WEEKEND THREAD | Wonka 14.4, Night Swim 12, Aqua 10.6, Migration 10.2, Anyone But You 9.5 (increased from last weekend!)

[M37]

33 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

 

Truly shocking that a very good looking actor with tons of charm and charisma and zero scandals or controversies has a pull with the audience even if his movie isn't that great. Likability goes a long way. Hey your movie isn't very good but I really like to hang out with you for 2 hrs at the cinema.

See also Reeves, Keanu

[Boxofficerules]

What a boring weekend.

[LegendaryBen]

1 minute ago, Boxofficerules said:

What a boring weekend.

Outside of Anyone But You (which will pass No Hard Feelings before Mean Girls release and may have a chance at 100m), yes.

[JonathanMB]

 

 

Should be on track for a sub-20% drop this weekend, looks like WOM is really starting to kick in. $35M+ final total?

[grim22]

6 hours ago, SchumacherFTW said:

Man single handedly made that movie watchable

There's 3 Fast X movies, one that Momoa is starring in and one that everyone else is in and that random movie which Vin Diesel is in where everything is super serious.

[Valonqar]

1 hour ago, M37 said:

See also Reeves, Keanu

 

Excellent example!

[ThePrinceIsOnFire]

Given that Wonka has been overestimated every single day after its opening weekend, so much that  last weekend's projections went down from 33 to the actual 28 milion, i wouldn't be surprised if:

1- Night Swim goes on to win the weekend by an hair

2- Wonka fails to reach 200 M or ends up with a sub 5x multiplier (when people here where initially expecting it to make as much as 350-400 M).

Edited January 6 by ThePrinceIsOnFire

[DAJK]

5 minutes ago, ThePrinceIsOnFire said:

Given that Wonka has been overestimated every single day after its opening weekend, so much that  last weekend's projections went down from 33 to the actual 28 milion, i wouldn't be surprised if:

1- Night Swim goes on to win the weekend by an hair

2- Wonka fails to reach 200 M or ends up with a sub 5x multiplier (when people here where initially expecting it to make as much as 350-400 M).

Nobody was “expecting” that at all (maybe 1-2 “out there” posts) but the vast VAST majority of people here have been in the 200-300 range ever since OW, and most of those are squarely in the 225-270 range. Not sure what you’re trying to accomplish here.

[Issac Newton]

 

 

[M37]

5 minutes ago, ThePrinceIsOnFire said:

Given that Wonka has been overestimated every single day after its opening weekend, so much that  last weekend's projections went down from 33 to the actual 28 milion, i wouldn't be surprised if:

1- Night Swim goes on to win the weekend by an hair

2- Wonka fails to reach 200 M or ends up with a sub 5x multiplier (when people here where initially expecting it to make as much as 350-400 M).

I think some projections have failed to grasp that Wonka isn’t a true family movie - like Migration for example - so it has higher weekdays from adult audiences that don’t translate into the same weekend values  

 

I still have it over $200M, but more like ~$210M than $220M+ 

[TwoMisfits]

16 hours ago, MovieMan89 said:

I’ve had a few people tell me now that Aquabro was enjoyable solely for Momoa… I may have underestimated the appeal he can have (esp with females) 

 

He does carry the movie - he has all the "fun" and best lines, on top of his normal appeal.  He sells the movie, almost single-handedly.

[ThePrinceIsOnFire]

11 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Nobody was “expecting” that at all (maybe 1-2 “out there” posts) but the vast VAST majority of people here have been in the 200-300 range ever since OW, and most of those are squarely in the 225-270 range. Not sure what you’re trying to accomplish here.

I'm not trying to accomplish anything other than what I've written, this whole "agenda" thing is getting quite tiring, let's just stick to what is written please. That being said, if you go back in the old threads  you will find plenty of posters who believed that a 10x multiplier was in sight for Wonka. Even a 300 M range prediction would be way off, just like the 225-270 range that you speak of, which is too large of portion to even make it a dicussion (a 55 M gap in between the upper and the lower end or a +- 20% is not exactly being accurate).  It will end up in the 200-220 M range by the way things are going, but it's not out of the ralm of possibilities that it could miss 200. 

Edited January 6 by ThePrinceIsOnFire

[JonathanMB]

 

 

A weekend IM like Ferdinand in 2018 gets to to $10M for the weekend, while an IM like The last Wish last year gets it to $11.88M. Should give an idea of how well it can hold over the next couple months.

[Kon]

 

[AniNate]

I said before that you're far more likely to see a 10x multiplier from a movie you don't expect it from, and people definitely didn't expect it from Anyone But You

[Kon]

 

[Borobudur]

10 minutes ago, JonathanMB said:

 

 

A weekend IM like Ferdinand in 2018 gets to to $10M for the weekend, while an IM like The last Wish last year gets it to $11.88M. Should give an idea of how well it can hold over the next couple months.

If the movie start holding up like Ferdinand from here, Migration will finish at 96m.....but Ferdinand got hit over MLK weekend and Migration is one week "younger" than Ferdinand at this point, that should let Migration to hold up better than that. 

[JonathanMB]

4 minutes ago, Kon said:

 

 

Good solid numbers for all of these, particularly American Fiction. Distributors have been scared of doing slower expansions post-COVID, but it seems to be working well for it so far. I wonder how they plan on timing its wide release, since the movie seems to have momentum but we're still over two weeks away from the Oscar nominations. 

[AniNate]

I'm thinking Migration will land somewhere in between Sing 2 and Puss 2 as far as legs are concerned. I don't expect theaters will drop it as quickly as Ferdinand even if it does similarly collapse next week when school returns, and demand also doesn't seem as loaded towards the holiday season as Sing 2's was. 130mil would be my guess at this point where it ultimately ends up.

[filmlover]

Both American Fiction and All of Us Strangers are opening near me next weekend so they should be getting pretty substantial theater expansions. They're both doing well in limited release so far.