nevermore Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 9.0 on Maoyan 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Godzilla Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 9 minutes ago, nevermore said: 9.0 on Maoyan Yea Bumblebee is a good movie to compare to when it comes to box office in China with Alita. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KP1025 Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 I would be more conservative with the multiplier. Bumblebee essentially had no competition its entire run. Until Chinese New Year, the biggest movie it faced was Deadpool 2 with a $22 million OW. And that was on Bumblebee's 4th weekend. Alita is facing much tougher competition with a still strong TWE, HTTYD3 next weekend, and Captain Marvel the following weekend. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fake Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 17 minutes ago, KP1025 said: I would be more conservative with the multiplier. Bumblebee essentially had no competition its entire run. Until Chinese New Year, the biggest movie it faced was Deadpool 2 with a $22 million OW. And that was on Bumblebee's 4th weekend. Alita is facing much tougher competition with a still strong TWE, HTTYD3 next weekend, and Captain Marvel the following weekend. Agreed. I see a multiplier of 2-2.2x, so in order to have a shot at 1B, it needs to open with at least 450M. Right now i see it opening around 425M and finishing around 875-900M. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xiao2000 Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 Quote Where do you think TWE will likely end up? Around 4.6 - 4.7 B? I'm not sure. It really depends on how it holds this weekend. I do think 4.7B is very likely. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 The Wandering Earth Date Gross in ¥ ('000) Gross in $ Daily Change L/W Change Gross To Date Weekend Weekly Weekend Change Weekly Change Previews ¥13,154 $1,948,741 $1,948,741 05/02/2019 ¥188,471 $27,921,630 $29,870,370 06/02/2019 ¥258,318 $38,269,333 37.06% $68,139,704 07/02/2019 ¥339,810 $50,342,222 31.55% $118,481,926 $118,481,926 08/02/2019 ¥383,958 $56,882,667 12.99% $175,364,593 09/02/2019 ¥416,300 $61,765,579 8.58% $237,130,171 10/02/2019 ¥416,602 $61,810,386 0.07% $298,940,557 $180,458,631 11/02/2019 ¥338,783 $49,894,404 -19.28% 2460.34% $348,834,961 12/02/2019 ¥258,149 $38,131,315 -23.58% 36.57% $386,966,275 13/02/2019 ¥215,430 $31,868,343 -16.42% -16.73% $418,834,618 14/02/2019 ¥351,608 $51,936,189 62.97% 3.17% $470,770,807 $352,288,881 197.34% 15/02/2019 ¥181,164 $26,759,823 -48.48% -52.96% $497,530,630 16/02/2019 ¥232,805 $34,387,740 28.51% -44.33% $531,918,370 17/02/2019 ¥192,488 $28,432,496 -17.32% -54.00% $560,350,866 $89,580,059 -50.36% 18/02/2019 ¥99,637 $14,717,430 -48.24% -70.50% $575,068,296 19/02/2019 ¥112,268 $16,607,692 12.84% -56.45% $591,675,989 20/02/2019 ¥65,372 $9,727,976 -41.42% -69.47% $601,403,965 21/02/2019 ¥54,086 $8,048,512 -17.26% -84.50% $609,452,477 $138,681,669 -60.63% 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 At 1700, Alita: Battle Angel at ¥78mn ($11.5mn). The full day looking like ¥112-115mn ($17mn) Approx. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bishop54 Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 43 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said: At 1700, Alita: Battle Angel at ¥78mn ($11.5mn). The full day looking like ¥112-115mn ($17mn) Approx. So an opening weekend in the upper 50's looks to be the case? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marveldcfox Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 19 minutes ago, Bishop54 said: So an opening weekend in the upper 50's looks to be the case? Meh indeed 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peludo Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 It is a bit shocking (and fun) to see people saying Alita's opening is disappointing when China OW=2xDOM OW 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a2k Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 (edited) $55 looks like it for Alita ow if od is $17. With HTTYD3 and CapMarvel releasing back to back it will be very difficult to achieve 2.0x multiplier. 4 minutes ago, peludo said: It is a bit shocking (and fun) to see people saying Alita's opening is disappointing when China OW=2xDOM OW China total could still end up below dom though. Edited February 22, 2019 by a2k Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 41 minutes ago, Bishop54 said: So an opening weekend in the upper 50's looks to be the case? 60 certainly. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peludo Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 (edited) 12 minutes ago, a2k said: $55 looks like it for Alita ow if od is $17. With HTTYD3 and CapMarvel releasing back to back it will be very difficult to achieve 2.0x multiplier. China total could still end up below dom though. Do you think Alita will make more than $110m DOM? Edited February 22, 2019 by peludo Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a2k Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 (edited) 18 minutes ago, peludo said: Do you think Alita will make more than $110m DOM? Kingsman1 DOM was 3.07x it's FSSM President's Day ow in 2015. Alita did $8.7 on Thu and then $33.8 over FSSM. If it has a 3.0x multiplier off the FSSM then it gets to $8.7 Thu + $33.8*3.0 = $110.1 DOM HTTYD3 and Cap Marvel will compete for premium screens so that could cut it's run short somewhat. Don't think it will miss low-$100s DOM Edited February 22, 2019 by a2k Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 At 19:00 at ¥98mn Approx. Shall go for ¥115-120mn full day i.e. $17.5-17.75mn Approx. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gavin Feng Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 11 minutes ago, a2k said: $55 looks like it for Alita ow if od is $17. With HTTYD3 and CapMarvel releasing back to back it will be very difficult to achieve 2.0x multiplier. China total could still end up below dom though. HTTYD3 will not be a threat. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RealLyre Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stewart Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 13 minutes ago, RealLyre said: @Olive @Gavin Feng How big an effect (if any) could lowering ticket prices by 10 yuan have? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 19 minutes ago, feasby007 said: @Olive @Gavin Feng How big an effect (if any) could lowering ticket prices by 10 yuan have? Local films don't have such restriction I guess. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gavin Feng Posted February 22, 2019 Share Posted February 22, 2019 27 minutes ago, feasby007 said: @Olive @Gavin Feng How big an effect (if any) could lowering ticket prices by 10 yuan have? It won't make much difference. Still keeping $670M+ expectation. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...