WEEKEND THREAD | Wonka 14.4, Night Swim 12, Aqua 10.6, Migration 10.2, Anyone But You 9.5 (increased from last weekend!)

[dallas]

All things considered, WB had a damn good second half of the year. They have a decent chance at winning 2024 too. 

[Grand Cine]

The good test for Anyone But You is next weekend :

 

i don't know which percentage of colleges are out this coming week but i think the holds will be good and better than the rest of movies

 

the + :

 

- With the best hold two weekend in a row and with only one million dollars of difference between Night Swim ( excluded previews) and ABY , i think he could have the best hold for screens next weekend

- I saw the hold for movies last year and movies in the top 20 which declined with more of 50% are the movies which are the same which lost a lot of screens and theaters . The worst hold after them is M3GAN with a -39% decline and - 34% without previews  so i don't think the decline will be big

 

The - :

 

- The impact of Mean Girls which have the same target

- The attention about Mean Girls can lost a lot of attention from ABY and to have a more decline than usual

- The theaters could change the screens of ABY on Mean Girls due to the fact that the movie have the same target and with this the same target for times to go see

 

Conclusion :

 

I think ABY will have a good hold but not as other weekend ( logical) , i think he will have a 30-35% decline like M3GAN last year

 

[LegendaryBen]

18 minutes ago, Grand Cine said:

I think ABY will have a good hold but not as other weekend ( logical) , i think he will have a 30-35% decline like M3GAN last year

 

30-35% decline (4-day or 3-day weekend)?

[VanillaSkies]

2 hours ago, Grand Cine said:

 

Aquaman 2 is number two this weekend ( if the estimates holds) and two movies ,this weekend, surpass the 100M Mark . Migration will be the last movie of 2023 to surpass this mark

 
Not necessarily.

Dark Horse ABY has a small shot, especially if it can stay in a decent amount of theatres for Valentine’s Day (or if Sony is really smart, they release an extended cut with extra scenes). Even with Mean Girls next weekend, it’s got a long weekend to cushion the blow, and then weeks of little to no competition. It’s also playing well mid-week. Like I said, a long shot but it is still possible.

[dallas]

 

[Agafin]

18 minutes ago, dallas said:

 

Hopefully he updates this everyday, would be quite interesting to follow.

[emoviefan]

1 hour ago, dallas said:

All things considered, WB had a damn good second half of the year. They have a decent chance at winning 2024 too. 

On paper the lineup of films they have for the year  looks pretty dam good. Let's hope most of them deliver. 

[dallas]

Saw this comment on Reddit regarding the comparisons between Aquabro 2 and Black Adam and I'm gonna repost it here because I totally agree.

 

"For all of the people here that keep saying that Black Adam didn't have a China release.

 

Black Adam also didn't have the baggage of bieng released after the the absolute Triple disaster of Shazam 2, Flash and Blue Beetle.

 

Black Adam also didn't have to deal with the fact that the DCEU was declared dead before it's release and a whole new slate new DC films were already announced.

 

Black Adam also didn't have to deal with a diminished Marketing Campaign like Aquaman 2.

 

And Black Adam had less competition than Aquaman 2.

 

So I would argue they even each other out."

[Speedorito]

9 minutes ago, dallas said:

Saw this comment on Reddit regarding the comparisons between Aquabro 2 and Black Adam and I'm gonna repost it here because I totally agree.

 

"For all of the people here that keep saying that Black Adam didn't have a China release.

 

Black Adam also didn't have the baggage of bieng released after the the absolute Triple disaster of Shazam 2, Flash and Blue Beetle.

 

Black Adam also didn't have to deal with the fact that the DCEU was declared dead before it's release and a whole new slate new DC films were already announced.

 

Black Adam also didn't have to deal with a diminished Marketing Campaign like Aquaman 2.

 

And Black Adam had less competition than Aquaman 2.

 

So I would argue they even each other out."

Can we please keep Reddit “analyses” on Reddit please? It’s like an infection.

[babz06]

1 hour ago, JonathanMB said:

 

 

ABY had the third best PTA of all the wide releases this weekend, so I'll be surprised if it loses more than a couple hundred theaters next weekend, if even.

I don’t think it’ll be a huge theater drop but it’s a tough to see it jumping to 2nd place as some people have suggested. Especially when it has the most direct competition coming from Mean Girls. But anything is possible I guess. 

[Eric Prime]

 

Bradley Cooper's going down.

[TMP]

15 minutes ago, Eric Owns Mickey Mouse said:

Bradley Cooper's going down.

Is he really the favourite to win? Over Murphy? Lmfao

[WorkingonaName]

Cooper should win.

[Valonqar]

5 minutes ago, TMP said:

Is he really the favourite to win? Over Murphy? Lmfao

 

he's not. Pundits favor Giamatti. For the Oscars. No idea about Globes.

Edited January 7 by Valonqar

[CoolioD1]

20 minutes ago, Eric Owns Mickey Mouse said:

 

Bradley Cooper's going down.

Giamatti would have this in the bag. rhino strength.

[Speedorito]

6 minutes ago, TMP said:

Is he really the favourite to win? Over Murphy? Lmfao

He definitely wants to be the favorite.

[dallas]

35 minutes ago, Speedorito said:

Can we please keep Reddit “analyses” on Reddit please? It’s like an infection.

I don't think what I posted was unreasonable at all. You don't have to agree with what it says but that doesn't mean I can't post it here. 

[Speedorito]

2 minutes ago, dallas said:

I don't think what I posted was unreasonable at all. You don't have to agree with what it says but that doesn't mean I can't post it here. 

I didn’t say it was unreasonable or even that I don’t agree. I just don’t think we need updates (and copy/pasted random Reddit comments) on whatever random people from that cesspool think. Yesterday there was update about Reddit having backlash against Dune 2 because some of them don’t think it’ll be in the top 3 this year? Why do we need to know that?

 

Idk, if someone wants to know what randos on Reddit think, they can just…go to Reddit. And some of the Reddit dual-citizens here are kinda…persistent.

[Johnny Tran]

2 hours ago, DAJK said:

Just want to point out that we have 15(!) movies over 1M this weekend. Compared to last year this week, when we only had 8. 15th place was making 142k. 2022 this weekend had 8 movies over 1M, with 15th place making 190k.

Compare that to this weekend in 2020 (before Covid obviously) had 14 movies over a million, and 2019 had 17.

 

If for nothing else, this holiday has shown that depth has returned to the box office. We’ve seen that the market can sustain massive grosses (Spider-Man, Top Gun, Barbie, Avatar), and now we’ve seen it can support depth of the product exists. I would say that this is a good weekend for people like us who track this stuff. Shows signs of a healthy market.

 

Yeah I much prefer that the box office gross is split between a bunch of movies.  

[MovieMan89]

Boy and the Heron with that official 3x multi, only second time a wide opening anime has ever gotten there! And Ponyo’s OW wasn’t anywhere near as wide, so not that comparable.