Weekend Numbers | estimates | 45.2M GHOSTBUSTERS: FROZEN EMPIRE | 17.6M DUNE II | 16.8M KFP IV

[Cmasterclay]

Just now, Maggie said:

Yeah, this April's gonna be a wasteland. Studios' fault for not scheduling at least something interesting. I agree with your prediction for the above movies.

These are all interesting movies that should be making money. In 2014 instead of 2024, at least three of them would have gone about 50m domestic. Unfortunately interesting movies and making money are pretty much mutually exclusive outside of Dune and Barbieheimmer so.

[emoviefan]

3 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Horrific weekend as expected, not going to pretend a couple of great reviewed horror movies ending up with like 8m and 4m in total gross is "great" because the studios. We all know they're gonna drop 80% next weekend and disappear on streaming forever. Whistling past the graveyard, folks. Even I, Mr. Complain About Streaming, skipped Love Lies Bleeding and Late Night With The Devil in theaters and am just waiting for streaming. It's just too easy and convenient now. They won. The death rattle for the non event films is going to be this April when Monkey Man (already unperforming dramatically per keyser) doesn't hit 15m and neither does Civil War, and Challengers and the Guy Ritchie both open to about 7m.

Okay. As one person said about Monkey Man  original revenge action movies very rarely break out big. . Even John Wick back in 2014 only opened to 14 million. Civil War is tracking to do 18-25 million opening weekend which for this type of movie would be great. Yeah the budget is high but that's A24's issue. Challengers who knows and Ministry is clearly being dumped by Lionsgate. 

[DAJK]

33 minutes ago, cannastop said:

That's a fine opinion to have but I think it's a little interesting how the narrative of "screwed over Pixar movies" generally overlooks Onward.

 

I ultimately think in a non-COVID world Onward, Luca, and Turning Red would be in the $200 m Dom area. Dunno about Soul though. I've heard takes that Soul would have been another Inside Out and I really don't know about that...

 

Also in real life Luca and TR could have been successes.

Luca and TR have very dedicated core fans, and I think they would have done decently in non-Covid environments (although I think they would have grossed closer to Elemental domestically). Soul is a great movie but I really have my doubts it could have been another Inside Out. It’s almost “too” adult and I don’t think families would have bought into it.

[filmnerdjamie]

 

[Maggie]

1 minute ago, emoviefan said:

Okay. As one person said about Monkey Man  original revenge action movies very rarely break out big. . Even John Wick back in 2014 only opened to 14 million. Civil War is tracking to do 18-25 million opening weekend which for this type of movie would be great. Yeah the budget is high but that's A24's issue. Challengers who knows and Ministry is clearly being dumped by Lionsgate. 

Yep, i was quite surprised by the Civil War tracking. It's pretty good. It should at least do 50M.

 

Challengers, i think an opening under 10M is a given. It just doesn't look appealing

[AniNate]

$50 mil is high by A24 standards but a $20 mil opening would mean 2x worldwide isn't out of the question, and A24 clearly doesn't have financials as their utmost priority given they're letting Ari Aster make another one. 

 

 

Edited March 23 by AniNate

[emoviefan]

I swear this place becomes one giant prozac advertisement sometimes. 

[Eric the IF]

9 minutes ago, AniNate said:

Very conflicting feelings on this next month, looks like it's gonna be terrible for movie theaters compared to last year but great for me personally. Ideally there are humongous breakouts and everyone's happy.

This month is the big test to see if audiences really are willing to watch non-NTCs IMO. There’s no big blockbusters to steal the spotlight, nor any big holidays that can juice their grosses like ABY or Boys in the Boat. In 2018, any one of Monkey Man or Civil War or Challengers would have opened to 20M just on their good reviews, good concept, star power, etc. But if they all are a bust, then we’re back at square one. And at this rate, if you want to bother to make something original, you might as well steer clear from Hollywood. Because moviegoers don’t want that shit.

[Maggie]

But why did Immaculate bomb so badly this weekend?

[Cmasterclay]

4 minutes ago, emoviefan said:

I swear this place becomes one giant prozac advertisement sometimes. 

You love doing this schtick where you insult anyone who doesn't agree with your optimism on movies. Looking at it from my perspective, 2024 box office is well below 2023 and growing, consumer habits are changing, and the kind of movies I like still struggle mightily to make money. I've had four years of these movies flopping and people saying "well because the length and subject matter it would have flopped anyway!" That's what I resent. I've posted here since 2008. I have a memory of box office before COVID. If you don't, go look at the box office from like 2009 or 2011 or 2014. Mid-sized movies did SIGNIFICANTLY better than today. Significantly. Did all of them breakout? Of course not. But it wasn't like every single weekend there would have to be excuses for why the latest one failed. It's gaslighting to pretend that anyone who points out this objective fact is some crazy negative depressed person.

Edited March 23 by Cmasterclay

[Unfitclock]

Saturday increases should be a lot stronger this weekend then last weekend 

[cannastop]

6 minutes ago, DAJK said:

(although I think they would have grossed closer to Elemental domestically).

Maybe with higher OW. Elemental's multiplier is exceptional.

[JimmyB]

12 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Because nobody sees films like this in theaters anymore. Nowadays, if you don't open during the holidays or make yourself an event like Dune, you drop 60% minimum. Will happen to every well reviewed April release too btw.

Yup, we have 3 years of data now every once in a while something breaks this trend but it's the new normal

[filmlover]

MGM/Amazon are going all in on promoting Challengers and it doesn't come out for another month. Zendaya (along with Tom Holland) attended the BNP Paribas Tennis Open last weekend. If it flops, it definitely won't be due to lack of awareness. 

[Unfitclock]

There have been small original films that have done well it just depends on what appeals to people and what doesn’t I guess Arthur the king is not appealing to people it just looks like a generic dog movie

[Cmasterclay]

Just for fun I took a smattering of movies from 2014, which btw at the time was considered a weak year at the box office.

 

Neighbors did 150m.

Lucy did 126m.

Noah did 101m.

Non-Stop did 92m.

The Imitation Game did 91m.

Fury did 85m.

The Other Woman did 83m.

The Grand Budapest Hotel did 59m. 

No Good Deed did 52m.

 

Look at those totals. Come on folks. You guys know none of those movies would have done even 25m domestic today except maybe Neighbors, which would have gone straight to Apple like Rogen's recent films, and maybe Budapest because Wes Power. And when they flopped, you know what people would have posted - "oh, of course a movie with those reviews/length/concept/stars flopped, they always would have!" But the fact is, they didn't always. Not remotely. And people who have been on these boards awhile just know that to be true. Which is why I think the Clays and CJohns and others of the world are more negative. 

[Unfitclock]

I mean we just had an original r-rated action film make over 100 million worldwide so it’s not that people just refuse to see smaller original films

[Maggie]

2 minutes ago, Unfitclock said:

There have been small original films that have done well it just depends on what appeals to people and what doesn’t I guess Arthur the king is not appealing to people it just looks like a generic dog movie

I'm surprised Arthur is doing so poorly. The call of the wild, another recent dog movie made 62M in 2020. The box office is definitely in poor shape these days

[WorkingonaName]

Most Hollywood movies arnt worth paying for nowadays.

[emoviefan]

3 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

You love doing this schtick where you insult anyone who doesn't agree with your optimism on movies. Looking at it from my perspective, 2024 box office is well below 2023 and growing, consumer habits are changing, and the kind of movies I like still struggle mightily to make money. I've had four years of these movies flopping and people saying "well because the length and subject matter it would have flopped anyway!" That's what I resent. I've posted here since 2008. I have a memory of box office before COVID. If you don't, go look at the box office from like 2009 or 2011 or 2014. Mid-sized movies did SIGNIFICANTLY better than today. Significantly. It's gaslighting to pretend that anyone who points out this objective fact is some crazy negative depressed person.

I never said I was optimistic about the state of things. I don't like it either. I have been following box office for well over 30 years now so I don't need to go back and check the previous years. It sucks yes but sometimes I think it goes way overboard around here. Yes I know I can go somewhere else  if I don't like it.  so I will save you that retort. But 90% of the time I enjoy the conversation around here. Sometimes It just bugs me because there is there to much wallowing. i apologize my emotions get the better me also. I am not trying to gaslight or anything like that.