3/4-3/7 Weekdays Thread | Dune $7.3m Monday, $8.1m Tuesday, $6.6m Wednesday

[Brainbug]

1 minute ago, MysteryMovieMogul said:

Wow, if Wednesdays holds are as good a predicted, perhaps I do have to eat my words.

 

Season them with some spice

 

[BoxOfficeZ]

Say it stays flat Thursday for 6.5.

 

Batman comp: 

 

14.3 Friday

21.5 Sat

15 Sun

50.8m

 

Logan comp

 

13.6 (+109.8%)

21.4 (+57.3%)

15 (-29.8%)

50m

 

Captain Marvel

 

13.4 (+106%)

20.7 (+55%)

13.7 (-33.8%)

47.8m

 

I suspect the demand at high priced premium screens will dilute decreases and increases a tad, but who knows.

 

 

[ThomasNicole]

With 6.5M WED even if premium screens are boosting weekdays and ended up diluting the weekend, it should do at least 45M.

 

But someone posted presales for the weekend and honestly, it’s hella strong. Maybe this weekend will have worst walkups than OW, but there’s hardly strong reasons for this, and sales are already showing signs of +50M for the weekend. The weekdays are simply corroborating. I’ll be happy with a drop in the 40’s but i think 30’s is a very doable possibility at this point.
 

I think this can cross 200M by next Sunday on 3rd weekend. In that case, +250M would be locked and 300M hard but not totally out of question.

[TwoMisfits]

2 hours ago, TMP said:

This thing's hitting $300m. It's broken into the zeitgeist like a $300m performer does

 

I've stuck to $325M DOM even during OW.  Nothing I've seen so far has dissuaded me from that number.

[Daxtreme]

Wow that would be an epic jump for a sequel. To go from $100M Domestic to $300M+ is... well, not something you see very often

[von Kenni]

1 hour ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

$51M for a 38% drop on the weekend would be awesome to see for Dune Part 2. I think anything above $44M (46% drop) would be a great result. 

Amazing numbers. The more we have spice, the more we want it. I'd be happy anything under 55% drop but looks like we're heading waay below that.

 

[redfirebird2008]

14 minutes ago, von Kenni said:

Amazing numbers. The more we have spice, the more we want it. I'd be happy anything under 55% drop but looks like we're heading waay below that.

 

Yep, anything below 50% is pretty damn good for these book adaptation movies that have a long history behind them. Usually the fanbase causes a lot of frontloading. Would be epic if this movie can go below 40% on the weekend drop. 

[MikeQ]

I'm not surprised that Dune Part Two appears to be developing some strong legs (though it's early). What a genuine cinematic achievement. Together with Part One, a fantastical story of morality, culture, greed and power. Visually stunning, no doubt, but also it flows exceptionally well. And what a cast.

 

It is gratifying seeing films like Oppenheimer, Barbie and Dune - from singular artists with their own points of view - killing it at the box office. More of this, please!

 

Peace,

Mike

Edited March 7 by MikeQ

[Bob Train]

Dune would need to make ≈2.7x it's first week to reach $300m. There are 121 films which have had a first week above $100m, of which only 6 have made >2.7x their first weeks. They are Jungle Book (2.79x), Wonder Woman (2.79x), Inception (2.92x), Avatar 2 (3.46x), Top Gun 2 (3.50x), and Avatar (5.47x)

 

So 300m seems tough, and would need to follow Wonder Woman/Inception trajectory for that. But I think $260m-$280m is very much in play. Same first week/DOM ratio as Oppenheimer would put it at $284m. Joker $268m. 

[Porthos]

 

On 2/15/2024 at 3:12 PM, Porthos said:

*casually scans social media embargo lift for Dune: Part Two*

 

 

 

  Reveal hidden contents

I don't break out the "I have spoken" gif often, but got a real strong feeling about this one.

 

Might not be today, as mid-day drops can be weird on timing.  But, oh yes, a storm is coming.

 

Just sayin'...

Edited March 7 by Porthos

[Porthos]

26 minutes ago, Bob Train said:

Dune would need to make ≈2.7x it's first week to reach $300m. There are 121 films which have had a first week above $100m, of which only 6 have made >2.7x their first weeks. They are Jungle Book (2.79x), Wonder Woman (2.79x), Inception (2.92x), Avatar 2 (3.46x), Top Gun 2 (3.50x), and Avatar (5.47x)

 

So 300m seems tough, and would need to follow Wonder Woman/Inception trajectory for that. But I think $260m-$280m is very much in play. Same first week/DOM ratio as Oppenheimer would put it at $284m. Joker $268m. 

 

It's either gonna be under 225m or over 325m; I don't make the rules here, just remind folks about them once they've been made. 

 

And since it looks likely like it won't be under 225m...  

 

(yes yes, exceptions to every rule)

((lemme have my fun here, alright? ))

[dallas]

From sub-$200M doom & gloom to $300M+ predictions. This is why I love the box office. 

[Bob Train]

2 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

It's either gonna be under 225m or over 325m; I don't make the rules here, just remind folks about them once they've been made. 

 

And since it looks likely like it won't be under 225m...  

 

(yes yes, exceptions to every rule)

((lemme have my fun here, alright? ))

Inception multiplier would put it at $325m on the dot  

[charlie Jatinder]

6-6.25, more likely 6.

Also remember this is over indexing in Canada where weekdays hold are better than US. FRI jump is muted in CAN compared to US.

Edited March 7 by charlie Jatinder

[keysersoze123]

24 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

6-6.25, more likely 6.

Also remember this is over indexing in Canada where weekdays hold are better than US. FRI jump is muted in CAN compared to US.

Canada is still tiny % of overall weekend for big movies. Later in the run they make bigger difference as movies are leggier in Canada. 

[Daxtreme]

34 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

6-6.25, more likely 6.

Also remember this is over indexing in Canada where weekdays hold are better than US. FRI jump is muted in CAN compared to US.

 

crumbling, under 200M confirmed right

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

39 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

It's either gonna be under 225m or over 325m; I don't make the rules here, just remind folks about them once they've been made. 

 

And since it looks likely like it won't be under 225m...  

 

(yes yes, exceptions to every rule)

((lemme have my fun here, alright? ))

I know I said this on the weekend thread already but oh my god my club might actually stand a chance.

[BoxOfficeZ]

8.1 to 6 would be a 25% drop, a bit heavier than Batman's 21%. Hopefully it's leaning more towards 6.25

 

I'd be okay with anything less than a 50% drop for the second weekend. Just want it to beat the first movie's OW. 

[charlie Jatinder]

2 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

6-6.25, more likely 6.

Also remember this is over indexing in Canada where weekdays hold are better than US. FRI jump is muted in CAN compared to US.

6.5

[BoxOfficeZ]

Okay I definitely like 6.5 more than 6. Very good Wednesday number. Thursday might stay flat.