China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30

[Mau]

How can the lion king, which had pretty similar opening weekend as frozen 2, less scote in maoyan and far more competition reach 150 USD in china, but its difficult for frozen 2 to reach  even 100 USD? 
also does anyone know if any of the songs or the sountrack are getting huge sales/downloads?

[Legion Again]

8 minutes ago, Mau said:

How can the lion king, which had pretty similar opening weekend as frozen 2, less scote in maoyan and far more competition reach 150 USD in china, but its difficult for frozen 2 to reach  even 100 USD? 
also does anyone know if any of the songs or the sountrack are getting huge sales/downloads?

Lion King just 120M. It benefitted from summer unlike F2.

[Mau]

8 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

Lion King just 120M. It benefitted from summer unlike F2.

Oh ok, my mistake, and what is your prediction for frozen 2 rn?

[keysersoze123]

1 hour ago, Mau said:

Oh ok, my mistake, and what is your prediction for frozen 2 rn?

@Olive said somewhere in 700-800m. Conservatively I would say expect 100m USD or around 703m Yuan. THis friday there are multiple releases that will take away shows as well. I dont know how many shows F2 would retain, but that would have material effect on its hold. generally very leggy movies show amazing weekdays that help in keeping more shows and have great weekend holds as well, Not sure F2 has done that so far. But let us wait and watch.

[fmpro]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

@Olive said somewhere in 700-800m. Conservatively I would say expect 100m USD or around 703m Yuan. THis friday there are multiple releases that will take away shows as well. I dont know how many shows F2 would retain, but that would have material effect on its hold. generally very leggy movies show amazing weekdays that help in keeping more shows and have great weekend holds as well, Not sure F2 has done that so far. But let us wait and watch.

With 6 new releases, 9,0 rating, huge monday drop and a tuesday 10-15% drop i could see sub 100 mill$ atp. Weekdays are just too low.

1,8-1,9 OW multiplier

[charlie Jatinder]

Trending is okayish so far, it was about 2.5x Ralph 2 on OD so almost there in weekdays but Ralph rebounded very well in week two, gonna be tough for Frozen 2, but it need to. If it do 2.47x Ralph from here, it will just cross $100mn, which is pretty tough.

	Frozen II	Ralph Breaks The Internet	Difference
Previews	¥1,162	¥423	2.75
Friday	¥73,350	¥28,623	2.56
Saturday	¥166,824	¥59,847	2.79
Sunday	¥132,326	¥46,776	2.83
Monday	¥23,532	¥9,548	2.46
Tuesday	¥20,000	¥8,055	2.48
Wednesday		¥6,860	0.00
Thursday		¥6,031	0.00
Week One		¥166,163	0.00
Friday		¥11,050	0.00
Saturday		¥33,785	0.00
Sunday		¥26,200	0.00
Monday		¥3,926	0.00
Tuesday		¥3,290	0.00
Wednesday		¥3,019	0.00
Thursday		¥2,611	0.00
Week Two		¥83,881	0.00
Rest		¥21,130
Total		¥271,174
Multiple		2.00

Edited November 26, 2019 by Jedi Jat

[POTUS 2020]

4 hours ago, fmpro said:

With 6 new releases, 9,0 rating, huge monday drop and a tuesday 10-15% drop i could see sub 100 mill$ atp. Weekdays are just too low.

1,8-1,9 OW multiplier

Friday will suck but expect a 130% bump again on Sat as it gets shows back.

It should clear 2x  with better than 15% drop today.

[charlie Jatinder]

23 minutes ago, POTUS 2020 said:

Friday will suck but expect a 130% bump again on Sat as it gets shows back.

It should clear 2x  with better than 15% drop today.

If Friday suck, 130% Sat bump don't mean much.

Say Friday is even equal to Tuesday, 130% bump will mean only 46mn Saturday. Need 200% bump on Saturday atleast if Friday grow well, if Friday is just 20mn, then even bigger increase needed.

Edited November 26, 2019 by Jedi Jat

[cdsacken]

Lion King was live action and animals. Hard to compare to cartoon. I wish Frozen did better as well 

 

Lion King at 1.6B ww absolutely underperformed. By 400m+

[PKMLover]

11 minutes ago, Jedi Jat said:

If Friday suck, 130% Sat bump don't mean much.

Say Friday is even equal to Tuesday, 130% bump will mean only 46mn Saturday. Need 200% bump on Saturday atleast if Friday grow well, if Friday is just 20mn, then even bigger increase needed.

Can it finish with $90M ?

$53M x 1.69 = $90M

[fmpro]

6 hours ago, POTUS 2020 said:

Friday will suck but expect a 130% bump again on Sat as it gets shows back.

It should clear 2x  with better than 15% drop today.

 

5 hours ago, Jedi Jat said:

If Friday suck, 130% Sat bump don't mean much.

Say Friday is even equal to Tuesday, 130% bump will mean only 46mn Saturday. Need 200% bump on Saturday atleast if Friday grow well, if Friday is just 20mn, then even bigger increase needed.

I agree with Jatinder here

[LegendaryBen]

How is Knives Out tracking in China?

[ymblcza]

8 hours ago, LegendaryBen said:

How is Knives Out tracking in China?

$10 - 15M

[A Marvel Fanboy]

Knives Out is going to make than more 15

[Gavin Feng]

Detective Chinatown 3, biggest title of 2020 CNY.

 

 

 

[LegendaryBen]

8 hours ago, ymblcza said:

$10 - 15M

I assume $10-15M USD Opening Weekend, right?

[fmpro]

28 minutes ago, LegendaryBen said:

I assume $10-15M USD Opening Weekend, right?

15 mill is way to high. Even 10 mill will be tough

[ymblcza]

1 hour ago, LegendaryBen said:

I assume $10-15M USD Opening Weekend, right?

Normal trend and WoM gives about $5-8M OW and $10-15M total, could be higher if WoM is great

[a2k]

Frozen2 Mon-Wed

23.5

19.6 (-16.6%)

16.2 (-17.3%)

 

426.5 cume removing all the presales (hope am right in doing that).

So week1 should be about 440 (~$62.5).

 

Is it heading for under 700 finish?

(current rating is 8.9)

Edited November 27, 2019 by a2k

[keysersoze123]

5 hours ago, a2k said:

Frozen2 Mon-Wed

23.5

19.6 (-16.6%)

16.2 (-17.3%)

 

426.5 cume removing all the presales (hope am right in doing that).

So week1 should be about 440 (~$62.5).

 

Is it heading for under 700 finish?

(current rating is 8.9)

depends on where the friday ends up at. I am thinking 50-60% increase can happen. But its losing showcount big time. How much we will know by end of day. it needs 150m 2nd weekend to keep 700m in play. Looks tough but you never know. last weekend it did pull a rabbit out the hat on saturday.  its number 3 on PS for friday but number 1 on saturday and so that is something for sure.

 

One thing about this weekdays is it had very tiny PS to final multi. normally weekdays used to do better than weekends sometime ago.