3/08-3/10 Weekend Estimates : KFP 4 : 58,3M , Dune 2 : 46,3M , Imaginary : 10M , Caprini : 7,6M

[kayumanggi]

4 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

I don't know and don't see why it matters. Like I said, the other ones are pre-verified. 82% verified is already worse than that pre-verified era 74.

 

I hope it doesn't really matter in the grand scheme of things because I thought it was a good movie and the WOM is generally positive at least on social media.

[JonathanMB]

3 minutes ago, Boxofficerules said:

Not even $1 million for Imaginary, that good or bad?

 

It;s only the second horror film of the last three films after Night Swim, which pulled in $1.45 million from previews, so it seems pretty bad to me. Man the market is starved for a solid horror flick. Neon really needs to go all-out with Immaculate, with Sydney Sweeney mania at a fever pitch it could be a rare bonafide breakout for them.

Edited March 8 by JonathanMB

[Bob Train]

17 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

Good lord, the audience RT for panda is fucking dreadful.

It has no competition so it will have good legs regardless of WOM.

[Grand Cine]

 

[vafrow]

14 minutes ago, Eric Atreides said:

Depends on how fan-driven these previews are (though are there really many Dreamworks Adults willing to see Kung Fu Panda 4 right away?), but this could get to 60M if it really plays like a Trolls 3/Migration-style family movie.

 

My sample had over a third of sales be for late evening shows. I think that speaks to a pretty big contingent being older fans. For context, Wonka only had 17%. Aquaman was only 20%.

 

A short run time helps, and I don't have comps for other similar films like Trolls 3, but I think this ended up grabbing people who were fans of the original that are older now.

 

 

[kayumanggi]

1 minute ago, Grand Cine said:

 

 

ERC must have rounded it down again. 🤣

[kayumanggi]

 

[elhassane31]

Panda really did wake the heck up. Since 50M is more or less guaranteed, let's see if it can hit 60M now.

Edited March 8 by elhassane31

[TheFlatLannister]

Yeah Panda is blowing up. That's an absurd level of walkups 

[Eric Prime]

8 minutes ago, Borobudur said:

I don't really know spring IM works, but seeing all people projecting a 45-50m OW for Panda, isn't it weirdly high? That would need 12x-13x IM, an especially high IM, and the movie "only" scored 82% RT audience score. 

Using spring and fall IMs for post-COVID kids movies...

 

Addams Family 2: 31.5x

Ron's Gone Wrong: 30.42x

Sonic 2: 11.357x

The Bad Guys: 20.83x

Lyle, Lyle Crocodile: 19.83x

Trolls Band Together: 23.08x

 

Even something like Sonic, which has way more of an upfront demand lean on it, just barely misses 12x. Can't think of any reason why Kung Fu Panda would trend worse than that.

[BadOlCatSylvester]

Wow, that's very impressive for Panda 4, especially when you take the lukewarm reception and nonexistent buzz into account. And Dune 2's Thursday hold is fantastic. We're in for the most lucrative weekend we've had in ages.

[PlatnumRoyce]

7 hours ago, JustLurking said:

The other ones are all pre-verified. 82% start on verified audience for a kids film is simply dismal.

It's not good but when I looked at the first 20 months or so of vRT scores against posttrak/cinemascore I found kids movies had the largest point of divergence. The obvious problem is that kids don't rate the films online but are a significant part of the film's "real" word of mouth reception. Of course, if this is drawing out an "older" audience of people who saw the earlier films as kids that objection would be weaker.

Edited March 8 by PlatnumRoyce

[ThomasNicole]

Feels like both will do 50M afterall 

 

Nice for theaters 

[ChipDerby]

Wow I can't believe releasing a kids movie when there are no other kids movies is actually working out!

[JustWatching]

1 hour ago, kayumanggi said:

So who's winning the weekend?

Theaters.

[elhassane31]

One thing to consider is that the RT verified audience score for Panda 4 comes from like 100 people. Not exactly vast enough to settle on audience reception. Maybe wait until it hits 1000 or something. Today is literally opening day lol.

Edited March 8 by elhassane31

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

As others have said, this weekend is the life we needed after the last two months.

[Starphanluke]

Nutty Thursday number for Dune. Sure looks like we are looking at two $50m+ movies this weekend. Finally a jolt of life at theaters.

[Boxofficerules]

41 minutes ago, ChipDerby said:

Wow I can't believe releasing a kids movie when there are no other kids movies is actually working out!

Being the only horror movie isn't working well for Imaginary.

[ChipDerby]

6 minutes ago, Boxofficerules said:

Being the only horror movie isn't working well for Imaginary.

 

Yeah everyone knows those two genres are the same.