Weekend 4/19-21: ABIGAIL 1 mil previews

[JimmyB]

The box office numbers domestically just are bad. When you start digging into the numbers its almost unbelievable how far behind the box office is or ticket sales are to the box office average from 2016-2019.

 

My local Cinemark is a big 20 screen theater and last night we drove by it and the parking lot had maybe 40 cars just a fucking ghost town.  When we go, half the time no one is even checking your tickets and you'll only have 2 people working concessions.  Im not sure how they stay in business.

 

9-10 years ago I worked at that Cinemark. A slow weekend for us was usually the weekend after Labor Day.  The weekend after Labor Day in 2014 No Good Deed opened to almost 25 million and Dolphin Tale 2 did almost 16 million.  In 2015, The Perfect Guy opened to almost 26 million and The Visit opened to 25 million.  These were what we called slow weekends.  In 2024 do any of these 4 films even open to 12 million.  Might seem harsh but in 2024 people see these movies are streaming films.

 

This was Deadline's spin from last weekend.  Down 31% compared to the same weekend 5 years ago.  5 years! We are comparing revenue for a business to 5 years ago and with inflation that revenue is still down 31%.

Despite the great business for a movie like Civil War, the overall marketplace at $77.4M still dragged behind last year’s Super Mario Bros mojo at -48%, but was only behind 2019’s same April weekend at -31%.

 

[justnumbers]

Yeah. We'll be in 2027 in a couple of weak weekends and we will hear this melodrama again. Crying about Abigail opening to 10M-12M seems pointless. Or any movie studios put the bare minimum behind. Audiences like it so maybe it legs out, maybe it doesn't. Freaking Lionsgate can't promote movies that don't promote for themselves. They sold the international rights to streaming already in most markets. I mean...please.

 

I actually feel really good about theatrical going forward from May on, 2025, 2026...

 

Honestly my biggest worries with theaters is another pandemic, War or another big strike.

[justnumbers]

21 minutes ago, JimmyB said:

The box office numbers domestically just are bad. When you start digging into the numbers its almost unbelievable how far behind the box office is or ticket sales are to the box office average from 2016-2019.

 

My local Cinemark is a big 20 screen theater and last night we drove by it and the parking lot had maybe 40 cars just a fucking ghost town.  When we go, half the time no one is even checking your tickets and you'll only have 2 people working concessions.  Im not sure how they stay in business.

 

9-10 years ago I worked at that Cinemark. A slow weekend for us was usually the weekend after Labor Day.  The weekend after Labor Day in 2014 No Good Deed opened to almost 25 million and Dolphin Tale 2 did almost 16 million.  In 2015, The Perfect Guy opened to almost 26 million and The Visit opened to 25 million.  These were what we called slow weekends.  In 2024 do any of these 4 films even open to 12 million.  Might seem harsh but in 2024 people see these movies are streaming films.

 

This was Deadline's spin from last weekend.  Down 31% compared to the same weekend 5 years ago.  5 years! We are comparing revenue for a business to 5 years ago and with inflation that revenue is still down 31%.

Despite the great business for a movie like Civil War, the overall marketplace at $77.4M still dragged behind last year’s Super Mario Bros mojo at -48%, but was only behind 2019’s same April weekend at -31%.

 

Yeah I've said this already. Times have changed. Audiences look for different experiences in theaters with streaming existence. You can't churn out these action movies that look the same, not promote them and expect audiences to appear. And this is not necessarily a bad thing. Studios need to reinvent and that's exciting. Or they will just have to put the effort from beginning to end.

 

These movies need to be reinvented. Or just keep them in streaming. You won't get a Beekeeper if you don't put the effort on the concept already. While Statham is a draw, I think there was something to the Beekeeper aspect of it. The way it was marketed. Some  cool shots. There's really no way to quantify tho. If its only Statham, and you want to make these to theaters, cast wide appealing actors. Obviously no one here sell alone. Get Brad Pitt. Maybe Tom Hardy. Maybe Chris Pratt. Maybe Sandra Bullock. Obviously, Statham. Alan Ritchson.

 

I just can't help but feel that audiences are obviously changing but Studios are not following. These Guy Ritchie movies feel very old school. Too much.

Edited April 20 by justnumbers

[Spidey Freak]

6 hours ago, emoviefan said:

Just want to say that we are doing the theaters are dying and it's all doomed on a weekend when the big new movies are a little girl vampire movie and a Guy Ritchie WW2 movie that the studio basically dumped like they have been doing to most of their movies lately. 

 

Well, obviously movies are not doomed and we are still feeling the after effects of last year's strikes but there's something to be said about a "little girl vampire movie" being thought of as a hard sell when the same studio had insane marketing just a little more than a year ago for an evil little doll movie that helped it break out in JANUARY. 

 

Why did Universal's marketing team sleep on Abigail? Where was this energy?

[Cmasterclay]

It's one thing if $9 billion a year is the new normal and it just requires more luck and work to get people to the theaters, it's another thing if we are in a death spiral due to a superseding technology that phases out this experience during a generation. I think we all could live with the former, but the more I think about it historically and the more I examine my friends attitudes, the more I start to think we are in the latter. 

 

Anyway, this isn't expired by these movies this weekend obviously, it's just gonna be a shitty couple months and I'm bored and bleak.

[TwoMisfits]

9 hours ago, AniNate said:

Cinemark has actually been profitable the past year, so they at least have figured out how to weather the storm I think. They've been closing theaters like everyone, yes, but they are a model for how the exhibition industry can survive.

 

I think it is probably true that with streaming we'll never get back to the admission highs of the early 2000s, and it does obviously have a much more desirable appeal to large families that I really can't blame them for. But it is also pretty clear at this point that streaming is not gonna completely kill off theaters; there is still a market for large screen communal viewing even if it might not be as big as it was before. 

 

 

 

Cinemark does a lot of things right.

 

- It books a LOT of small-but-strong interest cinema - a ton of foreign films, a ton of religious films, etc - so, when Hollywood is in a lull, they are not just stuck with Hollywood.

- It books a LOT of non-films - opera, MMA fights, theatre, concerts, e-gaming, etc 

- Its membership, which I have and which I don't love, still has no ability to bankrupt them b/c it's one movie slightly discounted a month with discounted concessions.

- They have kept reservable theaters for weekend birthday parties.

- They have kept a kids summer movie program to keep families coming in year in and year out, even if they never pay for full price movies - just keeping the kid habit alive is crucial.

- They have kept a cheap Tuesday and a cheap senior citizen Monday, so they never have fully empty weekdays.

- They have cut weekday morning hours - making movies now a lunch or later activity - saving wages, but not at the expense of movie availability or fixed costs.

Edited April 20 by TwoMisfits

[CJohn]

I have had too many bad crowd experiences in theaters in the past 2 years to care much anymore. I still go but if it all closes down tomorrow and movies go straight to streaming I am perfectly OK with it.

[Flopped]

26 minutes ago, Spidey Freak said:

 

Well, obviously movies are not doomed and we are still feeling the after effects of last year's strikes but there's something to be said about a "little girl vampire movie" being thought of as a hard sell when the same studio had insane marketing just a little more than a year ago for an evil little doll movie that helped it break out in JANUARY. 

 

Why did Universal's marketing team sleep on Abigail? Where was this energy?

 

In hindsight Evil Dead Rise opening to almost 25M a year ago this week was really impressive given that the marketing didn't seem to go that hard. It just had a killer trailer.  

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=smTK_AeAPHs

 

 

[Krissykins]

37 minutes ago, justnumbers said:

These movies need to be reinvented. Or just keep them in streaming. You won't get a Beekeeper if you don't put the effort on the concept already. While Statham is a draw, I think there was something to the Beekeeper aspect of it. The way it was marketed. Some  cool shots. There's really no way to quantify tho. If its only Statham, and you want to make these to theaters, cast wide appealing actors. Obviously no one here sell alone. Get Brad Pitt. Maybe Tom Hardy. Maybe Chris Pratt. Maybe Sandra Bullock. Obviously, Statham. Alan Ritchson.

 

Two flops in a row for Alan Ritchson. Back to TV he goes! 

[filmlover]

The rumors going around that Target is also looking to exit the physical media game (not a shock: after Best Buy, it was inevitable) further reinforces just how much the rise of streaming this past decade ended up having across the entertainment industry. Kind of wild that the movie theater-DVD-Pay 1 TV window-broadcast TV release tradition is essentially a thing of the past now (today it's theaters-streaming with everything else being a nonfactor), yet here we are. COVID dramatically accelerated that though when the movement was happening more gradually pre-pandemic.

[TwoMisfits]

June 10-13: Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem
June 17-20: Sonic the Hedgehog 2
June 24-27: Shrek
July 1-4: PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie
July 8-11: The Lego Movie
July 15-18: Trolls Band Together
July 22-25: How to Train Your Dragon
July 29-Aug 1: Migration
August 5-8: Hotel Transylvania
August 12-15: Paddington 2

 

For those with kids, this is the Cinemark summer movie clubhouse this year.  Tickets have increased from $1.50 to $1.75/person, but still a nice time at the movies for an early Wednesday morning (some theaters, to boost their mornings, will actually show the films on Mon/Wed/Thurs, but YMMV - and weren't we already talking about the deadness of theaters weekdays)...

 

For the record, I'm trying to talk my kids into Trolls 3 (unseen) and Shrek (they've never seen it, and $1.75 is the right price)...the boys have already said they want TMNT (a repeat) and Paw Patrol 2 (unseen).

 

PS - And notice, Disney still provides no support.  It's really one of the big reasons my kids (and I) have gravitated away from Disney - they could chuck one of their old less popular animated films to one of these programs, but nope, never.  They never, ever have been a part in any of these cheap family summer programs.

[TwoMisfits]

And while this is OT, I wanted to expand on families being picky.

 

For years, my local bowling alley had a summer pass that gave you 2 games of bowling + shoes before 6pm (and 4pm weekends) every day of the summer for a set fee.  And we took advantage every summer.

 

Last year, they eliminated it...and we didn't bowl once.  Sucked, but the pool was open and we were seeing cheap summer movies, so the kids' adapted.

 

This year, the bowling alley brought the pass back, at a cheaper rate and for all hours of the day (except on Saturday, but Friday and Sunday nights are now available).  And at a reduced rate from 2 years ago.

 

Yeah, the experiment to get folks to pay full price for superfluous entertainment in a tough inflationary environment obviously did not work.  Theaters need to grasp that, too.

 

PS - Yes, I have passes...and yes, this will probably cut into our movie watching, just like the cheap Black Friday trampoline park passes have this year.

 

Last year, I think we saw 18 movies in theater (with summer movies and others).  This year, we've watched 2 so far (and 1 was a 2023 movie).  And we still do have the same Cinemark pass - it's just unused.  I may or may not get to Platinum for this year.

Edited April 20 by TwoMisfits

[filmlover]

42 minutes ago, Spidey Freak said:

Why did Universal's marketing team sleep on Abigail? Where was this energy?

Let's be real: M3GAN became an instant camp icon the moment the trailer was released.  The memes from that alone were relentless. Abigail was always going to have its work cut out for it to rival that.

[Issac Newton]

 

 

Edited April 20 by Issac Newton

[Legion Again]

1 hour ago, Cmasterclay said:

It's one thing if $9 billion a year is the new normal and it just requires more luck and work to get people to the theaters, it's another thing if we are in a death spiral due to a superseding technology that phases out this experience during a generation. I think we all could live with the former, but the more I think about it historically and the more I examine my friends attitudes, the more I start to think we are in the latter. 

 

Anyway, this isn't expired by these movies this weekend obviously, it's just gonna be a shitty couple months and I'm bored and bleak.

I mean 9B would be kind of bad still looking at tickets, but not disaster level bad I would say.

 

But we aren’t even going to get close to 9B, are we? 

Edited April 20 by Legion Again

[emoviefan]

55 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

It's one thing if $9 billion a year is the new normal and it just requires more luck and work to get people to the theaters, it's another thing if we are in a death spiral due to a superseding technology that phases out this experience during a generation. I think we all could live with the former, but the more I think about it historically and the more I examine my friends attitudes, the more I start to think we are in the latter. 

 

Anyway, this isn't expired by these movies this weekend obviously, it's just gonna be a shitty couple months and I'm bored and bleak.

Yeah we may be in a death spiral or maybe we are not and your friends  are just your friends and they do not speak for everybody. A few days ago you said you were very optimistic about the back half of the year and how much stronger it looks. Have you changed your mind that quickly?This is probably not the weekend to do that. Maybe wait until those mid to late summer and forward weekends when the product is stronger on paper and if the Box Office still stinks.  And If I a sound like I am trying to pick a fight I am not. I feel the same  way you do a lot of the time about this medium I love. Just trying to offer some perspective.Cause we could all try to  be a little more positive and not so bleak. It's not healthy at all.

[Cmasterclay]

There's just too many options in the world now for movies to be a time and cost-effective option for most people to spend three hours. By the way, I also think that most sectors of entertainment, art, and culture have the same problem - not just complaining about movies. The sheer amount of options and content is creating a circular firing squad where nothing can thrive. And "Option excess" isn't just a cultural issue - it's also drained our public schools of students as they go to charter and online options, it's drained our storefronts of shoppers, it's drained our public spaces of the community and investment needed, which is why virtually every downtown in America is flirting with becoming giant outdoor shuttered homeless shelters right now (that's not designed as an attack on the unhoused, to be clear). We weren't meant to be this glug glug glug with options to stay home and live online. It is breaking our politics, commerce, and cultural institutions. It's a pandora's box that got opened too far. Anyway, this is only tangentially about box office anymore. I think after 30 years of no smoking and drinking I need to start getting high. Shit is too bleak baby.

[Issac Newton]

 

 

[Cmasterclay]

7 minutes ago, emoviefan said:

Yeah we may be in a death spiral or maybe we are not and your friends  are just your friends and they do not speak for everybody. A few days ago you said you were very optimistic about the back half of the year and how much stronger it looks. Have you changed your mind that quickly?This is probably not the weekend to do that. Maybe wait until those mid to late summer and forward weekends when the product is stronger on paper and if the Box Office still stinks.  And If I a sound like I am trying to pick a fight I am not. I feel the same  way you do a lot of the time about this medium I love. Just trying to offer some perspective.Cause we could all try to  be a little more positive and not so bleak. It's not healthy at all.

I think the answer is that I work too deeply in structural politics and institutions and each day I'm confronted by the lasting impacts of these changes, so my mood can flip very quickly, which it did based on a couple of conversations this week. That's the honest answer.

[filmlover]

5 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

I think after 30 years of no smoking and drinking I need to start getting high.

I mean, it is 4/20 today.