China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30

[XXR vs XXR]

26 minutes ago, Gavin Feng said:

Don't overestimate or underestimate the power of chinese date before or after US debut. It can be good or not. The news that Aquaman can open on Dec.7 definitely make audience feel more excited, but it is also little harder for WB China to do their promotion job because they have to establish high expectation for local audience who don't really know much about AQM. Venom opened on Nov.9 in China, but it's surprising performance in the rest of the world make Chinese audience know what's more they are going to expect from this Sony film. 

 

But in this case, the audience knows the product very well and trusts the MCU at this point. I would think giving it to China first can only help. 

 

@LeoC It’s been over 24 hours now; can you give us an update on the reposts and likes of the announcement?

[Legion Again]

2 hours ago, peludo said:

Well, Endgame (182 minutes) is 22 minutes longer than IW (160). It could have some effect, but not as big as one could think at first.

If it does ultimately come in at 182, it will be a full 33 minutes longer than IW (149). That’s more than +20%

[Olive]

Friday Estimates

The Human Comedy 30.5M OD

Song of Youth 14.2M/154.6M, +5%

Durante la tormenta 13.65m/19.55m, expanding

Dumbo 12.8M OD, 46% lower than Nutcracker

More than Blue 10.5m/882.7m, -11.4%

Bohemian Rhapsody 3.54m/64.87m

Capt. Marvel 2.92m/1005m, -28%

 

[lorddemaxus]

4 minutes ago, Olive said:

Dumbo 12.8M OD, 46% lower than Nutcracker

 

Seems to have better reception than Nutcracker though. Does it have any chance at beating Nutcracker's final gross?

Edited March 29, 2019 by lorddemaxus

[UserHN]

39 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

Seems to have better reception than Nutcracker though. Does it have any chance at beating Nutcracker's final gross?

What is its Maoyan score?

[druv10]

7 minutes ago, UserHN said:

What is its Maoyan score?

8.9 plus the number movie 1 is tanking with only 6.5 score.

[XXR vs XXR]

9 minutes ago, UserHN said:

What is its Maoyan score?

8.9

[LeoC]

1 hour ago, VenomXXR said:

 

@LeoC It’s been over 24 hours now; can you give us an update on the reposts and likes of the announcement?

24 hours: 222k reposts, 58k comments, 258k likes. Weibo usually crumbles very quickly so the numbers won’t change much from now on. Very impressive numbers.

 

Also, Maoyan “want to see” increased from 288k to 508k (+220k) in the past 24 hours, three times the previous record of single-day increase (Us and Them: +75k the day before debut).

Edited March 29, 2019 by LeoC

[LordNox]

So Shazam will open to only 35M in China? So a 70M finish would be likely?

[XXR vs XXR]

11 minutes ago, LeoC said:

24 hours: 222k reposts, 58k comments, 258k likes. Weibo usually crumbles very quickly so the numbers won’t change much from now on. Very impressive numbers.

 

Also, Maoyan “want to see” increased from 288k to 508k (+220k) in the past 24 hours, three times the previous record of single-day increase (Us and Them: +75k the day before debut).

 

Do you know/remember what IW peaked at? I know it was over a million but don’t remember the exact number.

[LeoC]

9 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

 

Do you know/remember what IW peaked at? I know it was over a million but don’t remember the exact number.

1.15m in total.

Single day increase peaked at 45k.

[lorddemaxus]

20 minutes ago, LordNox said:

So Shazam will open to only 35M in China?

No

[LordNox]

1 minute ago, lorddemaxus said:

No

The tracking said 35M right. Why do you think Shazam will do better than the tracking predicts in China?

[pepsa]

14 minutes ago, LordNox said:

The tracking said 35M right. Why do you think Shazam will do better than the tracking predicts in China?

I haven't followed the China boxoffice in last week but even if Shazams ps woul be half of a $70m opener it won't mean it will only do $35m ps and OW don't scale at the same rate (most times they don't)

[lorddemaxus]

16 minutes ago, LordNox said:

The tracking said 35M right. Why do you think Shazam will do better than the tracking predicts in China?

Go to the presales thread. Tracking suggests better than 35 mil. Closer to 50 mil.

[Djsoke]

1 hour ago, LordNox said:

The tracking said 35M right. Why do you think Shazam will do better than the tracking predicts in China?

Tracking said 35-45m, so 35m would be the very low end of early expectations. On top of that, if buzz is good, tracking will trend up. 

Edited March 29, 2019 by Djsoke

[FlashMaster659]

deleted

Edited March 29, 2019 by FlashMaster659

[POTUS 2020]

20 hours ago, VenomXXR said:

 

@POTUS 2020 You're well versed at extrapolating data for China. What would you say is the lowest OW/total you foresee and the highest OW/total you foresee? 

I need data to extrapolate, as in PS.  Not sure what will happen.  Screens should increase by 20% but shows may not increase much per day vs IW, so $200m if it was a 3 day.  The 5 day throws everything off.  I assume 250m+(5day), but that's just an easy guess.

6 hours ago, peludo said:

Well, Endgame (182 minutes) is 22 minutes longer than IW (160). It could have some effect, but not as big as one could think at first.

Big effect.  5-6 shows per day instead of 6-7.

[john2000]

9 minutes ago, POTUS 2020 said:

I need data to extrapolate, as in PS.  Not sure what will happen.  Screens should increase by 20% but shows may not increase much per day vs IW, so $200m if it was a 3 day.  The 5 day throws everything off.  I assume 250m+(5day), but that's just an easy guess.

Big effect.  5-6 shows per day instead of 6-7.

still the 5 days will help it in my opinion at least ,and it will minimum the affect

Edited March 29, 2019 by john2000

[movieboner]

My bold prediction for Endgame

5 day OW: $300 million

Total: $600 million