Weekend Numbers | estimates | 45.2M GHOSTBUSTERS: FROZEN EMPIRE | 17.6M DUNE II | 16.8M KFP IV

[cannastop]

11 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Heck, even for me, if I watch Love Lies Bleeding when it drops on VOD, I'll probably spend a solid third of the time checking work emails, texting, or googling NBA scores. The streaming market in today's world is just not equipped to turn these films into hits outside maybe one or two a year.

 

OK so how do moviemakers combat people distractedly watching their movies?

[VanillaSkies]

37 minutes ago, Kon said:

That would good for Ghosbusters. I didn't expect 16M to be possible. That means this weekend could reach 40M.

 

It also bodes well for next week/weekend. It’s clearly getting the family bump, and it and KFP4 are pretty much the only family options next week when many will have Spring Break, and then the long weekend where many are off on Friday/Monday. They picked a good launch date with that calendar configuration.

[Eric Lasagna]

8 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Watching film at home as an adult in 2024 sucks. That's a huge part of this. Obviously I didn't come to love the original Star Wars trilogy or Terminator 2 or Silence of the Lambs or Se7en because I saw them in theaters. But I did watch them transfixed in front of a TV, likely on the same channel as half my friends or at least available at Blockbuster, and it would build this cultural reverence. That's how we got cult classics and big growth from Shawshank or Rounders. Today's media environment is too siloed to produce cult classics or home video hits like that. Heck, even for me, if I watch Love Lies Bleeding when it drops on VOD, I'll probably spend a solid third of the time checking work emails, texting, or googling NBA scores. The streaming market in today's world is just not equipped to turn these films into hits outside maybe one or two a year.

 

I just don't know how to get out of the doom loop for the industry. I think @von Kenni has some great points and real perspective. Though I certainly think the false perception of "DEI" among the people who wouldn't see something like Lucy because they think it's "pushing things down our throats" is having a much larger impact on box office than any actual, tangible political correctness in films themselves.  Read the responses on Twitter whenever a video game trailer features ANY woman or person of color at all. It's thousands of responses and downvotes bashing the film. Eventually, that kind of coordinate response can't be written off as just "twitter shit" - that is really going to impact consumer habits. I'm really, really worried about the sexless, Andrew Tate and Twitter addled younger generation. I am not remotely convinced they are more liberal at all compared to folks my age. I think that's a bullshit truism that people are falling for.

I mean Gen Z has already been confirmed to be just as, if not more left than millennials when it comes to most, if not all issues. Obviously folks like Rogan and Tate and Shapiro and Musk are inherently evil individuals with tons of power, but they are just as much dunked on by folks for being the pathetic losers that they are for good reason. Plus in the current box office climate, moviegoing is now largely dominated by young folk and nonwhite folk, groups that largely skew left. If anything, going towards the "grr DEI bad" crowd would cause these projects to tank. Not saying things are perfect, but you're missing tons of context mate.

[Cmasterclay]

1 minute ago, cannastop said:

OK so how do moviemakers combat people distractedly watching their movies?

They don't. The model of films becoming beloved pop culture things on video like Shawshank or Austin Powers are dead. I'm not proposing a solution here. 

[Cmasterclay]

6 minutes ago, Eric Atreides said:

I mean Gen Z has already been confirmed to be just as, if not more left than millennials when it comes to most, if not all issues. Obviously folks like Rogan and Tate and Shapiro and Musk are inherently evil individuals with tons of power, but they are just as much dunked on by folks for being the pathetic losers that they are for good reason. Plus in the current box office climate, moviegoing is now largely dominated by young folk and nonwhite folk, groups that largely skew left. If anything, going towards the "grr DEI bad" crowd would cause these projects to tank. Not saying things are perfect, but you're missing tons of context mate.

I respect your opinion and know you probably have more insight than I do. From my experiences dealing with younger family members and people I help organize (even in Democratic organizing), the amount of podcast and Twitter injected reactionary stuff and misinformation is wild. Lots of young people I know in particular have very extreme takes on masculinity, sexuality, stuff like that. I think I was too simple putting it into left or right. It's more populist and conspiracy leaning. It's just very different from a millenial like me being standard Obama liberals like most 30 somethings. Just my experience! I am very worried. Also, Trump leads 18-29 in almost every single poll, and Biden leads 30-44. That could always change, of course, but it's the first generation in awhile to see those kind of numbers.

 

Anyway, we should probably move any politics off this thread. It's more about the changing consumption habits of films for me.

Edited March 23 by Cmasterclay

[DAJK]

I agree with @charlie Jatinder at least with what I’m seeing in Canada. Ghostbusters is playing like gangbusters (wink wink) for matinees. Wouldn’t be surprised at all if we see an increase from Friday+previews.

[Kon]

57 minutes ago, Eric Atreides said:

I mean Gen Z has already been confirmed to be just as, if not more left than millennials when it comes to most, if not all issues. Obviously folks like Rogan and Tate and Shapiro and Musk are inherently evil individuals with tons of power, but they are just as much dunked on by folks for being the pathetic losers that they are for good reason. Plus in the current box office climate, moviegoing is now largely dominated by young folk and nonwhite folk, groups that largely skew left. If anything, going towards the "grr DEI bad" crowd would cause these projects to tank. Not saying things are perfect, but you're missing tons of context mate.

 

Are we sure the current moviegoing is dominated by nonwhite folk? I've heard you say that often, but most big blockbusters have a bigger white audience.

 

Also, I've read young women are growing more progressive, but that doesn't seem to happening with young men.

[Eric Lasagna]

4 minutes ago, Kon said:

 

Are we sure the current moviegoing is dominated by nonwhite folk? I've heard you say that often, but most big blockbusters have a bigger white audience.

 

Also, I've read young women are growing more progressive, but that doesn't seem to happening with young men.

Well yeah. The farther you go back, the harder it is to find diversity demos. However, when you compare 2021-24 data to the data found in 2019, when this became way more consistent, that white moviegoers are solidly down. Using the top 10 OWs for each year, and all data coming from PostTrak/Deadline...

 

2024

Spoiler

1. Dune 2: 48% white

2. Kung Fu Panda 4: 22%

3. Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire: 48%

4. Bob Marley: One Love: 37%

5. Mean Girls: 52%

6. Argylle: 53%

7. The Beekeeper: 44%

8. Madame Web: N/A

9. Night Swim: 37%

10. Demon Slayer: 23%

 

2023

Spoiler

1. Barbie: 42% white

2. Mario: 30%

3. Across the Spider-Verse: 27%

4. Guardians 3: 41%

5. Ant-Man 3: 34%

6. Little Mermaid: 26%

7. Taylor Swift Eras Tour: 59%

8. Oppenheimer: 53%

9. Five Nights at Freddy’s: 37%

10. John Wick 4: 32%

 

2022

Spoiler

1. Doctor Strange 2: 35% white

2. Black Panther 2: 20%

3. Jurassic World 3: 41%

4. Thor 4: 39%

5. Avatar 2: 33%

6. The Batman: 41%

7. Top Gun 2: 66%

8. Minions 2: 35%

9. Sonic 2: 29%

10. Black Adam: 25%

 

2021

Spoiler

1. Spider-Man 3: 32% white

2. Venom 2: 40%

3. Black Widow: 46%

4. Shang-Chi: 36%

5. Eternals: 51%

6. F9: 35%

7. No Time to Die: 52%

8. Halloween Kills: 38%

9. A Quiet Place 2: 44%

10. Ghostbusters Afterlife: 48%

 

2019

Spoiler

Avengers Endgame: 44% white

The Lion King: 42%

Star Wars 9: 56%

Captain Marvel: 47%

Frozen 2: 52%

Toy Story 4: 49%

Joker: 44%

Spider-Man 2: 43%

Aladdin: 42%

It 2: 47%

 

Now ignoring 2024, since things are still incomplete, the average for white moviegoers, at least for the top 10 OWs, you have 38% in 2023, 36% in 2022, 42% in 2021, and then 47% in 2019. Dropping 5% one pandemic later is pretty startling, and it went down even more in the subsequent years. And yeah, there are some movies that can and will break this notion and get majority white, but the data still says quite a bit right here about what demos have left the theaters and how nonwhite moviegoers have a much greater pull than they used to.

 

If you want an even more apt comparison, John Wick 3 had 42% Caucasian share for its opening weekend. John Wick 4 had 32% Caucasian share. That's a lot. Heck, even within COVID, Dune went from 55% Caucasian for the first movie and shuffled down to 48% for the sequel. Not as jarring a drop, but still fairly significant IMO.

[AniNate]

Not really hyped for Godzilla but I do hope we get a break from this doomloop next week at least, though I'm sure it'll return in full-force through April.

 

Just watched Love Lies Bleeding, pretty entertaining but definitely the kind of movie that likely would not have done any better in the "good ol days" of theatergoing.

 

 

Edited March 23 by AniNate

[von Kenni]

2 hours ago, cannastop said:

OK so how do moviemakers combat people distractedly watching their movies?

 

2 hours ago, Cmasterclay said:

They don't. The model of films becoming beloved pop culture things on video like Shawshank or Austin Powers are dead. I'm not proposing a solution here. 

 

I think this relates to the questions that I was pondering in my earlier post. Moviemakers can't do much about the changing media and entertainment landscape as a whole, i.e. how the short format content or general flooding of constant entertainment content does for our attention spans or need for long format movie experiences. Whether these are part of the reason, I've found myself more inclined to watch TV shows or even shorter content on Youtube than films before. However, I suspect that there will be a collective awakening/realization that takes us back to a long-format type of content and storytelling. You could argue podcasts showing that already.

 

As Cmasterclay already referred here, at least making quality films is in the hands of the moviemakers (if you include studios and financiers in them and not just the production people). In addition to that theaters have some room to evolve and I'd say film marketing is still partly living in the past.

[terrestrial]

5 hours ago, ZeroHour said:

Oh we’re really in denial if we’re still trying to sell 2024 as a post-COVID recovery period. Business at restaurants and live entertainment has been booming. There’s no post-COVID hesitation anywhere else. People’s relationship to movie theaters has just changed. 

Dune 2 is the first movie I watched in a cinema since COVID. Tried to get back into the interest to watch another movies since COVID before, but every time it fell through, like the movie was not interesting enough for whatever reason or people around me got ill again

Out of those that are already watching movies in a cinema again, most started to visit cinemas again in 2023, a smaller part was not back even yet.

[Brainbug]

For me personally, im just glad that movies and movie theaters so far survived Covid and also are still surviving the streaming age despite all tge struggles and problems. Im glad for every film like Dune 2 because i dont know when the time will come that such movies wont get made anymore. Or when the viewing habitats changed so much that theaters really get closed everywhere. Im pretty sure that this (terrible) scenario will come someday, but i hope that its still a long, long way ahead of us.

 

But since i dont know when the death of movie theaters will happen, i just enjoy them in the present as long as i can.

[emoviefan]

4 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

For me personally, im just glad that movies and movie theaters so far survived Covid and also are still surviving the streaming age despite all tge struggles and problems. Im glad for every film like Dune 2 because i dont know when the time will come that such movies wont get made anymore. Or when the viewing habitats changed so much that theaters really get closed everywhere. Im pretty sure that this (terrible) scenario will come someday, but i hope that its still a long, long way ahead of us.

 

But since i dont know when the death of movie theaters will happen, i just enjoy them in the present as long as i can.

Speaking for myself those 16 months between Feb 20 and May 21 were agonizing. The only movie I saw in a theater was Tenant in September 20. I understand people who have been slow in coming back and are still not ready or never will be. But for me when the theaters were open for good and movies started coming out on a regular basis you could not keep me away. Having said that I don't go as much as I used too. Being older and having fewer movies that I have to see in a theater. 

[Krissykins]

Late Night with the Devil is the scariest film I’ve seen in years. One part made my eyes water a bit. 

[Minnale101]

Nothing beats a movie experience at the threater

[Bob Train]

[Hatebox]

Said it before when this topic comes up, but cinema needs to decide whether it’s cheap entertainment or a luxury experience. Because right now, where I live at least, it feels like neither. I want to want to go to it more, but it’s just not selling itself. 
 

 

Edited March 23 by Hatebox

[Bob Train]

[Boxofficerules]

38 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Late Night with the Devil is the scariest film I’ve seen in years. One part made my eyes water a bit. 

Did you shit yourself in the cinema due to pure terror?

[Minnale101]

There was snowstorms here in Toronto last night, subsided today 

 

kfp4 was doing extremely well here, so maybe light increase from Thursday to Friday, will be made up from Friday to Saturday