May 4, 2012 Weekend (AVENGERS Opening Discussion): ACTUAL 207.4 mill!!!!

[Fake]

It has to stay above 20M today for it to even have a chance at sub-45% drop.22M and we could seriously be kissing Avatar good-bye.

[lab276]

22M and we could seriously be kissing Avatar good-bye.

I'm sure people were thinking along similar lines during TDK's run.

[friendofnarnia]

I'm sure people were thinking along similar lines during TDK's run.

A 22M non-holiday weekday in July does not guarantee a 600+ gross. The same number in May does.But I really don't think we will get close to that. Rth is probably right. We are looking at 20M max...and that would be absolutely fantastic! Edited May 8, 2012 by friendofnarnia

[druv10]

WOM is on par with SM1 and TDK but 38% is crazy talk. I would love it but its really out there.129M 2nd weekend.If TA follows SM1 (which would be crazy out of this world hold)Monday 19.8MTuesday 17.9MWednesday 14.9MThursday 13.38MFriday 35.67MSaturday 54.64MSunday 37.65M2nd weekend 127.96M (38.4% drop)

[vc2002]

I'm sure people were thinking along similar lines during TDK's run.

You mean "kissing Titanic goodbye"?Using the same mutiplier of TDK for TA, and we get 700m. Will TA have a better mutiplier than TDK. I dont think most of us would believe that.Anyway, as long as it doesnt make more than 658m I'm OK. Edited May 8, 2012 by vc2002

[eXtacy]

Why are people being so dumb. 18-20m monday would be the highest monday admissions outside of holidays in the last 10 years.

[Fake]

I'm sure people were thinking along similar lines during TDK's run.

TDK didn't have universal appeal, Avengers does. Edited May 8, 2012 by Fake

[Fake]

I'm sure people were thinking along similar lines during TDK's run.

TDK didn't have universal appeal, Avengers does.

[The Stingray]

I haven't seen this movie yet, I'm seeing it next Saturday... do peoplereally think this thing has the WOM capable of that?

Its a good movie so it has the word of mouth. But it dropping only 38% just isn't realistic. That would result in a 128m 2nd weekend and that's a bit absurd. And you really cant compare it to Spidey 1 since Avengers made almost 100m more in its opening weekend.90-100m is more likely. I'm saying 92m.

[stuart360]

I love how there are so many 'experts' who know the ins and outs of whats needed for a film to hit 600mil even though we have only ever had 2 films in history do that!. So a 22mil May first Monday gaurantees 600mil, really.

[baumer]

I haven't seen this movie yet, I'm seeing it next Saturday... do peoplereally think this thing has the WOM capable of that?

The WOM is incredible. But a 4 multpilier off a opening weekend record is unheard of. 600 is the aim at this time....anything more is gravy.

[Neo]

Shawn tweeted "What if it falls 38% like Spiderman 1?"lolIf it does, you can kiss Avatar good-bye.

Would blow past Avatar, no?

[druv10]

I love how there are so many 'experts' who know the ins and outs of whats needed for a film to hit 600mil even though we have only ever had 2 films in history do that!. So a 22mil May first Monday gaurantees 600mil, really.

Who is saying 22M Monday? Rth already said 65-68% drop meaning 18.3-20M Monday.

[lab276]

Why are people being so dumb. 18-20m monday would be the highest monday admissions outside of holidays in the last 10 years.

TDK made $24m without 3D in 2008.

[baumer]

TDK made $24m without 3D in 2008.

Summer

[Shantal]

Summer starters always drop a lot on their first Monday.SUMMER STARTS Openers First Monday drop in the last 10 years2002 - Spider-Man - -65.3%2003 - X2: X-Men United - -70.6%2004 - Van Helsing - -68.6%2005 - Kingdom of Heaven - -67.4% (under 20 mil OW so it had nothing to fall from)2006 - Mission: Impossible III - -72.2%2007 - Spider-Man 3 - -74.2%2008 - Iron Man - -73.4%2009 - X-Men Origins: Wolverine - -74.4%2010 - Iron Man 2 - -69.9%2011 - Thor - -68%3 (2004, 2005, 2006) of those started with an under 60 mil OW, so they had way less to fall from.If TA drops to 20 000 000 $ on Monday it will have a better drop than SM - (-65.3%) vs TA (-64.9%). In an age where no matter how good WOM the degree of froantlaodness is sligthly higher, I just can't see that happening. Even a 19 mil Monday will give TA the second best drop in the last 10 years (-66.7%).

Edited May 8, 2012 by Shantal

[druv10]

TDK made $24m without 3D in 2008.

TDK was in summer (School Holidays). TA has no shot during May when schools are in session.

[friendofnarnia]

TDK made $24m without 3D in 2008.

Summer is basically a holiday for a lot of people under the age of 21.

[Shantal]

TDK made $24m without 3D in 2008.

That's a joke to compare them, right? Even Spider Man 1 which adjusted did an OW just 3 mil bellow TDK had an $15,042,300 Monday Adjusted.

Summer vs. beginning of May

[lab276]

Summer is basically a holiday for a lot of people under the age of 21.

That's true.In that case it probably is the most attended Monday outside of Summer or holidays.