3/08-3/10 Weekend Estimates : KFP 4 : 58,3M , Dune 2 : 46,3M , Imaginary : 10M , Caprini : 7,6M

[The Panda]

Glad to hear I am making a lot of money. I put a lot of work doing my own stunts for this film.

[Eric the Fall Guy]

3 minutes ago, The Panda said:

Glad to hear I am making a lot of money. I put a lot of work doing my own stunts for this film.

What's it like working with Jackie Chan and Angelina Jolie?

[eeetooki]

38 minutes ago, Eric Atreides said:

What's it like working with Jackie Chan and Angelina Jolie?

 

You should ask Jackie Chan and Angelina Jolie what's it like to work with such a majestic creature! Pandas are the superstars of China right now!

[M37]

Just for record, I am on the 50/50 train

 

Dune II

20 hours ago, M37 said:

Yes, Wed is just one day, but its the trendline that matters, and so it's time to recalibrate expectations

Still think Batman is the best comp for the short term, but have to adjust the ratio from Wed value. From here, a similar Thu-->Sun trajectory would be a ~$52M second weekend. The optimistic scenario from that (already impressive) value is that Dune II is going to be more weekend heavy than a CBM and/or with a stronger WOM push, goes to like $55M.  However, weekdays may also be inflated from extraordinary PLF demand, and we see a smaller Fri jump (like +100% instead of typical +120-125%), and $50M is not yet "L word" [and there should be no disappointment if it drops "only" 42% to like $48/$49M]

 

 

KFP4 is a bit trickier, as there is no great IM comp IMO. However, even at worst it should match Sonic 2's 12x (~$45M), but that also included some EA/PLF shows, so from True Thursday it was more in 13-14x range (~$49-$53M), and could see as high as 15-16x

True Friday is the big pivot point, expecting it to be in range of 4-4.5x Thursday ($15-$17M), followed by a typical animation (roughly) +30%/-30% Sat and Sun (so 3-3.3x TFri + previews)

[keysersoze123]

Morning MTC1 update

Fat Bear - 99377/818153 1424330.27 

Dune - 124406/757475 2253457.86 

 

There is no question Dune will finish comfortably higher but Panda ratios will be way lower. Let us see how things go. 

[Starphanluke]

11 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Morning MTC1 update

Fat Bear - 99377/818153 1424330.27 

Dune - 124406/757475 2253457.86 

 

There is no question Dune will finish comfortably higher but Panda ratios will be way lower. Let us see how things go. 

Sorry if this is a dumb question: by ratios, do you mean presales to total sales ratio?

[Krissykins]

RT audience score is a good indicator of cinemascore.

 

But the kids seeing Kung Fu panda won’t go on RT and vote, but they’ll contribute to the Cinemascore.  

[babz06]

Busiest weekend in months coming. 

[titanic2187]

I am actually quite curious Panda' Saturday increase. From the start of 2024, I just got a feeling Saturday increase has been stronger and "closer" to pre-pandemic norm but the lack of big opening is hard to test out my theory.  Last week Dune had a 41% Saturday increase from Fri, and that is an unusual strong first Saturday bump post-Covid that neither Batman, TGM, JW4 or Avatar 2 or GOTG3 got, and it is not like these movies are poorer received than Dune 2.  If Panda too posted stronger Sat bump than usual, that should set a healthy trend for 2024 as a sign of casual moviegoers are coming back indeed in bigger fashion. 

[keysersoze123]

15 minutes ago, Starphanluke said:

Sorry if this is a dumb question: by ratios, do you mean presales to total sales ratio?

No. MTC1 ratio to overall BO. 

[M37]

38 minutes ago, babz06 said:

Busiest weekend in months coming. 

If it gets to $133M in aggregate, will be highest grossing weekend since August 4 (over 7 months ago!), which had the  3rd weekend of Barbie/Oppy plus Meg 2 and TMNT

 

The other weekends over $111M in total in that time period were 10/27 (FNAF) and 10/13 (ERAS)

Edited March 8 by M37

[Starphanluke]

26 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

No. MTC1 ratio to overall BO. 

Ahhh that makes way more sense. Thank you.

[AniNate]

2 hours ago, Boxofficerules said:

Being the only horror movie isn't working well for Imaginary.

 

Horror audiences are seeing Dune. 5 year olds can't see anything else.

[The Panda]

2 hours ago, Eric Atreides said:

What's it like working with Jackie Chan and Angelina Jolie?

 

Jackie Chan was very impressed. He wanted to learn my moves.

[Shawn Robbins]

Early studio Fri projections, take at your own caution:

 

18.2-18.5 Panda

12.5ish Dune

3.8-4.0 Imaginary

[vafrow]

1 minute ago, Shawn Robbins said:

Early studio Fri projections, take at your own caution:

 

18.4 Panda

12.5 Dune

3.9 Imaginary

 

Is that true Friday, or are previews rolled into the Panda figure.

[cannastop]

5 minutes ago, Shawn Robbins said:

Early studio Fri projections, take at your own caution:

 

18.2-18.5 Panda

12.5ish Dune

3.8-4.0 Imaginary

that's a little disappointing for Dune 2 right? Now it can't make much more than $40 m 2nd weekend

[JustLurking]

5 minutes ago, Shawn Robbins said:

Early studio Fri projections, take at your own caution:

 

18.2-18.5 Panda

12.5ish Dune

3.8-4.0 Imaginary

Seems meh for Dune even knowing Charlie did say fri bump would be more muted due to Canada overindexing. Hoping actuals come higher or I have a fairly hard time seeing 50 happening.

[Minnale101]

Kung fu panda 3 had 10.4 million Friday (it didn’t have previews) which got too 41 million ow

 

obviously its early but a 18.2 - 18.5 million (14.5 - 14.8 million true Friday)

 

I am hyped 

 

this could do 55 million ow

[M37]

1 minute ago, cannastop said:

that's a little disappointing for Dune 2 right? Now it can't make much more than $40 m 2nd weekend

It would be if it holds, less than +100% from Thur. But last Friday didn’t have a great walk-up to presale ratio; that didn’t really kick in until Sat, so if they’re using that as a baseline, estimate likely winds up too low