China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30

[POTUS 2020]

2 hours ago, Fake said:

Added nearly 14M in the last hour (vs 17.5M for FF5 or 80%)..... if it can continue this pace... maybe it can push towards 280-290M, giving it a shot at 2B.... but let's see how the evening goes....

Now that summer has started tyically there is a 50% increase in the run rate from 6-9pm. FF8 did not increase due PS sell outs. TF5s runrate could stay close to flat part in sellouts and part in poor WoM. Straight 14m per hour begets 275m. If it increases to 21m p/h then 296m. 

Like FF8 and RE6 a 15% sat increase is the max. Could be flat like AC.  

OW will probably be under 900m. Just under 800m possible with 45/275/270/200m.  Total at or under 1800m for a 10% decline. Not bad compared to all other markets.

[ymblcza]

6pm 21681,RE6 was 15720 and finally did 21330.

[ymblcza]

2.85 seems the number it will be.

42/285/325/258=910, 2b looks more and more difficult.

Edited June 23, 2017 by ymblcza

[A Marvel Fanboy]

6 hours ago, POTUS said:

Now that summer has started tyically there is a 50% increase in the run rate from 6-9pm. FF8 did not increase due PS sell outs. TF5s runrate could stay close to flat part in sellouts and part in poor WoM. Straight 14m per hour begets 275m. If it increases to 21m p/h then 296m. 

Like FF8 and RE6 a 15% sat increase is the max. Could be flat like AC.  

OW will probably be under 900m. Just under 800m possible with 45/275/270/200m.  Total at or under 1800m for a 10% decline. Not bad compared to all other markets.

not to forget service fees

[Gavin Feng]

FRI estimated

 

before service charges

TF5  -  269.1m / 308.7m

 

after service chargers

TF5  -  289m / 330.8m

 

the fourth highest OD, before 2 Furious films and JTTW2

[keysersoze123]

 OD is not bad but douban rating is down to 4.9. That is crazy low for sure. 

[a2k]

6 minutes ago, Gavin Feng said:

FRI estimated

 

before service charges

TF5  -  269.1m / 308.7m

 

after service chargers

TF5  -  289m / 330.8m

 

the fourth highest OD, before 2 Furious films and JTTW2

 

nice number in the end. service charge certainly helped making it look more acceptable.

42 + 289 + 310 + 220 = 861m yuan ow sound right?

that's 126m usd ow.

[titanic2187]

12 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

 OD is not bad but douban rating is down to 4.9. That is crazy low for sure. 

will sink further for sure, hope it will impact its leg but i doubt

[NCsoft]

under TF4 in yuan a near certainty now?

[Blaze Heatnix]

28 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

 OD is not bad but douban rating is down to 4.9. That is crazy low for sure. 

 

 

Is that lower than Mummy's rating? Damn...

[POTUS 2020]

1 hour ago, a2knet said:

 

nice number in the end. service charge certainly helped making it look more acceptable.

42 + 289 + 310 + 220 = 861m yuan ow sound right?

that's 126m usd ow.

PS at 88m.  Its usually 4x PS day after 3x OD. Could reach 350m up 21%

[Gavin Feng]

 

				Rank	Title	Opening Day (million)
				1	Fate of the Furious	¥479.90	$69.72
				2	Furious 7	¥398.81	$64.24
				3	Journey to the West 2	¥368.83	$53.62
				4	Transformers: The Last Knight	¥330.76	$48.40
				5	Warcraft	¥301.71	$45.93
				6	The Mermaid	¥277.22	$42.19
				7	Resident Evil: The Final Chapter	¥229.55	$33.44
				8	Avengers: Age of Ultron	¥215.59	$34.73
				9	Star Wars: The Force Awakens	¥212.21	$32.19
				10	Lost in Hong Kong	¥210.22	$32.94
				11	Time Raiders	¥200.20	$30.09
				12	Captain America: Civil War	¥198.31	$30.52
				13	Transformers: Age of Extinction	¥195.26	$31.40

Edited June 24, 2017 by Gavin Feng

[a2k]

3 minutes ago, Gavin Feng said:

 

				Rank	Title	Opening Day (million)
				1	Fate of the Furious	¥479.90	$69.72
				2	Furious 7	¥398.81	$64.24
				3	Journey to the West 2	¥348.83	$50.71
				4	Transformers: The Last Knight	¥330.76	$48.40
				5	Warcraft	¥301.71	$45.93
				6	The Mermaid	¥277.22	$42.19
				7	Resident Evil: The Final Chapter	¥229.55	$33.44
				8	Avengers: Age of Ultron	¥215.59	$34.73
				9	Star Wars: The Force Awakens	¥212.21	$32.19
				10	Lost in Hong Kong	¥210.22	$32.94
				11	Time Raiders	¥200.20	$30.09
				12	Captain America: Civil War	¥198.31	$30.52
				13	Transformers: Age of Extinction	¥195.26	$31.40

 

that includes midnights, right?

[ymblcza]

22 hours ago, NCsoft said:

under TF4 in yuan a near certainty now?

The most likely case is slightly over TF4,need to wait for how the weekend goes.

EDIT:now it almost becomes a certain,Saturday increased just like Mummy and around 870m OW ,need about 2.27 multiplier.

Edited June 24, 2017 by ymblcza

[Fake]

TF5 running at 18M per hour right now (75% of FF5). If it continues this pace for the day, it will land at 310-320M Yuan.

[keysersoze123]

8 hours ago, Fake said:

TF5 running at 18M per hour right now (75% of FF5). If it continues this pace for the day, it will land at 310-320M Yuan.

 

just about to cross 300m. Great call. Looks like a 310m saturday. That is less than 10% increase. Sunday PS looks weak. Looks like 30% drop day to me !!! 

 

Weak competition ahead may be enough for just squeezing out a 2x multi. But it aint making 2B yuan for sure. 

[TalismanRing]

30 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

 

just about to cross 300m. Great call. Looks like a 310m saturday. That is less than 10% increase. Sunday PS looks weak. Looks like 30% drop day to me !!! 

 

Weak competition ahead may be enough for just squeezing out a 2x multi. But it aint making 2B yuan for sure. 

 

So, looking at a $125m opening?  $250m looks like the ceiling - but could easily wind up under Ultron or even JW

[NCsoft]

27 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

 

So, looking at a $125m opening?  $250m looks like the ceiling - but could easily wind up under Ultron or even JW

 

that would be shocking ! 

[Gavin Feng]

Definitely believe it will be out of top 3 of 2017.

 

When I woke up yesterday, I saw many negative reviews from TF fanboys who enjoyed TF4…

 

I can find so many good things from the worst film I ever saw after watching TF5...

[Gavin Feng]

SAT estimated

 

before service chargers

TF5  -  288.7m / 594.8m

 

after service chargers

TF5  -  310m / 638.3m > 632m = TF4 OW