Weekend Actuals page 66 TA: 55.6m BS: 25.5m ; SW EP1 $293!

[ecstasy]

Rth, can you explain to us how it worke your predictions when we are still getting sold out shows across North America? I'm aware that you can see the actual numbers, but I'm curious because I don't understand how you could calculate/estimate that.

He explained this a few weeks back.

[ZattMurdock]

He explained this a few weeks back.

I didn't catch it.

[ecstasy]

That's how I look at it too, but...“@franzbroseph: Avengers has three sold-out showings at the theatre i'm at, aww :')” 38 minutes ago :DI still think that Rth estimates are playing low this time, I'm not sure how he can measure screenings that are getting sold out as we speak.PS: mates, look how much of cutie this franzbroseph chick is. It always makes me fuzzy seeing cute girls giving TA some love. :$

Yeah I know. I've been watching twitter too. Lots of sell outs. But like I said in the Avengers thread, some theaters have moved it to smaller screens to make room for Battleship and Dark Shadows. That could account for the rise of sell outs in its third week.

[Plain Old Tele]

It's funny how people swear by Rth's numbers when they come in higher than expected, but doubt them when they're a tad lower than expected. ;)The dude is pretty accurate and his estimates come from actual data.

[Jim Shorts]

Attendance was down in my area yesterday and today because of exceptionally nice weather. Too early for graduations to have begun just yet

College graduations were held at a bunch of local colleges here in the DC area.

[ZattMurdock]

It's funny how people swear by Rth's numbers when they come in higher than expected, but doubt them when they're a tad lower than expected. ;)The dude is pretty accurate and his estimates come from actual data.

I swore by his numbers this morning but the actuals were lower. Estimates can go up and down, doesn't? Edited May 20, 2012 by iJackSparrow

[Olive]

Most times the final number is in the range Rth updates

[druv10]

It's funny how people swear by Rth's numbers when they come in higher than expected, but doubt them when they're a tad lower than expected. ;)The dude is pretty accurate and his estimates come from actual data.

He already said 24-25M for TA. I would love for it to stay in that group. Roughly 57%-63% jump for Saturday. Edited May 20, 2012 by druv10

[ecstasy]

At least Depp has his share of hits and worked his way up to A-list star.The people who put Kitsch as the lead of 200 million dollar projects should be shot. He's as interesting as a block of wood. They cast him purely on his looks. Morons!His movie career is "sunk". Now he go find work at the strip club where he belongs.

Aw that's a bit harsh. I don't think his movie career is sunk. I think his being cast as lead actor in big budget films is over though.I did think it was odd that he had the lead in John Carter when he was yet unproven as a movie star. I made a post about it in the JC thread way back when.

[tonytr87]

In regards to Kitsch...when has the guy shown any talent outside of Friday Night Lights? People are soft on him because of that show, but tv is a different ball game than film. He's another Sam Worthington, only difference is Worthington lucked out on getting cast in the biggest movie of all time.

[Elessar]

Didnt rth post his friday numbers as between 17-18 but its now confirmed as 15.3-15.5 now ?

Wasn't that Hollywood Reporter (16-18)?

[doctoru2]

You never beat a woman up. Regardless if she's a bitch, a whore or a mewling quim. What he did has no excuse and it's unforgivable. It amazes me to see someone even defending that guy. If a girl beats me up, I'll hold her arm and say it's over. If a girl cheats on me, I'll call and tell that it's fucking over. There's just not excuse to what he did. Just because I find her astonishing doesn't mean she isn't fucking dumb for forgiving him. It's just not right.

Just wanted to add a tidbit to your strong post.

Some men can be intimidated just as women are. And some women beat with a lot more than handslaps or punches, just like men do. And since some men feel they can never hit a woman, she may slug them with wrenches and other things, causing serious damage. More and more men are reporting abuse by women (it's still consider "weak" for a man to do this, but it is changing).

Why stay in an abusive relationship? There are many, many reasons why people justify their actions. None are good, and all requre therapy. I hope in this more famous case, both parties are getting the help they need.

With regards to the Friday numbers, I felt TA did just fine. I was expecting a $50M+ weekend and it should get that. This is an action hero movie and they still tend - in general - to have larger drops the first few weekends. When a film has already made $400M, lots of the audience has seen it. Therefore, expecting $60M+ might have been too optimistic.

[Deep Wang]

Yeah I know. I've been watching twitter too. Lots of sell outs. But like I said in the Avengers thread, some theaters have moved it to smaller screens to make room for Battleship and Dark Shadows. That could account for the rise of sell outs in its third week.

I know what you are saying and it is probably true in the majority of theaters. But not mine! Since I keep up with tracking and stuff when I make the schedule I plan accordingly. I kept the Avengers in the exact same theaters we've had all along. I put the 3 prints of Battleship in some of the pretty small theaters. It never for fuller than 70% for battleship all day. Meanwhile our 2D shows for The Avengers were at 80% full all day.

[ecstasy]

I know what you are saying and it is probably true in the majority of theaters. But not mine! Since I keep up with tracking and stuff when I make the schedule I plan accordingly.I kept the Avengers in the exact same theaters we've had all along. I put the 3 prints of Battleship in some of the pretty small theaters. It never for fuller than 70% for battleship all day. Meanwhile our 2D shows for The Avengers were at 80% full all day.

Aw good. So how many tickets tonight for Avengers?

[ZattMurdock]

Just wanted to add a tidbit to your strong post.Some men can be intimidated just as women are. And some women beat with a lot more than handslaps or punches, just like men do. And since some men feel they can never hit a woman, she may slug them with wrenches and other things, causing serious damage. More and more men are reporting abuse by women (it's still consider "weak" for a man to do this, but it is changing). Why stay in an abusive relationship? There are many, many reasons why people justify their actions. None are good, and all requre therapy. I hope in this more famous case, both parties are getting the help they need.With regards to the Friday numbers, I felt TA did just fine. I was expecting a $50M+ weekend and it should get that. This is an action hero movie and they still tend - in general - to have larger drops the first few weekends. When a film has already made $400M, lots of the audience has seen it. Therefore, expecting $60M+ might have been too optimistic.

I agree about men not putting down with an abusive relationship. But let's be frank here. Chris Brown is a big boy. What could possibly Rihanna do to justify getting beaten up like she did? I'll tell you: NOTHING. There's no way around it. And having someone trying to sort of justify that disgusts me and makes me really mad. Edited May 20, 2012 by iJackSparrow

[doctoru2]

At least Depp has his share of hits and worked his way up to A-list star.The people who put Kitsch as the lead of 200 million dollar projects should be shot. He's as interesting as a block of wood. They cast him purely on his looks. Morons!His movie career is "sunk". Now he go find work at the strip club where he belongs.

Depp had only one $100M grossing film prior to "Pirates" ("Sleepy Hollow"). Granted, most of Depp's films did not cost $250M, but that is hardly Kitsch's fault. Plus, it's not as if that budget was due to his salary (whch was probably rather low). While Kitsch may take some heat for JC, I have a feeling BS will not be on his shoulders as their are far bigger names associated with that project. Plus, as others pointed out, Kitsch already has upcoming projects. Even if he does bomb out, TV roles or modeling are still options.Not sure why you hate him - he seems somewhat innocuous as an actor thus far. He is trying to break out and it can be with any film. However, as with anything in Hollywood, one is only as good as their last film. Look at Cohen - tons of love for "Borat", but now people question his ability to bring in an audience. Some are even wondering if the Depp name is now tarnished.

[doctoru2]

I agree about men not putting down with an abusive relationship. But let's be frank here. Chris Brown is a big boy. What could possibly Rihanna do to justify getting beaten up like she did? I'll tell you: NOTHING. There's no way around it. And having someone trying to sort of justify that disgusts me and makes me really mad.

I agree with that - NOTHING can justfiy his actions. However, the question is why did she return? As you and I do not know all of the answers, we can only wish them the best. Just remember, we are people that would not tolerate such abuse from anyone. But many have had abuse their whole lives - for them, this is normal. Hence the therapy part.

[druv10]

iJackSparrow, Rth gave me a reply on OW of TA. Here is his quote.

Posted by Rth on 05 May 2012 - 10:09 PM in Box Office Discussion

druv10, on 05 May 2012 - 09:33 PM, said:

Rth can you tell us if the numbers is low balled or Nikke's Saturday number is correct?Last time I tool a proper look at this thread(very brief look) it was like 75 pages, now its like 152+ WTF.

Like I've stated before here (and many other times) hourly tracking is max of 50% of theatres and end of night is average 90-93% can be a lot lower depending, With yesterday and midnights it does throw a spaner in the works for working things out (part of it is due to figures going up and down while they work out what has and hasn't been included) and how every you extropolate data being couple of % can throw you off millions, that said whoever told Nikki around 65m initially(wasn't it) was either being super conservative or didn't understand the market 70 at least would have been more of an starting point.

From brief read I've done a lot seem to think 70m today would be low end well that would be about right 68-70 would more than likely be the at least what its going to do and could easily go beyond . Be interested to see what the next update says, sure there will be one soon

Edited May 20, 2012 by druv10

[tonytr87]

Depp had only one $100M grossing film prior to "Pirates" ("Sleepy Hollow"). Granted, most of Depp's films did not cost $250M, but that is hardly Kitsch's fault. Plus, it's not as if that budget was due to his salary (whch was probably rather low). While Kitsch may take some heat for JC, I have a feeling BS will not be on his shoulders as their are far bigger names associated with that project. Plus, as others pointed out, Kitsch already has upcoming projects. Even if he does bomb out, TV roles or modeling are still options.

Not sure why you hate him - he seems somewhat innocuous as an actor thus far. He is trying to break out and it can be with any film. However, as with anything in Hollywood, one is only as good as their last film. Look at Cohen - tons of love for "Borat", but now people question his ability to bring in an audience. Some are even wondering if the Depp name is now tarnished.

Innocuous is worse than being a horrible actor.

[Moviedweeb]

Regarding Kitsch, I really don't believe he is the reason JC or Battleship are bombing. Far from it. JC's marketing campaign was a failure of epic proportions and Battleship was doomed from the beginning. I believe JC is destined to be a cult classic.

Edited May 20, 2012 by MovieDweeb