filmscholar Posted July 22, 2012 Share Posted July 22, 2012 So you think it would have opened to about 185? I agree that sounds fair. But by that logic, with the ostensible incredible WOM this is getting, this SHOULD drop by 40-45% next weekend? Fair enough?I though personally 190 was in play. I did not think 207 was in play but I wouldn't call those people loonies, the hype was through the roof before it opened. Honestly 180-185 probably should of happen. But 163? Seeing that number just puts into context how many Americans said screw watching the movie this weekend. 163 is still massive and sold more tickets than DH2 but IMO it was a lock to beat DH2 OW before the shooting, the fact it may not happen is not only disappointing but sad cause I know the shooting had an effect. Remember the news of the shooting came out right as people were getting home from the midnights. As most Americans woke up Friday they heard the news so I think we are talking 10's of millions of lost from Familes deciding not to see the movie. I'm not talking fanboys and fans like us, I'm talking families who felt like going to a crowded theater with police presence wasn't worth it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted July 22, 2012 Share Posted July 22, 2012 Still, no one wants to answer my question? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cratos Posted July 22, 2012 Share Posted July 22, 2012 It's not nonsense. TDK had a perfect storm of interest to it. TDKR doesn't. I've said this 100 times this weekend. The tragedy had an effect, no doubt. But not as much as you guys think. There are many other factors as to why this is not doing what many thought it would.Well, it depends on how you define "not as much demand." Without the shooting, what would that equal? 170M? 175? If so, then yes, that would be nonsense. I think it's reasonable to believe that this would have made over 180M. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cratos Posted July 22, 2012 Share Posted July 22, 2012 Still, no one wants to answer my question?It's hard for me to answer since I don't think this movie has "incredible WOM." 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orestes Posted July 22, 2012 Share Posted July 22, 2012 Still, no one wants to answer my question?Kind of hard to say, there isn't exactly any precedence for this. Still, with summer weekdays, i think 45% is a bit low. If schools were still in session then I could see it. I think it'll probably drop closer to 50 though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redfirebird2008 Posted July 22, 2012 Share Posted July 22, 2012 So you think it would have opened to about 185? I agree that sounds fair. But by that logic, with the ostensible incredible WOM this is getting, this SHOULD drop by 40-45% next weekend? Fair enough?No. It did make $30m at midnight. Even TDK dropped 52.5% and it made $12m less at midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olive Posted July 22, 2012 Share Posted July 22, 2012 WOM is decent, should drop 50 -55% next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockNrollaDIM Posted July 22, 2012 Share Posted July 22, 2012 Ok. Doing my part and seeing this again today. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hasanahmad Posted July 22, 2012 Share Posted July 22, 2012 I'd like someone to answer my question, if you please.Do you think this WILL drop less than 45% next weekend, due to the shooting and the incredible WOM?Its legs will be strong whoever wont see it this wkd will see it at a later weekd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaz Posted July 22, 2012 Share Posted July 22, 2012 TDK had the perfect storm of interest and was also a BELOVED film. Why in the hell does that mean that the follow-up wouldn't show out opening weekend? I call BS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeeCee Posted July 22, 2012 Share Posted July 22, 2012 Baumer, please fix the spelling here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCS Posted July 22, 2012 Share Posted July 22, 2012 The BO total will just be more spread out as the people (mainly families) who missed out this weekend will just catch it down the line, so the legs will be better to make up for lower OW and the total will still be around $500M+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
acsc1312 Posted July 22, 2012 Share Posted July 22, 2012 I'd like someone to answer my question, if you please.Do you think this WILL drop less than 45% next weekend, due to the shooting and the incredible WOM?I honestly think it can Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fmpro Posted July 22, 2012 Share Posted July 22, 2012 Any new numbers out?full weekend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Adm56 Posted July 22, 2012 Share Posted July 22, 2012 I like movies...and I like it when movies I enjoy do well financially. But I've yet to reach the point where my emotional well being is directly tied to what a movie makes. It's not like I see any of that money! Woulda shoulda coulda...TDKR will make what it makes. I think the shooting drove people away but I also think that the number of people that will sit through a fairly depressing moving for close to 3 hours is a lot less than a lot of us might think. Recently superhero movies have made obvious attempts to mimic TDK in look and tone (TASM, Man of Steel). But Hollywood will be missing the boat again. People want to be entertained and have FUN. We'll be seeing a lot of Avengers clones soon.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CloneWars Posted July 22, 2012 Share Posted July 22, 2012 I think this will have a normal drop next weekend around 50% or so. I don't expect an amazing hold. Simply put, some people are put off from going to the theaters.Second, I don't know why were arguing about how much this impacted the gross. It seems everyone wants to say they are right. Those with low predictions say that this barely impacted the gross. Those with higher predictions claimed it impacted it a lot. The truth is, no one knows how much of an impact the shooting had. I think we should say the shooting had an impact and leave it at that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmscholar Posted July 22, 2012 Share Posted July 22, 2012 (edited) I think WOM is soild, not spectacular but soild. It's just the worst mass shooting in U.S. History is tied to the film, that naturally hurts WOM cause people aren't even going to give it a chance or wait for video so B, I can't tell what's going to happen on the 2nd Weekend. My Biggest fear is that this shooting is going to effect it's entire run. At this point Toy Story 3 is the floor, Sherk 2 is the celing. I don't see 3x mutiple from 163 OW. 450 is gone, 500 is long gone IMO. If he drops more than 55% or more next weekend then all hell is going to break loose cause 400 could be in danger. The good news is it doesn't have much competition for the next 2 weeks until Bourne. Edited July 22, 2012 by filmscholar 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted July 22, 2012 Share Posted July 22, 2012 Its legs will be strong whoever wont see it this wkd will see it at a later weekdSo how much do you think it will drop next weekend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack Nevada Posted July 22, 2012 Share Posted July 22, 2012 I think WOM is soild, not spectacular but soild. It's just the worst mass shooting in U.S. History is tied to the film.. Over 30 people were killed in the Virginia Tech massacre Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted July 22, 2012 Share Posted July 22, 2012 Baumer, please fix the spelling here. http://forums.boxoffice.com/index.php?/topic/1806-shawshank-redeption/Done, thanks for letting me know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
