans to the property who have likely gone on to read the books in anticipation for its follow-up. I know I have. Plus, it basically has all of March to itself, Timothee is fresh off the Wonka buzz, there's nothing else out to watch. It’s still too insular and cerebeal to really break out and do bonkers blockbuster numbers, and Quorum numbers are a bit shaky, but it should still be comfortably above the last movie. Songbirds and Snakes numbers feel about right all things considered. 55/170 (3.09x)

[Eric Prime]

March 8

Cabrini: Angel Studios movies do about 10M apiece, so I guess that sounds about right for this one. 4/13 (3.25x)

 

Imaginary: Saw the trailer for this and it looked pretty dumb and cliched. Even with Blumhouse connections, this just seems like a movie that will get lost in the shuffle, and the director does not inspire confidence. Add on poor Quorum metrics, and we'll all forget this even existed after a couple months. 8/18 (2.25x)

 

Kung Fu Panda 4: The franchise never became that huge since the first movie, but the movies have been on every streaming service under the sun for years and is still a fairly recognizable name amongst nostalgic Gen Zers and kids today. The Universal marketing machine is also a strong one, especially for animated movies. It’s not going that huge, since kids don’t care about movie theaters anymore, but this should get close to stuff like Puss in Boots 2 or Sing 2 off of being a nostalgic toy commercial. Kung Fu Panda 3 adjusts to 175M, so let’s go slightly below that. 50/165 (3.3x)

[Eric Prime]

March 22

Arthur the King: Mark Wahlberg's starpower will help it a bit, and there's always a market for these cheesy dog movies, but with Lionsgate delivering more misses than hits and non-NTCs still struggling to find success, I don't expect much out of this. Definitely not as much as Channing Tatum's Dog. 8/33 (4.12x)

[Eric Prime]

March 29

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire: Afterlife was well-liked, but I feel like it was more in the Shazam/Captain Marvel camp where people thought it was fine, but it didn’t really get anybody all that excited or hyped for another one. And the new trailer hasn’t really moved the needle when it comes to The Quorum. If anything, having a winter-themed movie play in the Spring like this might actually kind of ding it a bit. It's like if Frozen came out on Arbor Day. This will only appeal to the diehard fans and Sony has another dead franchise once again. Oh well. 35/88 (2.51x)

 

Mickey 17: The lack of promo on this compared to all the other WB spring movies means this is getting a delay, or this is Bong's first dud and WB's trying to bury it. Either way...well, it’s not a nostalgic toy commercial. 13/35 (2.69x)

[Eric Prime]

Wow. Even with two guaranteed hits, this month will still suck. Theaters are screwed, aren’t they?

[CJohn]

My crazy prediction for Dune 2 is 90/305

[DAJK]

22 minutes ago, CJohn said:

My crazy prediction for Dune 2 is 90/305

It’s CJohn we’re talking about so my hunch is that this is a DOM/WW prediction.

[CJohn]

12 minutes ago, DAJK said:

It’s CJohn we’re talking about so my hunch is that this is a DOM/WW prediction.

DOM OW/DOM Total.

 

WW I see 1B potential but for now I am predicting 850M+.

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

34 minutes ago, CJohn said:

DOM OW/DOM Total.

 

WW I see 1B potential but for now I am predicting 850M+.

 

Do I have the club for you!

 

 

Edited December 27, 2023 by AMC Theaters Enjoyer

[CaptainJackSparrow]

Maybe the new Ghostbusters should move up to February? At least then the frozen/winter connection would be much stronger. Plus, that move could help theaters during the dry month.

[Brainbug]

Damn, reading this so far made me realize truly how much of a WASTELAND the first 3 months of 2024 are.

 

Like, studios should just re-release some classic movies constantly in January and February especially. Whats there to loose? Just give Lord of the Rings, Harry Potter, (the first 3) Pirates of the Caribbean, Jurassic Park, Star Wars, Titanic etc etc another go around, it could at least ease the pain somewhat.

[WrathOfHan]

March 1

 

Dune: Part Two: We're very much coming for a big increase here. This was poised to be the movie event of Q4 2023 if not for the strike, and now it'll have to settle for the film of Q1 2024. There's already pent up demand with the delay, and the barren schedule will only fuel sales to Dune in March. I would not be surprised if this pulls a Spider-Verse and has an increase of nearly 3x the original's opening weekend, but I'll go conservative for now. 75/225 (3x)

 

 

[WrathOfHan]

March 8

 

Kung Fu Panda 4: Dreamworks sequels as of late haven't quite been struggling but are not generating enough buzz and interest as the studio did even a decade ago. Having been 8 years since the last Kung Fu Panda, its prospects are a bit unpredictable. The franchise has historically seen diminishing returns domestically in favor of higher international skews, which I expect continue. Older audience turnout will make or break the gross, especially if a newer Dreamworks franchise like Trolls is inching across 100M. I just don't think the nostalgia is there for another installment. 20/80 (4x)

 

Imaginary: Unlike Night Swim, this has time to generate buzz for Blumhouse and starts the first film in a Lionsgate partnership. If it's at least decent, being the first horror film since January could help fuel a mini-breakout. 14/42 (3x)

 

Cabrini: Angel Studios film? Angel Studios gross. 5/15 (3x)

[WrathOfHan]

March 22

 

Arthur the King: Dog movies were already petering out pre-pandemic with three in 2019. Are we sure audiences are coming back in 2024 for a Mark Wahlberg dog pic? The film will struggle to bring in anyone under the age of 40, and older demos still aren't back in full force to theaters. 6/18 (3x)

[WrathOfHan]

March 29

 

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire: Afterlife managed to defy pessimistic expectations following lengthy pandemic delays and benefitted from a surprisingly weak fall slate in 2021. Frozen Empire finds itself in a similar spot with Dune in its 5th weekend and the next big blockbuster two weeks out. It should have no issue staying in theaters until mid-May if not Memorial Day with how barren the schedule is, which can help legs. 30/100 (3.33x)

 

Mickey 17: Yeah, this definitely isn't coming out in March. Talk to me when WB finds a new date for it.