Weekend Numbers | estimates | 45.2M GHOSTBUSTERS: FROZEN EMPIRE | 17.6M DUNE II | 16.8M KFP IV

[cannastop]

4 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Just for fun I took a smattering of movies from 2014, which btw at the time was considered a weak year at the box office.

 

Neighbors did 150m.

Lucy did 126m.

Noah did 101m.

Non-Stop did 92m.

The Imitation Game did 91m.

Fury did 85m.

The Other Woman did 83m.

The Grand Budapest Hotel did 59m. 

No Good Deed did 52m.

 

Look at those totals. Come on folks. You guys know none of those movies would have done even 25m domestic today except maybe Neighbors, which would have gone straight to Apple like Rogen's recent films, and maybe Budapest because Wes Power. And when they flopped, you know what people would have posted - "oh, of course a movie with those reviews/length/concept/stars flopped, they always would have!" But the fact is, they didn't always. Not remotely. And people who have been on these boards awhile just know that to be true. Which is why I think the Clays and CJohns and others of the world are more negative. 

I mean I agree but I don't know what exactly this is in response to.

[Cmasterclay]

Just now, emoviefan said:

I never said I was optimistic about the state of things. I don't like it either. I have been following box office for well over 30 years now so I don't need to go back and check the previous years. It sucks yes but sometimes I think it goes way overboard around here. Yes I know I can go somewhere else  if I don't like it.  so I will save you that retort. But 90% of the time I enjoy the conversation around here. Sometimes It just bugs me because there is there to much wallowing. i apologize my emotions get the better me also. I am not trying to gaslight or anything like that.

I'm sorry for being so emotional about it too, it just sucks when you're used to one thing and another happens. You're a good poster and I like your contributions, but I just have the mentality that we need to grapple with reality here. I don't view it as wallowing, is the thing.

[filmlover]

Wahlberg has never been a consistent draw and Arthur the King was pretty much dumped by the studio (given how long ago it was made, it's probably lucky it didn't go straight to streaming). It's no surprise it's not doing well.

[TwoMisfits]

24 minutes ago, Maggie said:

Yeah, this April's gonna be a wasteland. Studios' fault for not scheduling at least something interesting. I agree with your prediction for the above movies.

 

Gonna give March movies a chance for some nice late legs...the next 2 weeks should be very nice already for the March movie legs...and then the blockbusters probably hang around til May (looking at Dune, and less KFP4)...

Edited March 23 by TwoMisfits

[Cmasterclay]

2 minutes ago, cannastop said:

I mean I agree but I don't know what exactly this is in response to.

It's because of all the people saying things like Arthur The King and Immaculate would not have made money ever. Maybe. But we hear that line with every single movie of this size that struggles. And so I wanted to point out - these movies used to make money, all the time.

Edited March 23 by Cmasterclay

[Unfitclock]

@filmlover I know but dog films usually tend to do well in the us at least but it could be that Lionsgate just dumped it and people are not interested at all in it and also ghostbusters is taking a lot of the family audience so that could have something to do with it

[cannastop]

1 minute ago, Cmasterclay said:

It's because of all the people saying things like Arthur The King and Immaculate would not have made money ever. Maybe. But we hear that line with every single movie of this size that struggles. And so I wanted to point out - these movies used to make money, all the time.

oh sure sure, yeah those movies would have done a lot better 10 years ago.

 

Still we have the big budget cartoons which while they might have taken a hit, still can sell tickets.

[emoviefan]

6 minutes ago, Unfitclock said:

I mean we just had an original r-rated action film make over 100 million worldwide so it’s not that people just refuse to see smaller original films

And this is the thing. People choose what they want to see or not to see.  I am not going go down the rabbit hole of why Monkey Man will not do as well as The Beekeeper despite better reviews. Draw your own conclusions. 

[filmlover]

Non-Stop is definitely a straight to streaming release a decade later, the "Neeson unofficially remakes Taken in a different setting" action subgenre dried up a while back. Or is conceived as a vehicle for another actor. Michael B. Jordan, maybe?

[DAJK]

10 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Just for fun I took a smattering of movies from 2014, which btw at the time was considered a weak year at the box office.

 

Neighbors did 150m.

Lucy did 126m.

Noah did 101m.

Non-Stop did 92m.

The Imitation Game did 91m.

Fury did 85m.

The Other Woman did 83m.

The Grand Budapest Hotel did 59m. 

No Good Deed did 52m.

 

Look at those totals. Come on folks. You guys know none of those movies would have done even 25m domestic today except maybe Neighbors, which would have gone straight to Apple like Rogen's recent films, and maybe Budapest because Wes Power. And when they flopped, you know what people would have posted - "oh, of course a movie with those reviews/length/concept/stars flopped, they always would have!" But the fact is, they didn't always. Not remotely. And people who have been on these boards awhile just know that to be true. Which is why I think the Clays and CJohns and others of the world are more negative. 

We really did have it good in 2014. Looking back a decade later, it might be my favourite year movie-wise since I started “getting into movies” in 2012.

[Bob Train]

I still won't rule out $200m for KFP4. People also thought Migration would miss $100m in early January. No competition can do wonders for kids movie legs.

[TwoMisfits]

2 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

It's because of all the people saying things like Arthur The King and Immaculate would not have made money ever. Maybe. But we hear that line with every single movie of this size that struggles. And so I wanted to point out - these movies used to make money, all the time.

 

Only a few movies can make money at a time.

I think religious movies can only support 1 every 3 months or so.

I think family movies can only support 1 every 2 months or so, except in summer, when 1 a month is doable.

I think only 1 uber-big blockbuster a month can be supported, except in summer and at Christmas.

 

It's just the way it currently is.  There is a movie subscriber base that will see most things each and every week (save family, international, religious. and bad movies) and give a floor to many movies, but also a pretty hard ceiling.  And there's a GA that will go 2-5 times a year and sky 1-2 movies/year and help a few other movies go big, especially with reduced ticket price options or summer set ups (aka summer camp viewing).  But, only a few...

 

And that's where we are.  

[Unfitclock]

Arthur the king only dropped about 50 percent from its true Friday last week and they’re expecting it to drop about 50 percent this weekend that doesn’t really make sense

[emoviefan]

2 minutes ago, Bob Train said:

I still won't rule out $200m for KFP4. People also thought Migration would miss $100m in early January. No competition can do wonders for kids movie legs.

Yeah there are  no animated movies until Garfield on Memorial Day weekend. 

[TwoMisfits]

5 minutes ago, emoviefan said:

And this is the thing. People choose what they want to see or not to see.  I am not going go down the rabbit hole of why Monkey Man will not do as well as The Beekeeper despite better reviews. Draw your own conclusions. 

 

$5 GA tickets.  Empty schedule.  Those 2 things explain the entire difference.

[grim22]

3 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Non-Stop is definitely a straight to streaming release a decade later, the "Neeson unofficially remakes Taken in a different setting" action subgenre dried up a while back. Or is conceived as a vehicle for another actor. Michael B. Jordan, maybe?

 

Non Stop promotion was everywhere. One of the few times I can remember a Neeson movie being the primary pop culture focus the weekend of it's release

 

 

 

[filmlover]

Also I'm pretty sure No Good Deed will still be a cheap Screen Gems theatrical release even today. It just wouldn't star wildly overqualified actors for the material like Idris and Taraji.

[AniNate]

3 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

It's because of all the people saying things like Arthur The King and Immaculate would not have made money ever. Maybe. But we hear that line with every single movie of this size that struggles. And so I wanted to point out - these movies used to make money, all the time.

 

There's a difference between acknowledging the current reality and assuming that it can never get any better. That's where the line is for me with a lot of the box office dooming. Yes, right now these movies still struggle, but we are still in the post-pandemic environment where the audiences are gradually returning, and I think that's a reasonable context to evaluate box office performances now in. Granted, these last few months have not been exemplary of the kind of gradual improvement I'd like to see continue, and I'm not expecting April will be either given one of the biggest movies of last year opened at the beginning of that month, but there is a pretty robust slate of modest studio fare starting in May and continuing pretty much through the rest of the year, so I still think there's potential for this year to continue the upward trend.

[wildphantom]

3 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

$5 GA tickets.  Empty schedule.  Those 2 things explain the entire difference.

the £5 ticket showings for GB where I live are notably busier. 

[MrFanaticGuy34]

If KFP4 does at least get close to $200M DOM before Garfield arrives….i don’t see why Universal wouldn’t try to push it over there if it gets around $198-199M. It’s not like families are suddenly now avoiding it just so it could finish closer to the second film than the first film. 🤷🏻‍♀️
 

Heck, Illumination’s The Lorax got over that mark back in 2012, with lower reception though granted that was an original non-sequel animated film.