Weekend estimates | 31.70M GODZILLA × KONG: TNE | 10.10M MONKEY MAN | 9.00M GHOSTBUSTERS: FE | 8.36M THE FIRST OMEN | 7.85M KFP IV | 7.20M DUNE II

[kayumanggi]

 

Edited April 7 by kayumanggi

[Krissykins]

So I’m guessing $10-13m for Monkey Man and $6-7m for The First Omen.

 

Pretty depressing for both. Especially considering they’re 86% and 84% on Rotten Tomatoes. 
 

 

[kayumanggi]

Hollywood should make more originals. 

[Brainbug]

April ist the true test to see if audiences are willing to come out in big numbers again not only for the blockbusters, but also the smaller-budget fare.

 

So far, not a great start.

[AniNate]

In hindsight definitely got a sense of waning enthusiasm for Monkey Man even after the SXSW premiere. The saved from Netflix narrative helped its online buzz when it was first announced, but when it came to actually selling tickets people just weren't all that interested it seems.

 

Omen might've been helped a little by an earlier embargo drop, but I dunno, the whole "exhausted franchise" feel of it just really wasn't much of a hook imo. If the positive reviews are comparing it to Babadook, then I definitely think there was a limit to its appeal with mainstream horror auds.

 

So yeah, to state the obvious a massive vibe downswing from last week. Still hyped for Civil War and Challengers but this month looks like it's gonna be an endurance test as far as industry discourse goes.

[Flopped]

2 hours ago, Krissykins said:

So I’m guessing $10-13m for Monkey Man and $6-7m for The First Omen.

 

Pretty depressing for both. Especially considering they’re 86% and 84% on Rotten Tomatoes. 
 

 

Where did you get Omen's number from? 

[stripe]

1 hour ago, Brainbug said:

April ist the true test to see if audiences are willing to come out in big numbers again not only for the blockbusters, but also the smaller-budget fare.

 

So far, not a great start.

 

It's still early, especially for Monkey Man. I see that as a test of possible breakout thanks to legs more than big OW.

 

Anyways, if Monkey Man opens to around 12-13M, it could reach 40-50M DOM, and that's quite solid for an actioner that was scheduled not long ago and without a star in front of it.

[Krissykins]

14 minutes ago, Flopped said:

Where did you get Omen's number from? 

Charlie’s post in the tracking thread a few hours ago. 

[Eric Furiosa]

3 hours ago, Brainbug said:

April ist the true test to see if audiences are willing to come out in big numbers again not only for the blockbusters, but also the smaller-budget fare.

 

So far, not a great start.

Civil War is the only one I can see being a breakout. A lot is riding on it. Otherwise, I’ll have to rant about n*stalgic t*y c*mmercials again. I’m out here looking like this rn.

 

[el sid]

Some will say that was to expect but still, very disappointing numbers for both movies.

 

Monkey Man's presales were very uneven in our tracking thread (from not much above 1M-3.5M). Then walk-ups must have been pretty bad.

The First Omen would be in line with our low expectations. The trailers were strange, almost no buzz, the reviews dropped too late plus Immaculate did not work either. I never understood why e.g. variety projected 14-15M OW.

[toutvabien]

Hope it has strong IM.

[Cookson]

Kinda ew. Well let’s hope GxK can hold strong 

[Pinacolada]

Damnit

[filmlover]

I'm not sure how much potential there ever really was for The First Omen even with the good reviews. The original movie is probably remembered more as a concept (what if a small child was the Antichrist?) than an actual film these days, and its status as a horror IP has always been lacking compared to other franchises, with the most recent attempt to revive it in the past couple of decades being a remake that's completely forgotten aside from its gimmicky opening day (and barely even that). Not to mention even if you weren't aware of its earlier connection, horror movies of the sort really are a dime a dozen and it probably looked too similar on the surface to Immaculate (also not posting big numbers). At least it should enjoy a longer shelf life on streaming than if it had been dumped directly to Hulu.

 

Same with Monkey Man and its original Netflix destination. A double digits opening would be fine considering Dev Patel is a solid actor but has never been a draw and it wasn't even on the schedule a dozen weeks ago. In short, these movies shouldn't be used for any arguments for why theaters are dying and whatnot because they were never going to be The Industry's Last Hope, even if an overperformance from either would've been nice.

Edited April 5 by filmlover

[stripe]

What would be a good result for both openers?

 

Anyways...

Jat's number is not official, so there's still hope

&

Cocaine Bear managed to open to 23M after 2M previews. So there will be still hope after previews are official
 

 

[TMP]

51 minutes ago, Eric Atreides said:

Otherwise, I’ll have to rant about n*stalgic t*y c*mmercials again.

I mean, you don't have to.

[reddevil19]

3 hours ago, stripe said:

 

It's still early, especially for Monkey Man. I see that as a test of possible breakout thanks to legs more than big OW.

 

Anyways, if Monkey Man opens to around 12-13M, it could reach 40-50M DOM, and that's quite solid for an actioner that was scheduled not long ago and without a star in front of it.

I really don't see how it reaches 50 million off a 12 million opening even in a barren April. If there was a chance of a break out, it would have been OW. The reception doesn't seem to be that enthusiastic - to put it another way, it would need to play like the first John Wick. I don't see that happening. Dev is not Keanu and with consumer behaviour being what it is, audiences are less likely to give this kind a movie a try in cinemas.

 

This is the very definition of a streaming movie in a post-pandemic world. There just isn't a hook, a "must-see in cinemas" angle with it. And post-COVID, movies need that hook to succeed theatrically. I still think theatrical is 100% the way to go, as any box office is better than nothing, with streaming just adding to it rather than being the end goal, but we have to accept that in 2023/2024, the first John Wick would also have been a streaming movie...

[Eric Furiosa]

27 minutes ago, TMP said:

I mean, you don't have to.

Good point!

[emoviefan]

Yeah kind of disappointing,  from a following box office perspective,   both of these movies look they will not break out.  People though are right saying these movies are not a litmus test for the health of theatrical. As others have said, They both had  obstacles in their way that strong reviews could not help with .  I still  think the Fall Guy in May  is going to be a great litmus test. That is a much more commercial GA looking movie with strong reviews and two A list actors hot of Oscar noms and massive hits. If they can not move the needle throughout the next month and it only opens to Lost City or Bullet Train numbers then yeah. WOM and legs should be great but with it being a potential franchise starter and a much bigger budget than those two , only making as much would not be great. 

[Flopped]

22 minutes ago, reddevil19 said:

I really don't see how it reaches 50 million off a 12 million opening even in a barren April. If there was a chance of a break out, it would have been OW. The reception doesn't seem to be that enthusiastic - to put it another way, it would need to play like the first John Wick. I don't see that happening. Dev is not Keanu and with consumer behaviour being what it is, audiences are less likely to give this kind a movie a try in cinemas.

 

This is the very definition of a streaming movie in a post-pandemic world. There just isn't a hook, a "must-see in cinemas" angle with it. And post-COVID, movies need that hook to succeed theatrically. I still think theatrical is 100% the way to go, as any box office is better than nothing, with streaming just adding to it rather than being the end goal, but we have to accept that in 2023/2024, the first John Wick would also have been a streaming movie...

Is April really that barren? Civil War, Abigail, Challengers, etc. Not saying any of these movies will break out and smash but there's competition on the horizon.